The Week Ahead

90 Comments

5:56PM

Weather changes the past several days brought some showers of rain, and even a few snowflakes. But what did not happen was any really beneficial precipitation. Nor will any take place this coming week, despite some additional weather changes. The weather pattern is just dry. It’s also mild overall, though the work week will start and end with a visit from cold air masses. And the weekend will probably feature an air mass change. The story will be written by a strong high pressure area to the north Monday, supplying cold and clear air, low pressure passing north of the region Thursday dragging a cold front across, with a moderating trend ahead of this front and a short but sharp cool-down behind it, and a very weak weather system that should pass north of the region sometime over the weekend.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows range from just below 20 inland valleys to just above 30 urban centers and immediate coast. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 40-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-25 inland valleys to 30-35 coast. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-53. Wind E-SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 39. High 60.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. PM showers. Low 50. High 67.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 35. High 49.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 52.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 36. High 48.

90 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

    3. The next 2 games after the bye are @ Carolina (perhaps that looked like an “easy” game in August, but no longer so) and home vs. Denver.

      7-2, I just find that an amazing record at this point given everything so far.

      1. Agree, Tom. Credit has to be given where credit is due and between rookies and injuries they deserve tons of credit.

    1. Just referring to what will probably be a cold frontal passage Saturday night or early Sunday so a milder trend Saturday & chilling off Sunday. At days 6 and 7 though, the timing is far from certain.

    1. If we end up with sunshine through midday we can easily crack 70. Played it a bit conservative. It’s always been a bit far out to be confident even today.

  11. Agree Tom the Patriots at 7-2 is remarkable considering the injuries. Chilly night here, temp is 36.4 degrees, what a great night, go to work tommorrow, goodnight šŸ™‚

  13. Thanks TK.
    A temperature roller coaster over the next seven days. One thing looks certain no accumulating snow the first week of November this year as was the case last year.

  14. Well we have no heat in the back of the house but not by choice. I’d turned it off again after the one time I used it and when I went to turn it on at 4:00 this morning, the thermostat was broken. It had to have been in the low 50s in our room šŸ™‚

    Outside it is 28.8 and got down to 27. Dew Point is 16. Very nice!!!!

  16. Old Salty I saw your links over on the previous blog. I found this wording interesting out of the NWS out of Upton using the word precipitation instead of rain or showers. Its the time of year when precipitation is mentioned you have to look at the entire column of the atmosphere and see if there is any chance for wintry precipitation.
    …THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
    FOR A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BRING LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO THE AREA
    SAT NIGHT/SUN…BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.

    2. Canadian 850MB temps for Saturday night and Sunday AM:

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=TT850&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=TT850&hh2=156&fixhh=1&hh=144

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=TT850&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=TT850&hh2=144&fixhh=1&hh=156

      I guess they are factoring in the Euro?

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ecmwf&stn=TT850&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=TT850&hh2=168&fixhh=1&hh=144

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ecmwf&stn=TT850&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=TT850&hh2=144&fixhh=1&hh=168

      Well, we shall just watch and see what develops. šŸ˜€

  17. Looks like I was out of synch. Not surprising for me.

    I’m not looking at any snow in the next week, at least not in the coastal plain. šŸ˜€

  18. I dont know if it is of any significance, but so far, when we get into cold or colder shots of air, it has been fair sunny clear weather. Every time any hint of precip or unsettled weather comes our way, the temps moderate significantly. Hopefully this isnt a sign of things to come this winter.

    1. AceMaster I hope that is not a sign for the winter but so far the pattern the last couple weeks is brief cold shots followed
      by inside runners. If that is the case when winter starts the UGH meter is going to be on the high side.

      1. JJ please look below. Is this a sign? Perhaps it is just a sign
        that the Canadian is going to give us FITS this Winter. šŸ˜€

  20. OH BOY, WHAT do we have HERE???????????????????

    12Z Canadian For Wednesday AM, 11/13:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=PNMPR&hh=216&map=na&stn2=TT850&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=216&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    And 850MB:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=TT850&hh=216&map=na&stn2=PNMPR&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=216&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    Iā€™m sure this will go poof between now and then, but here we are in season already!!!

  21. Old Salty I remember that Canadian model was the only one to pick up on a tropical system offshore on the east coast during the summer. The eventual path that system took place was offshore and that particular model was not far off.
    Will see what happens but its the time of year if you love snow you start looking out in the future to any potential threats.

    1. Yes, it tracked several Tropical systems that DID, indeed, materialize.
      Initial track may have been off some, but the model had the system.

      Don’t know how it will translate this Winter.

      Remember, that the Canadian had a MAJOR enhancement last
      Winter sometime. Well, at least it was billed as a major enhancement.
      Time will tell.

      Let’ see IF it’s still there with the 0z run tonight. Most likely it will be gone
      or at least altered in a significant way. šŸ˜€

      Latest Euro has a BIG TIME LAKES CUTTER! šŸ˜€ šŸ˜€

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ecmwf&run=12&stn=PNM&hh=216&map=na&stn2=TT850&run2=12&mod2=ecmwf&hh2=216&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

      1. The Euro’s scenario is probably the more likely one.

        But a few models hinting at stuff to the south is JUST enough to make me leave that option as a very slight possibility.

        1. Always the case, isn’t it. Nothing is ever clear. šŸ˜€ šŸ˜€

          BUT, I sure would lean towards the cutter. It’s November 4th and we’re talking about this kind of scenario already.

          I love it.

      2. Its early and a lot could change but the way the pattern has been of late I would favor an inside runner that the latest
        run of the EURO is depicting.

  22. The weekend “clipper” event is more likely to be a period of cloudiness late Saturday night and Sunday morning as opposed to anything else.

  23. TK – What are your thoughts regarding Thursday’s showers?

    Any chance they can hold off until early evening? I really need to have a fairly dry afternoon. Thanks in advance. šŸ™‚

    1. Early call: 2nd half of afternoon is wet. COULD hold off if the area is smaller than expected, and it very well may be. “All systems fail in a drought.” -BB

  24. You know this lakes cutter still needs to be watched as it moves more Eastward
    than Northeastward and ends up off our Coast just North and East of our area.
    Any slight change in course of this could make a huge difference.

  25. Tk, Nov looks like it wants to be average to slightly above average temp wise, would u concur? On a side note yesterday’s Patriot/Steeler game got a 44.5 tv local rating, highest Patriot game tv rating for the yr. To compare,, game 6 of this yrs world series got a 44.9. Have a great night šŸ™‚

    1. 25.2 here.

      Good news is we got a new thermostat. Bad news is I haven’t figured it out yet so heat will only go on at 4:00 am for 1 hour……if I did that correctly šŸ˜‰

    1. Euro show snowfall over Central NH, VT and Eastern Upstate NY.
      Does not show any in Southern New England, however, 850 temps are below
      freezing within about 50 or so miles from the coast. Precip, so far, not indicated to be heavy. The final resultant system blows up well East of our region.

      BTW, The Euro at 240 hours screams a rather potent system.

      Of course the Canadian and the GFS want no part of that system.

      Fun times approaching again, even if nothing materializes. šŸ˜€

  38. EURO did this to us a lot last year in that time frame, esp early in the winter. I know this sounds crazy, but i have a feeling the GFS will surprise some people with its accuracy this winter. Its been handling things well for a while now.

    1. Unless they have been silently tweaking that piece of Crap, why should we
      expect it to perform any better? If you think it has been performing well
      lately, it’s probably because the atmospheric conditions coincidentally fit the
      logic of the model. Wait until complex Winter conditions take over with rain/snow issues, coastal developments, Cold air damming etc etc etc…
      Then we’ll see how well it performs.

      “Supposedly” money has been appropriated for improvements.
      I haven’t seen any announcements to date. Has anyone?

      We shall see. šŸ˜€

      1. Tell me how u really feel OS! lol šŸ™‚

        I dont think the GFS will ever be able to predict the finer points of storms and pinpoint the things we all lock on to during winter storms, but i do think it has had a better grasp of overall patterns and has been ahead of the game as far as the larger picture is concerned.

        1. If I really said what I felt, I would be banned from this site. šŸ˜€ šŸ˜€

          Seriously though, we shall see.

  40. I don’t think its Thursday AceMaster. I think were looking at half inch or less. Will take what we could get. If we could get a widespread 1-2 inches of rain that would help.

  43. Henry Margusity ā€
    @HenryMargusity Naturally the weather weenies jump on the 1st run of the Euro with a snow. My new Weather Index shows NE Snows start after 12/6.

    I liked the old “weather weenie” Henry better. At least he gave me a good laugh. And whats with this new Weather Index of his? Must be pretty good to be able to predict with great precision snow after 12/6 šŸ™‚

    1. I put as much stock as do in Henry as I do the Almanac and that’s not much.
      I remember his tweet two years ago after Thanksgiving winter will come on with a vengance in the east. It never happened
      and that winter was a DUD!

  47. Looking at the NAO around that time its close to neutral so it is possible to get development along the east coast. Remember the blizzard the NAO was in the neutral to slightly positive category.

  48. Very busy 2 days.
    Getting caught up on comments now. If you asked me anything check above in a short while. Otherwise a new update will be posted sometime in the next little while (around or shortly after sunset).

  49. To Charlie:
    It seems to want to be milder a little more than it is cool. But these couple potent cool shots are keeping it in check for now. Euro trend is for a little bit more uphill (SW) flow in the East so that tends to keep cold shots brief and mild interludes a little longer. This is really only good out thru about mid month so we’ll see where it goes from there. The Euro Monthlies indicated a milder than average pattern through year’s end.

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