Sunday August 17 2025 Forecast (8:07AM)

83 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 17-21)

Some low clouds sit over portions of the region to start the morning (mainly along I-90 and across the hills of central MA and southwestern NH), but these will erode and dissipate as the sun rises, and sunshine will dominate as it heats up along with higher humidity today, due to offshore high pressure. An approaching cold front will bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon into this evening. While this doesn’t look like a widespread wild weather event, a few of the storms could be strong, so be on the look-out if you have outdoor plans or will be doing traveling. Tonight, the front makes its way through, but it’ll be mainly cloudy for a while and some shower activity may linger especially to the south as we transition to a cooler air mass. Monday’s weather as dominated by Canadian high pressure with a cool breeze and low humidity. As we head through Tuesday and midweek, the overall pattern becomes a little more complex. One player will be the remains of a disturbance heading this way from the northwest. Most indications are that it will weaken significantly and bring cloudiness and some chance of shower activity about Wednesday. During this time, Hurricane Erin, which has maxed out in intensity, and will now fluctuate in intensity before weakening, will be making a re-curve to the northeast and will be tracking northward then northeastward, into its position of closest pass to the US East Coast, about or just over half way between it and Bermuda. That storm will be far enough offshore not to have a significant interaction with the system in our area, which by Thursday, will have vacated our region anyway, and we’ll be back to fair weather with a northeasterly air flow. The only certainty from Erin will be the rough surf and large swells impacting the coast during midweek.

TODAY: Areas of low clouds Boston’s Metro West to RI, eastern CT, central MA, and southwestern NH, dissipating during mid morning. Sunshine late morning into afternoon. Clouds move in later. Late afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms possible, isolated to scattered, but any storms can be strong. Highs 85-92 except cooler South Coast. Dew point rises to near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds and a few showers linger mainly south of I-90 early, otherwise clearing. Lows 57-64. Dew point falls to 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 73-80. Dew point remains in 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low elevation fog patches. Lows 52-59. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs 72-79. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few showers. Lows 56-63. Highs 71-78. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 56-63. Dew point 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 22-26)

Fronts / disturbances bring shower and thunderstorm chances about August 24 and 26, otherwise a mainly dry weather pattern is expected as high pressure dominates much of the time. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 27-31)

The final several days of August feature a northwesterly flow pattern. Shower potential with a frontal passage August 28 or 29, otherwise fair. Temperatures near normal early period, below normal to end the month (August 30-31 is the start of the Labor Day Weekend).

83 thoughts on “Sunday August 17 2025 Forecast (8:07AM)”

  2. The laughable GFS models decided that the wave behind Erin would be a Bahamas to Carolinas hurricane on the 00z run, and on the 06z run it’s back to a Gulf hurricane.

    You know what to do with this information of course. 🙂

  3. The greatest impact from Erin so far is an outer rain band causing some flooding and wind damage in the USVI. That probably will be the greatest impact from this storm to any land area.

    Erin is down to a CAT 3. May briefly intensify again before weakening.

    One big problem you see out there in internet land: Once a storm has been a category 5, it seems to be treated by the uneducated hypesters that it can’t and never will be anything less than a category 5 for the rest of its life cycle. This is simply foolish, yet people fall for it.

    While Erin is still a major hurricane at category 3, and may attain category 4 status briefly, it will never be a category 5 again. Additionally, Erin’s core will be impacting no land areas during its time as a warm core tropical cyclone. And one would think by now any ships out there are clear of its path. We’re basically looking at a best-case-scenario here, folks. 🙂

    1. Thank you TK!

      I think the most we will see from Erin is higher surf in the middle of the week, especially south shore, Cape, and Islands. Was hoping for rain but as you pointed out … not happening.

      1. Agreed. Doesn’t look like a threat to Iceland but maybe a minor post-tropical hit to Greenland … pretty unsure at this stage.

      2. Very nice, gentlemen. Three for me too. I went back to my all time favorite first two words.

  8. Patriots.

    The over / under for the 2025 season is 8.5 wins. I thought I saw it a little higher on a site I can’t find now.

  9. Sorry but I have to disagree. Many people are saying there was no proper communication. As they put it, most forecasters ( including radio) did not forecast tropical storm like conditions to the area which did occur. Lots of flooding. The government did and said next to nothing. I recognize the damage that’s being shown by photos taken from friends and colleagues and some on island weather stations that some of my friends have and operate. The conditions after living there for nearly 6 years I know what a TS impact looks like and a heavy rain event. They had constant wind gusts for many hours last night that were above tropical storm force. Also if you say your doing things for radio stations which ones?

    1. Thank you, Matt. I’ve seen power outage maps and reports from BBC too. It is nice that you have first hand knowledge from friends and colleagues still there.

    2. Trying to play Switzerland, here.

      Both feedback that Matt and SAK reported can be true at the same time, I believe 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. It all depends on the source of information one is using.

        I can vouch for the validity of that company and the forecasts for the stations they do.

        I also know that not everybody ends up getting the same information, so there are going to be gaps, unfortunately. 🙁

        But that group of stations, serviced by the company he works for: Spot on. I’ve been following all of it.

        1. Exactly.

          Your first sentence captured perfectly what I was thinking when I said both were right at the same time.

    3. Directly from the email my boss sent to all of us Friday morning in regards to the forecast for the stations in the USVI:

      “Forecast we have out is right on track, Erin passes well north of them Saturday night and Sunday.  Biggest issues could be localized flash flooding from tonight through Monday morning due to outer rain bands and squalls with Erin’s circulation moving through, with gusts to tropical storm force strength for a while, especially across St. Thomas, St. John, and the BVI in some of the squalls. ”

      The stations we do are WJKC/WVVI/WSTX (AM and FM)/WVIQ/WMNG/WSKX

  10. Good luck to the Braintree Little League team playing now on ESPN. They need to win to stay in the tournament.
    Go Fairfield CT tomorrow night. They beat Hawaii Friday night which some say in recent years is the gold standard for American Little League Teams. They play Sioux Falls SD tomorrow night

  11. Fairfield down 1-0 going into the fifth score five runs in the fifth and win 5-1. Two plays Fairfield made at home plate to keep it 1-0 instead of 3-0.

  14. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.gefs.sprd2.png

    With the NAO projected to head closer to neutral and the AO projected to turn positive in 7-10 days, this could help the central Atlantic ridge be a little stronger and further west than it presently is.

    Nothing on the op runs suggests full blown Bermuda high pattern, but some signals suggest, should anything develop later in this time frame, it may not have the escape route Erin has.

    1. I hypothesize that because the AO turning positive means a retreat of lower pressure to the arctic which usually allows a part or more of the main jet to lift north.

      A less negative NAO should mean less blocking or perhaps less 500 mb low pressure near or just north of Newfoundland which could allow the central Atlantic ridge to be a bit stronger than it is now.

    2. The expansion will be slow at first, more rapid with time, as the transition to post tropical begins after the next couple days.

  16. Thanks Tk . Congratulations to Braintree for a great season , unfortunately there run has ended .

  17. Trying to check in when I can but lots of things going on today…

    -Son heading out to NJ (I’ll tell you more about this later)
    -Brother and I are planning the next phase of things to do regarding dealing with my mother’s stuff (he’s going away for a week soon so we need to get everything in place so we can hit the ground running when he comes back)
    -Keeping an eye on the weather in case any storms pop up / short range guidance recently doesn’t look all that threatening
    -Shopping list to fill!
    -Walk to take!
    -Visit to friend to make!

      1. Thank you 🙂
        I’m not looking forward to some of what we have to do, but we have to do it, and it will be better when it is done…

  18. NHC erred in not putting up Tropical Storm Warnings for parts of the VI and PR. There are now watches/warnings for parts of the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos. I fully believe that you’ll see Tropical Storm Watches for the Outer Banks of NC and possibly Bermuda by Monday evening.

  21. Next GFS run: Erin’s follow-up “Fiction-i-cane” goes across Cuba to Louisiana. Where or where will it be shown next? 😉

    Meanwhile, WeatherWeenie’s FB pages post every run like it’s gospel and have their followers proclaim how excellent the information is and how much better than are than the professionals.

    What’s that saying again? Oh yeah: “The blind leading the blind.” Perfect example are these page owners and their faithful followers. On a positive note though, I do continue to see more and more professionals calling them out and advising people about it all, which of course takes time from our real purpose, but at least it needs to be done.

      1. And don’t forget Erin is still a CAT 5, even though it isn’t anymore, because once a storm reaches its maximum strength it automatically stays there. 😉

  23. Logan nicked 90 in the last hour. Most areas are struggling to get there today. Mostly mid to upper 80s away from the cooler influence of the southwest wind on the South Coast.

      1. It’s hard to say. A lot of ASOS sensors were relocated in recent years and most of them were closer to vehicular traffic (planes and autos), many are over or next to asphalt, among other factors. Given that the normal hot spots are not that hot today, I have slight doubts that it’s actually 90 there. But remember, the NWS accepts up to a couple degrees error as “valid”, which I do not agree with whatsoever.

          1. Trees, or lack thereof, also will make a difference.

            For the record, I won’t dispute Logan’s 90. But I don’t think they’d be there if the sensor was in its previous location.

            For practical purposes, temps are going to vary up to a few degrees on many days over very short distances. You could make a case that the temp can be up to 3 or 4 degrees warmer in my front yard than in my back yard on a calm, clear morning. Micro-scale meteorology.

            In short, I’m not really going to question any of these temps beyond what I already said. It’s not like it’s a huge discrepancy in this case. 🙂

            It’s like earlier this month when I posted on a page I admin about MVY having low temps in the 40s many mornings in the first week or so of the month, and I had someone tell me I was blatantly wrong because they live there and it was in the 60s. So, I asked where on the island they live. It’s at the coast. And I explained that difference between the coast and inland. The thing is, the OFFICIAL reading for the island is taken at MVY. So that is what the number goes into the books as. People can know, or learn, the difference that can exist between that location and the coast. It’s just the nature of conditions and locations. We like to try forcing things into neat little boxes, but most of them don’t fit there. 😉

          2. I know you are like I am with accuracy so don’t doubt your reading for a minute. But I don’t think that is unusual. The west hill dam in uxbridge is maybe a mile from the blackstone river and canal area. One is 88 and the other is 90. My daughter’s house sits literally between the two so I watch and check both of those areas regularly. I can drive a mile or two in sutton from my home and see a 2-4 degree difference. I remember driving and recording temps maybe a year or so ago.

            https://ibb.co/W4JbXhpY

      3. Not that it’s right in that area, but Concord NH is at 94. The airport sits just east of a large hill and the wind is perfectly blowing down that hill to the airport. Ideal downslope there. Want another reason I know for a fact that’s happening? Dewpoint: 59. Yep! Local chinook in progress!

        1. I’ve been watching concord lately. Dear friends are up here from SC for the summer. They have been hotter than here a fair amount of times this summer. It surprises me but I’m sure should not

          1. It’s in a perfect spot to chinook. You do need just the right wind direction, which they’ve had several times for it.

            For June 1 through yesterday, they are +2F departure for meteorological summer.

  26. Under cloud cover, Burlington, VT is 65F with a 57F.

    Maybe shock to the system is too much, but tomorrow is going to have a huge different feel compared to today.

    1. The temp drop behind the front is pretty dramatic for August. 🙂

      The cool air masses aren’t playing around this month. Boston, despite their hotter days, is still running below normal, and is going to dive lower again in the days ahead.

  28. We just had .11 moderate to heavy rain. We dropped to 79. Still 70 dp). Uxbridge (4.1 miles from here) didn’t drop at all…..yet.

    1. I have been watching the weather for a friend who is doing a couple of important outside things in central Worcester County. It looked like some stuff was trying to pop to the south of there. You’ve gotten one of them. She’s in the clear for now in terms of rain. The next shot comes from the north later this evening.

      1. It was a compact little cell that went right over me, but sure was full of water for such a short duration

  29. I was at the south coast of Rhode Island awhile ago windy but the ocean temperature was 74 degrees. Very comfortable being in the water. I will not be in the water till next weekend after Erin is long gone.

  32. So it looks like the rain is dying out before it gets all the way down here to South Dartmouth. I may be wrong but we may have e gone whole month so far without measurable rain. Trees are wilting and lawns are crispy brown. And rain looks unlikely in the short term. Flash drought?

      1. Crazy dry.

        Jimmy B, line has developed (see radar below) kind of like Thursday evening, I think it was.

        Let’s see how far this can go.

        1. Yes I just saw that – they died out Thursday rapidly considering how strong they were. We did get great lightning but nothing else

          1. I did notice it fall apart right at the south coast, that stinks.

            Our wind is gusty now NE and it’s starting to sprinkle.

  35. Thanks, TK.

    Continued long period of mostly dry weather in London. The occasional burst of rain and sometimes a bit of mist, but otherwise ample sun at times and warmer than normal. Much warmer than normal just across the Channel.

    The remnants of Erin will take aim for the British Isles. But, as is often the case, there will be a North-South divide, with the North getting most of the action (similar with Storm Floris 2 weeks ago).

    Periodically, the jet stream buckles/dips and the Southern part of the island gets hit by Atlantic storms. Not this time around, however. Often in fall and winter some buckling occurs. When this is persistent, that’s when London can get quite rainy and windy for extended periods of time. Looking ahead, I see signs that this could occur at some point later this month or into September but not while I’m here.

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