Saturday August 16 2025 Forecast (7:39AM)

104 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 16-20)

High pressure shifts offshore today, but dew points remain in check, and it will be a nice day by mid August standards. While starting with sun in most of the region (exceptions are a stratus deck in southern RI and patchy Cape Cod clouds), we’ll end up with a sun/cloud mix, both from the development of fair weather clouds, a couple of which can become unfair and deliver an isolated shower or a thunderstorm well north and west of Boston later today, and the advection of high and mid level cloud patches ahead of an approaching warm front, which will pass through the region tonight, introducing a southerly air flow and higher dew point air. This sets us up for a warm (coast) to hot (inland) and more humid Sunday. Thunderstorms will probably pop up in isolated to scattered fashion later Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. I don’t think the conditions are favorable enough for a sweeping squall line with this frontal boundary as it passes through, but more scattered clusters of showers and thunderstorms over a few hours from mid afternoon to early evening – northwest to southeast. We’ll have to keep an eye out for an isolated severe storm or two. Behind the front comes a cooler, drier air mass for the start of next week. Cloudiness becomes more abundant later Tuesday or Wednesday, including at least a slight shower threat from the remnants of an upstream disturbance moving in from the northwest, but this does not look like a big deal for our region at this point. Meanwhile, Hurricane Erin is undergoing rapid intensification and will be a strong one as it makes a northward and eventually northeastward turn over the next several days. By “day 5” (Wednesday), the hurricane will be passing between the US East Coast and Bermuda, more likely slightly closer to Bermuda than the US East Coast. Impact from Erin will be limited to rough surf and large swells which will begin to increase along our coast during the first few days of next week.

TODAY: Fog patches early morning. Low clouds southern RI early morning. Patchy clouds Cape Cod early to mid morning. Sunshine elsewhere morning. A sun/cloud mix this afternoon. Chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm, mainly in southwestern New Hampshire or north central Massachusetts late in the day. Highs 75-82 coast, 82-89 inland. Dew point 50s to near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH / coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Areas of fog especially near South Coast. Lows 62-69. Dew point rises into 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms probable. Highs 85-92 except cooler South Coast. Dew point rises to near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 57-64. Dew point falls to 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 73-80. Dew point remains in 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low elevation fog patches. Lows 52-59. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs 72-79. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few showers. Lows 56-63. Highs 71-78. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 21-25)

Fair weather August 21-22, coolest coast with onshore flow, also large swells / surf along coast as Hurricane Erin makes its closest pass, but well offshore. August 23-25 features higher humidity and a few shower / t-storm chances, but no indications of widespread, lasting wet weather.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 26-30)

Pattern indications are for a more northwesterly air flow in the region. Some up and down temps, but trend for cooler. Shower potential with a frontal passage around August 28.

104 thoughts on “Saturday August 16 2025 Forecast (7:39AM)”

    1. Thanks for sharing this – amazing!

      Until Page jettisons the pick near the end, he’s doing a lot of what’s called hybrid picking. He uses both the flat pick and the remaining free fingers. Richard Thompson is the master of this technique.

  4. Amusing tweet containing a video clip of a man with a Scottish (Glaswegian) accent talking weather. While the man is talking about weather, it caught the attention of people because he is black and Scottish. Yes, there are black Scots, despite what some of the people in the comments say. https://x.com/BustedWench/status/1956260185426813148

    And here are some Scottish words and phrases referencing weather:
    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/scotland-now/25-scottish-words-phrases-weather-27743846

  6. Re: Wordle
    FAIL for me today. I had a 20 day streak of getting the word. Bound to happen sooner or later.

  7. Thanks TK !

    Erin’s pressure under 940 mb.

    It’s dropped 40-50 mb in about 24 hrs, I believe.

    2. Intensifying rather rapidly to say the least!!!
      Would not surprise me if it becomes a Cat 5 even if only briefly.

    1. That is very nearly a CAT 5 now

      This classification is for general conditions. Each hurricane will vary some, but this gives a good idea of the category based on
      the central pressure

      https://ibb.co/1Yj6mTky

      CAT 5 begins at about 919 mb. Currently at 926 which would be a very strong CAT4.

            1. Petty was one of those who right out of the gate was just excellent. Songwriting, delivery both in-studio and live. Just not many better at it than he was. You may or may not be a fan of his (I am!) but it’s hard (and inaccurate) to deny the talent. 🙂

              1. You couldn’t tell I was/am a fab of his? Yup, I am.
                Never had the pleasure of seeing him live.

      1. Yeah, Figured. But even so, that track is still due West. I guess, to this point, it was pretty much how it was modeled. Just looking for a surprise is all. 🙂

        1. The only surprise (which wasn’t a complete surprise because meteorologists were watching for it) was the quicker intensification beyond the “official forecast”. There won’t be any track surprises at this point. 🙂

          1. I know. I am realistic about that. But even so, I keep looking to see IF anything changes. Bad habit, I suppose. 🙂

  12. A couple days ago, one of the forecasters at NHC mentioned the distinct possibility that the strength of Erin may be under-forecast. What happens here is that Erin’s essential circulation is very small, over the warmest water anywhere around, and with ideal atmospheric conditions above. This makes it very easy for rapid, under-forecast intensification. No models had it, and a lot of forecasters (myself included) sometimes find it very hard to “go against” the best guidance for such events.

  15. It feels like we’re in a period of time, last several years, with rapidly intensifying hurricanes and not just 25 mb in 24 hrs. Heck, Erin may have dropped 25 mb in 6 hrs this morning which was preceded by 40 mb in 12 hrs overnight.

    The Maritimes drought.

    Temps across the country this summer weren’t much above average, if any, but, I’ve seen some posts out there about humidity and measured water vapor this summer being towards the top levels since they tracked that. Obviously, it’s harder to warm extremely moist air than drier air.

    Certainly running below 80s, 90s and 00’s median ice levels in the arctic. Another active fire season in Canada and on and on and on ……

    1. Humidity levels flux, and it doesn’t have to be “hot” summer to be a “humid” one. The media, especially social media, has blown that way out of proportion, so beware of what you see out there.

      Example: Earlier this year when the “first ever excessive heat warning” for whatever part of Alaska went viral and it was talked about like the temps there were never even close to the range they were going to be, when in reality…………… they were going to be in the 80s, which is not even close to unheard of, and also the LITTLE fact that the NWS literally just changed the criteria to start issuing those by that name there. Well, gee……………. See what I mean? Sensationalism knows no bounds, and I’m totally sick of it.

      You want to know why? Social media (not all of it, but a big part of it) has devalued science and the work of scientists so much. There’s a plethora of bullshit out there now that’s worded in such a way to catch anybody who isn’t fully paying attention, and us (the actual scientists) spend so much of our time “undoing” the misinformation these clowns are spreading. And many platforms are doing NOTHING to combat it, so the spread just accelerates. It’s not right. And I have a completely valid reason to be pissy about it. 😉

      Many of these measurements are in their infancy to this degree, so we don’t have a lot to compare to. It’s a lot easier to set a record with something that’s been actively and accurately kept track of for 20 years vs. 100+. That’s the issue, a lot of this stuff talked about should be with a caveat about PERIOD OF RECORD and SAMPLE SIZE. Otherwise, it’s inaccurate and/or incomplete science.

  16. For any football fans, yeah the game doesn’t count but Pats / Vikings pre-season game is on Ch 4 now (1:00 p.m.).

  17. I’m already seeing social media hype about a follow up hurricane hitting Florida and the Gulf. I CANNOT STRESS THIS ENOUGH. IT’S MORE OF THE SAME BULLCRAP, based on ONE run of the GFS (aka, the hurricane maker-upper). If you see anybody share it, correct them. Thanks. 🙂

      1. They just won’t stop. And the sad thing is, I, and other mets can’t just ignore it. It’s having a significant negative impact on what we try to do. You can see that now in that not only local TV meteorologists, but the NWS has gotten involved in warning about sharing posts from those sources.

        1. I wonder if the solution is to better educate the general public as to who to listen to.

          Sadly, the sensationalist posters have enough likes and followers seemingly to keep them going.

          To many examples in life today of following the loud and most extreme and not the most educated and most level headed.

          2. That’s 100% part of the solution, and the best one, in all honesty, but the ability for the misinformation to spread makes even doing that very, very difficult.

          3. I absolutely agree about educating. But after correcting, I block. People will believe what they want….sadly, it’s often the sensationalized they want. Like bullies, these folks want attention.

      1. Yup, the one that will be in New England on the next run, the Carolinas the run after that, non-existent the run after that, then back to Florida, Texas, NYC, the moon, and Omaha Nebraska.

      2. https://photos.app.goo.gl/1HtyXu48bN99hsgg7

        By the way, I’m not going to always shy away from calling out some of these people by name on social media so you can be on the lookout for the things they post and let other people know.

        This particular poster on X is known for tropical hype and winter storm hype.

        The link above takes you to a post from three days ago.

        1. To add to that, the 12z operational ECMWF is a western outlier again and the same person posted it and basically verified their “forecast” that Erin is going to do this. Nothing like verifying something before it takes place, eh?

  19. Mission 10, recon plane mission, just took off, is an upper level dropsonde mission.

    Yay !

    Oh, I have no doubt of the offshore track and then the sharp right turn.

    With that said, still helpful if they sample north and northwest of the hurricane to get the best model handling of the ridge and its strength or lack there of.

    At its simulated closest point, it’s probably only 2 or 3 hundred miles southeast of the outer banks and you don’t want a day 3 or less sudden surprise for that area before a sharp right turn.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&rh=2025081612&fh=120

    Latest 12z euro, not terribly far offshore of the outer banks.

    1. The operational ECMWF has been struggling with this, and with the pattern over North America, during the last several days.

      Not sure what’s up…

  20. Only pre-season, of course, but Patriots look pretty good in this game so far.

      1. The full recurve is in progress, but with wobbles, which are common for a hurricane that rapidly intensified (or is still doing so).

  24. Looks like the wind field will expand quite a bit as it begins to spin down in three or four days.

    1. Excellent, more sondes further north and west.

      I assume this data will be in the 00z runs and we’ll see if these occasional western outliers that come within a couple hundred miles of the Outer Banks stop.

  29. It’s important to note that the mean ensemble track of combined GEFS and EPS (Super-Ensemble) is well east of the tracks of the operational runs of the ECMWF (and UKMET).

    Erin’s intensification ceased about 5 hours ago and it will probably maintain intensity for a while before a weakening trend begins.

    An eyewall replacement cycle is underway. This, combined with recent intensification, pulled the center on a wobble westward, but that doesn’t make much different in the eventual track, still over water, still well offshore of the East Coast of the US, and west of Bermuda, but we still have a while to go to realize that.

    A series of disturbances in the jet stream will begin throwing punches at the subtropical ridge, weakening it, and this will be the main reason for the sharper northward turn we will see not all that long from now (24 hours or so, certainly by the late hours of Sunday night / early hours of Monday morning).

  35. Tom I am no longer on St. Thomas, I am in Australia, but from what my contacts including friends and colleagues are saying, its rough. They been seeing tornado’s water spouts, down trees and power is out ( not unheard) due to the crap show called WAPA ( Ie the water and power authority of the territory). The Guts have have been rushing

  37. Hurricane Erin hit the USVI (St. Thomas and St. John) harder than anticpitated, many power lines and tree’s down, major flooding and runoff going into the ocean. many people were not taking this system seriously because the local government did and said nothin and everyone was treating it as if this storm was just going to enhance showers and thunderstorms. This was all about communication.

    1. The forecasts my company put out for 6 different stations across the VI all week, especially the past 2 days, basically nailed the conditions that occurred. There was plenty of communication.

      1. Then you have WBZ up here the other day saying the Erin was heading for Puerto Rico and the D.R. .. ugh.

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