DAYS 1-5 (MAY 13-17)
We enter an unsettled weather period today which lasts into Friday as upper level low pressure drifts across our region. A related surface low in the Great Lakes sends its warm front our way today with brief rain possible and a wind shift to south. Before its cold front can cross the region on Thursday, the low redevelops to our south, becoming the main storm system while the initial storm system to the north weakens and dissipates. This low will then spin in the waters south to east of New England later Thursday into Friday before moving away. This evolution provides shifting winds and widespread rainfall for us. As the new surface low evolves our wind will shift from southerly to easterly from Wednesday to Thursday, then to northerly on Friday as the system begins to pull away. The weekend features a different pattern. Low pressure is gone and we find a west to southwest air flow transporting much warmer air into the region along with fair weather as an area of high pressure builds off the Mid Atlantic Coast.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Brief light rain period possible mid morning to midday, favoring areas from Boston west and north. Highs 56-63, coolest coast. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH shifting to S 5-15 MPH with higher gusts by late-day.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 49-56. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts over 20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers. Highs 56-63. Wind S shifting to E 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Numerous to scattered showers. Lows 47-54. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to isolated showers. Highs 55-62. Wind E shifting to N 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N shifting to W up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 65-72 South Coast, 72-79 elsewhere. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 68-75 South Coast, 75-82 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (MAY 18-22)
Back-door cold front potential May 18 with fair but cooler weather, especially eastern coastal locations. Fair, warm weather May 19 into May 20 before a cold front brings a shower / t-storm chance later May 20, followed by a slightly cooler air mass with dry weather later next week.
DAYS 11-15 (MAY 23-27)
Watching the potential for low pressure passing to our south around the middle of the Memorial Day Weekend. Whether or not it’s close enough for a wet weather interruption remains to be seen and will be monitored. Fair weather much of this period otherwise with variable temperatures.
RRFS goes full time operational and replaces those other models as of August 31. Delay was used to tweak and fine-tune the performance. Many that are judging it as a bad model are actually viewing the wrong version of the model which was left running and up online while its updated version was sitting there on some platforms unnoticed (by many, not all). 😉
Thank you.
Interesting, I was reading Mets on-line who seemed to be, not in favor of this. But, they certainly didn’t mention what you have mentioned in your post.
Followup, so, I use pivotal weather and can call up the RRFS A
Which version are we seeing, the better version or less better version?
Good morning and thank you TK
52 after low of 47
Ocean: 50
Wordle; a phew 6. Thought I was going to fail for sure. Once again nothing with 1st guess. Can you say caboose?
Nice !
I can say caboose. See you there. Glad you got it
Welcome aboard the Phew car!!!
🙂
Wordle in 5 today.
Very nice !!
Nice 5!
Strangely tough word today. Nice 5
Thanks TK !
Failed on Wordle.
First two guesses, 10 different letters, had nothing.
Guess 3, (5) new letters, had 1 letter. 1 out of 15
By the 5th guess, I had 3 uncovered, even in the correct spot, but guessed another incorrect option for the last guess.
Oh well, onto tomorrow.
It is a tough one. You’ll get it tomorrow
Sorry Tom. Get em tomorrow!
Yup !!!!!!!!!!
Wordle is an odd word. While my new first words yesterday helped a lot, today I had one letter with first, nada with second and a second letter with third
I’m jumping on the caboose with a PHEW 6
Thanks you, TK. Up to a cloudy 50 from a low of 44
Thanks TK. Would love this system in Jan/Feb.
As far as the RRFS I thought it was terrible this winter. Consistently showing wrong forecast.
Except that was NOT the version they will be releasing.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES19/ABI/SECTOR/can/GEOCOLOR/20261331240_GOES19-ABI-can-GEOCOLOR-4500×2250.jpg
In eastern Canada, the snow cover has receded to the around the southern tip of James Bay, latitude 53.5N
That has made some significant progress, which is good for us, eventually.
Not to mention the ocean off of Boston is now up to 50.
That is definitely helping when the wind goes EAST.
HUGE difference between 40 and 50 in that regard. Better still when it gets to 60.
Indeed !!
Happy with a Wordle 5 today, tough one
Thanks TK