Thursday November 27 2025 Forecast (7:07AM)

115 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

Happy Thanksgiving to all! The holiday today will feature blustery, chilly, but dry weather behind a cold front that went by the region late last night. Other than wind gusts playing havoc with some kicks and passes in some of the many high school football match-ups, and forcing spectators to dress for it, it’ll be quite a nice holiday for moving about outside. The gusty wind is doing its part, however, to transport the coldest air mass of the autumn so far into our region, and we’ll feel that for sure Friday and Saturday. Winds will be most notable on Friday while we have a strong pressure gradient between high pressure over the Great Lakes and a large storm in eastern Canada, and that day can also have a few passing snow showers as Great Lakes moisture combines with a cold pool of air aloft associated with an upper trough. Saturday, though colder than normal for the date, will become more tolerable due the wind dropping off as high pressure builds into our region and relaxes the pressure gradient. We’ll lose the snow flurry threat that day as the cold pool aloft departs and the air flow doesn’t allow the Great Lakes moisture to make it all the way to our region. This high pressure area will crest over the region Saturday night, then move off to the east as low pressure heads for the Great Lakes, eventually to travel down the St. Lawrence Valley during Sunday and Sunday night. A warm front passes by here early Sunday, followed by a cold front Sunday night. The warm front will generate snowfall that will occur north of our area – over northern New England. The cold front will generate rain showers that will pass through our region late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. This system is moving quickly enough so that it will have cleared the coastline in time for a breezy, chilly and dry start to December on Monday – similar to today’s weather.

TODAY (THANKSGIVING): Mostly sunny start, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 45-52 this morning, then lowering through the 40s this afternoon. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts 25+ MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Intervals of sun between many clouds. A passing snow shower possible, especially afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind W 15-25 MPH, gusts 30+ MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a snow flurry early. Lows 23-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing late.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing high clouds overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely west to east by late-day. Highs 45-52. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind shifting to W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 2-6)

Colder weather pattern. Watching a wave of low pressure with a snow/rain/mix threat later December 2 to early December 3. Leaning toward a flatter, faster system that can’t develop quickly in the upper set-up, therefore a glancing blow or even a miss, but this is not a high confidence outlook this far in advance. Another system from threatens some precipitation by the end of the period – doesn’t look significant.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 7-11)

Colder pattern continues. Watching systems with potential precipitation early period and late period. Neither of these presents as a major storm by all current indications, but either or both could bring the threat of some frozen precipitation.

115 thoughts on “Thursday November 27 2025 Forecast (7:07AM)”

  2. Happy Thanksgiving TK. Thankful for you and this blog. To have access to a weather publication that is not monetized and presented with such detail, clarity, and dedication is a tremendous treasure.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    41 here

    Ocean: 50

    Wordle: 5

    Happy Thanksgiving all

    RE: upcoming storm threat
    Interesting. I have a sneaky feeling it will be fairly substantial. Not a holy crap batman, but something decent. PROBLEM is, near the coast there will be precipitation type issues. The amount of snow will depend on how soon the wind shifts to more Northly with still precipitation to be had.

    Irregardless of possible rain, Ukmet , Icon and gfs are most bullish. EURO and Canadian, not so much. No matter, should be interesting to watch.

      1. Yeah, really nice! NOT compared to SClarke’s 2 !!!!!!
        How do people do that? This game just isn’t for me!!

        1. I just made it up as the tenth Greek goddesses of inspiration!

          You found that it’s already a real thing somewhere. 🙂

  8. Thanks, TK!

    Happy Thanksgiving! Enjoy a great and fun day and weekend with family and friends!

    1. This will either be a miss OR a POUNDING RAIN HERE with big snows up North. OR NOT. 🙂 🙂 Everything would have to line up perfectly for this to be an all snow event near the coast. Not impossible, but NOT likely. We shall see.

      Wonder what the Euro will show today? I’ll get to see it as we don’t go to my daughters till 4.

          1. We are headed to my wife’s niece’s house several miles away.

            My mother-in-law, overall in good health, has been dealing with a few small health issues and really couldn’t host, with all that work to do so, so this new location this year.

            Jokingly, as long as they have a TV somewhere for football. 🙂 🙂 🙂

            1. Excellent. My daughter’s TV was broeken. Not sure if fixed yet. She and her husband are just too busy. so I’d wager it is not fixed. We’ll have our phones out. 🙂

  14. Today’s sky forecast makes me think that a very colorful sunset may be occurring in at least parts of the WHW forecast area. Keep an eye out for that potential in the 4:00 p.m. hour.

  15. Thank you, TK, today and every day.

    Happy Thanksgiving to everyone

    Wordle 5 for me. I had all five letters in guess 4. Three in right place and two reversed.

    Congratulations to everyone

    What is the muse????

    1. Cooked up a storm yesterday and heading to my older daughter’s in Uxbridge. My son and DIL also!!!

  16. Thanks TK.

    Happy Thanksgiving all! Heading to my daughters soon, and have a list of things not to forget!

    1. Go Cowboys, beat Mahomes and co !

      Let’s say it verified, in eastern Mass, within reason of the coastline, the simulated temps are 33-36F during the heart of the event and the snow depth maps show much, much less snow within, again, some distance to the coast. Reasonable when the ocean is still 50F.

      2. Yup, that would be my concern. Perhaps flipping back and forth and often mixed as well. I remember on early December event like that. We ended up with 3 inches here when some mets were calling for a foot. (Hey. remember that the ocean is still pretty warm)

  18. We need to beat the Chiefs to keep slim playoff hopes alive. There is talk the Chiefs Cowboys game might be the most watched regular season game in NFL history.

    1. Yikes. That makes it a difficult one for me. I’m a fan of Taylor and Kelcie. But also the cowboys because of you.

    2. GO COWBOYS!!! Best Thanksgiving gift would be for the CHIEFS TO LOSE!!! LOSE! LOSE! LOSE! LOSE! LOSE!!!!

      Ask me if I can’t stand the chiefs! I CANNOT STAND THEM and I HATE Mahommes and Kelce! LOSE! LOSE!! LOSE!!!!!
      AND LOSE SOME MORE!!!!

      1. I’ve never been a Mahomes fan but then I don’t know a lot about him. Didn’t know kelcie before Taylor. I am a huge fan. He does a lot for others.

  19. Thanks TK and Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

    I am up at my mother’s in Amsterdam NY and we are under a winter weather advisory tomorrow for Lake Effect Snow with up to 3-5” possible. Should be a band with a lengthy fetch setting up off of Ontario later and sagging south along the Mohawk valley at some point but it’s always a crapshoot with these. We are usually too far east to get in on the goods with these but it happens every once in awhile. Would be fun to wake up to a burst of snow tomorrow AM but we’ll see.

  23. Score card for Boston (all models snow N&W of Boston)

    GFS SNOW
    GDPS RAIN
    ICON RAIN
    UKMET RAIN

    EURO TBD (MY BET IS RAIN!!!, ELSE OUT TO SEA) 🙂 🙂 🙂

  24. If the 500 MB flow is truly as amped up as most of these models depict, then surely it will RAIN. We shall see.

    Hoping for snow, but expecting rain.

    I don’t even think out South of us is on the table any more.

    1. For Boston and the immediate coast, yes, but even the models that are pretty far north start (or remain) snow/mix for many interior areas of SNE.

  26. Happy Thanksgiving to all.

    Did the Thanksgiving Turkey Trot 5k (3.1 miles) in 24:15. Could have done faster if I didn’t have to stop twice because of my stomach but still a new personal record. (And 4 on wordle)

    Weather twitter pretty much has crowned this snow potential as definitely going to happen so the hype cycle has begun.

  27. Euro AI remaining as mostly a miss.

    It could be completely wrong.

    Just trying to watch its performance for future systems in mind.

    1. I really don’t think this thing is a miss. More a problem with RAIN for those of us who live along or near the coast. Still some time, but I think I am in the RAIN camp. We shall see.

      50 degree ocean temp will do that for us.

      Need a system where the winds are more Northerly. This one appears to have more Easterly winds or ENE, just not going to cut it with 50 degree water.

    1. Not sure the models know how to factor in that damn warm ocean. 🙂 We shall see. I’ve seen it before here and as I stated above somewhere, here, it sometimes flips back and forth or is just a mix. We shall see. I’ll be sure to let you know.

    2. Really nice hit on the 12z Euro. It’s slightly further offshore which locks in the colder air closer to the coast. 6”+ for most.

  32. 12z Euro is the best case scenario to deliver accumulating snow (and mostly snow) to the majority of SNE. The more amped solutions arent going to get it done, especially this time of year.

  39. Well, the trend today is for a sharper disturbance approaching bringing the sfc low further west next week. The 00z GfS solution even gets a warm sector into SE Mass.

    Also learning the Euro-AI ensembles performing better than its op run.

  41. Another trend is the polar high is in retreat to Nova Scotia ahead of the storm’s approach. It’s not bridging or staying north of New England. Can see east and southeast flow establishing just ahead of the low’s approach.

    1. Of course. One of the scenarios you pointed out several days ago. So much for a flatter solution.

      I am rather disappointed. AT Least most of the ski areas would do well, Unless it trends even farther West.

      1. Speaking of disappointment, I didn’t get Wordle today.

        Just didn’t see it.

        Re: weather, I’m guilty of it too, forgetting what TK reminds us, it’s still only late November about to be early December. It certainly can snow, had and will again, but the odds are still higher against a region wide snow than for it happen this early in the season.

        There still really isn’t tremendous op run consistency on this next event. If I can only get through my own head to be patient til 3 or 4 days out.

        2. Took me 5.

          I think there is quite a bit of model agreement on the Tuesday System. High and tight, wet and wild. Pretty potent system. May it stay ALL SNOW in Ski country!
          At least give us that.

    2. My advice is to have late autumn expectations for these systems, not mid winter ones. 🙂

  43. This is probably a good time to issue these reminders (again, as I’ve done since 2010)…

    It’s November / early December aka still autumn. Don’t look at these systems like we have the climatology of January / February. It’s NOT the same. This is a time of transition, not just suddenly mid winter.

    Deterministic guidance is still on the edge here. Tuesday is day 5. Yes, today is day 1. Which means Tuesday is day 5. Tuesday is 4 days away, but Tuesday is NOT day 4 on the forecast. It’s day 5.

    Day 1: Today.
    Day 2: Saturday.
    Day 3: Sunday.
    Day 4: Monday.
    Day 5: Tuesday.

    New post…

Comments are closed.