Saturday Update

90 Comments

10:13AM

Some of you were awakened, or kept up late, by thunderstorms in the overnight hours. Quite impressive for October and fueled by dew point temperatures in the 60s, quite muggy. With that all offshore now, we are finding that the optimistic forecast for today is going to indeed work out, with the last sprinkles around this morning now gone, and clouds getting set to yield to sunshine, which will dominate the afternoon. The air will continue to be very mild today even as it dries out, with a dry slot of air moving in from the southwest around the upper level low pressure area still centered to the northwest of southern New England.

We still have to get the upper low by the region on Sunday, so  look for a day that starts bright, but then sees some clouds rotate in and develop during the afternoon and evening (though any showers should stay in the mountains far to the west and north). It will also be cooler on Sunday, and even more so on Monday as the upper low finally heads out through eastern Canada and delivers a reinforcing shot of Canadian air to New England.

Beyond Monday, I’m still leaning toward a week that may be a bit on the fence, at least in terms of cloud cover. For now, I’m going to keep things on the dry side, as this pattern has been proving to be drier overall than many of the longer range outlooks have pointed to. I’ve been a skeptic of the wet forecasts myself, and continue to feel that way. Rainfall deficits continue for the region.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Clouds depart, sun takes over. Highs around 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 40s. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine dominates then shares the sky with clouds later. Highs around 60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 39. High 59.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 44. High 63.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 44. High 60.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 45. High 60.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 46. High 63.

90 thoughts on “Saturday Update”

  1. Thanks TK. The upcoming week looks good! 🙂

    The WBZ parking lot could use a new drainage system. Joe Joyce’s car almost became submerged.

    Also, Joe’s blog hinted at the polar jet becoming more active come November with a colder and potentially wintry pattern. I believe there is no correlation regarding snow in November unlike October. 😉

    1. The ‘BZ parking lot has been a problem for years. I recall visiting Barry in the weather office in the late 1980s and talking to him about flooding issues and a few times they had to run out and move cars before they went under water.

      Joe is probably reacting to the GFS’s tendency to change the pattern more hard core at the end of each run. I’m tempted, but reserved, in making that leap at the moment.

  2. Thanks, TK. I heard the thunder last night and it was pretty loud. Earlier at night around 10 or so, not sure, I was up and watched the thunderstorm move north and it came right over us. It managed to stay together for awhile – we got lots of rain.

    Beautiful day today – warm and summery out but the foliage which does seem brighter than the last few wks. reminds us that it is autumn.

    1. Warm days are a part of Autumn as well.

      It’s funny how a lot of people tend to associate persistent chill with Autumn and warm days with Spring, when in reality it is just the opposite.

      Autumn sees us dealing with influences from lingering warm ground and warm ocean waters from the summer, while Spring is impacted by the cold ocean water (when the wind is right) and cold ground from the lack of sun and snowcover (most of the time .. forget about last year haha) from winter.

      2. I’m looking forward to your winter forcast Tk. Deadline is coming soon. Been doing some more research and still on board with my call.

    1. Thanks JJ. I hope you enjoy as well! We drove out to Sturbridge to meet friends for a late lunch today. The folliage along the pike was lovely. It was even more spectacular on the way home with the low sun behind us shining on the leaves. What a day!

  7. My aunt got married today and i was worried that it was going to keep raining through the morning and early afternoon but instead the sun came out just when we pulled into the church parking lot. I think my grandmother (my dads and my aunts mother) had something to do with it up in heaven 🙂

  8. seems like we will be near normal for high temperatures buy a good 4-10 degrees higher than normal for low temperatures

  9. Interesting watching the models scenarios (which of course are all over the place on a day to day basis) on what evolves in the Caribbean and its interaction with the northern stream flow as the system tracks towards higher latitudes.

  10. That tropical wave in the Carribbean now has a 70% chance of developing. It still to me does not look that well organized and the thunderstorms look to be away from the center which seems to be the case for a lot of these storms that have developed in the Atlantic this year.

  11. Before anyone gets too excited about the 06z GFS “Almost Perfect Storm” scenario, it probably won’t happen quite like that. 🙂

    1. That is quite a solution! There is that first rain event too. Have you looked at the NAO forecast for the next 14 days? Kind of two different camps towards the end of the period.

    2. what did I miss – perfect storm scenario?? Is that just because of the date or was someone, somewhere saying this could set up like that?

      TK I will go back but not sure if you saw my question about the possibility of a tropical system “S” affecting the eastern seaboard next weekend. We are trying to decide which weekend my SIL should fly up here from Atlanta. It’s either next weekend or the one after. Thank you!

      2. Odds are against it, but we may have to watch a storm of some kind sitting south of us, probably at most a hybrid. Where it goes remains to be seen. The model solutions are less than desirable.

        1. Thanks TK – since she is flying from Atlanta and as a flight attendant always flies standby it may be well worth postponing until November 3 weekend.

  12. Happy with staying optimistic about the weather for yesterday. It was not easy to forecast the opposite of Barry last Sunday looking ahead to yesterday. I told him why I was going with the progressive solution, for clearing Saturday, and then prayed it would work out. What a great day at a local farm yesterday afternoon, pumpkin picking and enjoying cider donuts and a cold apple cider. 🙂

    Today’s advecting stratocumulus & developing diurnal cumulus are working out as well. Expect tomorrow will be chillier than expected because of a quick tap of chilly air on a NW wind behind the departing upper low. Still no changes there.

    1. 972 mb !!! into SE Pennsylvania…..with the negative NAO and the Atlantic likely to be all blocked up, I think thats why the GFS and the EURO are trending along this shared idea.

      1. Watch in 2 days, this trend will have a track into North Carolina and most of the impacts will miss to New England’s south and then eventually west…..

      2. For what it’s worth, the GGEM was picking up on this days ago, but it usually conjures up something crazy that far out, esp this time of year

  14. Usually with a NAO that is too negative, sometimes it ends up causing too much of a northwest few over us. That wouldn’t be a bad thing in a situation like this.

    1. Vicki…take these dates with a grain of salt, because there’s likely to be a zillion changes…but sometime early next week.

    2. Vicki, here is the 12Z GFS for tues 10/30.
      http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp12216.gif
      Shows the system in a very interesting location, where is goes from there is the big question. Some have it getting to this position and actually moving west and south into the coast near PA from what Tom said. We’ll have to watch to see how neg that NAO gets and the interaction with the tough coming through at the same time.

  16. Meanwhile I rushed through everything today to be ready for the game at 1:00. Well I am certainly ready for the game at 4:00:(

    1. And the Patriots are off to a great start !! 🙁

      Their secondary is atrocious. They just made Mark Sanchez look like Dan Marino on the Jets first drive.

    2. Isn’t that strange. If I am seeing things correctly, the GFS has this thing impacting us Sunday to Thursday.

  18. Here’s my issue with both models: That entire evolution is based on something trigged by a tropical system in which both models have trouble handling to begin with. I’d put confidence in that solution at about 25%.

    When I post ‘The Week Ahead’ in a while it’s going to be vague and low confidence next weekend. I’m playing this one safe until I can get a reasonable handle on what I think might happen around here. 🙂

    1. A confidence of 25% this far out is actually pretty high for you TK 😉 Makes me think u are at least somewhat intrigued by the idea. IF the system ends up developing into a tropical cyclone, which we might not know until early-mid of the upcoming week, will your confidence increase to this thing affecting us in some capacity?

      1. Yes it would, but only if it doesn’t bury itself in the Caribbean. And there is also an area of development possible to its northeast, which may get involved in messing things up to not look like the model solutions.

    1. The trough that will probably not be where the model has it, not the same shape, and not the same amplitude. 🙂

    1. John, here we go again. This defense of ours makes me nervous. Anything less than a 2 touchdown lead and its nerve wrack city !

      1. I do not care what my SIL says. I have stopped listening. We do not look like a Super Bowl team. Darn I hate when I get negative. I’m just not a negative person 🙁

      2. If they loose this game tom, not good. Pats have a ton of work to get done. Unfortunately time on the season is ticking away. Not good Tom.

        1. Well, the secondary is not good, but I thought they’d have more of a pass rush this year and the last 2 or 3 games, it has disappeared. Seems like they are blocking Chandler Jones with 2 guys and they cant get anyone else to pressure. Uh oh, fumble !

            1. My SIL has moves from no problem to 1/3 of games doesn’t decide anything. Win or lose we have a lot to get together

      1. As Scott says, he posted a snow map based on the GFS forecast for Oct 31, and he’s also hinted about a tropcial: “When the East warms up in October, watch the tropics” .. Yeah maybe we should watch it, but it’s like baiting the public before forecasting the ‘big one’. Yes, tropicals happen in October. One good example is Lilly & Marco in 1990, both came up the East Coast. But everyone is always so sensitive to hype that as soon as a suggestion is made, the stories start running around.

    2. I cringed a bit after he posted that snowfall map to all of his followers who don’t realize how unreliable a model can be 240 hours out.

  22. Every single week it is coming to this. Shame on the pats. And shame on the receivers who dropped easily catchable balls. Win or loose this team sucks.

    1. John ill disagree that it sucks. We have only ever lot by a few points. Sucks is the Red Sox. Or a 0-6 score We just have a lot to get together and do remember in the past we have gotten it done.

      2. Sorry vicki. I love the pats, but they just have so much work to get done. They got so lucky to get this win. Not that good this year vicki.

        1. John SIL said…….Pats record last year 13-3. Packers 14-2. What was giants record last year? Not a Super Bowl team. Yet they won the super bowl. Continuing …my NFL lesson :). Only 2 teams in NFL that can some into our stadium and beat us. 49ers and giants.

          1. BTW. I go on what i see at the moment. SIL has a tremendous grasp of the stats. I may sound off but I sure as heck ain’t arguing with him :). No one can say who will win the SB. Last year certainly showed that 🙂

    2. Well, your cornerback shouldnt be the special teams returner, but thank goodness for Brady, giving them a chance to put this in the win column in OT.

    1. Lucky? What was the lucky play?

      All I saw was all out determination from the defense to help the offense. The offense did its job in the end, they put three on the board. Ninkovich had one hell of a game and it was fitting that the game ended with the ball in his hands.

      So how we’re they lucky and why are you so certain about a nice weekend?

      1. I think they got lucky when the Jets receiver dropped the ball at about the 9 yard line. That would have been a 1st down with about 2 minutes to go and the Pats only ahead by 3.

        Then again, a win is a win, whether it goes this way or you win 57-0.

  26. I like watching close games but not if the patriots are in it. i want to see a blow out . Our offense is not clicking this year and our front four defense saved the pats behind. We finally won a close game. we lost every close game before this and we won big when we did win. Whats up with our passing offense. we have the weapons lets go.

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