Tuesday June 16 2026 Forecast (7:24AM)

53 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 16-20)

The final full five days of astronomical spring span this forecast period, and we have some nice weather much of the time, with one interruption. We start with fair weather today as high pressure slides well south of us, across the Mid Atlantic Coast, while a quasi-stationary low pressure area sits in Atlantic Canada. After a cool start, it will warm to seasonable levels, but the coast ends up coolest this afternoon as a weakening westerly wind flow allows sea breezes to eventually develop – but a very nice day overall! Decorative cirrus cloud patches are visible in the northwestern and northern sky to start the day today, but in general we’ll see unlimited sunshine. More cloud cover will be present on Wednesday as a disturbance closes in from the west. This may trigger a shower or thunderstorm in western New England later in the day but I suspect none of that activity will survive to reach the WHW forecast area. However, clouds will thicken up ahead of a warm front Wednesday night with rain chances increasing overnight. Low pressure crossing the Great Lakes and heading for the St. Lawrence Valley will pull that front and its attendant rainfall through the region into Thursday morning before we emerge into the low’s warm sector. This is when we’ll see a spike in humidity and then have to watch for showers and thunderstorms as the low’s cold front approaches and passes through the region. Thursday’s shower and storm potential does have to be watched as there will be some ingredients for severe storms in place. However, this no longer appears as if it will be an optimal set-up for severe storms due to the lack of sunshine in the warm sector and also the best instability remaining to the west and south of the WHW forecast area. It still bears watching, however. Whatever showers and storms do occur will move out that evening as the cold front moves through and offshore. This sets up dry, breezy, but pleasant weather for late this week with a west to northwest air flow via Canada and the Great Lakes.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing to under 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes this afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 76-83, coolest South Coast. Dew point rises toward 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers arrive overnight west to east. Fog patches form pre-dawn. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with early showers likely, then variably cloudy with potential showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 76-83. Dew point rises to near 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: An early shower or thunderstorm toward Cape Cod otherwise clearing. Fog patches evening. Lows 56-63. Dew point falls to 50s. Wind SW shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 76-83. Dew point near 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A few clouds, then clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point near 50. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 21-25)

Fair weather continues to finish the weekend as we welcome summer on June 21 (solstice 4:24 a.m. EDT). Wet weather potentials June 22 & 24 with fair weather June 23 & 25. No significant heat in sight.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 26-30)

Home stretch of June expected to feature a west northwest flow / progressive pattern with a couple shower and t-storm chances from passing disturbances, otherwise mostly fair weather and variable but mostly fairly close to normal temperatures.

53 thoughts on “Tuesday June 16 2026 Forecast (7:24AM)”

  2. Thank you, TK. GREAT sleeping night with a low of 52

    57/51

    Do I notice a bit of backing off of severe weather Thursday??

  6. Good morni g and thank you TK

    64 up from 60

    Ocean: 61

    Wordle: I give up! A big fat 6 as I was hopelessly lost on this word which was a very reasonable word to be sure. Oh well, at leasr I got it.

    Not surprised the back off on severe for Thursday. We shall see how it plays out. Let’s hope we at least get some rain out of it.

  8. Thank you TK!

    Wordle: Happy to be jumping on the caboose with JPD. Too many choices with the letters I had in the right spots on the earlier guesses.

    2. Well done. It is not an easy word. I ended up putting it aside in the wee hours and left till this am

  10. Walked the shore and it was perfect out there.

    Currently 65F.

    My over / under today is 75F.

  12. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/weekly/images/wk1.wk2_latest.NAsfcT.png

    CFS week 1 and week 2 weeklies certainly on top of these largely, extremely comfortable temps and humidities the next 2 weeks.

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.png

    CFS week 3 and 4 weeklies certainly do NOT show well above avg temps, but perhaps a change to average temps which by this time period is 78-82F in southern New England.

    Looking like post July 4th before any sustained heat and thats just because the next 3-4 weeks look devoid of any. That doesn’t mean its coming then, either.

    Wouldn’t be out of the question that the first 14 days of June had the warmest temp departures, relative to average that we experience all summer.

  14. Looking at the 12Z guidance that has come out so far, I am not very impressed by the set up Thursday. We shall see

  16. 71/49 here. I put on a short sleeve polo, but I was so cold, I had to throw on a sweatshirt. Still cold even now 3 hours later. 🙂

  17. Thanks TK.

    Agree with your take on Thursday. The instability does not look to be there for big problems. Looks more like a “gusty showers” type of deal as the front moves through. But with so much “spin” in the atmosphere that day, definitely still worth keeping an eye on.

    Much different story in the Midwest tomorrow. That has really, really bad day written all over it. If you ever wanna look at the synoptic ingredients and some model soundings for a true tornado outbreak environment, check out the progs for IL/IN and vicinity tomorrow.

    1. Many thanks WxWatcher. Will always be checking, but at this time not too worried about Thursday.

  20. Google headline: “Potentially strongest El Nino officially begins. A record-breaking Pacific weather pattern is emerging, threatening years of chaos.”

    I can’t even begin to tell you how many things are wrong with that headline.

    Isn’t it funny how La Nina, which can also have very significant impacts, is largely ignored, while El Nino is hyped beyond the maximum? Media has twisted the cool phase into sounding like it’s the “calm” phase and everything is “ok” while completely blasting the hype machine on full blast about the warm phase and making it sound like it’s something that is “wrong”.

    The only thing wrong here is how they handle it. A little actual science would really, really help. But I’m outta luck, because that wouldn’t fit the script they are told to follow..

    Anyway, on a more directly relevant note…
    No changes to the current forecast.

    1. He he he

      I ignore the hype. It is so pathetic!! You’d think it was the end of the world.

      1. I largely ignore it myself. However, being who I am, I get a LOT of shares sent to me via private messages with questions attached to them, and I’m often pointing out to the people what the issue with the information is. It’s kind of something I have to do – even though I wish I did not have to.

  21. I heard this morning on ABC’s GMA that sharks of all types are going to be even more prominent in our waters due to El Niño. It seems that sharks love WARM water.

    I guess the movie “Jaws” is coming to real life this upcoming summer on our beaches?

    1. Interesting, since the Atlantic is COOLING.

      See? This is exactly what I mean.

      I’m guessing that whomever wrote that piece didn’t realize that the El Nino warming takes place west of South America in the PACIFIC Ocean. How that’s going to send Jaws to our beaches is a mystery to me.

      1. Maybe land sharks could hitchhike their way from the West Coast to the East Coast.

    2. Sharks along the Atlantic coast could move north due to warmer waters. Sharks tend to follow their food supply. Their food supply … like small fish … will move closer to the shore when the water warms up.

      If El Nino is responsible for bringing more sharks to the coast, then the Pacific coast will be more likely to see a shark increase.

      The problem with the news is that El Nino is responsible for just about everything. As we all certainly know, if the Sox turn their season around, it will be because of El Nino.

      1. Agree. In general the Atlantic has been warming. There’s a cool spot around Greenland…I need to look into that.

        You’re right about food sources. Seals are a big source and they have been moving north.

      2. Seasonal warming brings them closer on an annual basis.

        The Atlantic’s large scale overall trend is cooler in response to a down swing in the AMO. It remains to be seen if this is temporary in the longer term positive, or if we are actually heading toward a genuine negative phase now. It’s been a long time since we’ve been there and the implications are not minor when we do get back there again.

  22. We flirted with 80 BRIEFLY. But in the 70s most of the day with a mid 50 DP. Lovely Lovely day. No AC and Windows open

    1. One of this year’s hurricane names came close. It will be Vicky if we ever get that far.

  23. Got a shot at Arthur in the northwestern Gulf in the next 18 hours. Would be short-lived.

    Season started on June 1. Having the first named storm mid month is quite normal, though the method of development on this one is slightly unconventional.

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