DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 15-19)
A cold front exits, stage-right (i.e., offshore to the east) early this morning, taking the last of its showers and thunderstorms with it, and then clouds give way to plenty of sun as drier air arrives during today. High pressure slides just south of the region Tuesday with fair and pleasant weather. Dry weather continues Wednesday but you’ll notice an increase in high cloudiness in response to low pressure heading into the Great Lakes with its warm front extending out from it and approaching our region. That front will thicken the clouds up Wednesday night when a shower or thunderstorm can occur as more humid air arrives. As the low passes to our north on Thursday, its trailing cold front, and probably a pre-frontal trough, will sweep across our region, acting on the warm, humid air in place. This will trigger a round or two of showers and thunderstorms, and there is some potential for severe weather to occur. Updates will fine-tune that part of the forecast over the next couple of days. Behind this front will come a cooler, drier Canadian air mass for Friday with an active breeze and a mix of sunshine and clouds that day.
TODAY: A shower or thunderstorm possible far eastern areas, especially southeastern NH and Cape Cod, early in the day, then clouds give way to sun. Highs 78-85. Dew point drops to 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 56-63. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 76-83, coolest South Coast. Dew point rises toward 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Fog patches form. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 76-83. Dew point rises to near 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Any showers / thunderstorms end, followed by clearing. Fog patches through evening. Lows 56-63. Dew point falls to 50s. Wind SW shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 76-83. Dew point near 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 20-24)
Fair, pleasant weekend weather June 20-21. The summer solstice occurs at 4:24 a.m. EDT on June 21. Humidity, clouds, and shower chances may increase from the early to middle portion of next week as the air flow turns more southerly and a trough approaches from the west.
DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 25-29)
West to northwest air flow with one or two disturbances causing passing shower / t-storm chances, otherwise a fairly dry pattern sets up with somewhat changeable but generally seasonably warm temperatures.
https://stormhq.blog/2026/06/15/weekly-outlook-june-15-21-2026/
Good morning and thank you TK
72 up from 71
Ocean: 61
WORDLE: 5
Rain was an epic fail overnight. Logan picked up a whoping 0.01 inch of rain. Last night at 11PM, Sydney Welch had 0.60 inch for Bosto. How’d that work out.? I told my wife that I didn’t think we would get much if any rain at all, but I closed all the windows just in case. What a waste that was!!
A mere hours to go, how can a forecast be blown so badly??????
Sorry you didn’t get more beneficial rain than that.
We didn’t do a lot better, .04″ at the nearby, local airport.
Nice 5 !
Definitely much more beneficial rains way up north in the White Mtns.
nice 5. We had 0.01 also.
Thanks TK !
Wordle: 3
Outstanding!!!
Awesome Tom!!
Thanks! Wordle 4
Nice 4, And I am the caboose once again!!!
Excellent !
Great 4!
We got 0.18″ of rain last night.
I got Wordle in 3.
Outstanding!!
Awesome !
And super 3!
Waiting on the 12Z runs, but have a look at the Helicity for 18Z Thursday
0-1km
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=srh01&rh=2026061506&fh=84
0-3KM
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=srh03&rh=2026061506&fh=84
I am pretty sure this is what WxWacther was referring to in yesterday’s blog. If anything were to get cooking, the potential for rotation would be large. Getting something going would be key.
Was the Revere tornado of a few years ago spawned by a somewhat similar set up? If I recall, it was low-topped convection as per what WxWatcher discussed yesterday.
HMMMMMM
Those maps were from the 6Z NAM.
6z RRFSA had the helicity as well, but not nearly as pronounced.
Thank you, TK. 73/62 with a low of 67
Hopping on Tjammers car
Wordle 4
Nice. I’m twiddling my thumbs in the lonely caboose!! (:
Come on up!!!
On the way thank you
Nice, Vicki !
Thank you!!
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/resize/xgtwo_atl_7d1_w1920.png
Nothing to worry about, but perhaps a chance to increase the rains in the deep south.
It obviously didn’t rain at all here overnight. When I woke up early this morning the parking lot was bone dry. What happened to those big bad storms that were supposed to wake us up? I slept like a baby.
Hopefully the Thursday event will be more potent.
Thanks, TK!
0.04″
Thanks, TK.
Thanks TK
Thanks TK.
There were some big rain totals in parts of the mid-Atlantic but looks like drought won the battle for the most part in SNE last night.
I was curious as to what the 12z RRFS would do with Thursday, being fully in range of the event now. As it turns out it basically described down to the letter the type of environment I discussed yesterday. Plenty of shear, including rotational shear, but real marginal on the instability. But enough to generate convection, at least on that run. Still doesn’t mean that’s the “right answer” but it’s in the ballpark of what I was looking for.
Definitely impressive wind fields for this time of year. Even in the absence of convection, likely to be some pretty breezy synoptic flow on Thursday.
JPDave – the Revere tornado day does come to mind for me as an analog for Thursday, yes. But would be contingent on favorable frontal timing and having instability coming in on the high end of expectations. These setups “bust” more often than they “boom.”
Thank you WxWatcher. Most interesting
74/62. Mostly clouds with some blue between
Not sure why but there seems to be a misunderstanding that last night’s rain was “supposed to be” widespread beneficial.
Nope.
Last night worked out on the lower side of the range expected.
It’s IMPORTANT not to focus on exact numbers you see on TV as those are usually one model run. Although this is another great case why they should not be showing model runs on TV and should display a prepared forecast map.
News directors cannot grasp this concept.
Did you honestly expect 0.01 inch for Boston?
I doubt Quincy even got that much. As I mentioned above, the ground was bone dry.
I honestly expected a broken line of showers and thunderstorms. That’s what we got. The amounts vary greatly in convective activity.
This isn’t about forecasting down to the hundreth of an inch in one city. It doesn’t work like that.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850t_anom&rh=2026061512&fh=126&r=na&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850t_anom&rh=2026061512&fh=198&r=na&dpdt=&mc=
Save for a higher push of humidity Thursday, I think the vast majority of people may like the next few weeks of weather.
Looking at those projected 850 mb anomalies, we’re probably looking at a lot of days in the 70s, maybe touching 80F with pleasant humidities.
This set-up is what defined the 2 previous Augusts. Rex Block in northern Canada and underneath that, a suppressed jet stream with comfortable 70s to low 80s during August.
I wonder if this pattern happens earlier in the summer, if maybe August will be hotter this warm season, compared to the previous 2.
I guess the continental 48’s win the next few weeks with not overly hot weather is Europe’s loss.
They look like they are going to swelter !!!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850t_anom&rh=2026061512&fh=102&r=eu&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850t_anom&rh=2026061512&fh=150&r=eu&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850t_anom&rh=2026061512&fh=198&r=eu&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850t_anom&rh=2026061512&fh=246&r=eu&dpdt=&mc=
Good luck !!!!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2026061512&fh=198&r=eu&dpdt=&mc=
594 dm (500 mb ridge) building and sustaining for days on end.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2026061512&fh=282&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
By comparison on our side of the world, ho hum
I’d like to be clear. No tornado Thursday. I rule that day and I’m standing firm. 👿
There won’t be a lot of instability. So let’s hope something doesn’t get cranking.
Absolutely
Thank you TK!
Wordle: 3
Excellent!!!
Excellent
I said it earlier and I’ll say it again. There was nothing wrong with the forecasts overnight. The system was expected to produce a broken line of convection, and it did. Nobody ever said that the entire area was getting heavy rain. Thunderstorms can produce heavy rainfall. There are going to be other areas with just lighter showers, and gaps where little or nothing happens.
We were already working with no solar heating and decent but not ideal dynamics. Given how these systems tend to go overnight, last night’s actually did pretty well overall.
Just because it doesn’t happen in a couple square feet on someone’s property doesn’t mean it didn’t happen anywhere.
There were some decent showers last night. There was not a drought-breaking rainfall, nor was there expected to be.
Also, another reminder: Do NOT pay attention to TV weathercast model “futurecasts”. They are useless. The broadcasters have been instructed to show those.
If it were up to me, they’d never be shown. MY forecast would be shown. That’s how it’s done correctly.
Interesting. Boston, Quincy Norwood, Bedford got around 0.01 inch. Mansfield zilch.. That’s a bit more than one little section of a city or town.
Cape Cod got a decent shot, and parts of NNE as well.
I did not have a lot of faith in this thing last night. I knew the potential, but figured the full potential would not be realized. That was the correct notion.
Full disclosure,,,
Even Sydney Welch last night, even though she posted 0.60 inch for Boston, actually said that it could all fall apart.
I am wrong many times, but I had a strong hunch we would not get much rain if any at all. 🙂
After review of 12z info. ZERO changes to ongoing forecast.
We need a tropical system. Only way I can see to make a wholesale dent in this multiyear drought
What is a tropical system?
The absolute best way is a semi-stable pattern in which we have a long wave trough established over the Appalachian Mountains and a frequent flow of tropical air up the East Coast. This would have to go on for a while.
A single system with heavy rainfall is unlikely to do the job fully due to the amount of run-off such systems produce. A series of soaking rains with no long gaps between is ideal, and I can’t say that’s entirely impossible to see as we get a stronger El Nino.
Time will tell.
Agree that drought solutions don’t come quickly. A D3 (severe) drought level could take many months and actually up to 2 years to resolve itself. Hydrologists are beginning to voice concerns.
Keep in mind, the 2016 & 2020 drought peaks were more severe than our current situation.
2016 had the lowest water levels in The CHarles River that I could remember.
Wow. And I remember very low. I suspect you do also.
Water out here is full but I Suspect they control levels
72/56. Can you say ahhhhhhhhhhh
The 1932 Red Sox posted the absolute worst record in their history, which still stands today (for now). 😉
43-111 (.279)
Patriots training camp: July 25 🙂
And will remain their worst. They are not going to win under 14 games for the rest of this season, and will end up a .500 team by season’s end.
63/53. 😀
New post…