Still A Chill

96 Comments

2:32AM

The air will feel milder at times this week even though temperatures will still be running generally below normal. Some episodes of late March sunshine will make it feel less cool. There will also be one more throwback area of clouds and a few rain/snow showers later Wednesday through Thursday from a large storm circulation offshore to the east. This finally drifts away to the east and high pressure ridging nudges eastward later in the week.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Variably cloudy. Few snow showers especially southeastern MA. Lows 30-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs in the 40s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows around 30. Wind NNW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Highs in the 40s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain/snow showers. Low 30. High 44.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 48.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 31. High 49.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 33. High 52.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 38. High 49.

96 thoughts on “Still A Chill”

  2. Thanks TK !

    50 degree sun angle today in Boston, September 16th equivalent.

    Another negative NAO day, another above normal temperature day in east central Canada. To watch the visible satellite pics during midday of the openings in the ice on the eastern third of Hudson Bay is eye opening. I’ll try to post a picture later in the day. Weeks and weeks ahead of normal.

  3. Thanks TK

    Last Call for entries into the First 70 Degree Day (at Logan) contest. Please have your votes in by 9am today. As of 7am here are entries! If I missed anyone please let me know.

    DS = May 12
    John = April 15
    Keith = April 18
    Vicki = April 18
    Charlie = April 25
    Tom = April 14
    Amy = April 17
    Joshua = May 4
    North = April 21
    Captain = April 23
    Hadi = April 29
    Shreedhar = April 28
    Kane = April 17
    Jimmy James = April 20
    Mark = April 19
    Retrac = April 24
    Shotime = April 22
    Matt = April 25
    Old Salty = June 2
    Scott77 = April 30
    Sue = May 1
    Weather Wiz = April 26
    Phillip = April 19
    Rainshine = May 15
    TK = April 27

  4. Actually I did miss someone…Weatherbee2

    DS = May 12
    John = April 15
    Keith = April 18
    Vicki = April 18
    Charlie = April 25
    Tom = April 14
    Amy = April 17
    Joshua = May 4
    North = April 21
    Captain = April 23
    Hadi = April 29
    Shreedhar = April 28
    Kane = April 17
    Jimmy James = April 20
    Mark = April 19
    Retrac = April 24
    Shotime = April 22
    Matt = April 25
    Old Salty = June 2
    Scott77 = April 30
    Sue = May 1
    Weather Wiz = April 26
    Phillip = April 19
    Rainshine = May 15
    TK = April 27
    Weatherbee2 = April 10

  6. Tidbit on tornados.

    Tornado debris can be carried a couple of hundred miles from its original location which I did know, but what I did not know is that most debris from tornados is thrown 10 degress to the left and 5 degrees to the right from the tornado “center.” I am not exactly sure why this is true though.

    The trivia geek, Longshot

    2. Do you mean a 15° zone at the top of the tornado ‘sphere’? I could ask Tim Marshall about it. There is ‘RFD’, or Rear Flank Downdraft, involved; that might wrap around and throw debris back to the north position. I’ve seen debris thrown all over everywhere.

  10. From Joe Lundberg’s blog yesterday, cautioning that winter is not over:

    “There’s still a problem downstream in the Atlantic with this thing called ‘blocking,’ a feature that won’t allow all of that warm air to come all the way to the East Coast. Oh, it will turn warmer this weekend to be sure, but the warmth will, unfortunately, be fleeting. A cold front should drive across the northern Plains and Midwest Sunday and sweep off the Northeast coast Monday night, bringing still another very cold air mass for so late in the season across the playing field. Now, it is unlikely to get anywhere near as far south and west as this current air mass, and it may not last as long, either. That said, it will be colder than normal for a few days from the northern Plains to the mid-Atlantic and New England. And where it’s cold and any storm attacks from the west and southwest, snow still has to be a part of the equation.”

    1. Both the GFS and Euro do indeed show it getting very cold again here towards the middle of next week after the cold front moves through. Then, both show storm development over the southeast US in the April 3-5 timeframe. 0z GFS looks cold enough but sends the storm out to sea while the Euro is further north but too warm. IMO, this time frame is a period to watch for east coast storm development and our last chance at accumulating snowfall. The AO and NAO look to slowly start trending neutral after that and more seasonable April weather should take over as we head into the middle of the month.

    1. I don’t think that’s happening sue. My opinion acumlitating snow is all but done. Within the next fee weeks look for things to change bigtime in both tempature and landscape.

        1. I doubt that very much, but I could be wrong. Highly elevated areas North maybe even Maine but not around here.

      1. Won’t OS be here for the spring/summer? I seem to recall him here in summers past. Maybe I missed something?

  14. Ok Everyone here are the final votes for the first 70 degree day. I’ll post this again later this evening in date order.

    Now for prizes:

    3rd place = A day spent with Hadi out in a boat with a fanb near the benchmark trying to bring that latest storm closer to us!
    2nd place = A day with Old Salty to help him clear his internet browsers cache that’s full of model data!
    1st place = A day with Charlie…..that’s speaks for itself 🙂

    DS = May 12
    John = April 15
    Keith = April 18
    Vicki = April 18
    Charlie = April 25
    Tom = April 14
    Amy = April 17
    Joshua = May 4
    North = April 21
    Captain = April 23
    Hadi = April 29
    Shreedhar = April 28
    Kane = April 17
    Jimmy James = April 20
    Mark = April 19
    Retrac = April 24
    Shotime = April 22
    Matt = April 25
    Old Salty = June 2
    Scott77 = April 30
    Sue = May 1
    Weather Wiz = April 26
    Phillip = April 19
    Rainshine = May 15
    TK = April 27
    Weatherbee2 = April 10
    Longshot = April 26
    JRW = May 7

  15. This might be a little weather-related…two days ago I woke up out of the blue with terribly chapped lips…like painful to yawn. My kids are also getting dry skin on their hands…assuming this is the inside air? Any correlation to outdoor air?

    1. My skin got very dry about a month ago. Much better now but I bet the dry air has something to do with it.

  16. I was on I-95 South between Kingstown, RI/Hopkinton, RI about 30 minutes ago, hit a wall of moderate snow for a few minutes @ 43°.

  17. While it’s certainly not going to become balmy around here by any stretch, accumulating snow is very likely OVER until next Winter. The sun angle continues to rise and warm. The cold airmass will ease and spring will slowly but finally make its arrival. It’s been a very fun winter, especially the second half, but the snow is finally over. Enjoy everyone! 😀

  19. Today is your typical new england spring day; raw, cloudy, and breezy. We are entering my least favorite stretch of weather. I’d rather it snow.

  20. Well if the snow is over I can’t wait to start tracking thunderstorms.
    One of my bold weather predictions for 2013 was for 2-3 big thunderstorm days so will see what happens.
    Tom’s bold prediction of a 20 inch plus snowstorm for Boston happened. I feel bad I did not save those and post it at the end of the year to see how many of them actually happened.

  21. Folks, I am telling you – the snow threat is still there through the first week (possibly two weeks) of April until this blocking pattern eases and temperatures return to seasonable levels.

    Very potent cold front moves through here on Monday with another cold blast in the days that follow it. 12z GFS has it snowing here a week from today as the cold front stalls out and a wave of low pressure rides up along it and to our south.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12&image=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_168_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    Not out of the woods yet by any means.

  22. Keith-Hingham: Brilliant prizes. Love the idea of heading out to the benchmark (actually; we WHW folks should all rent a boat and do that sometime, place a buoy w/ WHW engraved on it to mark the spot). Could not stop laughing in my office about the 2nd prize. The other day when OS mentioned that his wife thinks he’s “insane” with all those models, I had another laughing fit.

    “Dinner time,” says the wife, to which Old Salty replies, “no, it’s NAM time, honey.”
    “Who’s NAM?”
    “Well, darling, that’s a long story.”
    “You mean, NAM’s another one of those models. Is she Japanese, Canadian, British, European, or just plain experimental?”
    “Well, she’s jacked, that’s for sure.”

      1. But she does KNOW that they are Weather Computer Models.
        She has come in and seen the maps many times. 😀

    2. That’s amazing…and right now somewhat depressing LOL. It will be interesting to see how fast and far that snow retreats over the next 4-6 weeks.

  26. 3 rd place prize above has to be the best prize, a cruise into the Atlantic with yours truly. Could you ask for a better time 🙂

  29. Pete is already sticking a fork in winter. The title of his evening blog is “Sticking A Fork In”…

    Well, the CPC not to mention the continuing -NAO blocking pattern says differently.

    TK, what are your thoughts for after this Easter Weekend?…still vulnerable for snow events?

    1. I just got done reading his post and I absolutely agree. Sure still a chill in the air on some days but thats Normal for now. I think the snow storms hold of till next fall or winter. I also know it can snow. I’m sure most are ready for warmer days, I know I am.

    2. Not this weekend. Timing not the same. Beyond? Yes. Snow threats still possible until AT LEAST April 15. This is the type of pattern that supports LATE snowfalls.

      I’ve seen it several times in my career. Unmistakeable.

    1. Good !

      I saw that too the other day and my thought was 50 percent ???? More like .5 of 1 percent. 🙂

  31. Havana, Cuba : 66F, Fort Myers, FL : 57F, Atlanta, GA : 40F.

    Its obvious a vast majority of the US is well, well below normal for late March.

    This courtesy of a recent extremely negative arctic oscillation and a solidly negative NAO. The interesting part is that while all the cold has been pushed far south into the US, it literally emptied itself out of Canada, filled in by “milder North Atlantic Ocean maritime air.”

    http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/satellite/hrpt_nque_vis_100.jpg

    Check out the eastern third of Hudson Bay early this afternoon. Amazing, late March and open areas of water showing up. Based on looking up avg ice melt in Hudson Bay, this should be starting in late April to early May. Simply put, the continual easterly surface winds, temps consistently in the mid 20s to mid 30s and continuous bright, sunny days under the blocking high to our north have resulted in this early season melt.

    I am relieved to see a brief change arriving in a few days, with an arctic plunge over the Hudson Bay area. I believe this may help to refreeze these areas.

    It would be nice to see things a bit more normal with cold air in Canada, moderation in the US and storms tracking a bit closer to the US Canadian border along that developing contrast. If not and things continue upside down, its going to be interesting to follow the various anomalies.

  32. I’ll be glad when that percentage is higher. Heading to Florida the end of april and I’m hoping for some nice warm weather.

    1. Enjoy, since we really aren’t heat people we limit Florida to either Dec,Jan or Feb only, we went there 1 time in June and holy crap talk about heat and humidity, when we were there it was 94 degrees with a dewpoint of 74 and we stayed inside most of the time, and to think its like that there for half the year sends shivers up my spine, anyways have fun 🙂

  34. we all go up to maine….. we then go to the beach …… the winners carry the looser and through them in the freezing maine water this spring.. then the looser buys us all drinks (soda,water)

  36. For anyone interested in a statement from RGIII

    “My knee is getting better every day. The doctors say I’m ahead of schedule. My goal is to return healthy in week one but if I’m not ready then I will wait until I am, however long that is. My first NFL season and my injury that ended it showed me a lot about the league, my team and myself. I know where my responsibility is within the dilemma that led to me having surgery to repair my knee and all parties involved know their responsibilities as well. I’m looking forward to playing the game we all love so much again and not behind at the negative. Thanks for the overwhelming level of support that I’ve received, sic ‘em bears and hail to the redskins!!”

    1. Hadi,

      Great to hear. I hope he comes back completely so you can enjoy watching him
      play for your team. I just hope he doesn’t do as well as Brady should they ever meet. 😀

  38. Love the grand prizes. Love the fun and OS please visit as often and arod Tstorms can be as fun as snow……and I for one …..or many…..will miss you so please stay and play

    1. Vicki,

      I don’t understand why anyone would think I was going anywhere. You know
      I have been here for T-storms. :D`I just may not visit as often as I did
      while tracking and searching for snow storms. 😀

      It was Arod who said see ya next Winter. 😀

      1. I wasn’t clear. I KNEW you were not leaving but thought you said you might not be here as often. Even that makes me sad 🙂

  39. As for the declaration of sticking a fork in winter?

    Winter may be astronomically over, but those who ignore history are likely to be surprised…

    2. I’ve been trying to make that point all day but am not getting any takers. Perhaps they will listen to you 😉

        1. Oh I know there are a few out there who agree with us Vicki, they are just not very vocal right now. Just surprised to hear folks like OS and arod throwing in the towel given the pattern we are in and what appears to be an interesting potential setting up for next week. We’ll see what happens but I’m not putting the shovels and snowblower away just yet…

      2. It should not be forgotten.

        If my message about Boston’s high temp over 60 the day before the April Fools Blizzard didn’t get to anybody then nothing will. 🙂

        There is a scientific reason that I’m not calling the threat over through mid April…

        Does it mean we’re guaranteed measurable snow again? Of course not. But I would not bet against it.

        1. You mean the science of global warming……sorry couldn’t stop myself. I tried. But even a short vacation does that to me. Now I need to get some sleep. 😀

  40. Ok…here is the final list again in date order!!

    Weatherbee2 = April 10
    Tom = April 14
    John = April 15
    Amy = April 17
    Kane = April 17
    Keith = April 18
    Vicki = April 18
    Mark = April 19
    Phillip = April 19
    Jimmy James = April 20
    North = April 21
    Shotime = April 22
    Captain = April 23
    Retrac = April 24
    Charlie = April 25
    Matt = April 25
    Weather Wiz = April 26
    Longshot = April 26
    TK= April 27
    Shreedhar = April 28
    Hadi = April 29
    Scott77 = April 30
    Sue = May 1
    Joshua = May 4
    JRW = May 7
    DS = May 12
    Rainshine = May 15
    Old Salty = June 2

    1. That is one long list, Keith – thanks for keeping track of all of that. My day is fluid as you know – depends on when grandson is born:)

      Non weather related, we went to Wahlburger’s and LOVED it. Neither of us realized that the three brothers own (and one is executive chef) at Alma Nove. Nice to see what is happening with the shipyard. I’m also on a mission to get a gas firepit for our yard. I love the ones I see at so many restaurants now.

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