Tuesday January 20 2026 Forecast (7:29AM)

169 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 20-24)

Today will be a cold, blustery day with dry weather. Low pressure heads north of our region later tomorrow and Thursday with a warm front / cold front combo producing no more than some minor light snow to the north tomorrow and perhaps a snow / mix / rain shower at some point Thursday. Another disturbance goes by to the north on Friday dragging an arctic cold front through the region which can produce a snow shower, but will introduce the coldest air mass of the winter so far for the end of the week. Saturday, sun becomes filtered by high cloudiness well in advance of a significant winter storm that will be impacting a large swath of real estate to the southwest and south of New England. More on this after the detailed 5-day forecast.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-8. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by increasing clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow. Temperatures steady or rising slightly. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow and / or rain showers. Highs 36-43. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 11-18. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Chance of a brief snow shower. Highs 23-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 1-8. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chills fall below zero.

SATURDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 13-20. Wind W 10-20 MPH. Wind chills below 10.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 25-29)

Chance of snow depending on how close a large-sized storm system comes to our region as it passes to the south during January 25-26. This will be followed by fair weather in general but another disturbance later in the period can produce some snow showers. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 30 – FEBRUARY 3)

Pattern supports colder than normal temps with an additional opportunity for a winter weather event.

169 thoughts on “Tuesday January 20 2026 Forecast (7:29AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK

    Temp 18 here

    Ocean: 42

    Wordle: 5

    GFS has come more North for Sunday. GDPS is the winner so far. Euro a little closer as well. How close will it come.?AND could it come close enough for a significant Ocean effect event here even if main snow is South I see some hints of that in some models. Withe water 42,and surface in teens and 850mb below zero, might be ripe if wind direction is good. Something else to monitor, maybe. We’ve seen it before.

    1. Actually the Euro has a rather strange solution that brings decent snow in here. Maybe not a blockbuster, but a Philip count buster for sure. 🙂

  3. 0Z EURO

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&rh=2026012000&fh=174

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&rh=2026012000&fh=180

    10:1 snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026012000&fh=186&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Ratio would be considerably higher, so take those numbers and multiple by 1.5 to 2 or possibly more.

    What will the 12Z run show. We’re going to see a ton of these runs before the event.

  5. Thanks Tk . Once my wife gets discharged ( hopefully today ) I’ll mostly be off for a couple of weeks so I really , really would love an old fashioned snow storm which we just can’t seem to get , here’s hoping right . It looks nice down this way with all the snow on the ground .

  8. iphone weather app now says 6-7” for Sunday down from it’s wild 15”. It’s funny how seriously some people take weather apps when it’s this far out and never complain when it’s wildly wrong – but if a meteorologist is an inch or two off they should be fired.

      1. I can’t believe those apps are even out there.

        We were with friends last evening and one of them kept saying that my phone says this and that about the upcoming weather.

        People really rely on those damn useless apps.

  11. Greenland is a hot topic of discussion, as we all know. And for the wrong reasons, in my opinion, but I won’t get political here. I just want to say that not in my wildest imagination would I ever think Greenland would top international news.

    I’ve been obsessed by Greenland since I was about 7 years old (1971/72) when my father told me about the Inuit. Back then, the capital was called Godthab (it is now Nuuk). I spent countless hours in the library looking up stuff on every town and hamlet in Greenland, from Thule (Qaanaaq) to Julianehab (Qaqortoq). I had a large map of Greenland (Kalaallit Nunaat) in my room. Of course, the weather there fascinated me. I tried understanding why Boston could at times be colder than Godthab (Nuuk) – as it will be this weekend, by the way – and by the time I was 13 I knew about the Greenland block or area of high pressure.

    1. Good sign. Let’s get this thing up here. A storm like this would be absolutely devastating for the South. Not that it hasn’t happened before, but would cripple them for days.

  15. Thank you TK!

    Wordle: 5

    SSK- hope your wife’s discharge happens today and she can continue her recovery in the comforts of home.

    1. Doesn’t the GFS have a bias of modeling too strong/fast northern stream? Especially with the split flow and when phasing is involved.

  22. Thanks, TK!

    12 was our overnight low.

    I checked a couple of times, but no aurora when I was out on the deck.

    Here’s hoping Mrs. SSK comes home today! 🙂

  23. By the time this coming weekend is done, we’ll all be suffering from an affliction called Model Fatigue

  24. GFS has serious issues, needs retirement . Again not saying we are going to get clobbered but the ratios should be insane so we don’t need a ton of moisture.

  25. I have a feeling we end up with b2b if not more big sized storms. The stars are aligned for multiple systems, now the details are clearly TBA.

  26. Keep in mind the CMC pops a 2nd system and that looks like it might be more impactful on Monday/Tuesday. A lot to watch track, been a while since a little rusty. 🙂

    1. Of course, will the UKMET be on board tomorrow? 😉

      These models keep going back and forth every day, if not every hour it seems.

  29. From Dan Federico

    HISTORIC ICE STORM COMING – A destructive and potentially catastrophic ice storm is forecast to impact the south this weekend. Widespread ice will cripple travel, cause major power outages, and down trees. This is a rare high-impact event — potentially the worst in decades since the Great Ice Storm of February 1994. Computer models are calling for widespread ice accumulations of 1-2+” — for context — a half an inch is considered catastrophic. Residents from Dallas, Shreveport, Atlanta, and Charlotte need to prepare like a hurricane is coming. Buy non-perishable food, water, gas, and charge devices. Protect pipes, plants, pets, and people. It also wouldn’t hurt to trim vulnerable tree limbs close to valuable property. I would have warm clothes in case the power goes out. You can forget about any travel north this weekend. An ice storm of this magnitude will cripple the I-20 corridor along with any flights into this area for days. Ice impacts could even be possible as far south as I-10 in Texas and western Louisiana — but the swath of greatest impacts will likely stay north. Either way, this is trending towards becoming a historic storm, and those in the path should heed warnings from local meteorologists and emergency officials. Stay tuned.

  30. Part of the discussion of NWS issued at 12:05 PM today

    Too soon to speak with any confidence on a storm that will be
    passing to our south late next weekend, potentially bringing a
    period of snow. At the moment signs point to the more significant
    impacts being contained south into the Mid-Atlantic and beyond.
    Again, low confidence as the exact track with dictate who gets snow
    and how much. What`s not in question is that we`ll have plenty of
    cold air around.

          1. Must be the mind of day I’m having. I am not a fan of a foot of bricks. What am I missing ?

            1. I am looking at it in terms of what is a major storm and what its impacts would be. A foot of powder is almost a broom storm, while a foot of wet can be a major disaster. That is all I mean. A foot of powder is nice, but not a big enough storm for me. 🙂 🙂 🙂

              Call me nuts, I don’t care. 🙂

  33. Yesterday I think I saw a QPF of 0.2 for this possible storm somewhere on Pivotal … maybe that’s changed by now. Given the cold air, I’m not sure what the ratio would be. If someone told me 25:1, I wouldn’t blink.

    1. I can give you an idea of the ratio from the Canadian model.
      This is just an idea and not cast in stone.

      Here is the Canadian 10:1 snow for 1PM Monday

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026012012&fh=150&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      Kuchera same time

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026012012&fh=150&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      Looking at near Boston, 10:1 = 9 inches, Kuchera = 14 inches.

      That computes only to about 15 or 16 to 1. Not 20 or 25.

      Now looking at it at different parts of the storm can change that some. I am thinking 20:1 will be the right number, but it could be 15 who knows for sure at this time. Closer to the event we’ll know more.

    2. I know theres a fair amount of distaste for wind chill numbers. And it may well be for a very good reason. Perhaps, I missed the explanation. My granddaughter uses WC to judge what she needs to wear to the barn to work and what blanket(s) to use for her horse.

      1. I don’t use wind chill period. If it is cold and windy, I know it will feel colder and adjust accordingly. It is that simple. I don’t need some met drilling it in my head what the WC is. I HATE HATE HATE that and SCREAM at the TV when they are posting those numbers!!!

        1. I ONLY need to know the actual temperature. I can take it from there, thank you! Oh, you can let me know what the wind speeds will be. that is fine and necessary. Wind Chill, NOPE! Keep it to yourself!!!!!

  35. Thanks TK!

    One word of caution on the ratios:

    Temperature is not the only factor by any means. Depth of saturation and lift through the snow growth layer are two other huge ones, among others. I would expect 15:1 or even 20:1 ratios in the areas of stronger banded precipitation north of the low center. However, that number does not necessarily increase, and in fact would likely decrease, as you approach the northernmost edges of the system (say, 0.25” QPF or less). At that point you’re likely getting smaller, less efficient flakes, almost more like a “snizzle”. And sublimation becomes more of a factor too.

    SNE is definitely still in play for a good snow event out of this, but if I had to take my chances right now (if I were “snow chasing” and couldn’t change my mind after today) I’d rather be in Philly than Boston, and would be more worried that maybe I should’ve chosen Richmond instead…

    TK’s “split high” pattern recognition definitely gives me pause though and leaves the door open for some north shifts too… FWIW, the 12z GEFS was pretty much unchanged from the 06z despite the large change in the op runs.

      1. I could see it being a factor, but not on its own. The flow is basically westerly or northwesterly through Sunday. You’ll only get a meaningful onshore flow component *if* the low ends up far enough north to make it happen. If that does happen, then ocean effect banding could lead to some enhancement towards the coast. But it’s not the right setup for a “private snowstorm” where eastern New England gets hit even if the main storm goes way south. So definitely more of an “ocean enhancement” potential than a stand alone “ocean effect” one.

        2. That W NW flow is what worries me in losing QPF to the dry cold air that will be in place. JPDave mentioned earlier today the wind off the water helps to combat that, but I don’t see this thing getting far enough north to do that.

  36. FWIW, to me the pattern heading well into February continues to look extremely favorable for additional SNE snow chances. Frequent cold shots coming out of Canada with potential links to southern stream energy as well as the subtropical jet starts to show up a little more, providing some energy from the Pacific without overwhelming the CONUS with Pacific air like a few weeks ago. Latest deterministic model runs are relatively tame, but I think there’s a lot left in the tank in the weeks ahead…

    1. Three threats, a 2 week lull, and 2 to 4 threats (not promises) after that.

      This marks a favorable MJO combined with other large scale favorable indices in comparison to what we’ve seen quite a lot the last few winters.

      The overall erratic behavior of MJO, which has been unfavorable for getting winter weather events of the more classic variety in this part of the world will continue, but the difference is this time the erratic behavior has a chance to bring it through “favorable phases” 7, 8, & 1 not once, but twice, over a 6 to 8 week period.

      We saw that index often drop into the circle of death after being in unfavorable phases 3 through 6, only to re-emerge back into 3 or 4 and entirely skip the rest of the cycle. Well, it’s still in the mood to do that, but this time it goes from 6 (current) through 7, 8, 1, into the circle, then back out into 7, 8, 1 again. The circle period would coincide with the lull between a series of threats that come before and after. I think some of the erratic behavior of this index is indeed tied to the after-effects of Hunga Tonga, which erupted on January 15 2022, and can have impacts of up to a decade on the entire global climate.

  38. Aside from the Operational GFS, most models today are in fairly good agreement for the weekend event, no?

    1. They’re in fairly good agreement for it being 5 days away, yes.

      The GFS doesn’t count, as far as I’m concerned, until they address the issues and correct them.

  39. Upcoming storm threat reminds me more than a little bit of the storm nicknamed the “Megalopolitan Blizzard” from February 10-12 1983. Not to say the results will be exactly the same, but the general expected set-up reminds me of it.

    My colleague and I refer to that storm, which was confidently forecast to move eastward and pass south of New England with a graze (light snow southern areas, dry to the north), as The High-Splitter, as it split the high to its north and rode much more up the coastline, producing these snowfall totals…

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bc/February_1983_nor%27easter_NESIS_map.jpg

    Again this is not me saying “Look out, this is what happens!” but the set-up makes me think of this event. One difference is there’s a little better upper level look to the pattern than the 1983 one started out with. Not sure how much difference that makes yet.

      1. At the end of the day, I’ll be satisfied with a double-digit snowfall out of this one. It’s gonna feel like a blockbuster.

        1. I certainly agree with that. Interesting week of model watching. So far, it looks promising, but things can go “South” pretty fast around here. 🙂

          1. I’m certainly far from convinced we’ll be using double digits to describe the nearest-inch measurements, but for being several days in the future still, this is one of the more interesting potentials I’ve seen in 4 years.

          2. Very true! It’s encouraging to see limited variation in the models run to run, although I think we still need a northern trend over the next couple days to get more excited.

          3. For some reason, I can’t recall that event. I don’t forget snowstorms easily. I was certainly more than old enough as I would have been 22 years old at the time.

            1. I remember it very well.

              10th grade. Looking out window to the south from middle school on a Friday midday. High cloud shield across the southern sky and me being a bit disappointed that this big storm was to whack the Mid Atlantic and miss New England.

              By days end the high cloud shield was overhead and I made note of it. By mid evening even though it was dark outside, the sky was easily seen to be solid overcast.

              Late that night, a wall of snow moved up from the south. This was a storm where it went from not snowing to heavy snow in a matter of minutes..

              Storm dumped on us overnight, 10-15 inches here in the Boston area (I think I had 13 in Woburn). It departed at midday Saturday and the sun was breaking out in the afternoon.

              Still remember walking around the neighborhood that afternoon with a good friend of mine having a great time diving over snowbanks. I think my friend was doing his best impression of his favorite football player at the time, diving over snowbanks (defensive line) into the end zone for the TD. 🙂

              1. I think I remem b er that one. It might be another one, but wife and I were out shopping and came out of the store in Dedham somewhere in the 8 to 9 PM time frame when a wall of snow came from the sky. It went from steady solid light to heavy snow in a matter of a minute or 2. It was awesome!! Loved driving home in it. In Jp we got something like 13 or 14 inches.

    3. I remember this storm well as a 7th grader in Rockaway Beach, NYC. It was one of our all time snowstorms until the event in January 1996

  40. 18 Gfs has come North, but still only delivers like 1 to 3 inches, but 12z delivered nada. SO, that is an improvement fwiw.

  41. TK – When you mentioned “High-Splitter”, does that mean the storm splits the high in two parts, allowing the system to move more up the coastline?

    I’m probably way off base, but I had to take a wild guess.

    1. Basically. It’s a little more complex than that, as it was driven by the upper level configuration, but on the weather map it appears that the storm splits high pressure in two to make a more northward advance than was otherwise being forecast.

  42. I just wanted to thank everyone for all of the well wishes & words of encouragement the last two weeks shown towards my wife , she is finally home after a really tough couple of weeks . She went in for one major planned surgery & ended up with another Emergency surgery less than a week later from a blockage from surgery number one . She has a slow recovery the next 4-6 weeks but hopefully everything she went through will be worth it . Again I send this with a tremendous amount of gratitude and sincere thanks from the both of us , now let’s get some snow while I’m home .

    8. So happy to hear she is home and that you will be there during her recovery. Wishing you both the best. I am right down the road if you guys need anything. Happy to have TK send you my number.

    9. Great news SSK! Glad you’ll be able to be home with her the next two weeks while she continues to heal.

    11. That’s so great, SSK! Thanks for the update, and all the best for these next couple of weeks.

  43. Some of these southern temps modeled for next weekend.

    Mid 20s in Atlanta.

    Around freezing in Wilmington, NC (wrightsville beach)

    They might close school some or much of the following week if they get snow/ice on Sunday. They kind of have to wait til it moderates and melts.

    Aw, too bad. No escaping winter this go round down there, as we freeze up here for months on end. 🙂

  44. Unfortunately when the bitter cold moves in there always seems to be more house fires. Some of the fires caused by faulty and older heating systems or space heaters. Hopefully with the bitter cold at weeks end we won’t see or hear about house fires.

  45. Well, not that it matters that much, because it’s TWC (and it pains me to even say that much, given how great they once were), but I’m happy they are confident enough to issue a map of snow totals for the entire late week / weekend event as of today.

  46. Thanks TK.

    We were away this past weekend skiing in northern VT but had about 6″ of new snow to clear when we got back to Coventry last night. Based on surrounding reports, it looks like we picked up 2-3″ from the Saturday system and 3-4″ from the Sunday system. We were a little too far east to get into the heaviest snow Saturday and a little too far west on Sunday but can’t complain about 6″ over the weekend. Woke up to an additional coating this morning and there was actually a 2 hour school delay here.

    Looking forward to this snowpack being around awhile with all the cold weather and additional snow chances coming over the next few weeks.

    1. By the way, ski conditions were great at Sugarbush Saturday after picking up 10″ of new snow the previous couple of days and a few inches during the day while we were there. Sunday, we went to Jay Peak and it was a mob scene with long lift lines but it improved as the day went on (and especially after the Pats game started). They have SO much snow there. With 275″ now on the year, I’d estimate the base in the woods was probably 5-6 feet and I was ducking under tree branches to get by. I snapped a picture of this ski patrol storage hut (which is only about mid elevation from the base to summit) to give you an idea how deep the snow was:

      https://imgur.com/pLubhwr

      And when the skies cleared around midday, we got a great shot of the summit and the tram terminal at the top…

      https://imgur.com/HletgDV

        1. Not as well as up north for sure but Stratton for instance is up to 88″ on the year and picked up 10″ from the weekend storm so they arent doing too bad now either. And it has been pretty consistently cold so they have been making snow as well. They are up to 85/99 trails as of today. Killington is at 147/155 trails and Okemo 116/127. Pretty good conditions out there right now and should continue to get better with the upcoming pattern.

  48. MUCH better viewing chances for the aurora tonight. Already seeing some slight color on the horizon. Peaking this evening.

  50. 18z Euro is a monster hit with a fully phased storm for Sunday from what I am reading on the American Weather forum.

    18z EPS (Euro Ensemble Mean) has come north as well.

  54. Tomer Burg
    @burgwx
    2h

    As I’ve said earlier today, I would be very careful with posting snow maps for the weekend storm this far out.

    There remains significant uncertainty with the amplitude and progression of both the SW US trough and the north stream trough, which influences their interaction. This drives both the event duration and how far north heavy snow expands into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast.

    Until we have a better handle on these features, we can’t reliably rule out anything from no snow to over a foot of snow between the NYC-Boston corridor.

    https://x.com/burgwx/status/2013732049350230067?s=20

    1. Sorry I over cooked it. Here is the qpf map at 144 hours.
      0.5 to .75 inch, but still SNOWING with plenty to go at 144 hours.

      https://ibb.co/gLLhtBpc

      So figure at least 1 inch qpf which with ratio would be about 15 inches and if it were .75 and not .5 then even more.

      Sorry for overdoing it. I looked at the national map instead of the NorthEast.

    3. The 12z Canadian actually did the same thing that the 18z Euro is doing popping that second low after the initial storm passes and prolonging the snow throughout Monday. That run verbatim was 15-20″ as well. Peculiar setup on both models and I doubt it actually happens that way but is nice to look at.

      If this thing comes far enough north, it will be very easy to get 10″+ without a lot of QPF given the very high ratios. That said, the very dry cold air will be difficult to penetrate and could be a limiting factor if the heavier precip stays south and we are on the northern fringe.

    1. Now that is graphic!!! I don’t want to get my hopes up. I am trying to take it one day at a time, enjoying each run as it comes out. I’ll feel better if we are still seeing these type runs come Saturday and the HRES join in!!! TOO MUCH can still go wrong at this point. Even so, we haven’t seen anything this promising in some time!!!!

  57. If that thing lifts far enough north to get in here, it’s not going to take much to qualify as what I like to call a “fluff bomb” like someone blew up a giant feather pillow at 15,000 feet. 😉

    And no I have NO clue yet how much snow would fall. That part is just going to have to wait. 🙂

    1. At 14F. Thinking my shore walk tomorrow AM is 50-50. I don’t walk when the temp is in single digits.

      1. I love those kinds of walks. The colder it gets, it will be because it’s more calm.

  62. Morning, things look like they are holding steady from yesterdays thinking. Plenty of time to keep watching

    1. I get the feeling we are looking at a standard 8-12 [
      Inch ho-hum snow event.
      Still time for that to change.

      We shall see.

  63. Snow #’s will become more clear at about 72 hours prior to onset. Everything from zero snow to over a foot is on the table at this range with the amount of potential hit or shift southward this system still has.

    New post…

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