Friday May 2 2025 Forecast (7:33AM)

75 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 2-6)

We’re in an unsettled weather pattern, but that term “unsettled” is often misunderstood to mean days of rain, or miserably cool weather, etc. Clarification: Unsettled weather can describe changeable weather with several “systems” – high pressure / low pressure / fronts – impacting sensible weather conditions. This is also typical of springtime here in New England, whether in a progressive pattern where weather systems move right along, or a blocking pattern where they are in less of a hurry to move much. Over the next 5 days, we’ll see our set-up shift from progressive to blocking, and endure some changes that go along with that transition. Some of you may have been awoken by rumbles of thunder, or in some cases, crashes of it if it the triggering lightning was close enough, as a warm front moved through from west to east, bringing showers and thunderstorms with it. These have exited over the ocean, and our day today will feature clouds breaking for sun at times, except clouds more stubborn near the South Coast with a stronger direct low level moisture feed off the cooler ocean waters. A weak trough of low pressure approaching from the west can trigger isolated showers and a very low risk of a thunderstorm any time this afternoon or evening, but coverage on these is expected to be quite low. We stay in this “warm sector” with a southwesterly air flow through Saturday. It does appear we can make it through the morning and midday hours with minimal shower threat, but I cannot rule a few stray passing ones out completely – so keep this in mind if you have outdoors in your plans (sports, walks, yard sale hopping, etc.). We will have to keep a closer eye out for the development of showers and thunderstorms, particularly west of I-95, during the afternoon hours. A few of these could be strong with an isolated severe thunderstorm not out of the question. These would likely weaken / fall apart as they migrated closer to the coast late in the day. Part of the trigger of these will be an approaching cold front. The question the last couple of days has been what the timing of that front will be. It’s been a tough one to answer, but I do think it will slide southward across the region on Sunday, with a shower threat. Also, the timing of that front is critical to Sunday’s temperature forecast. A slower-moving front would allow Sunday to be a warmer day for a while with a cool-down coming later. A little quicker movement on the front will take the warmth out of the picture and Sunday will be a cooler day overall. I’m going for a slightly slow, but not too slow movement, so kind of a split between those 2 potentials. This is part of the evolution of blocking which will then put a closed upper level low over the northeastern US early next week, with cooler, mainly cloudy weather. The next question to answer will be how much rain to expect early in the week. There are some indications that eastern Canadian high pressure – part of the blocking pattern – will be strong enough to keep most rain to our south Monday, but may not quite have that ability to do so during Tuesday. So for now, I’m leaning toward less rain for “day 4” and more for “day 5”. Don’t hang your hat on this outlook yet though, because it’s not high confidence, and updates may very well result in notable adjustments in expectations for those days, but that’s the way it goes here in springtime.

TODAY: Clouds break for sun at times – least sun South Coast / most sun north of I-90. A stray shower and very slight chance of a thunderstorm, especially late-day, west of I-95 / north of I-90. Highs ranging from 55-62 Cape Cod / Islands to 73-80 inland with warmest north of I-90 / west of I-95. Wind S to SW increasing to 5-15 MPH with a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A shower possible early. Fog patches. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partial sun but lots of clouds. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will favor areas west of I-95 during the afternoon, with a few storms possibly strong to (isolated) severe. Highs 58-65 Cape Cod, 66-73 remainder of South Coast region, 74-81 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. Lows 50-57. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. Highs 58-65. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain, favoring southern areas. Lows 48-55. Highs 55-62. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT / TUESDAY: Cloudy. Better chance of rain in all areas. Lows 46-53. Highs 53-60. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 7-11)

While there are indications of blocking continuing, enough of a shift in features should result in a drying trend. Temperatures start out below normal then moderate, more aggressively inland than near the coast.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 12-16)

Current indications are a transition from blocking to progressive, but trough position with a tendency for Canadian cool shots. Brief wet weather interrupting an overall dry pattern.

75 thoughts on “Friday May 2 2025 Forecast (7:33AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Was woken by distance thunder about 5:20am.

    That was an impressive mid level warm frontal passage.

  4. From the Mt Washington Auto Road sensors …..

    At the summit, its 45.9F

    At 4,000 ft, its 55.6F

    At 3,300 ft, its 40.1F

    Inland areas, if/when that sun comes out later today and the wind comes around to SW and the atmosphere mixes, those temps are going to zoom up. Really warm above us.

  5. Thanks TK.

    1,162 ❄️

    I will resume “count” on November 1, 2025. 🙂

    Meanwhile I am recovering from knee replacement surgery. I’m ok but in a world of pain after a recent overnight stay at the Brigham Hospital. A long road to recovery. Not likely to be posting much anytime soon.

    3. Wishing you a very speedy recovery, Philip. Thank you for your daily snow updates.

    2. Marginal risk for Boston????? Yeah sure and I’m Santa Claus.
      NO WAY in Boston. Not a chance!

  8. Thanks, TK!

    A few claps and low rumbles of thunder and a very quick downpour at around 4:40.

  10. Philip, hang in there for the first week after surgery, as best as you can.

    My wife had her knee replacement surgery about 5 years ago.

    I recall her surgical pain being very high for a few to a handful of days after the procedure.

    But, one thing sticks in my mind, she said while very painful, the pain she experienced pre-procedure from the deteriorating knee was gone and it was the surgery pain she was feeling.

    The surgery pain, for her started to ease after a few to handful of days and then, the rehab starts, increasing range of motion and all that other stuff and things get even better.

    That replaced knee is now so good for her. Poor thing though, she thinks her other knee may need replacement soon.

    Hang in there Philip, the pain of the next few days will be worth it. Good luck !!

  12. I think this weekend will make it 9 out of the last 11 Saturdays with some level of rain…

  13. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I was awakened by thunder around 5ish this morning. Did not look at the time.

    Currently 56

    Ocean temperature: 46.9 (Boston buoy)

  14. Thank you, TK. CRASHES of Thunder describes this area very well around 4:00 am. The thunder was loud and odd sounding. At first I thought it was some sort of military plane engine noise . My lightning pro had many strikes surrounding and close to on top of us.

  15. As forecasted, the dps have crept up into the mid 50s.

    Inside, but I’m guessing the air is feeling noticeably different than yesterday.

      1. Humidity rises, energy level tanks…

        Happily, I will adapt eventually. 🙂

      1. I agree with you overall. I could see in SE NH and SW ME, if their winds are SW, them having enough warmth to maintain instability, that the could hold together.

        But yes, Boston to Cape Cod and south coast, by late afternoon, the indirect seabreeze will have cooled the boundary layer and ease instability.

  20. As many like to do in November, have a winter outlook, I like to think about a summer prediction in May.

    I don’t know what to think because take TWC, for example. As part of their look into early summer, they predicted below avg temps in April and the northeast largely ended up with +2F anomolies.

    So, kind of like the models, if your monthly outlooks don’t initialize right, then the pattern you believe is coming can’t be correct which tanks your future month’s outlooks.

    Somehow, I think the sun still being near solar max is going to produce a hot summer, but that is just a guess. I have to look back and see if there is a connection btwn where we are in a solar cycle and temps during summer.

    But, 2012 and 2013 were hot summers and that’s just before the last solar max. Conversely, 2015 was an avg to slightly below avg temp summer locally and that was just after solar max, as we are presently.

    1. I roll my eyes everytime I see TWC temperature monthly outlook. Not reliable; it’s just click bait.

  23. I agree with the update from the SPC. Once those storms hit the marine layer that is a thunderstorms kryptonite as the airmass will be stable. Just stepping outside I could feel a little bit of mugginess.

    1. Just plain stupid. I get we should save money with fraud etc.. but this is just a hacksaw to something that needed needles.

  26. Modern Lovers is one of the most influential bands to ever come out of Massachusetts. Wrote masterful songs in the 1970-72 timeframe. You’ll hear a bit of Velvet Underground (another exceptionally influential band) but also new wave and punk before they were even named as such. What makes all of this all the more impressive is that Jonathan Richman is a Natick native. Love this song and video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNxTJYsegKU

    2. Practically no-one was doing this kind of music in 1972. Long before the Sex Pistols and others, Modern Lovers cranked out raucous, somewhat discordant songs like She Cracked: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJfPGgr8080

      Very influential band in the UK. Covered by the Sex Pistols, Siouxsie and the Banshees and others. But unlike the British punk bands, Richman et al. weren’t about tearing down society. If anything, they lamented some of the craziness around them. And unlike their British followers, they weren’t really into monetizing what they had essentially invented.

    2. It’s noticeable for sure.

      Big difference btwn HS and Middle school campus and our neighborhood.

      2 miles inland it’s in the mid/upper 70s and in my neighborhood with a seabreeze, it’s about 65F.

      I thought based on school temps I was going to try the AC for the first time, but nope, it’s very nice close to the ocean.

  28. 84° her at Siesta Key 63° dp. Water is up to 78°.. . Loks like all done with cold fronts till late October.

  30. 84° her at Siesta Key 63° dp. Water is up to 78° in The GULFOF MEXICO!.Looks like all done with cold fronts till late October.

  31. 77 dp 60 here while it is 68 at the airport and 63 at Marshfield.

    81 at Norwood.

  32. East wind has arrived Temp drppoed from 77 to 70 6 and dp 61 to 57. both still falling.

  33. Thanks Tk . Awesome day doing estimates around town with sunny & feeling warm @ 77 now . Hang in there Philip

    1. Once that surface warm front got through, it was off to the races, except where the wind still comes off the water, but that’s typical anyway. 🙂

      1. Tk please message Mother Nature as we need dry weather for start up next weekend

  34. Thanks TK.

    Made it to 78 here in Coventry and now down to 75 with darkening skies as some storms are popping to the west.

    Philip, hope you have a speedy recovery!

    1. Still blue sky here. But I see storms on radar down your way. Did you have the storms early morning.

        1. I suspect you would have although I’ve slept through some too. It was loud and rolling and continuous

  35. Thank you all for your best wishes! 🙂

    I have had chronic knee pain for the past few years now and the past few months have been brutal. I have a post surgical appointment with my surgeon next Thursday.

    1. I’m 54 in July Philip & I’ve been bone on bone for years now & I need a new right knee. The doctors don’t like to do it on younger folks unless absolutely necessary.

  36. Wind came around to SW in eastern Marshfield in the last hour and we hit mildest temp of the day at 72F. It’s now 70F

    1. I love it. That’s my Boston….

      Hard to tell since it goes so quickly bu might be some late 50s cars but then they could be years old. The sort or muscle car, the Plymouth Road Runner came out in 69 I believe. I had a sticker in the rear window of my Mach I that said…beep beep your a$$ although it didn’t have the $ signs 👿

  39. Thanks TK! I am Minnesota for an event and played golf this morning. The temp was 45 with wind chills in the 30s under a very gray sky. If this is the upper low that is heading East prepare yourselves because it is chilly! It was the coldest I ever felt playing golf.

  40. Vicki, indeed there are a lot of interesting cars in the Roadrunner video. I believe it’s from the year I was born: 1964. I noticed a Citroen Ami, of which only a few thousand were sold in the U.S.

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