The Week Ahead

136 Comments

10:50PM

Interesting weather day in southeastern New England on Sunday. It may not have been a big storm, but watching the atmosphere wring out snow over a small area all day long was fascinating from a weather geek’s perspective. It’s all winding down late this Sunday night as this blog is being written and now it’s time to look ahead to the weather of the next 7 days.

Low pressure will intensify offshore and will be moving away Monday, which will be a chilly and windy but fair day. Fair weather will continue Tuesday as high pressure dominates. A disturbance from the west will not phase with energy to its south on Wednesday, and will just produce lots of clouds and a chance of some snow showers. A break Thursday will be followed by another disturbance on  Friday. Current indications are that it will be cold enough for snow at least inland and possibly marginal closer to the coast and over southern areas, but that again phasing with energy to its south will not take place until it is moving away, so that we get a much smaller event versus a bigger storm. One fairly reliable forecasting model has been showing a larger storm, so it will be watched, just in case it starts to swing in that direction. Fair weather and moderating temperatures are expected next weekend.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Any lingering light snow mainly in eastern MA winding down with clouds breaking. Lows 18-23. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 33-38. Wind NW to N 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 14-19. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 28-33. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 18. High 36.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 16. High 35.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix/rain. Low 25. High 35.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 18. High 38.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 21. High 45.

136 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  1. TK, thanks for update and reposting the quiz. I think I saw a model forecasting next weekend’s storm for Saturday.

  2. Thanks TK for the update. I find it very interesting that the radar all afternoon into the evening still looking like very steady snow falling but actually harmless flakes fluttering around outside.

    TK…Why isn’t the radar and “reality” matching up?

    1. They switched the radar to “clear air mode” so it picks up extremely light echoes and they appear on the display as steady light snow would appear in precip mode.

  3. Wanna bet that if it was the Patriots instead of the Ravens on SF’s 4th down play, a flag would most certainly have been thrown on that holding (or non-holding) call? 😉

    1. Philip – I was thinking the very same thing at the time…..I’ll take the bet that you are absolutely correct.

  7. 00z gfs has no storm for next friday..But kind of similar situation as today light precip and snow showers from what I can see. Will await the EURO

    1. It does have something there, but mainly a light snow event (mix coast). If the Euro is the only one calling for a phasing system after all the 00z’s are in, I’m not buying it.

      1. Thanks TK…But aren’t we 5 days out and if the Euro still is calling for a decent storm something to watch? It seems everytime we think we are getting a storm 5 days out it goes OTS maybe this one will be the storm that does happen.

  10. Thanks TK.
    Congrats to the Ravens on what turned out to be a great Super Bowl.
    I am not buying the EURO solution despite what the NWS from Upton NY says in their discussion. The trend is your friend and the trend is these systems develop to late to give us a significant event. I am thinking weak system late week.
    STILL QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE CMC/GFS AND THE
    ECMWF/UKMET ON WHETHER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS PHASE
    THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN SOME SUPPORT FOR THE ECMWF/UKMET
    SOLUTION BY A FEW INDIVIDUAL GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS…RUN TO RUN
    CONSISTENCY IN THE ECMWF AND BETTER OVERALL HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE
    OF THE ECMWF INT HIS TIME RANGE…USED THE 00Z ECMWF IN THIS TIME
    RANGE.

    THE RESULT IS EXPECT A COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID
    ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING…THEN TRACK TO THE S OF LONG
    ISLAND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY…PASSING INSIDE THE 40N/70W
    BENCHMARK…AND REACH A POSITION EAST OF CAPE COD BY FRIDAY
    EVENING…AS THE 500 HPA TROUGH AXIS BUILD INTO THE REGION.

    BASED ON THIS HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGHOUT BY LATE THURSDAY
    NIGHT…CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN THROUGHOUT BY AFTERNOON…EXCEPT
    FOR MAYBE FAR NW ZONES BASED ON IDEA OF RETREATING HIGH TO THE NE
    – NOTHING TO KEEP THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR TRAPPED IN…AND FORECAST
    OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND 925 HPA TO THE SURFACE
    ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON…THEN PRECIPITATION
    MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY EVENING

  11. I agreed J.J.

    Not to mention, the Euro has followed the GFS OTS a few times this year. Frankly, if it’s a snow to rain scenario, just as well it doesn’t happen

  12. Thanks, TK.

    That area of snow yesterday left Sudbury w/about 1-1/2 inches of snow. The doppler radar did look weird – the snow coming in from the east and hovering over one area made it look like it was alive! 🙂

    Anyway, this morning, my husband said to me that this winter is like an old-fashioned New England winter. I said No. To me, an old-fashioned New England winter has at least one big snowstorm with lots of snow and wind that leaves big drifts. This could still happen, of course.

    Does anyone know the last time the Boston area had a snowstorm that left big drifts of snow?

  14. Thanks TK

    This morning JR (ch 7) said he did some checking and we have NEVER had back to back winters with less than 15 (I think that was number) inches of snow.

    1. Vicki…I double checked and JR is correct. We did come close once though:

      1979-80 = 12.7″
      1980-81 = 22.3″

    1. Of course there would be precip type issues with this near the coast, but a big snow producer inland! 😀

      Will this finally happen? Is King Euro NO longer King?
      The battle plays out.

    2. But even if it.does snow it only has a qpf of 0.5 soo it wud only be a 6 inch snow storm right? Since the ratios are.low

    3. bring it a little further east but not to much that we do not get anything,. that solution= rain for eastern mass

  17. I thought the EURO track shows a pretty decent snow even to coast OS? Hard to tell from the maps vs. wundermap. Am i missing something?

    1. The colors on the 850MB chart of the Wundermap, suck to say the least.
      Very difficult to pick out the 0C line, but I believe it is the one just to the NW
      of Boston. I could be wrong and perhaps it’s the one just to the SE? but I don’t
      think so. IN any case immaterial right now. Still 4-5 days out. There will be
      changes to the track IF it even develops like this.

      Btw, EVEN if the 850MB temps are OK, there will probably be boundary
      layer issues at the coast. Water temp still in low 40s and no Real super Arctic air in place.

      Just my thoughts.

      Have a great day.

      GO Pats! Oh Wait, they already went. 😀

  18. So in regards to our outing I was able to book a week away in Smuggler’s Notch so I can’t make that date i threw out. Any chance we can look at a different date? How about the 28th of February?

  19. HPC write up

    WITH MUCH OF THE 4/00Z GUIDANCE IN…THERE IS PLENTY OF SUPPORT
    FOR COMPLEX COASTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT AND SECONDARY INTENSIFICATION
    OF A SURFACE WAVE OFF THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE (IN THE OUTER BANKS
    AND BLOCK ISLAND CORRIDOR) ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MANUAL
    GRAPHICS CERTAINLY ARE NOT PERFECT PROGS…BUT I DID DRAW A SFC
    LOW TRACK (AND INTERMEDIATE POSITION)…PASSING OVER THE BENCHMARK
    BEFORE 9/00Z IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1004 MB AND DEEPENING TO 996MB
    EAST OF HALIFAX NS AROUND 9/12Z. THIS INTERMEDIATE PROG (VALID
    9/00Z) IS CLOSER TO THE 4/00Z UKMET FOR DEPTH BUT HONORS THE TRACK
    OF THE 3/12Z ECMWF PACKAGE AND THE 4/00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF. THE
    DEEPEST SFC PRESSURE AT 983 MB AS IT ENTERS THE SW GULF OF MAINE
    AFTER 9/00Z MIGHT BE OVERDONE…BUT THE TRENDS FROM YESTERDAY
    SUPPORT ONE LAST CYCLONE (CLIPPER) BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
    RETREATS AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD

  20. It will be very frustrating that the one time there is finally phasing for the first time this winter, it will end up being a mostly rainstorm…UGH! 🙁

        1. Yes, rain would be welcome for the long term spring since we are well below normal precip wise, but….the landscape certainly won’t be very breathtaking to look at. Also, regardless of whatever happens temps will rise well above normal next week.

  21. NWS Taunton is also starting to wonder about the Euro solution for Friday….

    00Z ECMWF REMAINS ON THE ONLY PIECE OF MODEL GUIDANCE THAT SIMULATES
    PHASING OF STREAMS WITH SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AMPLIFICATION AT OUR
    LONGITUDE. THIS YIELDS CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND FRI WITH
    LOW TRACKING CLOSE TO NANTUCKET/CAPE COD LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT. IF THIS
    TRACK VERIFIES WARMER AIR WOULD INVADE MOST OF THE REGION WITH SNOW
    TO RAIN AND THEN BACK TO SNOW AS LOW PULLS AWAY.

    REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES
    DELAY PHASING/TROUGH AMPLIFICATION EAST OF NEW ENGLAND…RESULTING
    IN LESS QPF AND IMPACT TO THE REGION. AT THIS TIME RANGE ITS PRUDENT
    NOT TO CHASE ONE INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL. HOWEVER THIS IS THE
    4TH MODEL CYCLE OF THE ECMWF SIMULATING A BIG QPF EVENT FOR THE
    AREA. THE ECMWF MAY BE ONTO SOMETHING AS THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION
    SUGGEST A POSSIBLE REGIME CHANGE AS IT ABRUPTLY CHANGES FROM
    POSITIVE TO NEGATIVE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD LEND
    SUPPORT TO A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH THIS
    WEEK.

  22. Anxiously awaiting the suite of 12Z runs to see what we have.

    btw, the experimental FIM model 0Z run has this system, but OTS.

    I just am having a difficult time reconciling the different models.

    Most show a very flat 500MB configuration, while the Euro has it amplified.
    What is it seeing that the other models are missing?

    Strange business, this weather business. 😀

  25. And the GFS holds strong and shows NADA! No phasing at all – weak northern stream disturbance comes through Friday with little fanfare and the southern stream storm is way OTS.

  26. Mark its also so far off from phasing.. Indeed very odd compared to the EURO. I am guessing we will see the EURO cave to the GFS very soon.

  27. Indeed, it’s not even close to phasing. A complete 180 from the Euro solution. Being only 4 days from the event, one of them is going to cave today. I suspect we will see the Euro back off at 12z…

  28. This has been a trend with the EURO all winter. Shows a phased coastal low 5 days out for a few runs that no other guidance has, only to come back to its senses and realize it doesn’t match the current pattern and trends.

    1. It sure has been. But, please note link to Barry’s blog.
      He is BUYING the Euro, at least for now.

      Also, last night, Mike Wankum, displayed the exact path
      from yesterday’s 12Z Euro. He was clearly in the Euro camp.
      Didn’t even waiver. He stated it like it was Gospel. 😀

      I am awaiting the experimental FIM model as well as the Euro.

      Let’s see what we get.

  29. From Joe Lundberg at Accuweather. Warmup next week is temporary/don’t put away the shovels……

    I’m not going to go into the specifics of the late-week storm at this point, preferring to save that for tomorrow’s post. What I will say is that it will be the last system to hold back the warming over upstate New York and New England before they, too, can finally share in the warming.

    I don’t think the warming is a permanent feature, of course, but it will be longer than the spike in warmth the first half of last week. I’m quite certain it will get cold again – maybe not as cold as it has been over the past couple of weeks, especially from the Midwest to the Northeast, but certainly below normal. And I would in no way declare winter over, especially if you think snow when you hear the term winter! Remember, my initial thought from before Phil’s prediction was that there was going to be a hangover effect of that stratospheric warming effect deep into February, if not into March! So, while I’m liking his forecast of an early spring, I’m not at all going to put my snow shovel away!

        1. I’m not gonna shovel an inch or two of snow when it’s gonna disappear the next day or two, wasting my time, I got a long driveway so unless there’s 3+ inches I just let it melt, never had a problem in 14yrs, most of the snow melts within a few days anyway, I’ve taken that time that I would have spent shoveling and spent it inside with my family, have a good day mark and keep shoveling 🙂

          1. We’ve had several storms in northern CT since 2011 that have dropped 3″+. I actually enjoy getting out and shoveling/clearing the snow and even my 5 year old son has grown to like it too! I realize we are probably in the minority there….

          2. Ahhhh then, is it safe to say, in answer to your question as to when “we” have needed shovels, that just you have not needed a shovel………..but “we” have? 😉

  30. BTW, the 12z GFS is showing the HM Valentines Day storm again and also another fantasy storm on 2/19. PERHAPS we may finally get into a more favorable pattern as we approach mid February but we have all seen these things depicted before in this range and then vanish. We shall see.

  31. 12z Canadian has no phase either but shows the northern stream system with a bit more energy than the GFS bringing what looks to be a mix of light rain and snow Friday.

  34. I actually want a big storm I just want it soon, there’s nothing worse than getting a sizable 6+ 3 weeks from now when your ready for spring, will c

  35. Although the 12Z Euro still has the system, it “appears” to track More off shore
    with this run.

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS096.gif

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS120.gif
    Wundermap not complete to the hour needed to confirm, but looking at where it
    is at 96 hours and where it goes at 120, it looks to me like it passes outside of
    the benchmark. Close enough to bring us accumulating snow? Not sure.

    I’d wager another coat job or under 4 inches anyway. 😀

    1. Well looking at it again, I still maintain outside of benchmark, but not by
      much. Waiting for Wundermap with precip to see how much impact.

  38. im gonna bet that this friday storm is going to go out to sea and not give anyone precipitation or its gonna hit new england to close so that all of eastern mass get rain while ski country and (scotts area gets hammered by a snow storm ) sorry scott i want the snow down here 😛

  44. Can’t dismiss the EURO as it’s had it for 5 runs in a row. Can’t be jaded by how winter has been folks.

  45. From what I am reading on other blogs:

    12z Euro is about at the benchmark. It gets down to 970 mb, so this is the strongest run yet, but the precip shield has shifted east somewhat. It outputs only 0.33″ liquid precip for NYC, most of which falls as rain. It dumps greater than 1″ of melted equivalent east of a line from the eastern tip of LI to Worcester. Looks like we would have precip type issues here in SNE but SE NH and Maine would get plastered.

    12z UKMET is now in and supports the Euro with an amplified solution.

    The plot thickens….

  46. The track of the low and 1″ plus precip in eastern MA would suggest big snowstorm but it appears the cold air is in retreat by the time the storm approaches and there is nothing to lock it in.

  47. You have got to be kidding me! I know its still a few days away, but precip type issues?!? With all the cold air we’ve had lately?!? I give up

  49. OS – the UKMET supports the Euro in that it is the only other model showing the amplified/coastal low solution. You are correct though in that it tracks the storm further east than the Euro – slightly east of the benchmark.

    Precip wise, the Euro gives Boston over 1″ precip. If this fell as all snow, it would be a foot or more, but it looks like there are going to be p-type issues (shaping up to be a snow to rain to snow situation) if this verified.

    1. Euro 850mb temps are fine throughout.

      I think that the Euro is trending OTS.

      How did you arrive at 1 inch for Boston. Did you add all of the
      frames for the event? OR are you looking elsewhere?

      Curious. Thanks

      1. The Accuweather forum – people with pro accounts are posting the ECMWF output. Despite the track and 850 mb temps, this is not an all snow event for coastal areas in SNE. NH and Maine do extremely well – downeast Maine gets 2 feet plus with this run.

      2. Do we know what time period those qpfs entail on the Wundermap?

        I may be mistaken, but even though the panels are in
        3 hour increments, I do believe that the precip totals are
        for 6 hour increments, which means you would have to
        Half your total down to about .5 inch for Boston.

        Does anyone know that answer?

        😀

        1. I had always assumed they were the 3 hour precip totals but now you have me wondering. In any event, the 1″+ output did not come from the wunderground maps, it came from people who have pro access to the model which spits out total storm QPF for a particular location.

      3. I don’t see the OTS trend. It can take these models days to reach their equilibrium on their projected track.

  50. From Brett Anderson:

    We will have a much clearer picture by early Wednesday on whether or not there will be some phasing as the energy moves inland across the western U.S. That energy as of now is still out in the eastern Pacific where there is limited data.

    2. Nice updates today Mark & O.S. – thanks.

      Saves me searching time.

      I’ll bite when the GFS picks up the scent for multiple runs.

      I know the king is the king but…..

      1. I’ll believe it when I SEE it at this point.

        I’m sorry, but it each successive run of the Euro is farther
        to the East, representing a trend. And that trend
        is towards an OTS solution. Does it mean it will be so.

        NO. It is simply the current trend, that is all.

        Could it change? Of course.

        As with Retrac, I’d like to see the GFS on board or even
        the CMC at this point.

        NAM is slowly coming into range as well. 😀

    1. If the Euro’s current track is right, there will be a rain/snow line.

      I am still doubting this model. I know I shouldn’t, given its track record. But I am.

      1. 😀 So, I guess you are in the no phasing camp?

        This Winter, every time there needed to be phasing for us
        to get a nice event, It NEVER happened. So why should it
        happen now?

        😀

        1. I’m reluctant. I still see things that may prevent phasing until the systems are beyond the area. It may be very close so we have to keep a really close eye on it.

  52. Model watching is fun if you don’t take it too seriously, but if you do, it’s like trying on pairs of false teeth and none of them fit quite right…

    That said, I’ve been watching the models myself a little bit, with an open mind, and I have to chuckle at the difference between the operational Euro & GFS at 12z.

    The NAM is indeed coming into range, and even though it does have difficulty outside 48 or 60 hours, it is already hinting strongly at no phasing (Camp GFS).

    1. TK, I was noticing that as well. Thank you for confirming that I was
      reading those charts properly. 😀

  53. This like every other storm this winter will go OTS. Euro had played catch up with the GFS several times this winter.

      1. I think the 6-10 is right for temps, and the 8-14 is maybe a little warm. I think the precip may be close or slightly over-done.

    1. It’s funny how flat that looks, because the map is not curved for lat/long. Our old GFS charts used to print off like that with 2 panels per 8 1/2 by 11 page and it was something to get used to.

  56. And we wait and we wait and wait and wait and wait, lots of 40’s this weekend, cold air is relaxing back into Canada

      1. That’s what I say, not a fan of cold it’s sorta useless if it doesn’t snow, I can still see the sun and it’s almost 5:00 were getting there

  57. 4:56PM and the sun sits between a deck of fractocumulus clouds and the horizon, but still fully above the horizon. Heading into the post-5PM sunsets now. But it’s still winter!

    New blog posted!

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