Monday August 18 2025 Forecast (7:33AM)

69 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 18-22)

A blanket of clouds sits over our region to start the day today, but dry air moving in from the north will kick off a clearing trend this morning and we’ll end up with much more sun. Also the breezy conditions this morning will settle this afternoon as high pressure builds closer to the region, then overhead tonight, setting up a night of clear sky, calm wind, and radiational cooling. You’ll notice that if you’re heading up early on Tuesday morning. Tuesday itself will be a nice day with lots of sun, the clouds move in late from the northwest with the approach of a disturbance, which will bring a shower chance to our region Wednesday. The magnitude and exact timing of shower activity is somewhat dependent on the interaction of that system with the atmosphere around Hurricane Erin, which will be approaching the waters south and southeast of New England by then. Nothing has changed regarding the expecting intensity and track of Erin, the center passing about half way between the US East Coast and Bermuda. It makes its closest pass to New England Thursday, at which time you’ll at least see its cloud shield in the southeastern sky, and the northwesterly edge of it may expand up across far southeastern areas for a while, but these could be only sun-filtering high clouds, although some lower clouds may form from ocean moisture and stream across the Cape Cod region for a while that day too. Thursday would also be the day that there would be a gusty wind across the same area and a little more noticeable breeze elsewhere in the region. Rough surf and large swells will impact the coast, especially to the south, Wednesday through Friday, also peaking on Thursday. By Friday, the storm is accelerating away into the North Atlantic and high pressure is back in complete control here with fair weather.

TODAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Dew point falls to 40s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts in coastal areas during this morning, diminishing this afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low elevation fog patches. Lows 45-52 inland, 52-59 coastal and urban areas. Dew point in 40s. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs 72-79. Dew point returns to 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few showers. Lows 56-63. Highs 71-78. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 56-63. Dew point lower 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Dew point lower 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH with higher gusts coastal areas south of Boston, strongest gusts Cape Cod.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 52-59. Dew point near 50. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 23-27)

Warmth and humidity increases this weekend (August 23-24) with a shower and thunderstorm chance late in the weekend with an approaching cold front. Front passes by and fair, cooler weather arrives first few days of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 28 – SEPTEMBER 1)

Another front may bring a shower chance early in the period, after which high pressure moves in with fair and cooler to seasonable weather moving from the middle of next week through the Labor Day Weekend.

69 thoughts on “Monday August 18 2025 Forecast (7:33AM)”

    1. Almost too cool.
      I had a window slightly open and I got chilled and stared sneezing my head off. Had to close the window. 🙂

      1. I knew there would be at least a 3 if not more from some of our fine WHW Wordle players. 🙂 Great job.

      1. hey, you got it!! Not a fail.

        Watch SClark will have gotten it in 2. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  9. GO Fairfield CT Little League tonight at 7pm playing South Dakota. Game is on ESPN 2 .

      1. This will be another tough test for Fairfield tonight. They aced the test Friday night beating Hawaii. Let’s hope for a similar result tonight.

  11. I am so thankful for this weather today and most of the week.

    Exceptional Citizens week began yesterday, it runs through Saturday and my daughters and wife reported very hot cabins and a very warm day overall for non waterfront activities.

    Glad it’s September like and with the sun, the waterfront activities are still in play, especially during the afternoon.

    1. I helped move my wife’s stuff in last Friday as she is dealing with a pinched nerve in her left shoulder.

      Anyhow, lots of camps with nice cabins, but most without AC.

      I suppose since most of the people are young, they can cope with some of the hot days we’ve had this summer and the following warm nights. Those particular hot spells would have sent me home 🙂

    1. More important to note that the 12z ECMWF operational is essentially the exact same as the super ensemble mean of all global guidance. The UKMET is way off here.

      1. lol ……..

        On ESPN, while watching a game, they give current win % chance at that point in the game.

        Honest to goodness, it can be 18-1 in the top of the 9th with 2 out and no one on and they’ll have the win percentage at 99.9%. Only when the game ends, they switch to 100%. I think that’s affected me 🙂 🙂 🙂

        1. Technically, there probably is a tiny fraction under 100% chance of no US landfall. But I’m going to be risky here. 😉

  14. https://www.goes.noaa.gov/conus_band.php?sat=G19&band=09&length=24

    Interesting: weak upper level low up by the Panhandle of Fl

    I think the fast speed of Erin allowing it to get past a couple trofs out there, helped it get further west than expected a handful of days ago. But, also, this upper low may be tugging at it a bit.

    This doesn’t change it staying offshore the outer banks and the big curve east northeast coming after that.

  15. Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watch for the Outer Banks of NC. Hmmm….seems to me somebody said yesterday morning that this might happen.

    1. Nice call.

      So we camped in Cape Hatteras in summer 200? All I know is Hurricane Arthur hit them 4 or 5 days before we got there.

      Anyway, Arthur filled the pool with fish and other sea life. This had to be, oh, 4 or 5 ft above sea level and really, that seems to be about how high the roads get above the ocean out there.

      And depending on the wind, they can get flooded from the ocean or the sound to their west.

    2. A certain somebody said there would likely by TS watch for the outer banks. Well done sak.

  16. Member our fantasy gfs hurricane? Interesting that the nice has a 60% chance of a system developing to follow up on Erin. Cast in stone nope, but a chance.

  17. Boston’s high was only 68 today.

    There are not a lot of above normal temps to be seen for the second half of August as it stands now.

    In fact, if we get enough negative anomaly, meteorological summer has a chance at coming in COOLER than normal for Boston. The June/July anomaly there is only about +1.7F.

    Today will come in at about -7F departure for the city. The high was 68. The low will occur just before midnight, probably about 62.

  18. I’m glad I checked. The CT LL game is on a different channel and would not have recorded if I hadn’t checked.

  19. The CT game is on ESPN 2 because of a preseason football game between the commanders and Bengals

    1. Thank you. Fortunately, I didn’t do what I typically do and wait for some to play so I can FF commercials. Watching now. Thank you and Enjoy, JimmyJames.

  20. Erin seems to be making more of a turn to the north – it s has been steadily WNW and NW but I would say next advisory could have it at NNW. When does it go due north is question?

  22. 59 in pembroke . Family is at the fair as I work my 16 hour shift till 11pm , nice night for fair .

    1. My friend Paul is lead pyro on their fireworks display this Wednesday. It’s a smaller display – cakes only.

      Weather may be an issue, however.

  23. Fairfield CT wins on Wednesday against Nevada they play Saturday for the U.S. Championship!

  24. Logan’s first 90F day was June 19th. They’ve had 19 of them, with the 19th occurring yesterday, August 17th.

    About 60 days, 19 of them above 90F or a little less than 33% of the time. I’m thinking low elevation inland areas could be 24/60 or 40% of the time.

    So, as TK alludes to, the 92 days of meteorological summer could overall end up below avg temp wise at Logan will accumulating 19 (90F) days, including a 99F and 102F

    Speaks to some mild to cool interludes in there for sure.

    So, overall an avg summer temp wise that had a significant number of hot days.

    1. The cool interludes have been pretty grabbing. We have never really been able to put together any really long hot stretches. Maybe one 5 day stretch, and a 4 day stretch or two. But when you compare this summer to summers like 2002, 1995, 1988, 1983, 1980, well, there is no comparison at all.

    2. Thanks Tom. How does that translate to the state average. Or how do we know? Go by the blue hills observatory??

        1. I liked Toms numbers which is why I asked. Basing MA numbers on a location at the coast is misleading at best. But then we have moved to a 30 year average which of course incorporates the hottest years on record due to climate change.

          Have a good rest of your night. This is the August I remember for the first time in years so it’s a good sleeping night

    3. Most places hit 90 for the 1st time on June 5 – 75 days ago.

      MHT – 1st 90 on 6/5, 25 days of 90 or higher
      LWM – 1st 90 on 6/5, 24 days of 90 or higher
      OWD – 1st 90 on 6/5, 24 days of 90 or higher
      FIT – 1st 90 on 6/5, 23 days of 90 or higher
      ASH – 1st 90 on 6/5, 16 days of 90 or higher
      TAN – 1st 90 on 6/5, 15 days of 90 or higher
      BVY – 1st 90 on 6/5, 14 days of 90 or higher
      EWB – 1st 90 on 6/5, 11 days of 90 or higher
      Jamaica Plain – 1st 90 on 6/6, 24 days of 90 or higher
      Blue Hill – 1st 90 on 6/6, 18 days of 90 or higher
      PYM – 1st 90 on 6/22, 13 days of 90 or higher

  26. The May 3 90F at CEF / Northampton / Amherst got this area to 26 90 or 90 plus days. 2002 was 33 days with 3 days in April and 2 September.

    Put me on a limb ,no more 90 plus in SNE this season. Contrarian – Saturday is sneaky warm.

    1. I’m right there with you. We had four def 90+last week in SE Sutton. May be 5. I have to ck my notes

      Blue hills.,,
      * June 2025 saw 7 days with 90+ degrees, which was the most ever observed in June at Blue Hill.
      * By July 8, 2025, there had already been 10 days of 90+ degree temperatures, surpassing the total number of such days in 2024.

      1. Makes sense. Early summer was warm, late summer has been cooler.

        It was fairly easy to beat 2024’s #’s which were below average (along with 2023’s).

        For the purposes of gauging, individual locations are better than a state average, even for a small state, because there are too many variations from one place to the next due to proximity to ocean, elevation, and other factors.

        1. I understand. Unfortunately, we look at the state as a whole and it seems skewed to use Logan for that whole.

    2. As I stated, inland and the coast are often different. When I talk about Boston, I specifically mention it. 🙂

      1. Exactly my point. You wisely list temp spans for the majority of MA and then list what is typically a lower temp range for a very small section along the coast. But we use an area in that small section when we look at numbers for the whole. Example, is a met says we will hit 90 for a X number of days….Logan doesn’t so we say oops, he was wrong, but then a huge portion inland does.

        We know it’s not representative of the state to base forecasts in Logan. We have mentioned that repeatedly on whw. Not sure why that’s different now.

  27. Watching MVY was fascinating. Hanging around 60 degrees with an east wind about 5 MPH late last night when the wind went north under 5 MPH then calm, and the temp dropped like a rock to 42. Brr!

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