Saturday November 29 2025 Forecast (7:28AM)

155 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)

High pressure builds in today with dry, cold conditions, but diminishing wind. The high slides off to the northeast by Sunday as low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes. Its warm front passes by in the morning but produces some snow/mix north and west of the WHW forecast area. We have abundant cloud cover and at best very limited sun (very early morning some areas and maybe a break or two midday into afternoon). The cold front trailing the low produces rain showers from west to east from mid afternoon to mid evening before exiting offshore. Behind this system, December arrives with a chilly, dry, breezy day on Monday. A pattern of quick-moving systems means the next low pressure area rockets northeastward from the US Southeast on Tuesday and brings a swath of precipitation into our region by Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The dilemma with this upcoming threat with not much help from wishy-washy guidance is to figure out the exact track and rate of deepening of low pressure which both play a role in determining precipitation type and intensity. Our antecedent air mass will be chilly, but not really a deeply cold one with no solid high pressure area to the north to hold that cold air in place. Being very early December, the ocean water temperature is still relatively warm (compared to where it will be by mid winter). As far as low pressure goes, I am continuing to lean toward a flatter, faster system, a little bit further south than some of the guidance shows, along with slower deepening. While this is a slightly colder scenario, it doesn’t lock in a significant snowfall especially for areas near and east of I-95, because of the antecedent marginal temps and the ocean’s influence. So the current leaning is for a relatively short-duration event, with light to borderline snowfall potential inland and mix to rain at the coast and to the south of Boston. There are still 3 regular blog updates to come to refine and finalize this forecast. Regardless of the storm details, it’s gone by Wednesday, which will be a dry, blustery, and colder day.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing late.

TONIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing high clouds overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely west to east by late-day. Highs 45-52. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely in the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind shifting to W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 22-29. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow/mix/rain probable. Highs 35-42. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy early with precipitation ending. Clearing overnight. Lows 22-30. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 4-8)

Overall pattern is set to feature near to below normal temperatures. Watching for a frontal passage December 4 and potential low pressure impact some time over the December 6-7 weekend, but leaning toward that being a miss to the south.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 9-13)

Colder pattern continues. Difficult to time potential precipitation threats, but a mid period frontal passage and a late period low pressure impact potential are being watched.

155 thoughts on “Saturday November 29 2025 Forecast (7:28AM)”

  2. (From yesterday, non-weather)…

    I saw John Cafferty & The Beaver Brown Band brought up.
    I will regularly pick artists (well-known favorites, less-known to me, etc.) and go through their entire music catalog. This past week I went through John Cafferty’s entire catalog (which you can do in about 5 hours) including the new album that just came out in the last couple years. Good stuff!

    Reply

        1. After googling and listening – I only recognized two songs (sleep walk and on the dark side.) I realize why I didn’t recognize the name… I remember hearing about them as eddie and the cruisers. That said, none of their other music is familiar to me and I’ve never seen any of the eddie and the cruisers movies.

          Reply

    4. They played at Lyndon State university sometime in the late 80s.

      I couldn’t believe I was hearing “On the dark side” being played in Lyndon’s relatively small gymnasium. It was awesome !!

      Reply

  6. Happy Birthday to…ME!!! 🙂

    I am 65 today. Now officially on Medicare! lol.

    Happy Birthday to TK’s daughter as well. 🙂

    Reply

  10. Good morning and thank you TK.

    35 here, 32 low

    Ocean 49

    Any room for another in the 4 car. Yes I also got it in 4 and that was with Zilch on my usual starting word. 3rd guess got me 3 letters in correct position that allowed me to get the word in 4.

    Happy birthday Philip.

    You can now officially join the old timers club.

    Re: Tuesday
    Tk laid out the issues very well. 6z Euro now virtually all rain for boston and only light amounts of snow n & w.
    gfs still over amped and wet.
    Can’t see a model that brings us what we want.

    I am on the verge of throwing in the towel on this one. Just not the right set up.

    Will be watching the model runs just the same.

    Reply

  11. Past several winters we been burned by good looking model runs, I think we buck the trend this winter season at least during the first half of the season. Blending all the models still sends a borderline moderate snowfall event to many away from the immediate coastline.

    Reply

    3. This is not the type of pattern or time of year that yield much good if you want lots of snow.

      Part of the problem is the plastering of days-in-advance deterministic runs online. People see these and just have it in their heads that this is what’s going to happen. And it almost never is what’s “going to happen”. 🙂

      Reply

  12. Thanks, TK.

    I’m officially quite irritated at the WAY OVER THE TOP predictions for December I’m still seeing from serious forecasters on social media. 1. The cold that’s coming is NOT especially harsh (I don’t even think one can say it’s going to be “very cold,” as unfortunately even some local mets on TV were saying last night. It’s December, folks, 30s daytime/20s at night, with some upper teens in places, is NOT “very” cold for the time of year. 2. The way snowstorms and possible snow events are presented now is worse than it was even a few years ago. Nothing that’s happening this weekend in the Midwest is that unusual. And the blue cold blob (PV) that I keep seeing enveloping parts of the U.S. isn’t unusual either, or particularly cold. I don’t even think we’ll deviate that much from normal temps the first two weeks of December. Below normal, yes. But we’ve experienced FAR colder periods in December.

    Reply

    1. Totally agree.
      NOT cold today or yesterday.
      A little below average, yes. Cold, NO!!!
      Same will hold true for Tuesday’s non-event.

      If we get teens at night and below freezing by day, then I would say cold, but still not very cold.

      Reply

      1. I don’t think Boston, at least on the Common (JP may be a different story), has been below 30F at night yet. And it’s unlikely to do so until the middle of the week.

        I realize that in social media land some of the attention-grabbing headlines are there to get more clicks and views online. And of course, viewership is also important for television. I think our local TV mets do a good job generally of avoiding the hype. BUT there is still way too much hype around.

        I guess I’m a boring curmudgeon. I like to see facts and things that are reality-based. When I write headlines for my pieces on healthcare and economics, they sometimes get altered by my editors who say they’re not “enticing” enough. Often the headlines that they then post are NOT reflective of my articles’ content.

        The editors are getting their marching orders from above. And who’s above? Well, it’s the folks who want to generate more money, more ad revenue, and not necessarily better content.

        Reply

        2. I’m expecting that soon an Severe Average Low Temperature Warning will be sounded. Prepare early and beat the mad rush!
          🙂

          Reply

        1. Not a “non-event”. It’s still an event. But it’s the details by location that matter. Even a rain event is still an event, because when it’s been fairly dry as it has been, that can result in hazardous travel because you have more road oil accumulation.

          Reply

  16. RDPS, a much weaker system

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2025112906&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    ICON kind of in between NAM and RDPS

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2025112906&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2025112906&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    ICON 24 hour kuchera snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2025112906&fh=102&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Reply

  17. I am really waiting for the EURO, BUT will take a peek at the GFS and UKMET along the way.

    So far, mainly rain in Boston, if not ALL rain.

    Reply

  19. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2025112912&fh=78&r=ca_e&dpdt=&mc=

    This is the biggest key to accepting that much of southern New England isnt getting much, if any, snow.

    90-96 hrs out, the milder scenarios are sending accumulating snow into northern New England.

    I suspect a few of the ‘colder’ scenarios will run by run, inch the accumulating snow further north and west of at least 495 and perhaps even rte 2, perhaps even north of Manchester or Nashua, NH

    Reply

        1. Yup.

          In early December, that is not the place for the high pressure.

          It’s not a good place anytime.

          At least in February, with a colder antecedent airmass and ocean, we might secure 2-4 first before a change to rain.

          Reply

          1. In february, could even be all snow, dependent on exact track. Early December? NOPE, not going to happen.

            AND this supposed COLD high, isn’t all that cold either.

            I remember a storm in the Early 60s, 1960 I think.
            It was Dec. 12 I think. Now that is a little later, but it was COLD and I mean cold. No more than the 20s the day before storm and it may have been the teens.
            Storm came up the coast, and it didn’t matter about the ocean because the HIGH was damn cold and it was in the correct position continually pumping cold air into the area. I was in Millis at the time and I believe we got 14 inches of pure powder with that one.
            Drifts all over the place. Boston got the same or close to it. Not sure how powdery the snow was there.

            Point being, need antecedent COLD air mass AND the high in the correct position!!!!

            Reply

  20. I’m beginning not to like the term “plowable” to describe an upcoming frozen event at least around here. Too many uncertainties and especially, too much ocean proximity.

    Reply

    1. That word should not be used in a generalized way unless we’re talking about a system that’s going to deliver significant enough snowfall to virtually the entire region.

      Again too many absolute-sounding terms being used far too soon. There’s a better way to do this.

      Reply

  21. Happy Birthday Philip. In honor of your streak count how many days have you been alive for? I always thought 4 inches was when the word plowable was used

    Reply

  24. I remember several early Dec storms right around the 9th. Dec 1978 it rained all day then dumped maybe a foot very quickly along with thunder snow in Boston. I don’t recall others exact dates but one maybe early 90s closed school for three days for the first time. I believe around 2007 was another. One more recent.

    Reply

    1. Quick question. I have not heard anyone say absolute miss or absolute hit. I thought we werrr just keeping an eye on Models as we always do until it comes closer. Did I miss something???

      Reply

  25. For the rest of the month, I do think there may be decent to impressive surges of cold.

    The major question is …..

    1) do they come down through the western Great Lakes and move east-southeastward through the northeast. That would be a below avg temp pattern and dependent on the depth of the trof, maybe a cold storm event

    2) or do the cold surges move southward through the inter mountain west or southward through the Plains into Texas because a deep trof is in the inter mountain west or the plains well west of us.
    That is likely to cause occasional systems to go to our west and we’d get those inside runners that have a strong cold front with a big temp drop after a warm sector with heavy rain showers ahead of a cold front.

    2 very different possible outcomes ahead.

    Reply

  27. Happy birthday, Phillip.

    Driving from San Antonio area to Houston area today. Temperatures in low 70’s. All the models say NO snow here.
    JPDave would love it here….NOT!

    Reply

    2. I’ve been to Texas, Dallas/Ft. Worth and I did not like it one single bit. 🙂 That being said, from what I have seen of San Antonio, it is a beautiful city.

      Reply

    1. Don’t think I’ll see much living here next to the coast. In general. I’m not seeing all the ingredients for this one like cold air being pumped in from an eastern Canadian high.

      TK did say it might trend south which might lead to some colder air intrusion, but I think the whole thing lacks oomph!

      Reply

      1. A flatter wave further south would produce less precipitation but be a colder scenario. However, “cold” is relative. We do not have a solid cold antecedent airmass and a high in the right place to hold what we do have in place.

        Have to think “late autumn” and not “mid winter” here.

        Reply

  29. Thanks, TK and hope your daughter had a nice birthday and Happy Birthday, Philip.

    Hope all had a Happy Thanksgiving. I haven’t been on the blog for awhile due to my back being out. It’s better now. We ordered a turkey dinner from the local market. It was very good. Looking forward to Christmas, but I have an appt. w/a dr. in the morning on Christmas Eve Day. Looking forward to setting up decorations for Christmas. Healthwise, it’s been lousy for my husband and me for some time. My sister usually has Christmas dinner. Looking forward to that, Christmas lights and music. And SNOW.

    Reply

  30. By the way, 162.550, Worcester weather radio on our hand-held receiver has been “temporarily down”. Can’t receive others, like Boston due to our location. Anyone know what’s going on with Worcester?

    Reply

  31. JPD: Just curious. Following that December 12, 1960 snowstorm, was it a white Christmas that year? Or did it melt away with none to replace?

    Obviously I was a bit too young to remember now that you know my birthday. 😉

    Reply

  32. And the 12z euro with the much flatter scenario.

    It’s the one way to get a little wet snow closer into eastern Mass.

    It’s the outlier right now.

    Reply

    1. Thanks Captain! So you are 4 months “older” than me. Lol. 🙂

      Medicare is so confusing with all the tv commercials not to mention the booklets and other solicitations in the mail. I have until December 7 to decide which is best for me.

      Reply

  37. I want to share with you an example of the kind of stuff I’ve been seeing for the past few weeks on Twitter. This is from Mike Masco:

    MOTHER NATURE ABOUT TO UNLEASH THE COLD
    The cold just won’t stop. Every time we see a hint of moderation on the maps, it gets flattened by another surge of Canadian air recharging the pattern. This isn’t a one-off blast — it’s a repeating cycle of cold reloads that keeps resetting the atmosphere over the eastern U.S.

    What’s developing is the kind of setup that almost always pays off for winter lovers:
    • Persistent northern-stream energy
    • Fresh cold injections every few days
    • A boundary zone primed for overrunning events
    • And the storm track lurking just to our south and west
    If you’re getting the sense that a “December to Remember” is beginning to take shape… you’re not wrong. The pattern is evolving into something capable of multiple winter events, not just one and done.
    — — —

    There’s some truth to what he’s saying, but a lot can (and probably will) change in both the short- and especially long-term (say, more than 5 days from now).

    I wish he would include caveats and be less hyperbolic (phrases like “December to Remember”).

    Reply

    1. Might be worth it to note this is BEFORE the Tuesday event arrives and any snow there is related to the event on Sunday.

      Reply

  39. From time to time, I have read there are some scientific reasons to believe it snows on Mars. The snow is of a different makeup than what we see here.

    I think Mars has more than one type of snow. I remember one type is kind of like dry ice. Can’t remember the other. I wonder over the past few years whether it snowed more on Mars than in Boston.

    Reply

    1. They have 2 types of “snow” depending on the conditions.

      “Water-Ice” snow never reaches the surface. It’s too dry. It sublimates back to gas.

      “Dry-Ice” snow has cube-shaped ice crystals and can leave a small trace accumulation.

      Even if they were defined the same, it does not snow more on Mars than in Boston.

      Reply

  40. My wife and I took our dog for a walk behind Rexhame Beach along the south river at low tide.

    Nice walk ! The air is so clean and the sky so blue.

    It was a cold breeze to the face. I checked the dps which are in the low-mid teens, so no wonder that breeze was cold.

    Reply

            1. If it helps, just remember that it is awfully early in the season for around these parts. Of course, we have seen big snows early in December before, but it is NOT the norm by any means.

              Reply

  46. 14” more of new snow at Jay Peak since Thanksgiving and now 113” on the season and their snowiest November on record. And plenty more snow coming up there this week.

    We skied at Killington today and it is a different world down there. Only a dusting of natural snow on the mountain. We have more on the ground here in Amsterdam NY from the 4” of lake effect yesterday, which didn’t melt much today. They can use a good dump from the Tuesday storm up there if there is a silver lining to the latest model runs.

    That all said, it was a good day of early season skiing and they had 30 trails open which is a lot for this early in the season. They have been able to make a lot of snow with the sustained cold and were pounding multiple trails with the snow guns today, including ones that were open which was fun.

    Reply

    1. Conversely out West they are hurting. Only 19” on the year so far at Snowbird and Alta Utah and many areas in Utah, Colorado and the Sierras have delayed their opening dates until December. It’s been too warm out there even to make much snow.

      Reply

      1. Awesome Mark. These are the times I wish my older brother were here so I could tell him this.

        I do not remember how early it snowed when we skied. I know it had to be before Christmas. We headed up for Christmas vacation and then most every weekend after. I do remember seeing the nasty snow guns maybe three times. That was the signal to stop skiing 😉

        I remember only one Christmas vacation, which I’ve mentioned before, that it rained. I think maybe 66. I didn’t mind. We were staying at Easter slope inn and there was a jigsaw puzzle table in the lobby / lounge a really cute guy helped me work on 🙂

        Reply

        2. Christmas break is a big ski week and the last several years haven’t been that great with resorts having low trail counts which translates to long lift lines and over crowded trails. This year should be much better with the good head start and the way things are shaping up for December with more sustained cold and what looks like many snow chances up there.

          The Eastern Slope Inn is very pretty to drive by. I have been to North Conway many times and always say we should check it out but still have never stayed there.

          Was that cute guy BM??

          Reply

          1. Mac?? No. We didn’t meet till years later.

            The red jacket opened when we were going and we stayed there a lot.

            The Eastern slope had dancing under the stars in summer so we’d get a room overlooking the patio do my younger brother and I could watch our parents dance. They were fantastic dancers.

            I have no idea if it’s been kept up.

            I remember those lean years later on and still. Breaks my heart. Hoping for a banner year !!

            Thank you for bringing old memories. I needed that ❤️

            Reply

            1. Yeah by BM I meant before Mac!

              Now the Red Jacket is a place we stayed at a few times back in the 90s. I understand it just partially reopened under a new name as they continue to rebuild from the fire a few years ago. They have an indoor water park attached to it now.

              Reply

              1. Ohhhh got it and yes. 🙂

                The loft rooms were great at red jacket. And the lounge once I was older. I’m
                Glad to hear they are reopening.

                Fox Run?? Was another that opened not long after red jacket

                Reply

  47. My observation of all this snow hype is that people in this area are so desperate for a “plowable” snow event. 1,370 days is a long time and people crave for what they haven’t been able to have. We need a “big one” soon or I think this is inky get more ridiculous. I fully expect another heavy rain storm here Tuesday night along the coast. And I am okay with that – it is still fall for goodness sakes ..now two weeks from now I might get a little more disappointed.

    Reply

  51. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=925th&rh=2025113000&fh=66&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Here’s the GFS 925 mb temps at the time inland areas are maximizing snow in its simulation. There are some locations with -2C at 925 mb being shown to receive almost half a foot of wet snow.

    There is an ok 850 mb low

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850wh&rh=2025113000&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    But I don’t think signs of a comma head

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=700wh&rh=2025113000&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    I just think that 7.7 and 8.7 projection for just west of Worcester and the western Merrimack valley are too high and now getting to the short range here, the no snow accumulation line will edge another 30-50 miles north and west before all is said and done.

    Reply

    2. I don’t. I want snow. (Tom the rest of this is not aimed at you but just general public) before anyone says its hard to get snow or goes into any explanations etc in December, I Know I don’t need reminding most on this blog doesn’t. I am staying positive though. The signs are there that this December gives us opportunities compared to previous seasons. At the same time whats cold now, based on the 30 year average was around normal or slightly below normal based off the old 30 year average. Whats normal now is a different from what was normal. In this world full of BS, im going to go positive. Way to much negativity and im sick of it. It’s December, Xmas cheer y’all

      Reply

      1. I’d personally like a little snow and cold too 🙂

        It’s, as Joshua is doing pointing it out, the overdoing it on the weather pages and those on twitter.

        I know the ultimate solution is me not reading it and I’m trying, but that may take some time to change that habit.

        It’s crazy that it’s still November and I’m tired of winter overload expectations already !

        Going forward, if I can narrow my focus to here for weather info, I’ll feel better about it.

        Reply

        1. I think its more about who you follow and people pay attention to what the person actually said. I am seeing too many people exaggerating or cherry picking what people are saying.

          Reply

          1. I can tell you one thing. I do not cherry-pick what is said. I see that done, but it won’t be done from me. I’ve done this too long and been involved in communicating it too long.

            In the private sector, my audience was approximately 250,000 people reading my information in multiple languages. You better believe I had to know how to communicate. 😉

            When it comes down to who you follow, it’s directly tied to what they say – they’re not really separated.

            What ideally needs to stop is the false and hyped info. I’ve actually seen a couple pages now openly admit that they are doing this for 2 reasons…

            1) Hype for clicks / shares = monetization.
            2) A shot at the professionals.

            The AMS is going to talk about this issue in their upcoming meeting, but I am just not sure what can be done about it. It comes down to people deciding whether or not to be respectful to the profession and the people who need real information, and they choose “not”.

            Reply

          2. Thank you Matt. The negative is difficult to wrap my head around. I don’t see it on social media because I deliberately choose not to. I don’t recall it ever being here in this volume. Tom is correct. It is who you read. And when you click or share, they get exactly what they are looking for.

            Reply

      2. Don’t misread realistic forecasting as negativity. If I see a snow chance for a given location, I’ll forecast it. If I don’t, I won’t. 😉 This is how I learned it – and this is how I do it. That ain’t changing!

        Reply

  54. The headline I shared above from yesterday afternoon was from a primary mainstream media source and probably the most viewed media source in Central and western New England.

    Reply

  55. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850th&rh=2025113000&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=850th&rh=2025113000&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=850th&rh=2025113000&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=850th&rh=2025113000&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    VS

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=850th&rh=2025113000&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    00z runs from last night.

    Reply

    1. Yep, definitely don’t go looking for a classic from a relatively weak system on Dec 2 with no high to the north and a very progressive, barely partially phased dual jet stream.

      Reply

Leave a Reply to Philip Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *