DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 13-17)
Here’s your better late than never update from WHW on this Friday the 13th! Well, we’re about to have a little weather good luck, and something I was anticipating. And that is, having most of our weekend spared of wet weather. Before I get to that, today will be a day governed by high pressure but also by a lot of cloud cover and occasional sun as mid level moisture streams along on a west northwest flow aloft. High pressure will situate itself in southeastern Canada and hold into and through the weekend. It gives just enough ground so that low pressure passing to our south off the Mid Atlantic Coast will produce some wet weather in our region during the first approximately 12 hours of Saturday. Don’t take that too literally though. Start time, end time, length of rainfall – all TBD by location. General idea is a broken band of mid level convective showers will be initiated around or shortly after midnight oriented west-to-east somewhere in the vicinity of I-90, maybe a bit south or a bit north. This slides eastward and blossoms into a more general rain area over the region that will already be in the process of ending from northwest to southeast a couple hours after sunrise, so that by midday it’s a done deal pretty much everywhere, other than potentially lingering right on the South Coast a little longer into afternoon before departing. After this the high pressure area to our northeast is going to be strong enough to give us rain-free weather for the remainder of the weekend, with limited sunshine possible as we move through Saturday afternoon and some partial sun as well on Sunday. Previously, I had a shower / drizzle threat in Sunday’s forecast which I feel safe removing. The trade off to this is having cooler than average temperatures since our dry air is coming from high pressure where it is with an air flow off the Atlantic. Monday, that high will slip southward and our air flow will begin a shift to more southerly. You won’t notice it much at first, but a subtle warm-up will begin, although still with a lot of cloud cover in the sky. I do think we do escape any threat of rain on Monday too. Tuesday’s weather does look a little more unsettled as a more established southerly flow is present and a warm front moves into the region, presenting the chance of showers and thunderstorms – details TBD as we get closer to that.
TODAY: Cloud / sun mix with emphasis on the clouds. Some high altitude smoke above that. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind N under 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Showers develop late evening / overnight then steadier rain toward dawn. Lows 53-60. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy start with rain ending northwest to southeast in the morning. Lots of clouds / breaks of sun afternoon with some lingering showers possible South Coast. Highs 64-71, coolest coast. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers possible. Highs 65-72, coolest coastal areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 62-69. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 67-74. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 18-22)
This 5 day period features the final days of spring and first days of summer, as the solstice occurs at 10:54 p.m. on June 20! What will the weather do for the change of seasons? Well, I think it will act fairly appropriately. A warmer, more humid southwesterly air flow with a few shower and thunderstorm chances will be with us for midweek (June 18-19). Right now I think a frontal boundary can bring a heavier batch of showers and storms through at some point June 20, followed by a warm and mainly dry June 21-22 weekend.
DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 23-27)
Overall pattern features west northwest flow here and a series of fronts / disturbances, which can bring a few showers and thunderstorms. Most of the time though – rain-free. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.
A pretty fab Friday underway!
Initially we had a pretty thick blanket of clouds (mid level lift) over northern and eastern MA, which has thinned out now. This is part of the “sun/cloud” mix that I indicated for today. My discussion yesterday mentioned there would be more high and mid level cloud cover in the sky today compared to the last 2 days. Well, there you have it. But we’ll see our share of sun too.
Air is comfy! A light (generally) northerly breeze. Coastal sea breeze should develop by noon or shortly after. Dew points sitting in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Pretty nice for mid June!
Let’s me comment early that you post late 🙂 Feel better…
Good morning and thank you TK.
Took me to my 5th try to get today’s WORDLE. Not too good.
Oh well.
Thank you, TK. Hope you feel better quickly snd you dr has some answers
68 here now after a low of 63. It felt pretty chilly this morning.
Up to 68 from 58. 56 DP. Blue sky with a few whispy clouds and a thin smoke layer.
The air feels so nice right now. I want to take a deep breath, but that will just trigger my cough.. 😉
Slow & easy ones…
Doctor at 4:30PM.
Thanks TK !
Good health to everyone especially TK and Tom.
Thanks Robert !! …. and also to Joshua.
Thanks TK
Feel better
We have struggled up to 69 and a bit more. Briefly made it to at least 69.5
Very slow warm up today.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct-imp&rh=2025061312&fh=150&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
GFS still on a one brutal hot day projection, in 6 days,.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-imp&rh=2025061300&fh=162&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Euro has gotten warmer. It was 75-82F yesterday for this time frame and the 00z projection is now mid and upper 80s
both models have > 70F dps around next Thursday.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=sfct-imp&rh=2025061300&fh=162&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
12z GDPS for next Thursday,
From this afar, it appears a small piece of western US heat breaks and off and makes a 24=48 hr run at the northeast.
If this pattern continues, then how hot we get will depend on cold front passage time and/or cloud debris from previous convection.
But the potential seems there for a scorcha if 20-22C (850 mb) temps pass overhead.
NO THANK YOU!!!!
12z euro next Thursday.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-imp&rh=2025061312&fh=150
Dps
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2025061312&fh=150&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Euro again, a week from tomorrow.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct-imp&rh=2025061312&fh=198&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Tropical storm Dalila. A few of these have formed off the southern coast of Mexico.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac
Only basin that’s been active. Ironically last year they had their latest named storm on record (July 4).
NW Pacific latest start since 1984.
Dead quiet Atlantic.
Keep it that way all summer long. 🙂
Thank you, TK. I hope you’re getting some rest (and relief from the cough) while you await the appointment.
Did you play Wordle today. JPD? It was a 5/6 day again for me
5/6 for me as well. 🙂
You inspired me to go back and play after a few months hiatus – got it in 3 today. My most frequent is 4 guesses, followed by 3
Played WORLDE as well and got it first guess.
First guess!!
I thought I was lucky with this:
https://ibb.co/qYmpdj3Y
yup, that was an easy one. yesterdays much more difficult.
I was on a streak but had some trouble with both yesterdays and today’s.
yiur wirdle resukts pretty damn good. Curious to know what your starting word was.
You’re WORDLE results were excellent!!!
Curious to know what you used for the 1st word?
thanks
Today I started with “later”.
Thanks. I started with bread. not so helpful. I i got the B in correct position and the E out of position. Something, but I’m still new to this.
Wow. Very impressive
Nice. I’ll have to try worldle.
zi like Worlde
Oh – now I see. Doh!
You’re talking about a different game than I am.
🙂 🙂
Was up to 74 here, but now down to 68 due to sea breeze.
Hope you’re feeling better soon, TK, and that the doctor has prescribed a good cough suppressant for you! I have one request – in summers past, I feel like you’ve included the DP in your daily forecasts. Will you be adding them again this summer? I find it incredibly helpful. Thank you 🙂
Thinking of you also TK and hoping your appointment gave you both answers and a positive treatment
Hot up in the Yukon Alaska mid to upper eighties this weekend up there.
It is a perfect night to sit on the deck. The Beach Boys on the Roam were accompanied by the very loud hoot of a barred owl. Doesn’t get better than that.
JP Dave, there’s an extra letter in your email address, causing your messages to go into moderation. I fixed it for now, but I have a feeling it may happen again. Double check it when you can. 🙂
Double checking…
Looks OK to me now.
This one was fine, maybe it was just one-time.
Disappointed in many media, yet again (gee what a surprise).
“First Ever Heat Advisory Issued For Alaska” .. made to sound like something happening there that has never happened before. Wrong. High temp breaking 85 at Fairbanks is most certainly above normal for mid June, but that’s not even the point.
The point is, it was written in NWS guidelines that heat advisories were not part of Alaska weather statements, which I don’t get, considering how many times they’ve been over 90 in Fairbanks in the past.
Recently an ADMINISTRATIVE change was made to allow them to be issued, so they issued one for the upper 80s this week. Headlines were clearly written for dramatic affect and clicks / shares. Although I will give kudos to a few outlets that did point out this was more adminstrative-related than weather-related.
In case you’re curious, Fairbanks has reached or exceeded 90 degrees on 46 occasions since records began there.
• June 26, 1915: 95°
• June 23, 1916: 90°
• June 24, 1916: 90°
• June 25, 1916: 92°
• July 14, 1918: 90°
• July 15, 1918: 90°
• July 16, 1918: 91°
• July 27, 1919: 91°
• July 7, 1923: 91°
• August 26, 1923: 90° (latest on record)
• June 11, 1937: 91°
• June 19, 1937: 91°
• June 24, 1942: 91°
• May 28, 1947: 90° (earliest on record)
• June 17, 1948: 90°
• June 18, 1948: 90°
• July 16, 1951: 90°
• July 25, 1955: 93°
• June 20, 1958: 92°
• July 5, 1958: 90°
• June 18, 1967: 91°
• June 14, 1969: 90°
• June 15, 1969: 96° (highest on record)
• June 20, 1969: 91°
• July 10, 1975: 94°
• July 11, 1975: 94°
• August 1, 1976: 90°
• July 30, 1977: 90°
• June 25, 1983: 91°
• July 5, 1986: 91°
• July 6, 1986: 90°
• June 21, 1987: 90°
• June 22, 1987: 92°
• July 4, 1990: 90°
• June 20, 1991: 91°
• June 21, 1991: 94°
• June 29, 1992: 91°
• June 13, 1994: 90°
• August 4, 1994: 91°
• August 5, 1994: 93°
• July 8, 2009: 91°
• August 15, 2010: 91°
• June 25, 2013: 92°
• June 26, 2013: 92°
• June 9, 2017: 90°
• July 24, 2023: 90°
Fully responsible media would include that information in their story about the brutally hot upper 80s and the first heat advisory EVER. 😉
Baked Alaska, anyone? 😉
Agreed !!
I also saw what you stated that the NWS would be issuing heat advisories in Alaska, when appropriate, going forward.
Disappointed too that, this context was not provided within the story.
And for me, this is frustrating, because I do believe that in the micro second context of time, over the last hundred years or so, the earth has and continues to slowly warm, but even making that opinion faces pushback because of stuff like mentioned above.
You are totally correct.
Working on the update…
I actually slept more than 2 hours at a stretch!
I have a long way to go, but the meds are already starting to work…
New post…