Friday November 28 2025 Forecast (9:23AM)

156 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 2)

Look out! Black Friday is here. If you’re doing the classic shopping run-around or attempting outside lights and decorations for the holiday season, you’ll be met with chilly air and a very gusty breeze as the air flows between high pressure to our west and low pressure over southeastern Canada. We’ll have to watch for some snow showers that may migrate our way from the Great Lakes with the help of a pool of cold air passing overhead making it a bit more unstable today. At worst, a couple of these snow showers could briefly dust surfaces that are cold enough, although some measurable amounts are possible in highest elevations, otherwise I don’t expect any major issues from any that occur. High pressure moving closer to the region will keep the cold in place but as the pressure gradient relaxes with the eastern Canadian storm moving further away, Saturday will see less wind and plenty of sunshine. The next low pressure system heads for southeastern Canada via the Great Lakes on Sunday. A warm front extending from this low will pass by our region in the morning, but any snow/mix it produces should remain west and north of our region – maybe a brief period of very light snow north central MA to southern NH. The cold front trailing the low will sweep through our region Sunday evening, and ahead of it will come some rain showers late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. The system exits later at night, and Monday will be a chilly, breezy, dry day as a new Canadian air mass arrives. Another quick-moving low pressure area will take shape and move northeastward to threaten our region with precipitation by Tuesday afternoon and night. The track of the low pressure area will determine its impact on our area. The majority of guidance indicates a storm system close enough to bring a variety of precipitation to the region, favoring rain at the coast and snow inland / higher elevation areas, although there is also some guidance that has been very consistent on bringing a flatter, less developed low pressure wave south of our area with a glancing blow of a little light snowfall. With this being a “day 5” forecast as of this update, I’m going to leave the door open to either of these outcomes being possible, and fine-tune as we go.

TODAY: Intervals of sun between many clouds. A passing snow shower possible, especially afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind W 15-25 MPH, gusts 30+ MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a snow flurry early. Lows 23-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing late.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing high clouds overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely west to east by late-day. Highs 45-52. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind shifting to W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 22-29. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow/mix/rain probable. Highs 32-39. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 3-7)

Overall pattern is set to feature near to below normal temperatures. Watching for a frontal passage December 4 and potential low pressure impact some time over the December 6-7 weekend.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 8-12)

Colder pattern continues. Difficult to time potential precipitation threats, but leaning toward the end of this time frame.

156 thoughts on “Friday November 28 2025 Forecast (9:23AM)”

    1. And where did he come up with this? Did you just pull it out of his ass????
      What a dreamer!!!
      Sure this isn’t APRIL 1st?

      Reply

    2. Actually what I did is somehow copy and paste yesterdays 1-5 into today’s 1-5 (no idea what I even did haha). Fixed it all and returned today’s segment to that spot – which is very similar anyway, other than removing Thanksgiving and adding Tuesday.

      Reply

        1. If you ever catch anything like that, feel free to let me know.

          I figured out what I did.

          I usually will start by taking a copy of yesterday’s 1-5 and moving it into today’s, at which time I delete TODAY & TONIGHT then add the night & day segments for day 4 & 5. After that I will edit/reword things for any changes. Sometimes I just re-write all of them. If I’m busy, I’ll leave something alone that hasn’t changed at all.

          Today, I was multi-tasking during the writing and I ended up editing DAYS 6-10 & 11-15 in the other tab, leaving the correct DAYS 1-5 in the other tab, and saving / sending the wrong one. The discussion was already written and was the same on both versions. So the version that got sent was the correct discussion, the wrong 1-5, and the correct 6-10 & 11-15.

          Reply

  9. Re: Ryan Maue

    I notice he has Atlanta, GA as his home area?

    I’m not defending him, but if you don’t live in a part of the country you’re suggesting an outcome for, you definitely lack the gained experiences of weather nuance for the local area.

    And I wonder if that’s having an effect here.

    Reply

    2. If Ryan’s prediction came to be, I would be happy as a clam. Yesterday at Thanksgiving dinner, we went around the table guessing the date for the first measurable snowfall in Lunenburg. I went for Dec 3, much earlier than anyone else.

      Go Team Ryan Hyper! 🙂

      Reply

  10. Thanks TK! Dealing with Thanksgiving driving hangover – got back from day trip to Long Island at 1am this morning. Thankfully it was great driving weather

    Reply

  13. Today is also called “Brown Friday” as this is the busiest day of the year for plumbers.

    Turkey gravy, grease etc. clogged in the pipes from yesterday.

    NO JOKE!

    Reply

    1. That can be avoided by running extremely hot water for several minutes – or avoiding the full grease down the drain to start with.

      Reply

  16. A model is just a simulation. It’s then applying what you know to adjust it to what’s likely to take place.

    Even though I may have his words wrong and may not even be fully accurate, that’s what I think TK is always telling us.

    So, with the new 12z ICON, I know it’s only early December and I adjust it because it looks like too cold a run to me for so early in the season with a 50F ocean and not a really bridged polar high to the north. It’s keeping inland areas way too chilly, in my opinion.

    Reply

    1. Important to note that if it’s a flatter, faster wave, there will be less ocean boundary layer influence.

      Reply

  17. I won’t be paying a ton of attention to the deterministic runs today other than if they make any moves…

    They become more useful tomorrow (starting with the 00z runs tonight).

    That said, the 12z ICON makes a move further southeast, in the direction of the still-unchanged ECMWF AI.

    Reply

  19. What is going to be so frustrating is that the rain/snow line probably won’t be all that far away from the coastal plain, relatively speaking.

    I can see Worcester getting off to a fast start with 6”+ while Boston continues bare.

    The Boston vs. Worcester “rivalry” 2025-26 begins come Tuesday with Worcester getting the opening “touchdown” for the season…as usual. 🙁

    Reply

    1. Not even considering a rain/snow line until 72 hours out, if there is even one to consider. There are scenarios in play in which there won’t be.

      Reply

  21. The NWS stated (before I had a chance to) for model simulations the thing to pay more attention to over Kuchera & 10:1 is the positive snow depth change maps.

    Reply

    1. The older version of the GFS probably would. I don’t expect too much change on this one (as far as the op run goes).

      Reply

        1. For now I’m just watching the trends on what it does with the main low vs. it’s AI cousin. The AI has been adamant on wanting the trough near the Carolina coast to become the focus for a main low deveopment, and a track that’s further SE than all the other global guidance.

          The non AI version has been ever so slightly closer to this solution than the GFS. So I’m just still in trend-watching mode for today.

          Reply

  23. The GFS (as is), before it even gets to the period for the storm threat – I can tell you that if you want a colder solution then it does not have high pressure in a good place leading up to the thing. It’s exactly where you don’t want it to be, in fact.

    Again also important to take into account the time of year.

    Reply

  24. 12Z GFS is high and tight, wet and wild. POUNDING RAIN up to VT/NH border. YUCK!!

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025112812&fh=105&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_cat-imp&m=gfs

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025112812&fh=108&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    24 hour Kuchera Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h-imp&rh=2025112812&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    24 hour snow depth change

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snodpc_acc-imp&rh=2025112812&fh=120&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Reply

  26. Alrighty!

    I’ve seen 12z ICON & GFS. I’ll take a look at the Canadian & Euro when they come in, but for now I am focusing on 2 things…

    1) The next round of Christmas decorating down at mom’s place. We are making her place as festive as ever, per her wishes. 🙂

    2) The radar today. I want to see what we get for snow showers out this way, which to me is more exciting than the what-ifs for Tuesday at this point.

    Reply

  30. Thanks TK.

    Winter wonderland here in Amsterdam NY. Moderate snow and wind currently and about 33F. Picked up an inch earlier and now are accumulating again as the northern edge of the band is parked over us for now. Most of the heavier sustained action is just to our south but we will see how long we can keep this going.

    The fragmented end of this band is what is causing the scattered snow showers in central MA right now.

    Reply

  32. Time periods for 12z EURO for Tuesday
    1pm
    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2025112812&fh=102&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    8pm
    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2025112812&fh=108&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    1am
    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2025112812&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    10:1 snow
    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025112812&fh=120&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Reply

  35. Good for my area if that track holds.
    Bad for you or anyone near or at the coast who want snow. Plenty of time for this to change. 12z GFS over amped compared to the other 12z guidance.

    Reply

  36. 12z Euro Positive snow depth change map for Tuesday:

    https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiNlw3YdsM40ZhgNjekVJXfcEtQ-zOZ4bWr4-QggNxGts6G8H7cWAUG1bUVJx2Gxlo8Q5S42SEcEptRWsme48OPIyK-TanlmNmCq0VYc27_4Stw0T97D809TUK2lNWp4fHtU6FnvD-RDZ-cIo3Vws5sITLgxTxARJZR6_0B68WMj5O1ApK4jL_5OCkOVhk

    1.5″ for Logan trending up to 6″ Waltham to 8″ Worcester and 6-8″ for northern CT.

    And 12z Euro Kuchera Snow vs 6z:

    https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgIy2VjVyg7B51zV54sDxPi3gcMSIP3kWp5zkLO_DQrUu0jM23ewlHtn4aVlqtq0D8zpxhoP8jxqEtu5pYi596dFh8UIZEdHjgALCXpxBK3uiQzCvB9I9NjqQ9iQJuABLIuPhy51eSDAFpMSzBoa7M63J11Z7oll3FumdN2ObRECSUshGKBxcYUvfF5nPQ

    12z looks more reasonable.

    Reply

    1. That’s about 4 inches for here in JP. I’d take that for the 1st snow.
      NOT going to happen,, but I’d take it for sure!!!

      Reply

  40. Near whiteout here again! This band stretches all the way from Lake Huron NW of Toronto, SE over Lake Ontario and down the Mohawk Valley into Massachusetts. The fragmented end of it is creating snow showers all the way to Boston at this point!

    Reply

      1. We may actually squeak out the low end of the advisory range we are in here of 3-5″. Doesnt happen too often this close to Albany.

        Reply

  44. I took a look at the 12z euro’s 850 and 925 mb temps and yes, they are below 0C, but they are not -5C or lower in areas it projects 7-8 inches of wet snow.

    It also has the retreating high ……

    Beating a dead horse, very early in December, ocean temps, deepening sfc low with wind …

    I think those snow projections for low level elevations are very, very questionable.

    If that exact scenario played out, Worcester airport and other interior elevated areas might get a plow able wet snow, but lower in elevation, I don’t think those snow amts would verify in that exact scenario.

    Reply

    1. I’ve seen it happen before, but We shall see. I HEAR you for all the reasons you stated. But one never knows. 🙂

      Reply

      1. Indeed.

        I guess I hope people, when seeing something like that euro snowfall map, set their expectations for less, with hopefully a pleasant surprise if their ends up being more.

        Not here on TK’s blog, I think because I’ve made weather posts on Facebook, facebooks algorithm posts all these weather pages on my feed that, wow, they are setting their readers up for mass disappointment and based on some comments, the readers expectations are now sky high.

        I have to ask my daughters help me shut some of those pages down from my feed. I’m annoyed watching them post the best snow scenarios and annoyed when they go on to post so much stuff and end it at the end with, not a forecast.

        Reply

        1. Those people are PATHETIC!!!

          That ocean is NOT you friend when you want snow early in the season. It simply IS NOT!!!

          Reply

  46. Watched BOTH Eddie and the Cruisers movies today.

    The 2nd one is FAR SUPERIOR to the 1st. Both are full of some great music. You could watch the 2nd without the 1st, but the 1st does set it up, even if it is not as well done and full of flash backs.

    Available for FREE at https://ww4.fmovies.co/search/?q=Eddie+and+the+cruisers

    I have been looking for these movies for a long time. NOT available on any of the typical streaming sites. I stumbled on this today, so I watched them both. 1st one was not very good.
    The 2nd one was WONDERFUL and I really enjoyed it.

    Reply

    1. BTW, all of the music was performed by John Cafferty and the beaver brown band, who by the way is from Rhode Island.

      Reply

  50. The Ch. 7 met used the word PLOWABLE!

    I imagine that will be the “word of the day” in newscasts and forecasts for the next few days through next Wednesday morning.

    Reply

      1. The word “plowable” is used quite liberally nowadays. I’m going to guess that whatever happens Tuesday will not be plowable, save for side streets (and that’s a big maybe). To me, plowable is when my street, Beacon, has to be plowed. And that hasn’t happened since February 2022. No event since then has been plowable according to my definition, even if plows were out. And I’d love to get on the snow train this December. But I refuse to until I see more evidence that SNE will get in the action. If this was the Northern tier of states in the middle of the country (lower 48) OR NNE OR Western NY state, different story.

        Reply

      1. As I’ve said I want some real plowable storms but I don’t think It’s in the cards for Tuesday night , sure would be nice to have a nice snow cover for Christmas this year

        Reply

  51. Just measured 3.5″ here in Amsterdam on the north side of town so managed to get into the WWA range. There is a report 5″ a few miles up the road, meanwhile just down the hill Downtown at river level there is probably only an inch. A function both of elevation and where the heaviest band set up earlier.

    Snow has ended now as the intense band has sagged about 5-10 miles south of here. It was ripping in that band…whiteout conditions with 1-2″/hour snow and gusty winds. Schenectady and Albany over to Pittsfield are now getting clocked.

    Reply

  53. I think I just heard a scream of frustration from Jamaica Plain (18z GFS)

    I hope our good friend will remember it’s the GFS and not even the 00 or 12z run.

    Reply

  56. Thanks, TK!
    Although the sky did look a little threatening at times today, no flurries this far east (yet!) 🙂

    Reply

  59. Back in my day, plows wouldn’t start plowing until the snow depth was at least 3 inches. I have no idea what the criteria is these days.

    Reply

    1. Back in my Belmont days we had heated roads so we didn’t need a plow

      Well, that may be a trensey bit true. One road in Belmont wss heated. Snake hill. It was in the 40s

      Snake Hill Road in Belmont, MA, is a historically significant street known for having a built-in radiant heating system under the pavement to melt snow and ice. This innovative feature was part of the original design for the mid-century modern community developed in the 1940s by architect Carl Koch and several Harvard-affiliated individuals.
      The community was planned for a steep, rocky site with magnificent views of Boston, which was otherwise considered difficult to build on. The heated road ensured year-round accessibility, a crucial aspect given the steep incline.
      Many of the individual homes within the Snake Hill development also feature radiant heating systems, often with radiant heated slate floors, as part of their original mid-century modern design.

      Reply

  61. I know what the models are saying when they simulate a good track, but in the good track scenario, I think the models are way overdoing the snow.

    Those are great tracks in January through early April with cold high pressure to the north.

    The system will have neither a cold high to the north nor a cooler ocean. I don’t get why the models are simulating this much snow in the right track scenarios.

    Reply

  62. And this is a good part of the hype.

    Pete posted on fb about next week. He clearly said it is a possibility and too far out.

    A friend shared his post. I commented to remember the words far out and possibility not for her but those reading

    Sure enough someone commented right after me “here comes the hype get the bread”.

    I said my peace. These folks fault Mets for doing exactly what they are the guilty party for.

    I don’t get why people need to be negative

    Reply

  64. Thanks TK.

    Not falling one bit for this type of system in early December. We have seen this may times with no high draining the cold air in. This will end up rain for most of SNE even interior parts. Don’t even think it will be snow unless something changes.

    Reply

    1. Very possible. But I’m not sure I agree with early December. The 9th has a history and it’s just less than a week later.

      Reply

    2. It goes back to what I say about a slipping of the mind into mid winter mode.

      It’s still autumn. The water temps are still relatively warm. Major snow events during the first half to 2/3 of December are rather rare. It’s just the climatology of our region. We’ve had a few, but they are not common.

      Reply

      1. Isn’t it hard to rule out all though just because of date? I can think of at least four major storms in early December in the last 40ish years.

        Reply

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