The Week Ahead

146 Comments

8:43PM

This week, which is Passover and Holy Week for those celebrating either, will see a continuation of the cool pattern that has characterized much of the month of March. For southern New England, it starts out with a sideswiping by the northern edge of a large storm exiting the US East Coast. This storm brought severe weather to parts of the Southeast and ice/snow to parts of the Mid Atlantic, but will only graze far southern New England with a little bit of mix/snow later Monday before heading out to sea. The balance of the week will be dominated by low pressure to the east and high pressure to the west with just a few disturbances rotating through with periods of clouds and minimal precipitation threats.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 30-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Late day light mix South Coast of MA & RI. Highs 40-45. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Light mix to snow pushing northward to around the Mass Pike and southward with just a few flakes of snow possible to the north of there. Little snow accumulation most areas but 1-2 inches possible over southern RI through Cape Cod MA. Lows around 30. Wind NE 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Sun & passing clouds. Highs 42-47. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-35. Wind NW 10-15 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of passing rain or snow showers. Low 31. High 42.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 32. High 46.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 33. High 47.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 34. High 48.

146 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

    1. Hi Vicki!!! I saw your comment on the other blog post! Thank you so much for what you said! And please thank your husband too! It means a whole lot! I really, really appreciate it.

      1. Any thoughts on the date of the last frost for Logan? I think the average date is around April 8-10. Do you think we could be done with frost by then? It seems so soon…

        *Anxious to start the gardening season*

    1. I was upon Mount Zion Friday night for a short while and Saturday night again for a bit longer.

      I’ll be kitty-sitting there for an hour or so every evening for a week starting on Wednesday as my friend is going away for several days. I’m the one checking on her 2 kitties and giving them food & water and all of that stuff. 🙂

    1. Thanks Sue. Was thinking of you…..you have a branch right next to our hotel. My youngest is heading to Plymouth next weekend for a pre-baby getaway with her husband and son.

      1. Yes we do have a branch right next to your hotel. I was just reading the job posting we have for a parking lot attendant for that branch for the summer. I wonder if they would let me do it and then return to my regular job in September. 🙂

      2. Also, I did notice that some of the stores on Water Street have opened, along with Lobster Hut. I am sure your daughter will have a wonderful time.

          1. I txtd her and she said thank you. Also she wondered if you know about the ice cream place you and tom like is open. Priorities 😉

            1. Peaceful Meadows is in Village Landing and it is open. Also, Cupcake Charlies is in front of the Cabby Shack and the cupcakes are DELISH!

  5. Thanks TK.
    15 seed Florida Gulf Coast just made history being first 15 seed ever to advance to sweet sixteen. My final four teams are still alive. How is everyone’s brackets looking at this point???

    1. I saw that and my brackets are hurting, but all my final four teams are still alive. 😉

    4. Had Memphis in mine :(. What a game Florida Gulf Coast tonight. Now they face Florida in the sweet sixteen.

  7. Just a reminder to get you votes in for the first 70 degree day (recorded at Logan I guess?) I’ll post an updated list of the votes tomorrow morning. Deadline for voting is Tuesday morning @ 9:00 am.

  8. A sign of spring today in Providence: bees and lots of them loitering among the hardy flowers that have sprung up. Given that it’s been milder in Providence than Boston it doesn’t surprise me that bees would appear sooner there than here. One thing that is generally the case is that once bees do appear it means a hard frost is unlikely. Bees instinctively `know’ when to come out. They wouldn’t do so on a mild 60 degree day in February as the threat of hard frost looms. Now that threat is pretty much gone.

  10. While I think we’ll hit 70 on May 4th I also think 70 degree days will be few and far between until we soar into the 80s and 90s in early to mid June. Towns like Chatham (often notoriously cool in June) may not see 80s (or 90s) until late June as the water is cold and will remain so for the foreseeable future.

  11. Tk curious question and you don’t have to tell me if you don’t want but how many bloggers are on this site? Thank you

    1. I don’t know the exact #, but there is a staggering number of lurkers, and it has increase majorly since the blizzard.

  15. Keith, I’ll go with my birthday 4/19 as the first 70 degree day at Logan.

    Prior to then, I feel we continue with generally below normal temps for the next 2-3 weeks and I still have a strong hunch there will be one more accumulating snowfall in at least interior portions of SNE before we can officially declare this winter over. I see a couple of threat periods in early April in the long range models.

    I am sitting at 95″ on the year now in Coventry, CT. Would be pretty nuts if we got one more storm to push us over 100″.

  16. I’m not sure snow makes it much further north than the south coast of ct ri or cape cod canal, I said 1-2 inches earlier, now I’m thinking closer an inch on coastal ct ri and cape cod, I still believe this up coming week doesn’t look half bad with temps ranging between 45-50 degrees depending on where you are in eastern mass, looks dry, good night 😉

  18. Good Morning Everyone. Here are predictions for the first 70 degree day as of 6:15 this morning. Please let me know if I missed anyone.

    DS = May 12
    John = April 15
    Keith = April 18
    Vicki = April 18
    Charlie = April 25
    Tom = April 14
    Amy = April 17
    Joshua = May 4
    North = April 21
    Captain = April 23
    Hadi = April 29
    Shreedhar = April 28
    Kane = April 17
    Jimmy James = April 20
    Mark = April 19

    6. My guess is, wait a minute, I need to look at a calendar and view my crystal ball.
      Sunday, June 2nd. 😀

      Yes, I see a MISERABLE Spring in New England. I sure hope I am dead wrong!!!

      Again, this is as measured at Logan. Sure to hit 70 at inland locations long
      before that date.

  19. Its interesting ……. there can always be snow within an overall warm pattern, I wonder if a warm day will sneak in prior to what we all have predicted in an overall cold pattern.

    The reason I say this is because, on the long range EURO, there appears to be another parcel of very cold air building in Canada in the long range (days 7 thru 10, as I recall). Before that cold air returns, it appears there’s a hint of a low traveling NW of our region, with a chance at a day or two of SW flow.

    All it would take is one day, maybe 2 of a land breeze from the W or SW and watch the temps across the region soar. The cold has masked the sun’s climb.

    So, while I am penciled in for April 14th, it wouldnt surprise me if we come close in the April 1-5 timeframe before it chills off significantly again.

  21. Good morning all. I don’t know If I am alone in this, but I’m feeling a bit down today
    as this OTS storm “may” have been the last shot at any decent snow for the season.
    Sure I know it “could” still happen, but this may have just been it. I love the snow storms, tracking the storms and just being on the lookout for potential storms.

    Now with that gone, the weather just isn’t as exciting for me, save for an occasional
    T-storm say or later, a possible tropical event.

    Now I have to watch the water levels in the rivers so I know when I have the possibility of catching fish. High water = No Fish. Never been able to figure out
    exactly why, but it is generally so.

    Have a great day all.

    1. You’ve kept us informed (well-informed) throughout this interesting winter season. We may still see some snow chances, but even if nothing materializes it’s been a fun ride, and you, OS, have made it a fun ride for all of us.

      1. Joshua,
        Thank you for the kind words. It has been a fun season and ALL contributed. I’m not going anywhere, it just won’t be as interesting
        and the blog won’t be as active, that is all. 😀

    2. I, for one, am thrilled it’s OTS. I saw we let it all melt and move on…another winter will be here before you know it!

    4. Whew I was worried for a bit you were leaving us for summer. As I said the other day its always sad for me to say goodbye to winter (any season really except maybe summer and even then I’m a bit sad). But it doesn’t take long for me to get excited about the next step in what New England has to offer

      1. My sentiments echo yours, Vicki – although I know today is March 25, and I do love spring, it aches to say goodbye to winter, as it’s my favorite season. I love the cold weather, the beauty of snow, how fresh and clean the air smells and feels. That said, spring brings renewal, its own blend of smells, and how the air feels, not to mention all the flowers – in the ground, in the trees, I love it! For me and many others on here, summer’s only good for one thing: thunderstorms! Once October comes, I’m ready for the first snow!!!

  22. Here is one for those who think/thought that it can’t snow at temperatures above
    freezing. Look at this observation from: Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ

    (KNEL) 40.04N 74.32W
    36.0 °F
    Last Updated: Mar 25 2013, 9:00 am EDT
    Mon, 25 Mar 2013 09:00:00 -0400
    Weather: Heavy Snow
    Temperature: 36.0 °F (2.2 °C)
    Dewpoint: 32.0 °F (0.0 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 86 %
    Wind: Northeast at 5.8 MPH (5 KT)
    Wind Chill: 31 F (-1 C)
    MSL Pressure: 1000.5 mb
    Altimeter: 29.55 in Hg

      1. Just to clarify. I do think it can snow when the temperature is above freezing, but I think it will have a hard time accumulating. Probably little or no accumulation to speak of on road surfaces. I’d be curious to know the final accumulation tally at Lakehurst when all is said and done. My guess is a couple of inches on grassy surfaces of fast-melting snow.

  24. OS, I’m with you. Very depressing time of year with the snow melting and a more boring weather pattern setting in. I do like the summer and tracking storms but spring is my least favorite time of year. Mud , pollen, allergies….not good.

    Can’t complain though – it was a great winter. From a half foot of snow in the early November noreaster, to 16″ during the Christmas/New Years week and two monster storms in February and March, we are pushing 100″ for the season in my town and it will be one to remember.

    That being said, as I stated in my post last night, I do not think we are done with accumulating snow in SNE. I think we have one more fairly widespread accumulating snow event at some point in the first half of April. There is still plenty of cold air around. The Euro has no sustained warm ups in the long range and has quite a sharp temperature gradient setting up across the middle of the country, ripe for storm development. GFS long range shows some opportunities with storms passing near or south of us. Don’t let your guard down yet. We will see some snow in April this year.

  26. The Wiz already knows the answer to the 70 degree day courtesy of his Time Machine…April 26th…

  27. I find it interesting that when DC got shut out of snow, we in SNE got it and got it good and today and tonight, the complete reverse. At least we all knew well in advace that we would likely miss this. In DC I believe all schools and government offices had shut down in advance on a storm that never materialized. I would assume they are all closed for today this time around. DC just might get to near normal snowfall with the snow expected (a foot?). We will see.

    1. Philip, DC’s only looking at an inch or two from this storm. They are pretty much getting shut out again and have not had a good winter at all

  28. With the NAO continuing in the negative and PNA trending positive, I would think that one more final snow event should be in the offering for SNE by mid-April. It will also be interesting if those mid-50’s for Easter Sunday verify in the end. We will see about that and even if it does, I believe a cold front will be approaching shortly thereafter. The latest CPC continues to show cold most everywhere.

    1. I totally agree Philip. We are in a fairly anomalous late Winter pattern here and if there is ever a time it would snow in April in SNE, it would be during a pattern like this. There is still plenty of cold enough air left around and there are going to be storm opportunities. Also don’t buy the argument that even if it snows, it won’t accumulate. Sun angle is irrelevant when it snows at night and it is dark nearly half the time 🙂

      I am surprised to hear people like OS and Arod throwing in the towel already!

      1. I am not giving up. Growing up, I played baseball in April with snow flying or on the ground. It was not annually, but it happened about the same as playing soccer with snow in October, once every 3 to 5 years you get something it seems.

    1. Agree on your date as well. I rarely have good weather on my birthday and think I am overdue this year!

  30. I’m with you Old Salty, absolutely love winter weather. This season was back-end loaded, but a lot of fun. Hopefully we catch one more storm before we close the books on 2012-2013.

  32. Updated predictions for the first 70 degree day as of 6:15 this morning. Please let me know if I missed anyone.

    DS = May 12
    John = April 15
    Keith = April 18
    Vicki = April 18
    Charlie = April 25
    Tom = April 14
    Amy = April 17
    Joshua = May 4
    North = April 21
    Captain = April 23
    Hadi = April 29
    Shreedhar = April 28
    Kane = April 17
    Jimmy James = April 20
    Mark = April 19
    Retrac = April 24
    Shotime = April 22
    Matt = April 25
    Old Salty = June 2
    Scott77 = April 30
    Sue = May 1
    Weather Wiz = April 26
    Phillip = April 19

  33. Just took a walk for lunch…in Lexigton…a few snowflakes and then some light rain…real light.

  34. Just came in from Lunch. Loads of BLUE sky above the low deck moving in
    from the ocean. Bright sunshine in between the lower clouds.
    45 Degrees. Aside from it being a bit breezing, it is actually a beautiful day
    out there.

    Very sharp cut off in the precipitation from this system.

    Not looking like it will get much father North than it already is:

    1PM Obs had snow to Kennedy in NYC, but NOT to Laguardia or Central Park. 😀

  36. Easter Weekend doesn’t look to bad, still 6 days away but early indications are it could be 50-55 both Sat and Sun, looks like rain chances are also low for Easter Weekend

  38. A fascinating deck of low clouds over the ocean to the north. Dark overcast with lighter clouds and blue sky along horizon to our south. Some very light rain and quite windy. Great to watch

  39. Tom took a ride along Jerusalem Rd. Your reaction runs somewhere between wow and ostentatious. Can’t claim new money for those. Do you know if they date back to pre depression era or are they newer? Headed to cask and flagon for lunch and it was good but not as good so is inconsistent. Humarock is a mess still. I laughed because as we drove by marshfield middle and high schools mac even said “Hi Tom!”

    Its been a lovely day down this way even with the few raindrops now

    1. I thought I heard someone calling my name. 🙂 I’m not sure when those homes were built, but they are amazing. Glad you got to take that drive !!

  41. Graupel shower in Stoneham about 2:20PM. 🙂

    I will have my first 70-degree day guess by 5PM. I have to consult with some wizards and a crystal ball. 🙂

  42. An initial arctic sea ice maximum has been declared. I believe it was said to have occurred on March 15th, running about 5 days later than the average of March 10th.

    Sixth lowest maximum since satellite records began, but keep in mind I think that it began only in 1979. They will reassess in early April to make sure a newer max didnt occur later in March.

    2. Satellite records indeed began in the late 1970s which is why so many years fall in the ten lowest maximum category. It’s used as a deceptive tool by the news quite often to hype up the melting of ice.

      1. The ice has receded in my freezer since last weekend too, but I made a few drinks in the interim. This is not a convientent lie (nor a planetary emergency… unless all the ice is gone).

  46. Today is a fascinating storm for me, just think its pretty much at the benchmark and we get nothing. Whereas earlier storm was 500 miles east of us and we ended up with 18-24 inches. This is craziness about weather that I love and keep coming back for more.

    1. Squashed storm.
      Contrast that to the March 8 let’s-throw-a-foot-plus-at-SNE-from-500-miles-away storm. 😛

    1. My husband made the comment earlier that if businesses got rid of CEOs and let employees run the “ship” it would run a whole lot smoother. I think this may be a case in point !!

        1. I listened to JR today and he uses the word seasonable. Makes more sense to me and I thought of you TK. Basically anything we have is seasonable but there is no normal

          1. You’re right. Weather is the atmosphere’s way of trying to become perfectly uniform, thwarted continuously by differential heating from the sun. It does what it does based on the pattern, which is complex and driven by many things, all rooting back to the sun interacting with land, the things on it, and water.

            Many media will have you believe weather is following some set of rigid rules, when in fact weather is only bounded by the laws of physics.

            1. I pay attention to common sense …never media. So Maybe yes and maybe no…..sadly by the time we finish debating the issue……it’ll be too late

  50. The person that’s furthest from the 70 degree date buys a beverage of any kind to the winner at the next woodshill meeting, thoughts?

  51. Wind in mid to high teens with gusts into mid to high 20s. Ocean active not huge but is up to wall across from us at a normal high tide so might be interesting. If I can stay awake 🙂

  52. Hi all. Almost didn’t get the time to put in my 70degree guess. Although my wife insisted it will be July 19th, I was able to ignore her long enough to post April 10th, which coincidently is also my bday. TK, I will contact you soon re the show. We hope to have the studio moved in the next 3 weeks.

  54. Well I haven’t been here lately because the B’s are driving me crazy. Tonight they were down 2-0 against the Leafs and they just tied it up 2-2. If this keeps up, I’ll never make it to my next b’day!

  56. High tide still an hour away and waves breaking in sea wall across from our room. Not expecting more than splashing but very fun to watch. Temp up a degree to 39.9

    1. Vicki, I saw your post earlier. I have fond memories of Paragon Park in the early 80’s before they tore it down. Also of Jerusulem Road too. I swam at both Blackrock (closest to Hull) and Sandy Beach (other end of Jerusulem) as a kid and remember playing in some pretty crazy waves as a kid from Hurricanes that were out at sea in the Atlantic.

  60. Interesting write up from the NWS, track is not always key 🙂

    940 PM UPDATE…

    SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE
    BENCHMARK THIS EVENING. IRONICALLY…THIS STORM IS ACTUALLY A BIT
    FURTHER NORTH THAN 7-8 MARCH 2013 STORM THAT BROUGHT OVER 20 INCHES
    OF SNOW TO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MA. IN THIS CASE THOUGH…WE
    CERTAINLY DON/T HAVE THE STRONG/DEEP/MOIST EAST FETCH OFF THE OCEAN.
    ALSO…THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FLATTENED
    WHICH IS A GOOD INDICATION OF DRY AIR EATING AWAY AT THE NORTHERN
    FRINGE OF THE STORM. MODEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS AROUND 700 MB
    ARE QUITE DRY…SO ITS NOT ALWAYS ABOUT THE TRACK OF THE STORM THAT
    DETERMINES THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WE RECEIVE.

  61. Well as I think it may stay cool going into April I think winter snow wise is on vacation for the next 8 months IMO, anyways looks quiet this week and seasonably cool, goodnight 🙂

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