Thursday June 18 2026 Forecast (7:30AM)

133 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 18-22)

Low pressure passing north of our region today will drag a warm front across the region first, followed by a cold front. The warm front will produce a couple rounds of showers with possible embedded thunder. One or two clusters or lines of thunderstorms can be expected later today from west to east with the cold front and possible pre-frontal trough. There are some competing negative and positive factors with regard to the chance of severe storms. Negative factors, against severe weather, include lack of sun in the warm sector (between the two fronts) and limited instability. Positive factors, in favor of severe weather, include abundant potential energy and notable wind shear. The latter can enable individual storms to rotate, which would increase tornado potential if we were to get an organized storm not part of a solid line. A more linear set-up can still result in strong to damaging straight-line wind gusts. Odds favor this activity occurring mostly north of I-90, but all of the region should be weather-aware this afternoon should any of this potential be realized. Even without storm-caused wind gusts, we will have a pretty active southerly wind developing today. The threat comes to an end rather quickly this evening as the cold front sweeps through and drier air arrives. Friday’s weather features a gusty westerly wind, seasonable warmth but dry air, and somewhat limited sun as an area of low pressure passes to our south, sending its high cloud shield across the sky, while there are also some pop-up fair weather clouds. Saturday will feature additional fair-weather clouds, though I believe any pop-up showers stay to our north. Sunday, some high cloudiness makes a return ahead of the next approaching low pressure area, but also additional fair weather clouds will pop-up, but again any showers that develop should stay to the north. There will be a slight cooling trend Saturday and Sunday, and humidity levels will remain comfortably low. A gusty breeze remains active Saturday but diminishes later in the day, and lighter winds are expected on Sunday. We welcome summer with the occurrence of the solstice at 4:24 a.m. on Sunday. The aforementioned low pressure area is expected to bring an overcast sky and a rain chance for Monday, but the details including timing and rain coverage and intensity are to be determined.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers with a chance of a thunderstorm morning through midday. Additional showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, with isolated strong to severe storms possible. Highs 74-81. Dew point rises through the 60s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-40 MPH.

TONIGHT: An early shower or thunderstorm toward Cape Cod otherwise clearing. Fog patches evening. Lows 56-63. Dew point falls to 50s. Wind SW shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Clouds limit sun at times. Highs 76-83. Dew point near 50. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouds decrease. Lows 54-61. Dew point near 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Dew point near 50. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Highs 74-81. Dew point near 50. Wind W up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 55-62. Dew point near 50. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 62-69. Dew point rises to near 60. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 23-27)

Shower threats June 24 and late June 25 into early June 26 based on current timing. Fair otherwise. Temperatures variable but averaging close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

West northwest flow and a couple disturbances with short-lived unsettled threats, Otherwise, mainly dry. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

133 thoughts on “Thursday June 18 2026 Forecast (7:30AM)”

  5. I guess there will be a good deal of radar watching this afternoon.

    local radar

    https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBOX/standard

    Albany radar

    https://radar.weather.gov/station/KENX/standard

    It looks like after this next batch passes, we’ll be rain free for some time. Will there be at least some partial clearing?
    That is the million dollar question.

    Satellite loop

    https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES19/ABI/SECTOR/ne/GEOCOLOR/20261690721-20261691116-GOES19-ABI-NE-GEOCOLOR-600×600.gif

    Satellite suggests little to no clearing, but who knows. We shall see.

  6. Exceprt from local NWS discussion

    Projected wind shear values are impressive, with values not
    usually seen across southern New England. Effective bulk shear
    of 40-60 kt and 0-1 km storm relative helicity values of 200-400
    m2/s2 raise the threat of strong straightline wind damage and
    perhaps a tornado. The primary limiting factor will be how much
    instability can be generated

  8. Thanks TK! And US Open already delayed not because of wind..but fog! Now they need the wind to blow away the fog.. Ha!

  12. Is the Local NWS radar running in “Hot” mode again.

    Big yellow blob just moved over me and barely a sprinkle occurred. Interesting.

  14. Wordle was a gift. Four correct letters with first two words and two of them in correct spot

    Wordle 3

    1. Vicki I wish You the best birthday today . She is ok but still has an awful lot going on , we will be celebrating her tonight & thank you for asking .

      1. I’m happy she is improving and you can celebrate but sorry to hear she is still struggling

  17. There may be no way to know but in case there is. TK do we have timing on the cutoff this evening that your discussion mentioned. Thank you. Sorry to be so picky. I’m wondering if we should wait to go out to dinner till the weekend. We will be driving west on pike to Sturbridge

  18. Happy birthday Vicki!

    I will join you in the 3-car today. We should all meet there for the birthday celebration.

  23. Happy birthday Vicki!

    Not a drop of rain this AM south of the city. We’re getting Charlie-holed every.single.time. Sun is out now here and quickly clearing. I don’t want severe weather but I do want rain so fingers crossed but not banking on it.

    2. Love that term!! Which one of us here actually coined that phrase??? I honestly can’t remember. I don’t think it was I.

  25. Thank you TK!

    Wordle: Jumping on car 5 with JPD and Tom. We will bring Vicki’s cake up to car 3 for the birthday celebration.

    Happy Birthday Vicki!

    1. Been hoping for rain but everytime we get close to an event lately it underperforms. I have hopes for the start of next week but it feels like totals will be backed off. Hingham issued a warning that the tanks are severely low.

      1. There are quite a number of MA cities and towns with various levels of water bans in place.

  33. Thanks TK. Happy birthday Vicki!!

    Looking at what’s been happening over NY this morning, the storm mode is pretty linear but there’s been lots of little kinks and spins within the line, prompting several tornado warnings which to me have seemed well warranted.

    Lot of cloud cover over most of SNE right now though, with only a pretty small window of clearing ahead of the convection. So we’ll see what happens, not a worst case scenario like it could’ve been with a lot of morning clearing, but there’s still enough ingredients in place that a couple of tornadoes wouldn’t surprise me this afternoon or early evening, especially along and north of the Pike. Definitely a day to be heads up.

  36. Thanks, TK!

    Love the breeze today!

    Happy Birthday, Vicki and Mrs. SSK!!!! 🙂

    1. Thank you!! It seems to be a popular day. My next doir neighbor has a bday today. Paul McCartney also. As a teen I thought that was so special

  38. TORNADO WATCH
    Extended Eastward just about to Boston and all points West and portions of Northern CT.

      1. Sun in and out here, but looking at sky, looks like a bunch of sun due. This worries me, for sure.

    1. Hilarious!!! Good catch.

      Btw, is Boston included in the watch or not. Depending on the map I look at sometimes it looks like Boston Is just out of it, but other times it looks like Boston is just barely in it.

      Cindy’s map makes it look like Boston is in it.

  42. Thanks, TK.

    And Happy Birthday, Vicki! And I think to you, to SSK.

    Been busy shopping and doing some cleaning this morning and other things going on. Didn’t pay too much to the weather until about an hour ago. Been sunny here for some time. Sky is starting to look a bit weird now. Kind of a pinkish glow out east window. Last I looked at radar storms seem to be moving northeast., if I am correct.

  43. Hi Vicki! Meant to say Happy Birthday earlier today so here it is … HAPPY BIRTHDAY!

  46. Watch those cells developing ahead of the main line. If those have enough instability to become somewhat vertically deep, and if they can stay ahead of the approaching outflow boundary from the main line, those could become tornado producers.

    1. That’s exactly what I was just talking about on a page I admin. Watching that closely.

  48. Radar

    https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_eyJhZ2VuZGEiOnsiaWQiOiJ3ZWF0aGVyIiwiY2VudGVyIjpbLTcwLjg0OSw0Mi44MTddLCJsb2NhdGlvbiI6Wy03MC44NDksNDIuODE3XSwiem9vbSI6MTAsImxheWVyIjoiYnJlZl9xY2QifSwiYW5pbWF0aW5nIjp0cnVlLCJiYXNlIjoic3RhbmRhcmQiLCJhcnRjYyI6ZmFsc2UsImNvdW50eSI6ZmFsc2UsImN3YSI6ZmFsc2UsInJmYyI6ZmFsc2UsInN0YXRlIjpmYWxzZSwibWVudSI6dHJ1ZSwic2hvcnRGdXNlZE9ubHkiOmZhbHNlLCJvcGFjaXR5Ijp7ImFsZXJ0cyI6MC44LCJsb2NhbCI6MC42LCJsb2NhbFN0YXRpb25zIjowLjgsIm5hdGlvbmFsIjowLjZ9fQ%3D%3D

  52. So far, the lack of instability is overcoming the good shear in place.

    This is good news if you don’t want severe weather, and bad news if you want “action” from these.

    They have still be good wind producers and also bringing fairly brief intense downpours. The lightning production is very low.

    1. Tornado Watch for Essex and Middlesex counties. No Warnings yet. Me thinks that won’t happen.

  56. Eric has been on TV for at least 15 straight minutes. The Warning is for Worcester now til 6:15 PM.

    1. I’m at a standstill on 495 just east of Worcester and my phone started going nuts. Sky behind me is black and green

  57. Sorry I’d I’m repeating. Pete said one in Paxton popped up with serious rotation but does down quickly

  59. Huge huge thank you to TK for working through today with me so we will still be able to go to dinner.

  67. Well, some places do pick up a decent slug of rain with this. Not a drought-buster by any stretch, but as Petey B. likes to say, “a good drink of water”.

  70. Rain coming to an end here. Hard to say how much as my rain gauge has been kaput for some time. Judging by the puddles somewhere between 0.25 and 0.50 or so.

    Down to 69 here in rain cooled air. Just waiting to re-open the windows.

  72. Thanks TK and Happy Birthday Vicki! Hope you had a great dinner.

    Followed the squall line home from Hartford earlier in the sun and had a massive rainbow in front of me the whole way with the dark gray clouds and sheets of rain in the backdrop. Tried to take a picture but nearly went off the road so I aborted the attempt.

    Had a few small branches down in the yard here and a very quick 0.39” in the rain gauge. More than I expected given how narrow the band was when it came through. Must have really been pouring.

    Hopefully Monday produces as well. It’s been dry as a bone here with everything missing either north or south of us. For YTD rain we have only had 14.36”

  74. Logan picked up 0.37 inch. Sounds just right to me. We got a similar amount here.

  77. Not a drop in Padanaram Village and not even a slight whisper of wind now. It’s a delightful evening here

  78. JR mentioned “tornado-genesis”. Is that a new meteorological term?

    TK – Have you ever heard of it?

    1. It’s about as old as the term “tornado” in meteorology.

      Tornadogenesis.
      Frontogenesis.
      Cyclogenesis.
      I could go on, but you get the idea. 🙂

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