Wednesday June 17 2026 Forecast (7:29AM)

56 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 17-21)

We have another nice day in store for today but there will be some varying amounts of high and mid level cloud cover to limit the sun. A disturbance approaches from the west and while it can trigger a few showers and thunderstorms to our west later today that activity is expected to dissipate before arriving. Overnight light rain approaches as a warm front begins its trek across the region, one that will produce additional showers and perhaps some embedded thunder in our area during Thursday morning. We enter the warm sector of low pressure passing to our north Thursday afternoon, and a trough and cold front will then move through the region, being focus points for showers and thunderstorms. While a lack of sun and marginal instability are negative factors, there is some potential for a few strong storms with the help of a couple other positive factors, including decent wind shear, which could allow any established storms to become super cells and rotate. While this probability is not extreme, it’s enough that we should pay close attention until the storm threat passes and ends in the evening. So, be weather-aware Thursday, just in case. Behind this what is a three day weekend for many (Friday through Sunday) looks quite nice. We will see some breezy conditions at times between low pressure to our northeast and high pressure building from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic especially Friday and Saturday. Both of those days will also see some passing fair weather clouds, but I strongly suspect any pop-up showers will be confined to the mountains to our north. Sunday, we’ll see some high clouds fanning across the sky in advance of our next wet weather threat, but that will hold off easily for a dry day and evening to finish the weekend! Heat and humidity will be absent during this stretch as well, making it quite pleasant for outdoor activities. We welcome summer with the occurrence of the solstice at 4:24 a.m. on Sunday.

TODAY: Sun / cloud mix. Highs 76-83, coolest South Coast. Dew point rising toward 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Showers arrive west to east pre-dawn. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers with a chance of a thunderstorm during the morning. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, with strong storms a potential. Highs 74-81. Dew point rises toward 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: An early shower or thunderstorm toward Cape Cod otherwise clearing. Fog patches evening. Lows 56-63. Dew point falls to 50s. Wind SW shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 76-83. Dew point near 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A few clouds, then clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point near 50. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 76-83. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 22-26)

Active pattern next week. Rain threat June 22. Shower threat June 24. T-storm threat June 26. Temperatures variable but averaging close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

Quieter pattern here. West northwest flow and a couple disturbances with short-lived unsettled threats, Otherwise, mainly dry. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

56 thoughts on “Wednesday June 17 2026 Forecast (7:29AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK

    64, up from 59. Made 79 yesterday.

    Ocean: 62

    Wordle; 5

  6. Thank you, TK

    62/59 overnight low a lovely 54. As promised by TK, the DP is creeping up

    1. convective blob. Is that a new term. I like it.

      I’d like to see a TV met come on and say we have a convective blob moving into the area…

  11. Pick your model, they sure have a big rain event for next Monday-ish (some slight timing differences)

    I don’t understand if its real or possibly enhanced by potential convective feedback issues?

  15. Thanks to SAK for pointing out to me (I wasn’t paying attention) NHC’s horrendous errors on the report for TS Arthur today.

    The center is 50 miles west southwest of where they reported it, so that’s wrong.

    It’s moving WEST. They report it accelerating northeastward. Wrong again.

    I had brief hope for NHC a couple seasons ago. That’s gone again. How I long for the old days when they actually knew how to do this. There’s no excuse for the garbage put out there. None at all.

  16. On a more exciting note, SAK also pointed out to me the outflow boundary from an old MCS moving into western New England. I will add that the RRFS model did do a pretty good job predicting this feature out beyond 48 hours ago. It had some isolated storms there, and even though we haven’t see anything pop as of mid afternoon, the model at least had the right idea that there would be a boundary there.

    Locally, a sea breeze boundary just went by my area and the temp went from 81 to 77 very quickly. Not a huge drop, but with the wind up a few notches it is quite noticeable.

    I haven’t had much chance to look at weather since I posted the blog today. I’ll give things a look and comment again if there are any changes. If you don’t see another comment, there are no changes to report, or I have nothing else to add.

    Lots to do here! 🙂

  20. Finally got a chance to look at the loop for Arthur.

    I can most definitely confirm that SAK is 100% correct (not that I had any doubt obviously). Arthur has not been accelerating northeast. It’s been drifting west. Maybe a bit south of west now since I first mentioned it. NHC is completely wrong.

    Yes, the high clouds from the very displaced convection is moving northeast in the upper winds. But the movement of the surface low center, nope. That’s W to WSW. This is basic satellite and surface analysis meteorology.

      1. 5PM update (just sent to me by SAK). “Arthur is moving NNE…”

        No, it’s not. It’s moving WSW. My goodness.

  21. We knew there would be reporting issues after the deep staff cuts.

    From a nyt article in May 2026

    “The National Weather Service is struggling to recover from last year’s deep staff cuts, raising doubts among some meteorologists about whether the agency is ready for severe storms or hurricane season, which starts next month.

    One key facility in Oklahoma that leads tornado forecasting and warnings has an unusual five open positions, its website shows. Others around the country will lose meteorologists temporarily as officials shuffle them to cities that will host World Cup soccer games in June and July, according to an internal email reviewed by The New York Times.

    The agency’s roster of more than 2,500 scientists shrank by about 15 percent last year through firings and early retirements. The Weather Service’s data and expertise forms the backbone for all kinds of forecasts, including those shared by television meteorologists and smartphone apps.“

  22. On a separate meteorological note, “Arthur” was never actually a tropical storm. I’m in complete disagreement with that designation.

  23. I am now heading out for the evening.

    Next you hear from me is tomorrow AM’s blog update!

  27. It’s going to be an incredibly windy start to the US open by late tomorrow morning. Wonder if they will stop play? Saying it will be similar to 1986 start

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