Fluff Factor

8:36PM

Our storm continues as of this writing early Thursday evening, but it has not been the same everywhere. Ocean enhancement has been the main story with the snow so far, with highest amounts along the coast and especially over Essex County MA, which will likely be the snow jackpot region as the ocean effect snow continues and combines with energy coming from the southwest that would have produced some decent snow by itself. This means that many of the areas that didn’t see a whole lot of snow will get a slug of moderate to heavy snow during the night and early morning, with several inches falling. With much on the ground already close to the eastern MA coast, as stated above, amounts will be highest in those areas. Along with the snow will be the bitter cold air and strong northeast wind eventually shifting more to the north. When the shift more to the north takes place, that’s when most of the accumulating snow will take place over places like Cape Cod and the Islands. When this is all done, accumulations should be from around 6 inches in southwestern RI to around a foot in much of interior eastern MA, up to around 18 inches in much of east coastal MA, with a jackpot of up to 20-24 inches in parts of Essex County MA. Blowing and drifting snow will be significant.

Bitterly cold air will continue to pour into the region as the storm departs on Friday, and early Saturday will bring some of the coldest air the region has seen in quite a long while. By Sunday, temperatures will moderate a little, but the next storm system will be approaching. Believe it or not, this storm looks like it will travel just west of New England, dragging lots of warm air up with it, and producing a slug of rain, that will obliterate a good amount of the fluff dump of snow we are receiving now. As that storm goes by, another batch of Arctic air awaits, and we’ll be back to the deep freeze by Tuesday and early Wednesday, before the next moderation takes place later next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Snow, heavy at times. Considering blowing and drifting snow. Blizzard conditions near the eastern MA and NH coasts. Temperatures fall through the teens in South Coastal areas and sit in the single numbers above zero elsewhere in the region. Wind NE to N 15-35 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Snow continuing in the morning but gradually tapering off from west to east. Cloudy to start but breaking clouds as snow ends with some sun in the afternoon hours. Blowing and drifting snow all day. Temperatures around 10. Wind N 15-35 MPH and gusty. Wind chills well below zero.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Some blowing snow. Lows -10 to 0. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH early, diminishing somewhat.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 15-20. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 10-15. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 32-37. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: AM rain, PM sun/clouds. Temperature rising into 50s early then falling to 30s.

TUESDAY: Passing clouds with snow showers. Lows 0-10. Highs 10-20.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 0-10. Highs 20-30.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 10-20. Highs 30-40.

468 thoughts on “Fluff Factor”

  1. Thank you TK.

    Quite the storm system, eh? I’m loving it.
    Too bad it’s all going down the drain in a few days!

    5.4 here and still going down. Absolutely incredible!

    Still snowing like, well as the old Mets used to say, snowing to beat the band. πŸ˜€

    1. For sure. I believe it’s even exceeding the initial expectations of even the most aggressive prognosticators here. But once in a great while we do get a system like this.

      I can’t remember if I typed this earlier on the blog, but it’s worth re-typing. This entire regime with the super temp swings and contrasts, “oddly behaving storms” (which is in quotes because there really is no such thing, just things that occur more or less often than others), reminds me very much of the regime during the 1970s. We’re back in that regime which may correspond to long term indices like the PDO and AO.

      1. You did add it earlier but I could hear it over and over and its with repeating. I feel, so far this year, as if I’m experiencing dΓ©jΓ  vu. Who was it earlier that said many of us are olds but when it comes to snow we are all kids again. Was it Ace?? Sorry I don’t remember but how very true it is.

  2. Thanks tk. Should be a wild night. I’m not sure what time it started snowing here overnight but it has been going all day. Wind is getting ramped up now.

      1. It’s weird Vicki but it’s nice. My wife and son have been so excited all day. I’ve been the most relaxed this week than I can remember, probably since disney in early May. Now were all sitting down to watch grow ups 2.

        1. It truly is. It seems since I’ve joined this blog a couple of years ago, we have been in for many surprises. I think we’re in for a few more this evening. Be safe!

  3. I have not been over the wbz blog in well over a year or so but had the time this week. This guy jack is like bashing anybody who posts. Grow up dude.

  4. Wunderground is failing me tonight with it’s Nexrad radar which has not updated in nearly an hour.

    1. Awesome Hadi. Many thanks.

      Observations from Logan:

      030127 VV009 0.25 SNBLSN 7 1 3621G27 G27

      030054 BKN011 OVC017 0.25 SNBLSN 6 1 3617G25

      022354 VV010 0.25 SNFZFG
      022254 OVC009 0.25 +SNFZF 10 6 3517 157

      022247 OVC009 0.25 +SNFZF 10 7
      3515
      022244 BKN009 OVC014 0.25 -SNBR 10 7 3514
      022240 BKN011 OVC017 0.25 -SN

      Vis has been .25 miles since 5:44 pm

  5. Westwood has over a half a foot and beginning to really come down. Stronger echoes are beginning to fill in from our southwest. This is the real meat and potatoes coming in now from the developing area of lower pressure to our south. Do not be fooled by the radar as it appears the north shore is not getting into the act. Due to the extremely low dew points, it may appear on radar that they are not receiving heavy snow, but they are. As one moves south where dew points are higher, echoes look more impressive. However, everyone is in it now. This is it. We are in the heavy stuff for a good 10-12 additional hours. My peak amounts of 20 inches are too conservative as a few locales could exceed 25 inches!

  6. This storm is great! I’m looking forward to seeing what the numbers look like in the morning.

    On another note is there anyway that Sunday/Monday storm trends colder? With such a deep snow pack I would think it would go a little further south and east.

  7. Holy moly !!

    The last 2 hrs have been downright like a blizzard ! Visibility less than 1/4 mile, blowing snow, moderate snow, windy !!

    Probably went from 2.5 inches at 6:30pm to about 6 or 7 at 9pm. Thick misty snow, with some bigger snowflakes mixed in. One of the more intense storms in my 12 years down here.

    1. Been like that here most of the day. πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€
      Enjoy!

      What’s your temp down that way?

  8. Not sure how good it’ll do, but I’m going outside to remove a layer of snow from all driving and walking surfaces. This should be about 90 minutes to 2 hours…………. Here goes. πŸ™‚

  9. Back from Logan Airport – ride in was less than an hour, ride out was almost 2 hours. It was 26ΒΊ leaving the airport at 7:15PM and 4ΒΊ here in Sherborn at 9:00PM. The Pike was a total mess, mainly due to blowing snow – visibility was generally ok, but within a few minutes after a plow sortie would pass, the pavement was covered/slick. The best roads I found were in Framingham, I am not sure what they are spraying or how many pieces of equipment they have, but Route 30 and Speen St. looked great.

    1. Mac said same thing. Coming home at 3-4 all roads were horrendous but framingham. And we are NOT known for good snow removal. Wonder what they did

  10. Wow, 6F at Logan, 27F at Boston Harbor buoy and 30F in Marshfield. Crazy, I love it !!

    Well, except if the power goes out, then the pipes are in BIG trouble.

    1. At least with Nemo, it got down to the low 20s afterward (only) and the house stayed around 38F without power for 3 days.

  11. Oh, here we go !!

    Boston Harbor buoy at 8:50pm ….

    Wind backing more to NNE …. Temp down 2+ degrees last hour to 25F.

    This just may add a little more intensity to the bands in SE Mass. Verry interested in the radar for South Shore next 2-4 hrs.

  12. Just came in from shoveling and WOW its coming down out there. Quincy has got to be close to a foot now. It’s down to 8 degrees and its cold blowing snow…Just saw NWS service updated snow map for essex county 24-30 inches!!

        1. We don’t have much at all. I’ll be surprised if we wake up with 14ish. Areas I measure are as protected as possible and its around 4

  13. By the way ….. and you’ll have to forgive me, as I’ve been at a neighborhood blizzard party and had a few drinks …..

    Where the heck is Charlie ?

    I want a report from Attleboro and I want to hear its doing nothing down there now. πŸ™‚

    1. Good for you. Just went out for a peek and I think that 2nd piece is making its way in fast. Wind is roaring and the temp is dropping. Boy I’m impressed for living in a back big neighborhood the plows just keep going by one after the other.

  14. Looking at WHDH radar and there’s quite a dry slot over Springfield – north. Also, the heavier precip seems to be staying to our south. Will that continue to be the trend tonight, or will we see heavier bands track further north?

    1. The NAM had a pretty sharp drop off in snow in the Pioneer/CT River Valley, so I am not sure is is just the dynamics of this particular setup or if it is meaningful in some other way.

    2. I’ve been noticing that too shotime. The whole thing is moving more east than north now that the coastal low has taken over

    3. I really believe the bands on the south will just be getting heavier. The south shore where some of us on here reside will come in with huge numbers come first light and continue to add to say mid morning. So say if it goes like this here with the wind direction changing and temps continuing to drop the next say 12+ hrs will be nasty.

  15. Picked up a quick inch of snow in the last hr, just measured and got about 4 inches, it’s drifting, so u have to be careful and take multiple measurements, foxboro is at 4.5 inches and Wrentham also is at 4 inches, ill be up late tonight reporting
    Thanks tk

  16. Snow should begin to taper off between 6-9am, final clean ups will be performed between that time, then a layer of salt. Temp is dropping

      1. Next week if everything’s goes as planned, but I will still be on here reporting hadi, I’ll still be around πŸ™‚

    1. I was noticing that too. But you would never know it looking out my window right now…snow is very fine however and I wonder if that’s not reflecting well on the radar??

  17. We have to watch the heavy snow to the south, and the dry air eroding the north and western edge of precip

  18. Friday’s record at Logan is -1. We could hit that shortly with a snowstorm in progress. I can’t remember that ever happening.

  19. Would you believe that this storm is actually going to under perform what its potential turned out to be? A good amount of the southern energy is going to stay offshore and not get completely involved in the snow production anywhere in southern New England. That said, a fair amount of it still is involved, and along with the ocean effect, still producing the bigger #’s closer to the eastern shores and just inland a little bit.

    That moisture running underneath the region is probably costing about a half foot in potential accumulation. Things are also moving a little more quickly than modeled. The peak snow will probably be sooner rather than later, and over a bit earlier. This will likely keep most areas from reaching the top end accumulations, though a few still may. I’ll be surprised if anybody comes in over 22 inches (max amounts), with the possible exception of somewhere in Essex County. THAT is your jackpot area, not areas to the south (though they do very well).

    1. TK what’s your call for Woburn (snow total)? Also, when do you think it shuts off for us? Thanks!

              1. I’m sorry tk but I think that may be off respectfully. It’s snowing like crazy here now and the wind is just howling .

  20. 0.8 and I can’t keep my eyes open. Someone please wake me if there is thunder snow. Enjoy the storm. One of those nights I hope that 3:00 hour finds me awake…..

        1. Not so much too cold. When you get thundersnow the convection is usually based at mid levels and warmth is relative. It’s all about the lift. We are just lacking a strong or rapidly deepening low pressure area. This is far from a classic set-up. It’s not a text book “northeaster”.

  21. Just took measurements. 6″ solid in Sharon. I thought it would be more. 3″ at 6pm so doubled my total in 4 and a half hours which is good. About 2/3″ per hour rate on average. Not too shabby. The most snow i’ve had in one storm all season!

  22. well, I don’t have an anemometer, but my ears tell me the wind is cranking outside my window – the back flood lights visually confirm it – glad this is not the heavy wet stuff or I would be firing up a generator at some point

  23. Well 11.9 as of 10 pm so no doubt we reach close to 18 here. Very happy how the storm has played out. I remember seeing some calls for 2-4 3-6 and isolated 6-10 and I knew that was way off. Heading to bed in a little bit and see what we end up with in the morning.

  24. Terri from bz still calling for another 10inches down here. He said nor Easters usually always have a surprise and that was Essex county

  25. Just a quick update from Hingham. Some of the heaviest snow of the storm right now. Visibility is less than a 1/4 mile and the winds are howling…snow is blowing horizontally. Very tough to judge how much we’ve had here with the blowing and drifting…My deck has almost no snow on it :).

    1. Another thing I’m seeing on the radar is that every time it looks to be eroding it then blooms back up a little.

  26. I’m already thinking warmup and rain in 48 hrs, from reporting this, hospitals and plow drivers can plan on not having to pay money to actually remove the snow, and just let it melt, from Sun am to Mon evening temps will be above freezing with rain, ok back to the storm

    1. Are you freaking nuts? Hospitals and plow drivers not removing snow and just let it melt. What planet are you on. I can tell you that there is no way the med center I work at would do that. Snow removal will be the #1 priority. All it takes is for one patient or employee to go down and a huge lawsuit happens (not too mention overall safety being taken into account). You are certifiable.

      1. Working at one of the top hospitals in boston I can tell you we bust our ass during these events, work all night long to keep it safe and passable. Snow removal is of the highest priority and I know because it’s my job. Case closed.

    2. Charlie you can’t do that at a hospital. You don’t want to start this conversation with me. Just let it sit at the hospital and melt.

      1. Ok guys hospitals r important of course never said they weren’t, I take care of 3 hospitals I’m Mass and 3 in RI including Brigham and women’s, also I give weather reports to 4 area hospitals CFO’s and have 6 schools, John ill talk all day about it, it’ll be my 20th yr in charge of it all,

        1. Come on man. Your in charge and you make a stupid ass comment like that. And to boot saying you take care of schools and hospitals. Why are you posting on here and not out running your crew in a big storm like this. I just wish you thought about that comment cause man that rubbed me the wrong way. Here I sit on vacation feeling guilty cause I’m not working it. Never,never, never would we let snow sit on any of our property or roofs, never.

    3. And again why are you not out working in the field right now. I’m starting to doubt things that you say.

    4. The melt-down comes late Sunday at the earliest. Friday/Saturday… Big problems because you will get a melt-freeze where salt was used. It’s not too cold for salt to melt snow initially but believe me, Friday night it would freeze solid. Everything should be removed as efficiently as possible Friday daytime. All it takes is one incident.

      At the very least it only lasts until late Sunday/Monday when it goes above freezing for enough time to get rid of it.

  27. Poor eric fisher, hes been designated for assignment in the mobile weather lab all day and all night

  28. Tk do you think this storm will pivit? because as i mentioned earlier and other people as well mentioned how the snow is moving east. Is the heaviest snow over in the northshore area around Reading-woburn area? If it wasn’t for the ocean enchancement i think this storm would have been a bust, I think we got more snow from the ocean effect than the actual low

  29. Tk Harvey makes no mention on what your saying. He is saying its going to keep cranking all night. 3 degrees in Boston down to 28 in Plymouth.

    1. Conservatory Park…just up the street from me is showing 12 degrees on the Wundermap. Should be a lot of fun shoveling out tomorrow. The med center is opening at 1 for patients and 12 for employees. I could work from home but since I’m so close I’ll try to get in around 9 and leave around 3 ( will have to shovel out my mother in law).

    2. It will snow all night, but I think they will add a little less than some are predicting. Still, significant.

  30. Charlie maybe 6-10 for you but that’s no isolated. Not going to argue what people get or called for. Just happy to get this type of snow in this pattern.

  31. Ok guys hospitals r important of course never said they weren’t, I take care of 3 hospitals I’m Mass and 3 in RI including Brigham and women’s, also I give weather reports to 4 area hospitals CFO’s and have 6 schools, John ill talk all day about it, it’ll be my 20th yr in charge of it all,

    1. People are trusting your weather reports…ok…now I’ll pick myself up off the floor. Quick someone call Brigham and Women’s and tell them about this forum πŸ˜‰

          1. Your missing my point Einstein. If people who you “give weather reports” to ever read this forum and saw your post about letting it “melt” they’d be wondering why they listen to you. Hopefully someone from those hospitals will read this forum.

  32. Still snowing moderate to heavy here in Foxboro, I measured 6.5 inches WOW!! Another inch in last hr or so

  33. A big problem out on the roads bc it’s so cold is the wipers r freezing and not making a clean scrape, automatic freezing

  34. 11 inches of pure powder, tring to convince my Dad to go skiing saturday night before the freezing rain/rain event hits us sunday night into early monday morning

    1. John I didn’t mean any offense to you, it’s just the way I write things, I’m sure u do bust your ass, anyways r u gonna be out all night?

    1. Another 1-3 inches NW, 3-6 inches SE if you draw a line from Cape Ann thru Boston to northern RI. May be locally heavier ocean-effect bands South Shore.

  35. You give weather reports? So you gave them 2-4 and 3-6 for today. If you did I would fire you right away. Come on Charlie let the professionals handle that. I also think your comment was disrespectful for the plow drivers out there who take of care of these places.

      1. So basically you lie about your forecast here. So why are you even here then? Makes no sense. Anyway done with this back to what’s important

  36. S+ the last couple hrs. The airport’s reported 0 visibility isnt far off, it may be 1/4 mile……

    Snow is steadily to heavily falling, wind is ferocious and temp is coming down.

    This is right up there with Nemo, with the big difference being dry snow vs wet snow thankfully having a positive impact on retaining power.

    Cant believe Logan is 2 ……….. 2F !!!!! Cant ever recall seeing this !!

      1. 10. Complete guess because there are plenty spots in my yard with 4 or 5 and then, in sheltered spots, that are getting snow off the roof, etc ……. there’s 15+.

        Its been a whiteout basically the last 5 hrs. Had about 3 inches at 7pm and I’m comfortable saying we’ve been avging 1.5 inch per hr the last 5 hrs, so thats where my 10 comes from.

  37. 2.5 here. nite all. Tomorrow.
    Still snowing OK.

    Where is the NE wind? Been North ALL evening. Costing plenty in ocean
    enhancement.

  38. Just imagine if that dark blue echoes well south of us were to come up, they look like there moving east

  39. If I’ve calculated Logan’s melted correctly, according to their reported obs …..

    It is at ………….. .34 (astonishing …. because I’ll bet they are close to 9 or 10 inches) and so, they are avg 25:1 , maybe even 30:1.

    Rare indeed, but snowing in the single digits the last several hrs, I guess thats what you get.

  40. snow is falling and its negative 2 degrees, i actually wonder how much of this powder will survive sunday and monday. πŸ™ does not look good. πŸ™

    1. Well, some will sublimate with the sun this weekend …… And then the rest will compact to about 2-4 inches of snow during the brief mild, wet spell Sun night/Monday morning in your area.

      Down here, we’ll probably be back to snow piles and green grass. πŸ™‚

    2. I’ve been saying that, there will be a 36 hr period where we stay above freezing along with rain, we shall see πŸ™‚

    1. Good night John, and my dad goes to your hospital occasionally and we appreciate all your hard work, thank u πŸ™‚

  41. Logan’s down to 1F …… 1F !!!!!!!

    Marshfield just went 360 for wind direction and dropped 2F in last hour. The plunge is about to arrive.

  42. The whiteout continues …. its even more intense now !! Visibility is 0 !!

    I’ve got no snow on parts of my front walkway …..

    A multi-ft snow drift on the downwind side of my car …..

  43. At 7 pm last night, the visibility in Marshfield dropped to 1/4 mile. It has been either 1/4 mile or 0 since ….. for 9.5 hours now.

    1. At 7pm last night when the 1/4 mile or less visibility began, we had 3 inches of snow.

      Conservatively, its been snowing at a rate of 1 inch per hr since then, with perhaps a rate of 1.5 inches per hr.

      So, without directly measuring ….. I’d offer we’ve seen somewhere btwn 12-16 inches so far.

  44. Lots of snow Tom. I can’t tell what we have. Everything is so wind blown. My husbands office in Watertown closed. I think they have done that only a couple times in 40 years he’s been there….not including 1978 feb storm

  45. Good morning, Been up all night, continuing to snow at varying rates, it depends where u are for sure, about 10 inches in Wrentham and 10 inches in Foxboro, but places in Attleboro caught up some and r now up to 9 inches, back edge of precip is already in central mass, sun looks to be out by noon, good day all πŸ™‚

  46. Doing final clean ups and then a layer of salt going down starting in 30 min’s, the actual storm was moving super quick, a 12 hr storm for these parts, 6pm-6am, back edge of precip is quickly approaching the 495 belt

  47. Looks like will be opening at 11 but I am heading in soon. Good news is that my car is barely covered in snow. One big advantage to the blowing snow!

  48. The drive from Hanover to Norwood was slow but manageable. Biggest problem was ice forming on your windshield when you slowed down under 15mph.

    1. Totally coastal, roads r definitely manageable, the freezing on windshield has been problems all night

  49. News was reporting salt isn’t working due to low temps. I can see the main road at the end of our street and maybe 3 cars have gone by in past 30 minutes. Our road is well plowed so I assume all of framingham is since we normally are done last. I hope anyone who does have to go out has a safe trip

  50. Ugh, my work isnt cancelled. VP says parking lot is clear. Well thats great mr VP, horray for having a place to park my car, but theres a lot more to it than just the parking lot, lol.

  51. Morning all.

    My Office is closed today. πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€

    I was too tired to stay up any longer last night.

    Snow is winding down here.

    I couldn’t venture a guess as to how much fell. Well I will. See below. I really don’t think the intensity of the snow was all that great all night.

    I’m going to get some breakfast a little later and go out and shovel at which time I’ll take a bunch of measurements. Hopefully I’ll be surprised.

    A nice little storm. Amazing temperatures. Nice snowfall rates from about 5:30Pm to
    about 10 or 11 PM at which time it backed off a bit.

    Let’s give it 5 hours at 1.5 inches per hour, that’s 7.5 on top of 5 that I measured,
    brings it to about 12.5 at 11PM. Since then rate is about .5 inch to .75 inch per hour,
    perhaps at times 1 inch. Give it .75 ave, then we have 7 hours at .75 or about 5 more inches. So total guess would be 16-18 inches, OR just about on target.

    So I won’t know till I measure.

    I rant. Sorry.

    Temp bottomed out at 1.6, now at 2.7.

      1. I really have no excuse for not going to work today, i live less than 5 miles from work, lol. Let the digging begin!

  52. Snow totals as of 5AM:

    BOSTON (CBS) – Here are the latest snowfall totals from the National Weather Service in Boston and Rob Macedo, the SKYWARN Coordinator for the National Weather Service in Taunton, for the January 2-3 storm, as of 5 a.m. Friday.

    Town Amount
    Ipswich 23.0
    Boxford 21.0
    Topsfield 19.5
    Georgetown 17.0
    Rowley 16.5
    Hamilton 15.0
    Lynn 15.0
    Boston 13.5
    Swampscott 13.4
    Wakefield 13.0
    Sharon 12.0
    Nahant 12.0
    Marblehead 11.7
    Winthrop 10.6
    Wilmington 10.5
    Rockport 10.3
    Peabody 10.0
    Cambridge 10.0
    Randolph 9.5
    Brewster 9.5
    Sandwich 9.0
    Acushnet 8.8
    Brockton 8.0

  53. Charlie, do u know what building the fire was in last night in NA? I heard 2 fires actually? One a house fire and another an apt with businesses?

      1. Be careful bc those reports are based in a different times. Or Boston number was report at 11:12 pm last night.

  54. Thanks os, seems about right for this area, a general widespread 10 inches across foxboro to Wrentham to Attleboro

  55. Still dumping here. I had 12 as of 10 pm last night spot was cleared off and now 8 new inches. So a total of 20 so far. Boston has 13.5 as of 11:12 last night, downtown not Logan.

    OS it has been dumping all night intensity has been pretty hard. I woke up around 4 and it was whiteout.

    1. Hadi,

      Looking out the window, It just doesn’t look like that much. It can be deceiving. We shall see. We never agree on measurements as far as I
      can remember. πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€

      I’ll go out when the snow quits.

      Still accumulating. Looks like one last band is rotating in.

      May still pick up another inch or 2. πŸ˜€

  56. I will bet u that 12″ ob from Sharon is the same “general public” ob from the last storm who reported about double what we actually had. They shouldnt be allowed to report. I havent been out to measure but i can assure u, that ob is incorrect. 9 or 10 tops from the looks of it.

    1. They do that a lot am, I’ll go out and measure 10 inches, and I’ll see a report in foxboro of 14 2.5 miles away, and it always happens, o well, I know what we got

        1. Agree DS 99% of people are accurate and responsible. This is a tough storm bc of the drifting and blowing.

        2. I’ve been told by a guy name bill at the news station that they get a lot of crazy numbers during powdery storms that drift, and believe it or not when u get the same weather watcher calling in high or low numbers on a consistent basis it raises suspicion, be careful out there

          1. Are you a trained weather reporter? Have you gone to weather spotter training? I would think that someone in your position would be required to, at least, do that, since you are responsible for so many peoples safety. Have you?

    1. Thanks Hadi.

      Hey, btw on Eric Fisher’s broadcast last night, he had some snow totals,
      Including 12 inches from Jamaica Plain. Hmmm It could ONLY have been you,
      because it wasn’t I.

      Fess up. πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€

        1. I gotta say that sounds about right, even if it doesn’t
          look like it looking out the window.

          I’ll compare numbers with you a little later. πŸ˜€

  57. NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…

    ***AN ALL OUT BLIZZARD ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST
    THROUGH MID MORNING AND TRAVEL IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED***

    640 AM UPDATE…

    A WILD EARLY MORNING ACROSS PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
    AS SEVERAL SITES HAVE MET OFFICIAL BLIZZARD CRITERIA. HEAVY SNOW
    WAS BEING ACCOMPANIED BY 45 TO 55 MPH WINDS RESULTING IN
    VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE QUARTER OF A MILE AND PRETTY MUCH WHITEOUT
    CONDITIONS. TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED IN THIS REGION THESE
    CONDITIONS ARE A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOING BOMBOGENESS AS IT
    PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.

    1. Not sure if the winds are that strong here in Hingham but the snow is still pretty intense.

    1. Measured in three spots in a fairly guarded spot in the south end, where there seems to have been very little drifting. Average was 16.9.

    1. Huh? There are delays everywhere. That information is all over the news, and all over the mbta website.

  58. Why would anyone fudge numbers? Maybe people make slight mistakes but if you look at observations around the same area and they are similar then it’s ok to go with it.

  59. Good Morning Everyone. Well it’s still snowing to beat the band down here in Hingham. I got up about about 20 minutes ago. Stuck my head out and it’s hard to tell how much has fallen..maybe 14 or 15 inches. I’ll measure later. 5 degrees and winds out of the NE here. Will start the process of digging out in about an hour or so after some breakfast.

  60. Hadi,

    It was You who reported to Eric Fisher and Barry Burbank the 12 inches for JP.
    I knew it. I just viewed your tweets. πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€

  61. I thought this was funny, I said to my wife, is there any chance of a closing, lol she says noooooo, they sent an email out yesterday at 3pm letting everyone know the office will be opening on normal hours today, so much for that, way to nip that right in the bud

  62. Wow …….

    I keep sleeping for about 2-3 hrs, thinking when I get up, it will have relaxed some.

    Wind-whipped whiteout continues and it is snowing heavily !!!

    Visibility : 0.

    Amazing.

    I hope the coast is going to be ok at noon today and avoid serious flooding.

  63. In Sudbury it is lightly snowing; about 1/2 hour ago we had 8 inches of snow; it is 2 degrees and we don’t have much wind ‘though there is some blowing snow.

  64. Still pretty wild here too Tom. Looking at the radar and even though the area of snow is shrinking there is still some intense banding taking place.

    1. Yes ….. With the storm’s snow shield moving away, perhaps we’ll be able to see where the actual intense snow bands are currently sitting.

      I’m pretty sure Hingham and Marshfield are both under a band.

  65. Boxford over 2′. Logan may end up at 15.”

    I just shoveled out the cars and it was relatively easy. It is cold, but the snow was so light.

  66. A girl i went to high school with was a co-owner of the salon on the first floor of that building that burned down in NA last night.

  67. All and all the storm verified nicely with 12+ along coast, 8-12 just inland, and 6-10 west and north, great job tk and all the bloggers, a well predicted storm

  68. From NWS:

    US National Weather Service Boston MA
    Storm total for Logan Airport as of 7 AM is 14.6 inches. Storm total for BDL is 9.1 inches as of 7 AM.

    I believe BDL is Bradley Airport near Hartford, CT.

  69. I’d say we have about 8. I will measure later as well. Snow slowing considerably. Temp up to a whopping 3 degrees. Wind still 5-16 with slightly higher gusts.

  70. Ok ….

    Nemo (last Feb), that Dec 9 blizzard with Thundersnow and Cape winds to 100 mph, Jan 2005 blizzard, President’s Day storm 2003, this current event ….

    I’m thinking of how they rank in intensity, impact, believability.

    1. You know, I am drawing a total blank on 2 of these.

      These 2: Jan 2005 blizzard, President’s Day storm 2003

      Total and complete blank. I guess they weren’t memorable to me???

      1. The Jan 05 was pretty wild here in Hingham. I was living in Winthrop for the President’s Day storm and while it was a good storm it doesn’t stand out in my mind the way the Jan 05 does.

      2. 2003 one we were actually vacationing in Florida, but came home to deep snow. It didnt have much wind, the pressure wasnt very low, it just snowed a lot in a very cold airmass.

        2005 blizzard gave the Cape and coastal SE Mass 20-30 inches of wet snow. I actually remember a bit of rain in the middle of the storm. It was a much slower moving storm.

  71. After the arctic blast the middle of next week, it looks like Canada will have exhausted a good deal of its arctic air supply and may need a week to 10 days to reload.

    Could be a well deserved 7-10 day break from winter locally, perhaps Jan 10-20 ?????

    1. So then, let’s cut to the chase. You’re predicting THE January THAW
      for that time period. πŸ˜€

    1. GEEZ, I committed a Sin.
      That link was from Fox. Damn!!! I didn’t realize it until I posted
      it.
      I despise everything FOX!

  72. So just after I said the snow has lightened up–the wind has increased and gotten very gusty…snow blowing around like crazy at times.

  73. Unscientific list ….. Best Marshfield weather events (that I can remember) since 2001 (when we moved here).

    8) 100F + day in July (22nd ??), 2011. No seabreeze, it was 90F by around 8am.

    7) the 4 successive snow events (every Wed. in Jan 2011, with the last one Feb (1st ??), 2011. Deepest snow depth I’ve ever seen in Marshfield. It was an adventure turning out of roads, trying to see above and around snow piles.

    6) 2003 Presidents Day storm. Came back to a lot of snow. Lying evenly everywhere. Not a sign of wind.

    5) jan 2005 blizzard. Tons of wet snow, lost many school days because it was so difficult to clean it up and have somewhere to put it. Wet snow ….. Aside, we got 4-8 inches a few days later. Another deep snowpack in Marshfield.

    4) Dec 9 blizzard (2005). A good chunk of storm in eastern Marshfield was rain. Got 5 quick inches on departing backside with thundersnow. Thankfully, we did not get the full force of the Cape Cod winds and tree damage.

    3) Dec 26-27, 2010 storm …. Not much snow, but the coastal flooding in Brant Rock and Scituate was moderate to severe. Saw a few boulders that needed to be moved out of Brant Rock that were eye-openers.

    2) this current event …… 10 + straight hrs of heavy, wind whipped, extreme low visibility snow and ……. the temperatures during the event, especially to the northwest of us just have me floored !!! Thankfully no power impact, as of now, but the ocean enhancement and the arctic temperatures make me put this storm this high on this list.

    1) NEMO last year. The snow, yes, the wind, yes, but the impact of the power outages and the duration the power was out …… Unforgettable.

  74. I made it to work but it wasn’t pretty. The roads are awful since I only travel the back ones. We have now delayed our branch openings until noon.

  75. Wow. I was reading Terry’s blog on BZ and made the mistake of looking at the comments to see if baileyman had posted. It is literally a cesspool over there. I have always felt badly for the mets who put their time into creating the blog but this is over the top.

  76. Chicago’s temps for Mon and Tues. -11/-8 -12/-1 “The last time temperatures were this low was during early February of 1996 in Chicago and vicinity.” from Accuweather

  77. Not sure about the T but I live right by the Greenbush Commuter rail line and it sure as heck isn’t running a full schedule. I’ve only counted about 4 or 5 runs since I got up around 6:45.

  78. Just came in from Shoveling. My hands got so cold, I had to stop.

    Took a crap load of measurements. With all due respect to any other measurements/measurers, All my measurements were between 9 and 12 inches, with the over whelming majority right smack at 11. Plus I measured 6 inches in all the spots I cleared 5 inches from last evening.

    I was speaking to a neighbor who was out shoveling (he’s older than me mind you)
    and informed him of a 19.8 inch report for JP. His immediate reaction was
    “NO WAY” I told him 11 and he said, that sounds about right.

    11 inches is my final total and I’m sicking with it. πŸ˜€

    I knew it only looked like a foot or so. πŸ˜€

      1. Believe me I wanted to measure more. It is what it is.
        I was not impressed with snow intensity and accumulation
        verifies that. Hadi is less than 2 miles down the road he
        he measured 20? I dunno what to say.

    1. I have some mittens my inlaws brought us years ago from Sweden. They are knit. Water does not penetrate nor does cold. No idea why we don’t make them here or at least import them

  79. If your going out bundle up. I just shoveled my deck and dug my car out and it was cold but this will feel mild compared to what is coming tonight.
    Next system looks mostly rain then late next week maybe more snow. Certainly the pattern is active.

  80. Total snowcount in Sudbury – 9 inches. Mostly cloudy here but sun is trying to come out. There is blowing snow and temp. is 7 degrees.

  81. Tons of snow here guessing 15 inches and still snowing. When I went to bed at 1am I reported it was cranking than and boy did it crank.

      1. Sure did ace. I’m going to venture out soon as I slept in cause I was up late. I’ll attemp a measurement but I’m telling you just standing on my front porch sure looks close to 2 feet. Might be off but maybe not by much, wow!!!

  82. Just got into work. Mr. VP said the parking lot was clear? Mr. VP was wrong! Roads are slow but manageable. In this type of snow and cold is very difficult to get down to pavement. Love the smell of the fresh snow and the clean air, something invigorating about it. And the crunch sound of the snow under foot.

    I took many measurements around my property. The best average i could come up with was 9.5.” Sounds about right. Most neighboring towns got about the same. I went to bed at midnight with 6.5.” I really thought the intensity of the snow would be higher overnight but 3″ in about a 7 hour period was all. This will go down as a solid storm, more notable for its localized ocean affect intensity and extreme cold temps during and after. I’ll take it and run!

    1. Is Mr VP there? And I am glad you have arrived safely. I also love the smell of fresh snow and the crunch reminds me of early mornings heading off to the slope with the snow squeaking beneath my ski boots.

      1. Oh he’s here alright, getting a lot of dirty looks, lol. Oh the crunching snow under the ski boots, ahhh…..makes me wanna get out on the slopes now!

        1. I bet he is.

          I was grinning from ear to ear as I typed the ski boots comment but never realized it until I posted. Amazing how some smells and sounds, etc. bring back powerful memories. I wouldn’t have thought of it if you hadn’t mentioned walking on the snow so thank you!!

  83. The Cape got some huge numbers as well. 15″ for Harwich?!? Wow! Most of that fell the wee hours of this morning

  84. Why oh why do I go to the BZ weather blog. BaileyMan is now getting clobbered for an incredibly reasonable statement re climate change. I do wish he’d come here.

    1. Not for a long while…..until just now πŸ™‚ I am not a fan of individuals piling on a poster….especially one who is as polite as BaileyMan. I suspect that doesn’t surprise anyone πŸ™‚

      1. Although I may continue to follow it more. I am becoming a huge fan of Eric Fisher. Not like TK of course and JMA or anyone here but I like the way he lays out his explanation. Pete does pretty well with the maps but Eric is easy for me to follow.

        1. Could be me but I don’t post as Vicki. A few real nasty individuals, however, know my real name from another time.

  85. Dont know what to tell you OS my neighbor who has lived here for 65 years took Measurement and came up with 17.8 and 19.4 and 18.6. I trust my measurement were accurate also based on the back bay having 17 inches. You must have measured in an area that got blown with the wind.

  86. Sorry Vicki but channel 7 was the worst. They had the lowest numbers by far. I love Pete but he has had a bad winter so far.

  87. We ended up with about 8.8 inches in westborough. The temp is up to 12 from a low of -1 last night. Currently trying to get a rough estimate of the snow ratios

    1. Tell me about it. I just visited there myself a few mins ago to see what all the fuss was about. I don’t understand why baileyman doesnt want to post here. He seems like he would have a lot to add. He cant even get an honest insightful discussion there.

      1. Ace I think it was a couple of years ago I begged him to come here. Perhaps if Someone has a safe email they can invite him again.

        1. I wonder if he’s tried? With all the spam and trolls that try to get in everyday, i can imagine its hard to tell who’s who

          1. I believe tk knows his style. Also whatever tk does for trolls here it works. Some women fell through the cracks last year but I believe he handled that. I think her name was linda as she bashed arod. Arod knows his stuff and were lucky to have him.

            1. I can create a safe email but I think TK said he had personally asked him. I’ll wait to hear what TK says. I think we discussed this last year

    1. I think some wintry precipitation for the interior on that onset but mostly a rainorama with the low cutting to the west bringiing
      up a southerly flow. A brief warmup before the next batch of cold air moves in then maybe a little more snow about a week
      from now.

      1. Looking that way. Brief warmup and rain for these parts than a brief real cold shot followed by a mild stretch towards end of the week.

  88. I got 11 In two spots and 14 in another but I would not call them good. I’m thinking 17 is a very reasonable number. Plymouth came in at just under 16 inches. That’s alot of snow.

  89. sadly my mom says that i can’t go skiing this weekend πŸ™ though going friday of next week, to cranmore mountain. πŸ™‚ hopefully the rain does not screw up the snow pack. have about 13 inches in the back yard. 10 inches in the front. that additional 3 inches in the back are probably do to the wind comming off the marsh behind my house. that is new snowfall not the 3 inches of crunchy ice snow.

    1. Not all hadi agree. But this snow is light and if the sun is out Sunday followed by rain and warmth Monday a good chunk of it will be gone.

  90. The warmup is on Sunday/ Monday after some real cold tonight and tomorrow. I think tonight will be the coldest night in sometime.

  91. If we get to 50 with an inch of rain, you can kiss ALL of this snow
    good bye. ALL of it, save maybe some snowbanks.

    This stuff just vanishes virtually instantly.

    I remember a similar situation years ago, where we got a foot of fluff, much of it ocean
    enhanced, only to have it ALL disappear exactly 2 days later.

    I predict it happens again. (Unless there is a change in this system and we get
    a mix or something)

  92. Ok for this up coming event im going out on a limb and saying that i think some cold air tries to stay expecially in the valleys. Possibly need to look for minor ice acreations as far east as 128 . so thinking. freezing rain, rain and sleet mix for anyone outside of 128. and this thing also ends as some snow as the cold comes right back in. Anyone else. also not thinking that much in the way of precipitation, thinking maybe .25-.6 inches of water. Though this snow is very light im not sure how much of it will melt.. i still have 3 inches of the old snow that was here before the recent storm.
    http://merrimackvalleyweather.wordpress.com/2014/01/03/old-man-winter-is-throwing-punches/

  93. Sadly, I agree with OS. This snow will go very quickly. It will even start melting tomorrow under sunny skies. But Sunday and Monday will do a number on this kind of snow. Back to dirty snowbanks by Tuesday. Too bad. It’s my one complaint this winter, way too much back and forth: the proverbial roller-coaster.

    Today’s a beautiful day in my book. Fresh snow. Nothing melting. Refreshingly cold. My run this morning was awesome. Yes, it was `take your breath away’ cold at first, but after 15 minutes, I started sweating with all my layers. It feels invigorating.

  94. We still had snow from previous storms. Our yard faces south so didn’t have as much as the yards across the street. They had 100% cover before this storm.

    1. You’re right, Vicki. I do notice a difference in the suburbs. The city loses its cover faster.

      It’s nice to see the Charles river frozen. That will likely remain frozen for a while. 36 hours of thaw will soften things up and poke holes in the ice, but not make it go away entirely. Then the arctic blast next week will keep things frozen for a while.

      1. They were skating and ice fishing on the Sudbury when we drove by New Year’s day. They were pretty far out which makes me nervous but it’s the first time in a while we have seen that this early if I’m not mistaken.

  95. Awful pics of that fire in North Attleboro you were talking about earlier, North. Both a shame for all who had an interest in the building and worrisome for any firefighters trying to fight it.

    1. Vicki, i went to high school with one of the co-owners of the salon on the first floor. She’s devastated. Its also the same building i shopped for penny candy when i was a kid. Only place around that still had true penny candy.

      1. How very sad. And in this economy at this time of year, it is a true disaster

        We have a great penny candy store but it costs far more than a penny.

  96. Hi everyone–we had plenty of snow in Milton, and now I’m looking for a personalized weather forecast. My son has an interview in Worcester on Monday morning; is it likely that he’ll be dealing with ice Monday AM? I’m thinking he should stay in a hotel Sunday night.

  97. In NYC. About 6″ here in Lower Manhattan. At 7am roads had been plowed and sidewalks cleared. Amazing efficiency! I think they are practicing for the Super Bowl. So windy here!

    For the 2nd time in year the model suite tended to underestimate QPF potential in some areas with an anomalously elongated precip shield extending far from a low center. Although both set ups were synpotically different. Yet they continue show bias to over forecasting precip on traditional benchmark and inside runner single lows. Something for us all to keep in mind going forward.

    I see the 11-14 that I put out 36 hours verified ok. Glad I had that all the way down through the Cape. Though much more came in the daytime hours in some areas than I thought. I mentioned as TK did as early as 60 hours the potential area of enhancement north of the Boston, no way I would have forseen a narrow strip of 20-24 plus. I was thinking maybe 16-18. Boston at 15″ although I did see the snow making area of JP got up to 18″. I was 8-11 out through Worcester and that seemed to do ok. Was overforecast in Western MA and CT. I was a general 6-9 in those areas and seemed more like a 4-7 storm in most areas there. My wife said we only got 4.5″ in Amherst. So not a perfect forecast but overall I will take it as ok and learn from it and apply lessons to the next one.

    If you get a chance look at the NAM and GFS MOS temps for Orange MA for tomorrow morning. NAM is -25! I have never seen a modeled cross-section temp like that in Massachusetts. Usually have to extract that type of temp potential from dew point projections and other climate factors. Snow fascinates you all I know, but I am seriously giddy with anticipation to see how cold it gets in the CT River Valley tonight.

  98. What does COCORAHS OBSERVER stand for? The reason I ask is because the NWS snow totals for Brighton, taken by a COCORAHS OBSERVER were definitely lower than what I received at my house in Brighton.

  99. Some last comments on Snow.

    1. Bleepity bleep bleepin plow driver!! I cleared it all out, but since they didn’t
    plow the street, at 2:30PM, they decide to make 5 passes and pile it all up
    on my side of the street on my sidewalk!!!)(@#(*(!@*#(!*#*)
    All cleared now. Car ready to go, not that I’m going anywhere. too darn cold.

    2. Shoveling this snow, it was very compact. NOT fluffy at all.
    One of the NWS folks at grey Me called it baking soda or baking powder snow, with
    such fine flakes, they are close together and not much room for air. Shoveling
    this stuff was almost as bad as shoveling the wet stuff.

    3. Let the temperature FREE FALL Begin. AS JMA says, HOW LOW WILL IT GO!!
    I for one, at least want the Boston low temperature record broken. After high of 15.4 here, the free fall has stated. Down to 13.8 as it begins it’s CRASH.

    1. One last thing.

      It was a bitter disappointment to see the wind back to North Early and Shut
      off the ocean enhancement.

  100. Hi all!

    It may take me a little while to get caught up. Very busy work days this week and many shoveling passes. Not to mention other post-holiday events going on at home. No rest for the weary?

    A couple quick things…

    Deb: Doesn’t look like ice will be a problem for Worcester, but I’ll re-evaluate that in a while.

    I worked with the Massachusetts State Climatologist for years, and he always said reports were always most suspect in powder/drift type storms, not because people would fudge data, but because measuring them is very difficult. He knew who the “snow bunnies” or number-jacker-uppers were. πŸ™‚

  101. I thought everyone on the blog here did a great job with the last storm predicting it, thanks for all the important info πŸ™‚

  102. Even though it appears from Sunday am to Mon afternoon it will be above freezing with rain and about 48 degrees Mon, I don’t think this will be enough to melt all of the snow, especially where 12+ inches fell.

    1. I think most of it will go POOF because of the low water content, and not much of a melt-freeze prior to that. We’ll see. There should be some left and whatever is, freezes SOLID Monday night when it drops to the single numbers after being near 50.

  103. Down to 11.3

    It’s falling so fast, I can actually see the digits changing on the digital
    display.

      1. 4Pm Logan obs:
        13 with dew point -3

        In the old days we’d predict the low by the dew point.

        So Logan “could” go to -3?????

  104. I will update the blog soon as I get a few things caught up in-house.

    PREVIEW:

    Coldest night in several years tonight.

    Frigid start Saturday but once it gets back toward 20 some people will think it’s mild. It’s all relative.

    Clouding over Sunday, rain event Sunday night and EARLY Monday (it will move faster than modeled). Storm travels west of the Hudson River. If we bust into the true warm sector, and I think we will, 50+ Monday morning very likely.

    Giant temperature drop late Monday. May fall 40 or more degrees in several hours.

    Doesn’t get out of the teens Tuesday and we may be in for a whole lot of snow squalls in bands, making it all the way from the Great Lakes. Something to watch.

    Bright cold dry Wednesday.

    Clouds over Thursday, snow at night, ending early Friday (may need some snow removal for that one but too early to say how much snow – obviously).

  105. If I read everything correctly, Logan’s total qpf was exactly 0.5 inches.
    With 15.1 inches of snow. Well shiver me timbers, I do believe that is a ratio
    of 30:1.

    Am I mistaken? Tom your good on these things???? TK?

    Thanks

    1. That is right, but some sheltered areas may go to -10 or lower. I can see a -20 in a few deep valleys where the wind drops off earlier.

  106. Anyone see the NAM today? It looks like it wants to develop a weak secondary low near the coast later monday bringing snow to the area..Does anyone think this is possible or am I just flat out wrong…

    1. I think the entire thing is whipping away at light-speed Monday afternoon so any secondary wave would be taken along with it all and never really get going.

  107. TK – Thanks for the brief outlook prior to your next blog. The TV mets are advertising a FLASH FREEZE for Monday afternoon…what timeframe? early? mid? late???

    1. Mid to late afternoon. With luck, we have enough of a melt on Sunday to get rid of any residual snow on paved surfaces. But if any standing water is left, it freezes fast by Monday evening, IMO.

    1. Next year, no matter what, I’m going with >60 inches without any reasoning. I’m tired of being eliminated from the snowfall contest so early every winter. πŸ™‚

  108. Tk,

    Do you have confirmed snow ratios across the area?

    If my calculations are correct, Logan came in with 30:1 for the entire event. IS that
    possible?

    SREF did predict ratios going really high.

    Thanks

    1. Best I can tell, 30:1 from Logan north and west during the most frigid part of the storm, 10:1 for a while Marshfield southward along the coast (even some rain mixed in), but these areas went to 15:1 later.

      1. Patriot ledger says significant flooding. Scituate harbor area and hum and brant rock. I don’t know if they play up the story.

        1. Vicki, I saw your post.

          Made me think to check out WATD in Marshfield.

          Sure enough, they have 5 photos of flooding. I just shared tham on Facebook.

          1. Thanks Tom. I saw them. If I like them will people who are my friends be able to see them. I haven’t figured how that works yet. Tx

  109. As for QPF down here, we were in the 26-30F range a majority of the storm, received about 15 inches. I’d have to guess we got .7 to .75 melted.

    I’d seen some snowfalls in Lowell that would be deep, take a step onto it and it would mush down to 2 inches.

    The snow is not wet, but it has a little more solidity to it than just complete fluff too.

    Was a beautiful sunset about 15 minutes ago, was very nice looking close to this storm.

    1. The top layer of my snow is pretty solid thanks to the constant wind blowing over it, may save it from the Sunday night-Monday mini thaw. I agree with your idea of a true thaw pretty soon, showing up on most long range models. So much harder to keep a snow pack down here versus up at LSC.

      1. I agree. The snow isn’t as “fluffy” as one would expect. I haven’t tried but my bet is a snowball could be made with enough packing.

        1. It definitely made some parts of my driveway a little harder to shovel. You’ll be able to make snow balls on Sunday πŸ™‚

  110. Took me most of day just to do driveway by hand. Heading out now to do the back deck than I’m done. I’d leave it but the double doors are being replaced any day now. Very impressive snow fall. I can’t feel my feet,lol.

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