DAYS 1-5 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)
A mini blocking set-up leads to an encounter with an anomalous low pressure area which will give us a significant rain event today and tonight as the low, currently occluding over NY, drifts eastward just south of southern New England initially, sending a band of moderate to heavy rainfall including embedded thunderstorms northeastward across our region today, starting in CT and RI this morning and reaching southern NH this afternoon. Given the tight low pressure area initially, there exists in the lower atmosphere some wind shear that could enable a couple of the individual convective cells to gain some rotation. This set-up is not incapable of producing brief, relatively weak tornadoes. This, if it occurred, would be an isolated instance somewhere in eastern CT, RI, or adjacent south central to southeastern MA. The potential is there enough to mention the possibility of damaging wind gusts, but the greater potential for the region is most definitely heavy rainfall and areas of flooding, although in general the rain will be beneficial for reducing the longer term deficit. As briefly strong as this low pressure area gets, during the end of its maturing process it will drift into southern New England early Thursday but start to weaken steadily. This will keep us cloudy and showery but without the heavy rainfall of today. Obviously, with a general onshore flow from the Atlantic from the east to northeast these days, our temperatures will run cooler than the seasonal averages for late July. Finally, the low pulls away to the east on Friday, and other than the chance of a quick-hitting pop-up shower, we’ll see drier air start to erode the cloud cover with a clearing trend getting underway. High pressure builds into our region for a great weekend to begin the month of August, although as the high slides to the east you may notice an up-tick in the humidity by Sunday.
TODAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers and potential thunderstorms with heavy downpours likely – starting out eastern CT into RI and MA South Coast then lifting north northeast across the region as time goes on. Areas of fog, particularly this morning and then again later in the day favoring eastern coastal locations. Highs 66-73. Dew point 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the coast, and also the slight risk of isolated damaging wind gusts near any of the stronger convective cells embedded in the rain area.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers and drizzle likely. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point around 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Scattered showers. Areas of drizzle and fog. Highs 67-74. Dew point 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming NE.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Becoming partly sunny. A pop-up shower possible. Highs 73-80. Dew point falls under 60. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 56-63. Dew point falls toward 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point rises to 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 80-87. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 3-7)
A more “typical” west to east flow. A frontal system moves through with a shower and t-storm chance on August 3. High pressure builds in behind that with fair weather, but humidity increases later in the week and with a trough approaching from the west we may see a few more shower and t-storms around toward the end of the period. Temperatures more in line for what would be expected in early August.
DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 8-12)
A couple opportunities for showers and t-storms, but overall pattern features more dry than wet time. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.
Thanks TK
Thanks TK! One of the social media hypers describes this a a tropical system?!?! What in the world???
It’s not tropical. It’s cold core. So, that’s incorrect.
Exactly – it’s so irresponsible! Ugh!
Good morning and thank you TK.
71 here
Wordle; disappointing 5
I was really lost for awhile, but it finally came to me.
Nice.
Thanks. I consider it more of a Phew than nice. 🙂 🙂 🙂
Nice 5. I stopped after first two guesses which gave me two letters. I’ll get back to it in a bit.
Rain is approaching. Time to shut some windows.
Thanks TK !
Wordle: fail. Really only had my 6th guess and it wasn’t what they were looking for. Onto tomorrow 🙂
Albany, NY area with 3+ inches overnight.
Sorry Tom. It was a fine word, but depending on starting word one could be sucked into a whirlpool of crap and be lost forever.
Yes, that describes what happened, perfectly 🙂 🙂 🙂
🙂 🙂 🙂
I thought I was being sucked down a whirlpool as well, but while substituting letters, it just hit me like a ton of bricks as the word was revealed to my mind. 🙂 🙂 🙂 Funny how that happens sometimes. You’ll get it tomorrow.
Hey, you had an awesome 3 yesterday!!!!
Good try, Tom. You’re welcome on any car I end up on or running behind the train with me if I don’t get it!
Thanks Vicki and JpDave !
I now have four guesses and no clue
What are those train cars called that two people pump ???
A two-person pump car for railroad tracks is commonly called a handcar or pump trolley. Historically, these classic railway vehicles were used by maintenance workers to transport tools. Today, you can rent and ride modern, electric-assisted versions on recreational rail tours
I think SClarke came up with even another name that was cool, but I can’t remember.
That’s it. Thank you !! And I like SClarkes too
You will kick yourself when you see the word.
With you on the fail…. Had the last 4 for guesses 5 and 6 but still missed it.
Awesome try.
Sorry Tjammer. Tomorrow is another day.
Sorry 🙂
Given the tight low pressure area initially, there exists in the lower atmosphere some wind shear that could enable a couple of the individual convective cells to gain some rotation. This set-up is not incapable of producing brief, relatively weak tornadoes. This, if it occurred, would be an isolated instance somewhere in eastern CT, RI, or adjacent south central to southeastern MA
From TK’s discussion above.
Storm relative mean velocity from College of DuPage
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=OKX-N0S-0-24-100-usa-rad
Nothing cooking at this time
Here is a link so one can loop it
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=OKX-N0S-0-24-100-usa-rad
Sorry that was for NYC
Here is the Taunton radar
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=BOX-N0S-0-24-100-usa-rad
Link
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=BOX-N0S-0-24-100-usa-rad
Thanks !
Thank you TK. 67/67. Low of 66. 0.10” so far here
Thanks TK
I think I have noticed something on Wordle, for me anyway ….
If I uncover consonants or a majority consonants first, I do better than if I uncover vowels first. Weird, but true.
Interesting. I’ve always covered vowels first but lately it isn’t working as well for me
So you may well be onto something. I had two vowels with guess 1. Nada with guess 2. I added a consonant with guess 3 and am lost after guess 4
Good luck with guess 5 and if necessary, guess 6 🙂
Thank you
I had 2 vowels in position after guess 1 and I was lost from there. I was lucky it even came to me.
I am CERTAIN someone will beat a 5. Not sure I remember a 5 ever being the engineer.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G19§or=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KALB&hours=72
Albany, NY International with 5.23” the last 24 hrs and still raining.
https://weather.us/radar-us/massachusetts/reflectivity/KBOX.html#play-0-12-5
In the next 3-5 hrs, if we worried about the western 1/4 of Mass for flash flooding.
They are solidly in it now and can see that yellow band extending northwest of Hartford which will rotate in there and then, with the upper low tracking as it is, I don’t think the band really lifts north of them. And add in, upslope winds wringing out moisture. Many inches possible in places like Pittsfield, etc ….
Waiting in the airport down here in SRQ 88° 77° dewpoint. 70° up in PVD. I’m hoping the rain will ease up. I should be up there around 1:30. Hopefully those heavy rain bands will have lifted to the north.
I got Wordle in 6.
Vicki, your thinking of “Kalamazoo”.
Great getting it. And 😀
You got it.
I wonder why that simple word was so difficult for ALL of us today? Strange.
Looks like I am still the engineer with a lowly 5. Someone HAS to better that!!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂
A FB friend who is exceptionally good at Wordle failed today.
Pouring here!!!
Thanks, TK!
Got it while sitting at the barn waiting for granddaughter
Wordle a 6 PHEW.
JPD Remains the conductor
Yay! you got it. I am really surprised with this one.
It is not a difficult word, yet we ALL had trouble getting it.
Must be our first guess words that lead us down the wrong path.
Thanks TK. Hope all are doing well here 🙂 it’s fire season here in the West so work is busy and my check-ins are somewhat limited these days, but always enjoy reading!
An incorrect long range call on my part: I really figured it would take a tropical or remnant tropical event to bust the Northeast US drought, at least if it was gonna happen this year. And given the state of the Atlantic tropics, that didn’t seem overly likely to me.
Nope. Drought is done-zo, regardless of what the monitor says. And I don’t see it coming back. If anything, hydrologic concerns over the next 12 months will probably tilt heavily towards the other side of the coin…
Also, on the drought monitor, while it is somewhat misleading to begin with, keep in mind there’s a Tuesday cutoff for the data that goes into it. So none of today’s precip will be reflected initially, likely making tomorrow’s update appear particularly egregious relative to current conditions.
Thank you WxWatcher.
Always happy to see you checking in.
I spent far too much time telling people about that Tuesday cutoff on a recent social media post by a Boston TV station.
TV mets have made many verbal blunders when it comes to that map. MANY! The Tuesday cutoff takes place early on Tuesday AM … I’m not sure if all the TV mets even know it.
As WxWatcher mentioned, the map might not be all that accurate to start with. Sometimes I prefer to look at water levels in our major reservoirs. It can be more informative about where we really are.
I’m pretty sure in this case the post was made by an intern, as I have noticed a fair amount of weather-related posts seem to be showing up with little or no input from the actual weather team..
I think most of the meteorologists are this point are probably aware of the cut-off for that map, except maybe a few of the younger ones that have not dealt with it much yet.
But I will often step in and clarify things when I see shortcomings, regardless of the source. More of a public service. If you have the knowledge, share the knowledge. 🙂
Thanks Tk
I am here in Foxboro, as my wife looks at a camper with her sister (for her sister).
This weather is perfect, as I have come to learn one of the bigger things that can be tough to tell about campers is if they have had leak problems.
Well, it’s pouring !!!!! 🙂
Fun and perfect
Just arrived in Schenectady for a short break before heading up to Lake George for the rest of the week. That was a harrowing drive. Sheets of blinding rain the whole way.
FWIW. We have had 4.15” in SE Sutton so far in July not counting today. The blackstone river Canal is just starting to fill. And please remember the TV Mets have many dictates. Mets in general get critized regularly
I have a busy (fun) couple of days. If I’m not back here, I’m praying for a successful procedure for you tomorrow, TK.
Thank you TK!
Wordle: Big old fail
Oh, no. So Sorry. Get em tomorrow!
Very unusual for you, Sue. Unless I missed a post, JPD has the engine with 5
71/70
0.56″ in a lull.
5.79″ in July rains including what has fallen so far today.
Not a bad day down here at all . Some very light rain in pembroke this morning & appointment in Duxbury was sunny & in Plymouth now with decent conditions with no rain .
I have a bad feeling eastern sections will get SKUNKED as I don’t like what is NOT happening to our south and that is…RAIN!!!
There are even glimpses of the sun here now.
ALL CLEAR ON THE EASTERN FRONT!!!
I can see the next Drought Monitor Map now…a nice clean slate for western sections and continued “colorful” for the east.
*Or should that be ALL’S QUIET…etc.?
Keep in mind that the recent rain will not be included in the data used for tomorrow’s Drought Monitor. The data cutoff is 8AM EDT on Tuesday.