Swing Time

208 Comments

5:15PM

The storm’s over, and some people are still digging out, especially in snow band areas of Essex County MA, the clear snow jackpot area. Other than these very high amounts, the snow forecast worked out pretty much as expected.

Looking ahead, first to the coldest night in a long while here as pure Arctic air comes across the region, aided by a new snow cover. Perfect conditions for a night of many below zero readings. If you have pipes prone to freezing, please take precautions tonight, if possible, to prevent this.

It stays very cold into Saturday but a temperature recovery above 20 during the day, maybe even to 30 in some areas, will make it feel much nicer than the night previous. Fair weather is expected.

Our pattern of quick changing weather continues Sunday as clouds roll in ahead of the next storm system. This one is expected to travel west of New England and drag warm air up from the south, producing rain here Sunday night and early Monday. But behind this storm awaits a fresh batch of Arctic air. An extremely sharp temperature drop is possible during Monday afternoon and night, with the potential for a flash freeze of rain-soaked areas. More on this later…

The core of Arctic air will move in on Tuesday, and this may be accompanied by snow showers and possible snow squalls. What is a certainty is gusty winds and air temperatures staying in the teens during the day.

High pressure ridges just south of the region Wednesday, and after a frigid start it will attempt to moderate a little bit during the day. The weather will be dry and bright.

The next event looks like a wave of low pressure bringing a chance of snow late Thursday to early Friday. Too early to gauge the magnitude of this potential snow maker.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Clear. Extreme cold. Lows -20 to -10 rural areas, -10 to 0 elsewhere. Wind NW to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing late. Wind chill values to around or below -20 at times.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 20s. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Temperatures steady in the 20s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Late day highs reach the 40s. Wind SW to S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Early rain, then sun/clouds with a late day snow flurry possible. Temperatures fall from near 50 to near 20.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers and snow squalls. Lows 0-10. Highs 10-20.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Lows -10 to 0. Highs 20-30.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Lows 10-20. Highs 25-35.

FRIDAY: Chance of snow early followed by clearing. Lows 15-25. Highs 25-35.

208 thoughts on “Swing Time”

  3. I mentioned this in the previous blog, but I will repeat again here that according to Barry, this recent storm (15.1″) is ranked #5 for Boston for January.

    I didn’t get a chance to write down the exact dates and amounts BUT I was able to remember the years of the top four and those winters were ALL well above normal including the record 107.6″ in 1995-96. Could this 2013-14 winter end up being a bonanza for snowfall as well? We will see. 😉

  4. Many thanks TK.

    Your thoughts on whether or not Logan Breaks the loe temperature reading
    for either today or tomorrow?

  5. Thanks TK–I read your answer about Worcester on the other blog–I told my son to just stay overnight from Sun to Mon–it turns out there’s some kind of dinner on Sunday night so he’d be crazy to drive back and forth anyway.

  7. Thanks TK !

    A warming thought for tomorrow morning.

    Those first few rays of sunlight after sunrise will be when earth is closest to the sun (at Perihelion), a mere 91,400,000 miles away.

    For camparison, aphelion, usually around July 4, is at a distance of 94,500,000 miles.

  8. Anyone who has not made their bold weather predictions for 2014 I would love to read them and then the end of the year look back and see if any of them happened.

    1. Hi JJ. Have I missed your posts or have you been missing? I’ve been in and out so missed some other posts too. All is ok there after the storm?

      1. Vicki,

        In addition to my hot Summer forecast with 20+ days over 90 at Logan, you can add a very active tropical season with and least one hit for us. Can’t say if it would be a hurricane or Tropical storm, but one hit.

        Thanks

  9. Regarding the chatter here yesterday regarding the NWS decision not to include Boston in the Blizzard Warning, I mentioned that the reason was perhaps that Boston Harbor was tucked in relative to the rest of the MA coastline based on geography and sure enough, my thoughts were confirmed by Harvey on air on last night’s 11:00 broadcast. Harvey stated that the harbor itself was protected (relatively speaking) from the stronger ocean winds based on its location from the open waters.

    I majored in Geography in college and one of my courses was “New England Geography” and NE climate was very much part of the course. The professor was a bit of a weather geek as well. 😉

    1. Good Call Philip. I was thinking about what you posted last night.

      I NEVER witnessed ANY blizzard conditions here during any of the
      storm I watched. A good storm? Yes. An all out Blizzard. NOPE.
      I honestly thought it would be blizzard conditions here. I was wrong. 😀

      Nice Job NWS Taunton Office. They got that call correct.

  10. I didn’t do it on the previous blog, so here it is – Predictions for 2014!

    We’ll have an ocean-enhanced snow event on January 2 with astoundingly cold temperatures coming into Boston and over 20 inches of snow in parts of Essex County. Oh wait, that already happened…

    One storm before the end of the winter gives North Attleboro MA more snow than any other town in the state.

    JUST KIDDING .. HAR HAR HAR… Ok now onto the real National Enquirer style prognostications…

    *Cold and drier than normal overall, but the same general pattern continuing for the winter remaining.

    *Spring starts as one of the coldest on record but ends with some record heat. Dry, increasing drought.

    *Final measurable snow: March 20.

    *Final flakes of snow: April 4.

    *Hot & dry June & July. Drought worsens.

    *Tropical rains break the drought in August. Humidity very persistent, still hot.

    *Hurricane season: Less than average amount of storms. If a New England hit happens, it would be with the August pattern.

    *Major turn-around in September to chilly & dry.

    *October is warm & wet with intermittent cold/dry shots of air.

    *November starts warm and wet, ends cold & dry.

    *First snowflakes: November 11.

    *First measurable snow: November 25.

    *December is seasonable to cold. Early snow cover gets put down but no major snowstorms.

  11. To all, if your car is parked outdoors then you might want to unlock the driver’s door if it is safe to do so. Moisture from the air and melted snow will freeze hard and unlocking your car door in the am can be an interesting challenge. Yes, even automatic locks may not work.

    1. Thanks longshot. I can’t believe it has been so many decades that we have had to do that not only did I forget but my kids have never heard of if. They are all giving me pushback. Silly folks that they are.

    1. MIN TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO FOR ALL SNE AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH READINGS AS COLD AS 20-25 BELOW ZERO IN PORTIONS OF NW MA AND SW NH. EVEN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST TEMPS WILL DROP TO NEAR ZERO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

  14. I will edit my post above and add in something about hurricanes and a few other things…

    2. TK if u post the entire thing again or even just add I am less apt to miss it. Either that or just tell me time. I don’t usually scroll that far up and I’ve copied it already

  15. Tk what do you mean by the pattern continuing. Does that mean snow as well. So what we have been like three weeks now or four with a snow event.

    2. If this continues my 80 inches might be in reach. My research told me cold and snowy. My two biggest reasons were Syberia snow in October and I was banking on a week El Niño but that did not happen.

  16. I haven’t looked at the CPC on a regular basis in awhile but today’s 6-10/8-14 day outlook has most of the CONUS (including most of Alaska) with well above normal temps and precipitation. Maybe I am totally off base, but somehow it doesn’t make sense to me given the time of year and the way things have been lately.

      1. It may be right. Pattern reorganization may push the cold back to the north for a little while.

        1. Tk what happened to the warm winter that met after met predicted for this winter? Dry pattern? I’m confused because say since that big rain storm the day before thanksgiving its just been one storm after the other since than am I correct. And if I’m reading above right you seem to think this pattern will continue is that correct. So how can one call this a dry pattern. Just curious.

  17. The dewpoints are falling across the region.

    I think Logan’s temp at 7F, but dewpoint now down to -14F !!!!

      1. Just a thought…could it be the warm airmass scheduled for us on Sunday/Monday starting to arrive already at upper levels?

  20. Well I consider myself in good company since I am also out of the snowfall contest. Hey Tom….I will meet you at the scary Ming Dynasty and we’ll have a main tai to make us feel better. 🙂

  21. It’s not good in my opinion, it was the place years ago as it was good food but has gone down hill. I go to psangs in Hanover across from starland, awesome food.

    1. Oh we never eat at the Ming…just drinks. :-). However I do know the food was better before the new owners took over.

      1. Sounds like a definite plan. Maybe it can happen real (as my grandaughter says) if we get there for the month of April. For SS folks and everybody 🙂

        1. Yes, next time you guys come down to South shore for a stay, we should find a way for a south shore blogger gathering.

  23. Temps r gonna go from Sat @6am of -5 or so, to 40 degrees by 1pm, that’s a 45 degrees difference in 7 hrs!!!!!

      1. I think if you insert the word Sunday in there somewhere and change your hrs to around 30 hrs, your all set, and you are correct, that will be a big temp change over a small amt of time.

  24. 6F at Logan at 8pm …..

    Since November 24th, there have been 16 days at Logan out of 41 that have had high temps of 35F or lower. Thats about 40 percent of the time. Its been a cold 6 or 7 weeks !!

    1. In contrast, during Nov 2o11 thru Jan 2012, the winter that never showed ….

      there were 3 days in that same 41 day period.

      1. I dont want to see any pipes broken down there or anyone injured on slippery roads. I know our friends in the south have less experience dealing with the ice/cold than us.

        With that said, 🙂 , isnt it just a shame that its cold down there too ?

  26. Hi Vicki… I posted earlier this morning on the previous blog. I only got 5.5 inches here in Watertown, CT. The mets here got this one right going for a general 5-10 inches. Now getting ready for a night with below zero air temperatures and two records low likely to be set on the shoreline and for inland CT>

    1. Hi JJ. Thanks and I did miss your post. Glad all is ok and seems you are right that the forecast for your area was correct. We got about 8 here. No blockbuster but its snow and its beautiful. Stay warm. We are dripping faucets and have not done that in a very long while

  28. I have been hearing loud noises when I was outside and just heard it again. Sounds like gunshots, but the most recent one sounded like someone tossed a very large rock at my house. Anyone else experiencing this? Maybe it’s the wood contracting due to the cold?

    2. Frost quake? Just heard a story about them in VT and Canada the other day on NECN. Strange but true-ground freezes quickly and hard, causing ground to freeze and surrounding earth to “break”, causing loud popping and booming noises. Don’t know if our areas are able to actually get those or not…

  36. I found these stats regarding the top January snowstorms for Boston (Logan) on the WBZ blog:

    1. 1/22/2005 = 22.5″
    2. 1/20/1978 = 21.4″
    3. 1/7/1996 = 18.2″
    4. 1/6/1994 = 16.2″
    5. 1/3/2014 = 15.1″ **
    6. 1/28/1897 = 14.7″

    1. Idk why, but it didn’t feel like a top 5 snowstorm, for my area I don’t think it was even a top 10 snow event, anyways my New Years resolution is to be nicer, wish me luck, have a good night all 🙂

  39. It feels a bit like a freezer outside. I like it. Gosh, I dream of this stuff on 95 degree days in July. The air is so clean. I know this is perception, and reality is such that pollution is everywhere. But on winter days like these, the air doesn’t seem polluted. Insects are dead (sorry if I offended anyone, I’m not a fan) or dormant somewhere. And the area where I work (edge of Chinatown) doesn’t smell like fried food or rotting garbage. On summer days, it can be brutally smelly.

    Could be more snow on the way next week. Wouldn’t surprise me. First as the arctic front moves through. Looking at the models, the front looks to be more or less vertical (north-south) and fast-moving. A little like a thunderstorm event in summer, as the cold air drives out the warm. Berkshires could get half of foot of snow. I’m also thinking those who missed out yesterday (e.g., JJ) will get several inches of snow from the vigorous front. Then later on Thursday into Friday, a more typical SNE snow/mix/rain event with much more water-laden snow and marginal temperatures. to support accumulation.

    If my math is correct, we’ve had the equivalent of close to 3 inches of liquid precipitation in the past 8 or 9 days, with at least 1.5 more expected the coming 5 or 6 days. Certainly making a dent in our precipitation deficit. I also think December was above average in terms of precipitation.

  40. ” 2014 prediction”
    Two more big snow events with double digit snowfall and several smaller scale events that brings the snow to way above average for snowfall. No snow in march this year after a big miss brings a big rain along the eastern coast. Early and nice spring with blooms coming early and a very warm marathon Monday. Wet first half of may and than we get into a dry pattern that will run throughout the summer. Hot and dry summer with 3 heat waves and most days running in the 80s. 16 90 degree days. First heat wave Memorial Day weekend. Above average temps for the fall and really nice weather. No snow till the beginning of January 2015 and that will be below average for snow. All a guess.

      1. I like your chutzpah to project out to the winter of 2014/2015, along with several falsifiable predictions (e.g., 16 days of plus 90). Most, myself included, go with vague or wishy-washy predictions, like “it’ll be a hot summer,” or “we’ll have several snowstorms this winter.”

        1. Josh it’s all a guess. This blog has a yearly prediction that we all participate in this time of year. It’s for fun.

    1. Somewhat snowy too, though not way above, we’ve gotten 17.7 here for season, that’s only about 5 or 6 inches above average to date

  45. pattern seems to be cold and dry. with snow storm then rain storm few days later has happened 2 times now.

      1. what i mean is that when its dry out and with not storms its cold out and then we get a storm that has snow followed by a rain storm then its back to cold and dry

        also the last storm did almost nothing as in the way of water content. i think it was like .5 or something like that.

  47. There saying Sundays football game in Green Bay will be the coldest football gave ever played according to ch5.

  52. Just a guess from what I see, but I believe the overnight temperature tonight might be higher than our daytime temps today.

  57. Marshfield airport ob has hovered btwn 0 and 1F since midnight.

    Cams on Cape Cod Bay show an ice slush all the way out to the low tide mark, perhaps a 1/4 mile out.

      1. I remember a few years back the water froze around the bridge in Humarock. Pushed up all of the posts along the docks. I think you are right that the ocean water that flooded yesterday is now a frozen mess.

  59. Interesting …..

    The inside runner does not really deepen until it passes us.

    Implication ….

    It will moderate, coastal Massachusetts will get into the 40s Sunday Night and Monday. It will get above freezing, 40ish inland. The snow will melt a decent amount, but I think the warm surge of 50s for a few hrs may have gobe by the boards.

    Getting into this time of year, even South Coastal water temps are down in the 40s, the snow pack …… I think there needs to be an intense storm passing to our west, with a strong southerly wind, to give a true warm sector a chance to blast into a good part of Southern New England and I dont think that happens.

  60. The GFS is signaling the arctic air to reload in Canada and return to New England about 8-10 days from now. I’m not sure we’ve seen the coldest temps this particular winter will have to offer.

  61. My temp says we got down to -5.2, BUT the weather channel app says we r -11, did say -13, I don’t believe it, maybe north or am can confirm there low temps?

  63. It got cold last night, yes, but January 2004 (also January 2003) was more consistently cold and, in my my view, more impressive. Parts of Massachusetts Bay and Nantucket Sound froze over for a relatively long period of time. For at least a month you could walk across the Charles, or even drive across it. There was little or no let-up in the cold for several weeks. Also, in terms of consistency, the chain of snowstorms we had in 2011 was really impressive. In some ways more impressive than Nemo or any single major event. Boston had a snowpack in 2011 that was truly spectacular for a major urban center. I’ve never seen anything like it. And there were no real thaws. The snow just kept coming for a 4-6 week period.

    2. The winter of 2011 was an unbelievable experience. I remember that after the snow melted, it felt like the world had more space.

  64. I had -7 when i got up at 7:30. Im guessing it may have been a degree or 2 colder closer to dawn but i cant verify that

      1. I remember living in Norwood in the early 70s and watching the morning forecast with Don Kent (on the early news before the Today show came on). I was a cool early April morning and he had three observations from Norwood. One up by the high school which was maybe 150-200 ft above the next observation point which was South Norwood (near where I lived..we called it the Flats) and then the third observation came from the airport tucked in valley probably a little below the South Norwood location in terms of elevation. The HS ob was 35, South Norwood was 30 and airport was 25. That memory of the temp difference in such a short span of distance has always stuck with me.

          1. sorry for the late reply…busy all weekend…yeah I think you are right about that. A lot of Norwood right around the Route 1 area is close to sea level.

  66. I’m about to travel down to Avon MA for a little while today. I love driving over a distance just after a variable snowstorm to see the changes in amounts from place to place.

    I’ll catch you all late this afternoon when I will update again. 🙂

  71. I believe i saw a report last night the ocean off boston has dipped below 40? This may play a crucial role in future storms

    1. Quincy Bay has a thin sheet of ice on it today, and blobs of snow and ice floating in the water. Now that’s a shallow body of water, but it must be seriously cold…

  73. This winter thus far has been far from normal. Even in a less than ideal pattern for east coast snow, teleconnection wise, boston has received above average snow so far. Each storm has been very variable from area to area however. Most storms produce variable snow amounts due to a varying of factors but this year it seems that variability has been magnified. What we havent had yet is that classic snowstorm where we get a foot plus across a wide area with only variation being in the usual spots down toward the cape and islands.

    1. Agree ace and were only a few weeks into winter if that. I think this winter will be one talked about when all is said in done and the topic will be the cold and snowy winter.

  74. can someone post the 2013 predictions so i can see how close i was 🙂

    year 2014 predictions.
    january. Periods of cold, average snowfall,
    Febuary. seasonal temperatures with near average snowfall.
    march. cold near normal snowfall.
    april: cool and wet.
    may: seasonal temperatures, wet
    june. Hot above normal temperatures below normal rainfall.
    july. hot above normal temperatures below normal rainfall.
    august. Humid, normal temperatures, tropical
    september. humid above normal temperatures, normal precipitation
    october. dry and cool
    novemember. wet and seasonal
    december dry and seasonal.
    expect a few name storms to hit the coastal US. expect a near normal to below normal snowfall
    periods of below normal temperatures through april.
    periods of above normal temperatures june through july and then again in septemember. Exptect a wet spring
    expect a cool and crisp fall.

  76. 12z GFS is showing a gigantic rain storm at the end of the period, of course it’s a week away, but we shall see

    1. 00z GFS shows nothing except cold & dry weather mid to late forecast period. I don’t think the 12z had the right handle. 00z has the right idea, but may be pushing it too fast.

    2. I hope that’s right. We just shoveled a foot of snow off relatives deck to avoid it becoming saturated and risking the deck’s integrity.

  80. what a crazy colts game. that was a great game to watch. who did you all want to win that game. I know i want the chargers to win tomorrow over the bengals. how about you guys

      1. now all we need now are the bengals to loose so we don’t need to face them and we get the colts who are pass happy.. bengals run the ball and have a much better defense as well. chargers though would need a miracle to beat denver or the bengals

  83. Well the temp is over 20 degrees warmer than at the same time yesterday. That’s the good news. But a lot of central MA is under a Freezing Rain Advisory.

    For Monday, 50 degrees??

  86. Already 27.4 degrees at 7:30 am, on our way to the low 40’s today, nice day compared to the last few

  87. A little more sun today than previously forecast.
    LESS rain with the coming system.
    Easily hits 50 in many areas Monday morning, but not for long.
    Big cold coming after that for Tuesday. Snow squalls?

    Blog updated!

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