DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 16-20)
The final full five days of astronomical spring span this forecast period, and we have some nice weather much of the time, with one interruption. We start with fair weather today as high pressure slides well south of us, across the Mid Atlantic Coast, while a quasi-stationary low pressure area sits in Atlantic Canada. After a cool start, it will warm to seasonable levels, but the coast ends up coolest this afternoon as a weakening westerly wind flow allows sea breezes to eventually develop – but a very nice day overall! Decorative cirrus cloud patches are visible in the northwestern and northern sky to start the day today, but in general we’ll see unlimited sunshine. More cloud cover will be present on Wednesday as a disturbance closes in from the west. This may trigger a shower or thunderstorm in western New England later in the day but I suspect none of that activity will survive to reach the WHW forecast area. However, clouds will thicken up ahead of a warm front Wednesday night with rain chances increasing overnight. Low pressure crossing the Great Lakes and heading for the St. Lawrence Valley will pull that front and its attendant rainfall through the region into Thursday morning before we emerge into the low’s warm sector. This is when we’ll see a spike in humidity and then have to watch for showers and thunderstorms as the low’s cold front approaches and passes through the region. Thursday’s shower and storm potential does have to be watched as there will be some ingredients for severe storms in place. However, this no longer appears as if it will be an optimal set-up for severe storms due to the lack of sunshine in the warm sector and also the best instability remaining to the west and south of the WHW forecast area. It still bears watching, however. Whatever showers and storms do occur will move out that evening as the cold front moves through and offshore. This sets up dry, breezy, but pleasant weather for late this week with a west to northwest air flow via Canada and the Great Lakes.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing to under 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes this afternoon.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 76-83, coolest South Coast. Dew point rises toward 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers arrive overnight west to east. Fog patches form pre-dawn. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with early showers likely, then variably cloudy with potential showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 76-83. Dew point rises to near 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: An early shower or thunderstorm toward Cape Cod otherwise clearing. Fog patches evening. Lows 56-63. Dew point falls to 50s. Wind SW shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 76-83. Dew point near 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: A few clouds, then clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point near 50. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 21-25)
Fair weather continues to finish the weekend as we welcome summer on June 21 (solstice 4:24 a.m. EDT). Wet weather potentials June 22 & 24 with fair weather June 23 & 25. No significant heat in sight.
DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 26-30)
Home stretch of June expected to feature a west northwest flow / progressive pattern with a couple shower and t-storm chances from passing disturbances, otherwise mostly fair weather and variable but mostly fairly close to normal temperatures.
Thanks TK !
Wordle: 5
Very comfortable start to the day.
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/KBRO_loop.gif?refreshed=1781608967355
Area of disturbed weather that I think, was once, a tropical depression/maybe even a weak tropical storm south of Mexico.
It’s remnants have worked their way north and should provide some rains over the deep south the next few days.
Excellent Tom.
Thank you, TK. GREAT sleeping night with a low of 52
57/51
Do I notice a bit of backing off of severe weather Thursday??
Yes, I think so !
Not enough heating ahead of the cold front to maximize instability. As TK writes above, that will probably be found further south and west of us.
SPC agrees ….
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.png
Great.
Wordle 4
Awesome 4, Vicki !
Ni e 4
Well done!
Thank you all!!
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_0600_torn.png
Tomorrow (Wednesday) may have some concerns south of Chicago.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.png
Thanks TK.
Good morni g and thank you TK
64 up from 60
Ocean: 61
Wordle: I give up! A big fat 6 as I was hopelessly lost on this word which was a very reasonable word to be sure. Oh well, at leasr I got it.
Not surprised the back off on severe for Thursday. We shall see how it plays out. Let’s hope we at least get some rain out of it.
Thank you, TK.
RIP Eddie Andelman.
Thank you TK!
Wordle: Happy to be jumping on the caboose with JPD. Too many choices with the letters I had in the right spots on the earlier guesses.
Welcome aboard. It was very lonely for awhile there. 🙂
Well done. It is not an easy word. I ended up putting it aside in the wee hours and left till this am
Wordle in 5.
It was an interesting looking game with no yellows – no spoilers.
https://ibb.co/gZ5WbVk8
Same, 5, Sea of Green.
Nice 5s.
Great to you both. I’m seeing the sea of green from a number of FB friends too.
Walked the shore and it was perfect out there.
Currently 65F.
My over / under today is 75F.
Thanks, TK!
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/weekly/images/wk1.wk2_latest.NAsfcT.png
CFS week 1 and week 2 weeklies certainly on top of these largely, extremely comfortable temps and humidities the next 2 weeks.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.png
CFS week 3 and 4 weeklies certainly do NOT show well above avg temps, but perhaps a change to average temps which by this time period is 78-82F in southern New England.
Looking like post July 4th before any sustained heat and thats just because the next 3-4 weeks look devoid of any. That doesn’t mean its coming then, either.
Wouldn’t be out of the question that the first 14 days of June had the warmest temp departures, relative to average that we experience all summer.
Great post…Your last paragraph especially
Thanks TK
Looking at the 12Z guidance that has come out so far, I am not very impressed by the set up Thursday. We shall see
I scared the storms away with my rant 🙂 🙂 😉
Beautiful morning. Brilliant blue sky fitted with puffy white clouds.
68/52
71/49 here. I put on a short sleeve polo, but I was so cold, I had to throw on a sweatshirt. Still cold even now 3 hours later. 🙂
It’s hard sometimes to adjust to the temp swings.
Thanks TK.
Agree with your take on Thursday. The instability does not look to be there for big problems. Looks more like a “gusty showers” type of deal as the front moves through. But with so much “spin” in the atmosphere that day, definitely still worth keeping an eye on.
Much different story in the Midwest tomorrow. That has really, really bad day written all over it. If you ever wanna look at the synoptic ingredients and some model soundings for a true tornado outbreak environment, check out the progs for IL/IN and vicinity tomorrow.
Many thanks WxWatcher. Will always be checking, but at this time not too worried about Thursday.
Thank you, WXW