DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 9-13)
While this week will be quieter overall than recent weather has been, it won’t be without a little winter action. We start with a cold and dry day today with high pressure in control, but a quick-moving clipper low will race our way via the Great Lakes Tuesday, with advancing clouds after a little early-day sun. By day’s end into evening, thicker overcast will produce a swath of snow across the region with some accumulation. While it’s not destined to be a major snowfall, it will cause some travel disruption for a few hours, especially in areas near and north of I-90 where it will be steadiest and heaviest. The snow may be mixed with some rain along the South Coast initially due to slightly milder air in place there. This tapers off later at night, but as the low starts to intensify offshore as it departs on Wednesday, an inverted trough swinging around its back side will initiate some snow showers and snow squalls, mainly in southeastern NH and eastern MA during the afternoon to early evening. Coverage should be pretty widespread with some reduced visibility and minor additional accumulation before they pull away to the south and southeast by mid evening. Fair, seasonably chilly weather follows this for Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds in.
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-10 except -3 to +4 in some lower elevations. Wind W under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunshine fades behind increasing clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow in the evening, may start mixed with rain along the South Coast – snow accumulation of a coating to 1 inch South Coast, 1 to 3 inches I-90 belt, 3 to 5 inches north of Route 2 with highest amounts in northeastern MA and southeastern NH. Snow ends with breaking clouds overnight. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers and snow squalls from north to south in the afternoon, favoring southeastern NH and eastern MA with minor additional accumulation possible. Highs 30-37. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 14-18)
Unsettled weather potential mid period but next storm system may be a miss to the south. Overall pattern is quieter with slightly variable but mostly near normal temperatures for mid February.
DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 19-23)
No big changes. Up-and-down temps but averaging not far from normal for season. Watching for a couple disturbances but no strong indications of major storminess at this time.
Thank you TK.
https://stormhq.blog/2026/02/09/weekly-outlook-february-9-15-2026/
Thanks TK !
Wordle: 4
Excellent!
I finally got it in 5 after discarding the solution because I wasn’t pronouncing it correctly. š
I Didn’t think it was spelled that way either, but I gave it a shot anyway and VIOLA! there it was in 4. š
Joining you in the 5 car if itās all right!!! I am still surprised at the spelling
May I join you in the 4 car?
Awesome 4!!
Wordle in 4 as well!
Welcome to the 4 car Doc.
Good morning and thank you TK.
10 this morning, up to 15 now
Ocean: 38
12Z HRRR shows about 2 -3 inches in Boston area for tomorrow night, with more to the North. Hmmm where did I see this before?
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2026020912&fh=48&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=hrrr
Wordle: 4
SuperBowl: Not a whole lot to say. The better team won, plain and simple. The Seattle defense was like a impenetrable fortress! Even so had the Patriots O-line given Maye just a modicum of protection, I think the Pats would have fared better. Will Campbell is a steaming pile of CRAP and needs to go!!!! Fill that position with a solid player and the results would have been different. Maye made some serious errors, but I believe they were mostly caused by the failure of the O-Line. I’m mostly giving Maye a pass on this one except for that BRUTAL BRUTAL BRUTAL interception into tight coverage. That ball should NEVER have been thrown!!!!
The Patriots had a wonderful season and no shame losing to a superior team.
Thanks!
Wordle 5
Thank you TK!
Wordle:5
Great season for the Pats and although the game wasn’t pretty, they should hold their heads high for even making it that far. Not many people saw that coming.
Wow. Itās busy and fun 5 car today.
Great wordling to everyone
Thanks, TK.
I didn’t follow much football this season. But what I can say is that making it to a Super Bowl in and of itself is quite a feat, especially when the team went 4 and 13 the year before.
Reinforcements in the offensive line can help. But Maye also needs to learn when to throw balls away. He holds on to it for too long sometimes. The sacks and fumbles are a concern. Not just last night. And with a tougher schedule next year, he’s going to face really good defenses. He’s got a lot of talent, but decisionmaking could improve.
How true!!
The positives…
-The loss is a learning experience.
-The tougher schedule next season is the BEST thing for Maye, and the team in general.
The o-line does need improvement. It was exposed in the playoffs if it hadn’t been already. They got away with it for a few games. There was no way they were getting away with it last night. They needed that offense to be on its game and it starts with protecting the QB. If that doesn’t happen, you’re not making many plays.
Agree . Absolutely #1 demand is rebuild that Oline ( they have the money & picks ) I hope this Defense can stay together & even add to it because this defense is lights out if healthy , rumor has it Crosby wants to play here . As far as Drake goes I like him a lot but he had a really bad playoff & Super Bowl experience as he was a totally different QB. Spend money Kraft
What evidence do you have that Kraft will spend money in the offseason? Heās just happy to be in the playoffs like everyone else.
Ace I believe that the patriots Spent the most out of the league last off season & I am hoping this off season will be the same . He would be crazy no to after what he saw this year with the team wide improvements
12Z NAM Kuchera snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026020912&fh=45&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Snowfall maps from around the dial: https://ibb.co/YFssVGB2
And we now know Drake was indeed hurt saying he could not feel his arm .
Iām sorry. I have some other nonsense going on so missed this. He was hurt before the game (in Denver maybe) or during the superbowl
Before but not saying . He said after game he was shot up and could not feel his arm
Tx ssk
Thank you, TK. Up to 19 from a low of 7
Beware of rampant AI posts about both the Super Bowl and the Olympics .. events that did not happen. You can tell by how they are written and often by AI faked photos that accompany them.
They are going to be shared all over social media and this will continue until such sites decide there’s no longer a reason to have fake content just so people will use the platform.
I apologized above. Please remove if you have time.
Agree. They’re rampant. I’ve been fooled plenty of times.
By the way, Super Bowl ads often reflect trends in American society at a given point in time. This year was no different. AI featured prominently in several, Crypo in one, weight loss drugs in two others, and then there were the politically sensitive ones (Epstein and even the MAHA spot).
I wonder if thatās why some of the ads seemed so bad to me
I said this above but itās only going to get worse as AI advancements get made. I was remarking to a friend that I never answer the phone for numbers I donāt know because Iām afraid theyāll take a voice print of me to generate me saying things I never said. It only takes a small voice sample now.
Just look at the volume of AI commercials last night. It doesnāt feel good, Iāll tell you that much.
We’ll see more of it before we finally learn to live “with” it.
It pretty much happens with any new tech. Always looks like the end of the world first, then after the drama subsides we realize there’s a more sane approach.
That said, the AI issue will be used for selfish reasons for a while before its use becomes more practical in a widespread way.
When AI was first introduced, I groaned. Many thought it was a promising step forward. My thought was that it was a VERY risky step forward. I also never answer a call I donāt recognize, but I have not long before AI.
NWS Snowfall Map. Perhaps a little underdone in N and NE MA. Might have to do with the timeframe being covered.
https://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalSnow.jpg
I’d tweak that up a tiny bit, but just a tiny bit. It would look very similar to both the HRRR & RRFS “Model Snowfall” forecasts for the event.
The Model Snowfall appears on the short range guidance in addition to the 10:1 and Kuchera. They are the model’s snow ratio forecasts for the region, and I find it to be generally better than Kuchera. Certainly was on the last event.
HRRR and RRFS seem to have similar QPFs. The NWS is close but a little low perhaps. It might be that the map above goes to just 7 AM Wednesday.
Thanks, TK!
Taking TK’s advice, here is the RRFSA Model Ratio (IN) map:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rrfs_a&p=snowfall_acc-imp&rh=2026020912&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Yes, I did see that. I think the map below covers though the 6Z while the Pivotal goes through to 12Z. I am not sure if that makes a difference though.
https://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalSnow.jpg
Still precip going on at 6Z. All done by 12Z
The Pats had a good year for sure. We should always remember that there are 12 teams that have never won a Super Bowl including 4 teams that have never even played in one … I know 2 of them are the Browns and Lions.
Pundits will weigh in on every possible thing you can think of. For me it’s most important that they do not lose their culture, belief, spirit, and determination. There are at least a half dozen teams that went into complete nosedives after losing in the Super Bowl. Those half dozen or so are “case studies” in what not to do.
And againā¦..great post.
Thank you.
Thanks TK!
Hard to be too disappointed in the game result. Was an awesome and unexpected ride. But letās face it, thereās no guarantees theyāll be back. Historically, āone hit wonderā years like this, that donāt end in titles, have not translated into sustained successā¦ but I hope next year leads to more meaningful development on offense, even though the win-loss record probably wonāt be what it was this season.
Weather: as expected, the Pacific is really going to flex its muscles the next 2 weeks, providing a huge winter weather boost for the West and making it difficult to sustain deep cold or significant storm threats on the East Coast. I do think thereās potential for a return to a pattern more in line with the last several weeks beyond then, by late February and into March. But my confidence is not as high on that as it was for Januaryās pattern. The 2014-2015 similarities have finally run out, as that winter did not see the sort of February Pacific interlude that this winter will. So a little murkier, for me at least, on what comes laterā¦
My take on looking at posts around social media, they basically think if the Pats fix a few mistakes they are automatic for winning it all next year. NOT the case. This has to be earned and next year will be NO EASY TASK. 1) The issues from this year need to be addressed. 2) We have to hope there are no other issues that develop between now and next season. 3) They’ll be playing a harder schedule. 4) Their success this year will make them targets for the rest of the league – their opponents will be fired up.
This season was a great learning experience. Now it’s a waiting game to see what they do with that. It’s not going to just be easy by any stretch. But I see a lot of fans out there already setting themselves up for disappointment…
As for the weather, yes. The next 2 weeks are the “break”. Not as cold. Not as snowy (though not without a couple events / threats). Pattern improves for snow / cold after that into March, but not to the same level as it would seem. None of it is a surprise to me. We’ll see how it plays out in real time, though.
Thank you again for your thoughts as always!
š
1 week away from the “Pres. Day Potential”, I’m only paying attention to ensemble trends.
This morning I highlighted that potential and leaned toward a miss to the south as a very preliminary idea.
The 12z ensemble means from ECMWF & GFS are in disagreement with their simulations. ECMWF shows a stormier scenario while GFS is a little less enthusiastic. It’ll be monitor-mode for a few more days, while the more intensive focus needs to be on the Tuesday / Wednesday system.
I donāt know about the Browns but the last championship for the Lions was in 1957.
There was no Super Bowl in 1957. The first super Bowl was in 1967.
The team they beat was the Browns 59-14.
I know there was no Super Bowl back then. In those days there still was a championship game to play for, such as it was.
Technically, the Lions are considered āchampionsā by the NFL for 1957.
The first professional football champion decided by an actual game was in 1932, the year my mother was born.
I think there were some winters around that year that are some of the warmest on record. I have no idea why I think that. It must have been something I looked up at one point.
Today was warm in Swampscott. We hit 32F.
Won by the Chicago Bears on December 18, 1932. The game was played indoors btw.
The game was played inside āChicago Stadiumā. I assume it was like our own Boston Garden back then. Up until now I never heard of it.
TK – Jyi my mother was born in 1929. I didnāt know our mothers were close in age. š
*Jfyi
You most definitely heard of it, as you saw many highlights of games by the Chicago Blackhawks and the unforgettable Chicago Bulls teams with Michael Jordan, etc. … The Bulls won 3 of their 6 championships in the 1990s in that very building before it was replaced following the 1994 season.
Yes, now I remember. Thanks TK.
I figured out why the Patriots lost yesterday. Itās all my fault. I got a special Patriots gingerbread cookie and I totally forgot about it. Not eating it made the universe think I doubted them. Sorry, everyone. Iāll still eat it so the universe knows I still like them. But, sadly, it will have to be Tuesday evening since I can only have fluids today ahead of my colonoscopy. Boy do I want that cookie right now.
š
Best wishes for a successful test, Dr. S!
Feel better soon!
Just had one in October and no problems. As a prior cancer patient, I have to do these with more frequency.
It was Eric Fisher’s fault. He posted that the weather this week was great for a parade a couple days before the game. š
Patriots are now 6-6 in Super Bowls. I had no idea they lost so many. Oh well.
They’ve lost to the Bears, Packers, Giants (twice), Eagles, and Seahawks.
They are also tied for the most super bowl wins in NFL history with the Steelers at 6.
If losing 6 is “losing so many”, then winning 6 is also “winning so many”. Right?
The fact they are .500 in the Super Bowl just tells you the talent of teams that reach that game.
It would be unrealistic to think they should have gone 12-0 in their super bowl appearances.
Ugh. Wishing for excellent news. Iām due in June.
I got a kick out of the headline on page 3 of todayās Boston Herald:
WARMER DAYS AHEAD, MORE SNOW
An oxymoron to say the least.
It’s not an oxymoron in mid winter, and I’ve explained why many times.
“Warmer” is relative. And the “more snow” in the headline is referring to tomorrow night’s event.
Matt and Danielle are forecasting slightly higher amounts for the Essex County coast. Large or small event, I seem to be in the jackpot zone.
TK is also highlighting part of northeastern MA for some higher amounts (along with southeastern NH).
Boston is running double-digits ahead of normal on seasonal snowfall to date, just over 10 inches, and will end up a little further ahead of that pace starting in 24 hours.
Boston’s temp departures for meteorological winter…
December: -4.4F.
January: -1.9F.
February (through the 8th): -8.2F
The numbers speak for themselves.
It’s been a wonderful winter thus far. No complaints here.
Today was a wonderful day to be outside!
https://ibb.co/j9s42hG0
It was. I was out clearing my car and the sun not only felt great but had melted a lot on my car so it was doable for me
It is about February 8-10 where the higher sun angle starts to make a notable difference in how a cold day feels and also becomes more of an aid in melting snow off cars and paved surfaces. Some of you have noticed that today. š
I’d also like to note the following: This is going to be yet another instance this winter where a clipper-style low passing to our NORTH that produces measurable / plowable snow in the WHW forecast area.
A lot of people automatically count that track out for measurable snow, and while yes it’s less common than a clipper passing to the south, it is most definitely not impossible, as we’ve now seen on a few occasions (and will see again) this winter alone.
I think down here gets less snow tomorrow Tk correct c-1 maybe
But who knows we overachieved down here on every single event . I bet pembroke / Marshfield may have a higher total with all the storms together than Boston
Thanks all for the comments above.
Here are the updated snowfall forecasts from around the dial: https://ibb.co/NgqB5GcN
Thanks Doc. Getting a bit more interesting.
As an addition, someone on another board requested info on snow up north so I put these together for maine/NH: https://ibb.co/QjxdqpGt
Thanks TK.
Definite shift stronger and further south with the band of snow tomorrow night. What looked like little to nothing here in CT now could be as much 2-4″, at least in northern CT, if you look at the 18z NAM, Nam3km, and RDPS. You can see that reflected in a few of the TV snowmaps above.
18z NAM Snow:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026020918&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
18z 3km NAM Snow:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026020918&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
18z RDPS Snow:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2026020918&fh=48&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc-imp&m=rdps
18z HRRR is a bit less enthused….
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026020918&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Likely we will see advisories posted tomorrow for 2-4″ of snow with isolated higher amounts NE MA.
Regarding the President’s Day threat, models still all over the place….
12z GFS disintegrates upon arrival and is essentially no impact. It’s ensembles are ALL over the place with spread from Florida to Maine. Looks completely confused and I would toss it for now.
12z CMC Ensemble Mean was near the benchmark and looked like a decent hit.
12z Euro Op was a huge hit but coastal hugger that would introduce some rain/mix changeover south of the Pike. All snow and 20″ of it closer to the NH border. Ensemble mean though was further southeast. Plenty of decent hits though in the Euro ensembles.
12z ICON was an inland runner and rainstorm. Its ensembles however look nothing like that and its mean was WAY southeast.
So no clarity at this point which is to be expected at 7 days out and in a pattern transition. We’ll keep watching!