Front End Loader

555 Comments

8:29PM

Here comes a winter storm. A decent-sized one for a good portion of southeastern New England. Historic? Not even close. More like moderate to major. But impacts and snow amounts will vary depending on location, and the following is a breakdown of what to expect.

Why: Because it’s winter, and the clash of air masses in winter can often lead to winter storms. Just the basics. But seriously, it’s a low pressure system moving northeastward into the Upper Ohio Valley and interior Northeast then redeveloping off the Middle Atlantic Coast and taking the classic track just southeast of Cape Cod. The storm will have a decent amount of moisture and a pretty decent cold air mass to work with.

What is not a major factor: Wind. Only moderate and gusty winds, mainly along the coast. Tides / coastal flooding. Lack of strong wind and tides that are not astronomically high.

What are the main factors: Heavy snow, especially the first half of Wednesday. Mixing with sleet and rain and a change to rain over parts of far southeastern areas. Power outages which may occur due to wires coming down as a result of heavy snow on them or tree branches falling across them. This will be most likely in East Coastal Massachusetts down through southeastern Massachusetts where snow will be wetter than areas further inland and northwest of Boston.

Start time: 4AM to 6AM from west to east.

Heaviest precipitation times: 7AM to 1PM, as snow everywhere at first, then as sleet/rain over Cape Cod and the South Coast of MA and RI,  with a sleet/snow mix moving northward toward Boston but probably falling just short of overtaking the city. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour, where it is snowing without any mixing, are likely during this time.

End time: Slow tapering of snow from west to east mid afternoon through evening, rain/sleet changing back to snow in far southeastern and south coastal areas before ending.

Accumulation (for the entire storm): 2-4 inches Cape Cod and Islands westward along the South Coast of MA and immediate coast of RI, some turning to slush during mix/rain. 4-8 inches over the remainder of southeastern MA and interior RI except the far north, wet snow with fairly high water content. 8-10 inches elsewhere except pockets of 10-12+ inches from I-495 north and west in areas north of Route 2, highest amounts in higher elevations, with average consistency snow (not too wet, not light and fluffy either). The vast majority of the accumulation will occur in the first 8 hours of the storm, making it a front-end loaded storm, in terms of snowfall.

After it’s over: Dry and cold as high pressure dominates Thursday through Saturday.

Next storm threat: Of course everybody knows we’ve been watching a threat with significant potential for the Sunday-Monday time frame. Latest indications are that this system may develop and track a little too far south to bring a major storm to southeastern New England, but there is still enough disagreement in medium range guidance to be very uncertain. Long way to go. My feeling at the moment: not a major storm.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Clouds thicken. Snow arrives west to east before dawn and starts to accumulate right away. Lows in the 20s. Wind light N to NE.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Snow, heavy at times all areas early morning, continuing through late morning interior southeastern MA and RI northward but with a sleet mix working north toward Boston and possibly reaching the immediate metro area for a time, and a change to rain over Cape Cod and the Islands as well as the South Coast of MA and RI. Precipitation becomes lighter in the afternoon, snow north and west, mix to the southeast eventually turning back to snow. Highs 30-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH over Cape Cod and the Islands.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with areas of light snow and snow showers winding down by about midnight then clearing. Lows around 20. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-3o. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 30.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 15. High 30.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers PM. Low 20. High 29.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers AM. Low 20. High 28.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 11. High 25.

555 thoughts on “Front End Loader”

  1. Thanks TK! Love the title 😉

    It is unfortunate it is heavy snow, but at least wind is not a factor 😛 But hey, I know heavy snow is just a part of winter. I accept it. But cancel school please. Kthanxbye 🙂

  3. Thanks TK.

    I am really concerned that it simply does NOT last long enough. I sure hope
    the rates are way up there. 😀

  7. TO LAUREN:

    Your comment from this morning on the other blog was approved. Thank you for being a long time reader. 🙂

    As it stands now, and it’s very early, I think there’s enough uncertainty to consider bumping the flight up, if you can.

  9. TK, when will it be safe to shovel tomorrow? Concerned about getting the roof raked before dark. Thanks!

    1. Heaviest snow done by 2PM, but lighter snow at least off and on until early at night. I’d say by the end of the heaviest snow is the perfect time.

        1. Actually, yes. Tomorrow night I’ll be up atop the hill. Probably helping my friend shovel her car out before we head in and take care of a couple DVR shows. I’m going into Winter Olympics mode starting Thursday night. I’m a junkie for that event.

        2. We put a rubber roof on our worst roof last summer. I’ll wait until spring to comment on how well it worked. I’m superstitious !! But we sure are testing it

  12. TK, you posted both above-
    …northward toward Boston but probably falling just short of overtaking the city.
    …working north toward Boston and possibly reaching the immediate metro area for a time.
    Are you referring to downtown Boston (nearer the coast), only?
    Thank you!

    1. It should have been worded more clearly. What I am trying to say there is that a mix of sleet will probably reach the city, but that they will never change completely over to sleet.

    2. Agreed. 😀

      Looking good for tomorrow. NOT so good for weekend.

      Just wish the event would be longer tomorrow.

  14. I can’t even remember the last time the B’s beat Vancouver at home. they might do it tonight. It’s been at least a thousand years. Five minutes to go.

  18. To be fair, the NAM outcomes earlier today was one of the main reasons why some thought sleet and or rain would mix to boston. So now that the NAM is colder, do we change our thinking again? 😉

    1. The problem with the NAM earlier was convective feedback.

      The NAM typically runs warm/wet anyway, and then trends in the right direction inside 48, 36, or 24 hours, depending on the level of difficulty the model was having. It has a decent idea on this run, but is still too wet.

    1. Far from certain. But I am leaning in that direction. That said, I got a view of the full set of ensembles from 12z and I saw so many different solutions it was like I was looking at a weather map for 2 dozen random winter days. 🙂

  24. TK ….. I’ve probably developed a view that a negative NAO would be necessary to have either a very cold winter, a snowy winter or both in the northeast US.

    And yet, I just looked at the NAO and its been neutral or positive for several months now.

    What other teleconnections or big picture features this particular winter have allowed for a very cold, snowy winter in the absence of a negative NAO ? Thanks !!

    1. I think it’s been 2 things:
      1) The amount of cold air available either right over us or just north of us to tap.
      2) Note that many of these storms have been in a more zonal flow, a broad flatter trough, or quick-redeveloping lows just offshore from something that was coming from the west. Less tapping of Gulf of Mexico warmth like you would have with a full scale high amplitude trough.

  25. Report of 5 inches of snow in 2 hours in Lexington OH. This baby mean business with some intense snow fall rates. I wonder if some areas come in we’ll over a foot.

    2. I’d say it was “reservior-effect” snow off the Clear Fork, but it’s probably frozen solid. 😉

  26. Interesting…Marshfield, Scituate, Duxbury, Pembroke, Kingston and Plymouth have all cancelled school for tomorrow. So far Norwell, Hingham, Hanover, Hull, Weymouth and Rockland have not as of 10:15 and they are all further north.

  28. Just got home from the game, good win tonight. Older kids glued to the school cancellations, nothing for Andovef yet!

  29. Hi guys, I have been reading all season, but I messed up my email and couldn’t post! Happy to be back, and hope everyone is well, looking forward to a SNOWDAY tomorrow in methuen 🙂

  31. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
    1017 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014
    …THE 12Z NAM APPEARED TO BE A NORTHERN OUTLIER WITH ITS 850MB JET MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND STRONGER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE. THIS RESULTS IN THE NAM OFFERING A WARMER SOLUTION. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE
    FEEDBACK ISSUES AS LIGHTNING BECOMES WIDESPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS WE DISCARDED THE NAM AND FOLLOWED A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST. THIS DOESN/T RESULT IN MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST REGARDING SNOWFALL AND PTYPE. HENCE HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED.
    http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=MA&prodtype=discussion

  32. Foxboro, sharon, and KP are the notable schools in Norfolk county that are yet to close. Every surrounding town has already closed.

  33. suggestion expecially if you shovel and have no snow blower, do not wait for the snow to end, go out for every 4 inches or so , its gonna be heavy.

  34. i probably won’t find out till 4 or 5am if we close or they be stupid and have classes till 9 or something like the sort

  35. 00z GFS holds course. Sunday storm back in the picture but as a strong clipper that redevelops and nails us. Another feature after that to watch as well around the 13th timeframe.

    1. It’ll lose it eventually because I don’t think that storm is going to materialize. And I am not even sure the Valentine’s Day threat happens. Dry pattern after this one.

  37. TK – Regarding the Sunday/Monday storm, even if it trends further south & east are we still expected to get at least a few inches minimum?

  38. Newton: no snow yet.

    This weekend: OTS possible but would not bank on anything.

    Valentine’s Day: I am hyping this storm so I can become a TV met. 🙂

  39. NWS dialed back amounts on their snowfall map a little bit. I believe they had been too high anyway. The storm may pack a punch precip-wise but it’s moving WAY fast to drop too many double-digit amounts especially closer to Boston.

    1. Bingo – Old Salty thought that was the greater of the two reasons (pace vs. mix w/sleet) for less than double digit snows. The heavy stuff could be gone before lunch.

      1. Example: A given location in the NW suburbs may snow from 4AM TO 10PM, get 1 inch from 4AM-7PM, 5 to 7 inches from 7AM-NOON, but barely 1 inch additional during the last 10 hours of the snowfall from NOON-10PM. A good punch for a while, but not a long lasting one.

  41. Thanks for posting that link. My area of CT went from 4-6 inches now 6-8 inches. Snowfall right now in my area radar estimated 1-2 inches an hour. Heavier snow band north of NYC moving northeast with radar estimates close to 3 inches an hour.

  43. Good morning. Ground was lightly covered at 5:15. Framingham finally closed. Mac headed to work. I hope anyone doing the same can get out early. Matt, great suggestion re shoveling. Ill plan to do exactly that throughout day

  45. Area where macs car was parked covered over in about 15 minutes. I notice JR on 7 is not as certain of Sundays storm either

  47. Snow coming down here at a good clip. Should be an interesting ride at least roads will be empty and my suv will do well.

  48. The speed of this storm was the reason I said 8.2 inches at Logan. I never though widespread double digits would be achievable.

  50. Todd on BZ had one interesting call for today. He said that in the afternoon Boston might see sleet for a while but back to snow by the evening commute.

    The BZ snow map is a wide swath of 6-12″, 3-6″ in SE MA and upper Cape, and 1-3″ on outer Cape.

  52. 06z GFS with a new take on the Sun-Mon … running more to the inside …???

    I am looking at my Valentine’s day storm … looking a little less potent and maybe a little warmer too.

  57. It feels as if this is a very typical old fashioned New England snow. Maybe I’m just forgetting but it seems to have been a while since I’ve seen the numbers narrowed to a simple 6-12

  59. No blocking in place which has been the case all winter. I was just thinking with some of these snowfall rates imagine if we had blocking in place with these snow totals would be.

    1. Amazing how consistent overall patters are. It’s usually safe to stick with them until proven otherwise. No 975mb bomb in our future. Hey, I’ll take a 10-14 snow, I don’t know what I’m complaining about. They can’t all be blockbusters.

      1. Like I said earlier this winter I am more than happy with these types of types. Enough to have fun in but not causing major issues for days on end.

    1. LOL.

      I certainly agree. I Can’t really tell what the visibility is.
      Snow Moderate for sure, possibly HEAVY. 😀 😀

      When it gets lighter I’ll have a better handle on vis.

  66. Just continuing to pour down snow out my window. According to radar been in this 1-2 inch snowfall rates for a little over two hours now.
    As for next storm threat never thought it would be a blockbuster. I think there will be some snow with it.

  68. State workers told to stay home.
    More than 500 school closings.
    Courts closed.
    Mass Pike speed limit is 40 mph (as if you could go that fast!).
    Logan open, but flights cancelled all over the place, maybe 300 so far.

  70. In the FWIW department,

    The Euro has ALL SNOW for Boston.
    The latest CANADIAN both 0Z global and 06Z Regular have ALL SNOW for Boston.

    I don’t think it sleets in Boston. If it does, it is very brief and probably just a mix.

    Temperature 29.7 here. 😀 😀

  71. Snow totals are going to pile really fast, many reports of 2-3 inches per hour coming in at us. NWS are going to verify IMO and wouldn’t be surprised to see high end numbers verify as well.

    1. Hadi see below. I’m thinking the same.
      My 10 inch prediction for Logan “may” come in as well. 😀 😀 😀

  73. Looking at current observations, most reporting stations are coming
    in with visibilities from .25 to .5 miles, which supports Moderate to Heavy Snow.

    FYI 7am obs from Boston, .25 vis in heavy snow.
    Boston’s wind at 90 degrees. Inland winds or 040 or 050. 😀

    Still difficult to say here. Could be 1/4 mile but no more than 3/8 mile. 😀 😀

    1. Vis down to about a 1/4 mile here in Hingham. Looks like close to to 2 inches new on the ground. Getting ready for work…ughh.

  76. Don’t know how this is possible, but snow jut got HEAVIER here.
    Visibility is UNDER 1/4 mile with S+ snow. AWESOME!!!

  77. That mix line working into southern parts of CT. Still snowing where I am but I think I will be going over to that nasty mix soon. What a good thump of snow this has been.

    1. JJ on radar it looking to be lightening up in your area.
      Is that so, OR are you still in the heavy stuff?

      Thanks

      1. Old Salty it is still come down moderate pace here. Visiblity 1/2 mile. Radar still indicating 1-2 inch an hour snowfall
        rates here which has been the case for now just over 3 hours.
        Interesting NWS out of Upton had lowered the snowfall totals for my area from 8-10 to 4-6 yesterday afternoon now went back to the 8-10.

  78. At LEAST 4 inches on the ground so far here, perhaps a bit more as I look out.
    I can easily see the gradient beside the vechiles. Looks like a freshly shoveled walkway.

    It is PILING UP EXTREMELY FAST!

    SO it literally has been snowing nearly 2 inches an hour since the start here which
    was just about 2 hours ago. And now it is coming down harder still.

    YIKES!!!

    Unless this shuts down even sooner than expected, we WILL make double digits. 😀 😀

  79. Heaviest snow is over by 9AM. That is, heaviest, not accumulating snow. Hope everybody is safe today. I am driving several times. Once in a moment, again at 2PM, and 2 more times this evening. My check-ins will be mobile and limited. Looking forward to your reports. Have a great day. 🙂

    1. TK,

      Looking at the local Taunton Nexrad, Upton Nexrad and Albany Nexrad,
      I believe that the HEAVY SNOW continues well beyond 9AM. 😀 😀

  80. Made it to work safe and sound. I have to say I thoroughly enjoyed cleaning the snow off my car and just taking in the quiet of a snowy morning. It was extremely peaceful. It is safe to say that I had an inch of snow on my car within 20 minutes. Hadi’s description of it “puking” snow is dead on. Be safe all!

  81. Up to 30 here. Don’t like that, but it was expected.
    I want the wind to turn, but not at the expense of shutting down the precip.
    I guess we can’t have it both ways.

  83. JJ, just looked at the Albany Nexrad.
    It still shows strong echos for your area.

    On the Taunton Nexrad, it shows light echos for your area.
    Now, that is a classic case of attenuation.

    The snow is SO Heavy, that the Taunton radar cannot see through it
    all and thus only lighter echoes are returned from more distant locations.

    TRULY AWESOME!!!!

    1. Your mentioning radar echos a few hours ago just north of NYC had a radar echo that looked like a thunderstorm in the
      summer.
      Snow has let up some and there is some sleet starting to mix in.

  84. At least 4 inches here. I just shoveled half the driveway and was surprised it was not heavier snow. Sue…I agree that it is wonderfully peaceful. We have a very small side road and one of the huge town trucks has already made three passes since 6:00. We usually have a small, private contractor and don’t see him until well into the storm.

  85. Old Salty its sleeting down on the shoreline of CT and that area starting to progress to the north. Bigger snowflakes starting to mix in with the smaller flakes.

    1. As long as you are still snow. How much on the ground?

      I absolutely cannot believe how fast it is accumulating here. Incredible!!!!

      It’s difficult to see across the street. IF we had wind, this would be an all
      OUT blizzard!!!!

        1. about 1.5 inches per hour on average. Not too shaby.
          Perhaps you make double digits as long as it doesn’t
          quit too soon. How’s the vis?

  88. 8AM obs from Beverly. Heavy snow vis .25 miles, however, the interesting
    thing is the wind was CALM? Is it about to change to the North?

  90. Snow here. Mostly fine, although every once in a while, some huge flakes mix in.

    3.5 from current event ……. very wet snow ……. 7 on the ground combined with Monday’s afternoon event.

  95. Pouring snow here in Coventry, ct. 2″ in last hour and 8″ on the ground.. We’ll see if wee can crack 10″ before the changeover. Surface temp still holding at 24.

    1. So you’re East of Hartford near Stors.

      I hope you make double digits. However, you are scheduled to go over
      to sleet. Will be interesting to see when/if. Sleet line is close, that’s for sure.

  96. SNOW is getting deep here.
    OVER 6 inches. Looks like 7 to me.

    Still Vomiting SNOW. Projectile vomit at that.

  98. Just talked to a friend down in Falmouth..it had gone to rain briefly there but now back to snow between 5 and 6 inches of heavy wet snow there. Snow here is a little fluffier although nothing like the two big recent storms.

  99. JJ looks like some really heavy echoes are about to move in on your area
    (From Albany radar) HOPE it’s NOT the sleet.

  100. approaching 5.6 inches here in billerica.. visibilites no more than 1/4 of a mile.
    snow heavy….. temperature dropped to 23 since 7am

    1. Keep the measurements coming.

      Vicki, in all Honesty, MORE than that here. I just can’t believe how
      hard it is snowing and I’ve been around the block a few times.

      😀 😀 😀

  102. Not for Nothing, BUT where is all this stronger East Wind that was going to cut
    down on coastal accumulations??????

    There’s virtually NO wind at all here.

    Just SPEWING snow here. SPEWING!!!!

  103. Well, you know it is a big storm when they show Barry Burbank in the back room of the weather office with his shirtsleeves rolled up. I must say I miss Bruce and his wooly vest and of course – Shelby Scott.

      1. I did too! I was married in June of 1987. My husband called the station in April and asked Bruce if it was going to be a nice day for our wedding! He was very kind and told him that of course it would be a nice day. It was very nice of him to humor my husband. It was hot, humid, high 90s. Our wedding reception was under a tent and we had a thunderstorm, hail, a tornado warning, and a leaky tent. LOL.

        1. I shouldn’t be laughing but that is just too funny.

          What date in June if you don’t mind my asking !

            1. Oh I forgot – my grandson’s birthday. I believe I knew it was your anniversary also. My son was born on the 13th – March tho. Good number 🙂

  104. It has gone over to moslty sleet here. There still a few snow flakes mixing in. 8 inches in 5 hours pretty impressive. Finally got into a heavy snow band for the first time this winter.

  105. I sent my measurement to Harvey, nws and Todd and tent are saying they think it’s too high. OS can you tweet them as well so they don’t think I am crazy.

    2. You are not crazy and I’m telling you and all, we are now at 7 or 8 inches
      and climbing rapidly!!

  106. This snowcover will have an opportunity to stick around for a while. Maybe a few south facing areas will lose some to the strengthening February sun, but other than that …..

  107. Well no sooner do I speak and we just started mixing with sleet here in Coventry. Yes. OS, I am in northern CT east of Hartford and just NW of Storrs. Looks like 8″ is going to do it!

    1. Too bad. Can see the sleet line on radar. I could see when you posted that
      it was very close. Hope you change back soon. 😀

  109. I have 3 Nexrad radar loops running in 3 different browser windows,
    Taunton, Albany and Philadelphia. The back edge of this stuff (and it remains
    pretty heavy right to the back edge) is still 100 miles West of NYC.

    Unless we unexpectedly go over to sleet, this is going to continue for quite some
    time yet. 😀 😀 😀

  110. I think north of Boston (Merrimack Valley) is going to miss out again. Even when they are calling for us to get the most we will not. I think just southwest of Boston to the Brighton area will end up with the most snow. I think Channel 4 has to move their “up to a foot portion” further south and put the Merrimack Valley in a 5-10 inch band. Look at the radar echo’s.

    1. Agree. I can’t believe how FAST it’s piling up here in JP. Visibility about 1/8 of a mile here in very very HEAVY Snow!!

      Honestly, no exaggeration, we are now making a solid run at 10 inches!!!]
      We may not quite be there, but rapidly approaching it.

      We have been averaging 2-3 inches an hour since 5:30 AM.

  112. Same as Charlie …. about a 50/50 mixture with fine snow grains.

    Its cold …. I dont think Marshfield ever gets to plain rain.

  113. again this is why i whish the cape , islands, southeast areas get mix precip or rain, so then we get into the heavy snow

  122. Interesting the sleet line is moving up from the south but not west off the eastern coast of MA. A saw a lot of maps that had lower amounts along the east facing coast for a sleet line to work in. I dont think that will happen as OS and Hadi are getting dumped on right now.

  126. I couldn’t stand it anymore> Just took a measurement.

    7.0 inches

    In a little less than 4 hours. Very close to a 2 inch per hour average.

  127. Radar echos looking ragged north of route 2 and beyond into S VT/NH. Looking like they get screwed again. It just does not want to snow up there this winter.

    1. It appears our accumulations r done here, but this sleet is terrible, gotten a quarter of an inch of ice pellets

  136. dam, not really accumulating right now though alot of white is still falling, have a feeling i have grapple falling right now. got almost no accumulation since 845

  137. Looking at 9AM obs

    Mostly visibilities of .25 miles in heavy snow across the area with wind at 030.

    Visibility of .25 in Westfield and vis of .5 miles all the way back to Albany.

    Still snowing at Bradley in CT, but sleet to the South of there.

  138. If mixing takes place it has nothing to do with the surface wind. It’s what’s going on aloft.

    So far the forecast is mostly on track except take the heavier band south just a bit. Still think double digit snows will be not widespread, mainly because after that enhanced area in CT comes by in the next hour, it’s all light after that.

    Somewhere between 6 and 7 in Reading now. Lighter snow, occasionally moderate.

    1. Mixing of sleet has nothing to do with surface wind.
      Mixing with RAIN OR not mixing but contributing to a wetter snow certainly would. 😀

    3. TK WBZ said this won’t end until 11pm or so…still safe to cleanup after 3pm? I want to avoid doing double clean up.

  139. Heavy snow all the way back to Poughkeepsie NY.

    Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY
    (KPOU) 41.64N 73.88W
    2 Day History

    Last Updated: Feb 5 2014, 8:53 am EST
    Wed, 05 Feb 2014 08:53:00 -0500
    Weather: Heavy Snow Freezing Fog
    Temperature: 25.0 °F (-3.9 °C)
    Dewpoint: 21.9 °F (-5.6 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 88 %
    Wind: North at 6.9 MPH (6 KT)

  140. While all the snow is still going on, I wonder what the models are doing for Sunday/Monday. VERY interested to see how that one pans out. I’m sort of hoping it doesn’t so I can see all the mets who called for something epic to squirm a little….

    Oh who are we kidding. BRING ON MORE SNOW!

  141. Looking at radar heavy snow just sitting south of the city,I think that why OS and I area are coming in with high numbers.

      1. I think you’re in MAnsfield right Aiden?

        Still all snow in Walpole but i have a feeling it will turn here as well. Sleet making its way up 95.

  143. Been heavier again here for a bit. Still snowing very hard, but not quite that
    INSANE rate of earlier. Vis at or a bit above 1/4 mile. Not 1/8 or less like it
    was earlier. 😀

  144. I wonder if ……

    As the 2nd low gets its act together and this next burst of heavy precip moves in …

    if …..

    the mild air aloft has made its northern most movement ?

    In other words, if the sleet line moves no further north than it currently is.

    1. Craig Allen On-Air Inc
      Serious situation developing.. All warming and northward push of warming has stopped as 2ndary storm develops off Delaware coast. It is pulling cold air back down.

      I’d say yes!!

    2. And Tom, Look at the Philadelphia radar.

      http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0&MR=1

      What IF that rain down there, slid up here as SNOW.

      If you project it out, it would be close.

        1. OS, even if that batch doesnt get us, it looks like the radar is filling in a bit down there west of Philly. That will certainly get us.

  146. If I had 7 by 9:09 that would be about about 1.75/hour Looks to have slowed a bit. Daughter taking over round 3 of shoveling.

    I don’t consider this really heavy snow. It isn’t fluff but I can just push the shovel back and forth on driveway until I get to the side. That’s with 3-4 inches on the ground.

  147. Wow. Once again the northshore misses the heavy fun stuff!! It seems like some areas west or southwest of Boston might get more snow than in northeastern mass

  149. The sleet we’ve had the last hr is worse than the snow falling, it’s seriously been pouring sleet here

  153. I have a question tk, why does radar have nice blue radar, but it’s been sleeting since 9am? Thank u in advance

    1. Charlie it will be interesting to see if the sleet makes it up this far. When I checked 5 minutes ago here in Norwell at work it was still snowing with visibility between 1/4 and a 1/2 mile. Roughly 6 inches on the ground.

  154. I am not expert here but one thing I have always noticed that always the heaviest bands of snow is always just north of the rain snow sleet mix line. Close to it. In another words perhaps couple miles north of it. Further north where its all snowing, if always a bit lighter. Not just with this storm I am observing this but previous storms as well

    1. I think some of that has to do with the fact that closer to the storm’s center, the precip in general is more intense.

    1. OS, that’s exactly what happened right before we went over to sleet here. Still pelting sleet in northern CT with occasional flakes mixing in.

  160. Hopefully you don’t change over. I had big flakes prior to going over the sleet. Could be some warm air trying to move in aloft. Just because its 32 or under doesn’t mean snow if there is some warm air aloft.

  161. Clearly my prognosis was WRONG. Lots of snow where I live in Boston. Have not measured, but my guess is over 7 inches. No change-over yet, but temp is climbing. Surprised by the holes in precipitation to our north. Also surprised by how much snow fell on the Cape before the change-over.

  162. If it does sleet here I think as soon as low makes it way past us it will flip back to snow, doubt it makes much of an impact from Boston North.

    2. We don’t know which radar site he is using. IF it is NEXARD, they are
      notoriously INACCURATE with rain/snow/mix depictions on that radar.

      The Intellicast radar is MUCH better, but still not 100% accurate.

      So easily could be blue (for snow) yet still be sleeting.

  165. Precip seems to be filling in somewhat down near the NJ, Maryland coast. Is that from the secondary low developing?

    1. You mean this:

      http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0&MR=1

      I’ve been watching that as well. I’m sure it’s in response to coastal low
      development. Just not sure it comes up here.

  167. I’ve also noticed a slight change on wundergrounds radar echos from a mainly easterly motion to more north easterly

  168. Uh-oh. Just read the NWS 9 am updated discussion. They r expecting the sleet line to move between the mass pike as far north as rout 2. I hope that doesn’t happen

    * PTYPE…12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM OKX /EASTERN LONG ISLAND/ SHOWS TONGUE OF MID LEVEL WARMING CENTERED JUST BELOW 700 MB WITH WARMEST TEMP IN THIS LAYER AROUND +2.5. 90 KT SSW JET IN THIS LAYER IS ADVECTING WARM TONGUE NORTHWARD INTO CT AND SOUTH- CENTRAL RI. DUAL POL RADAR INDICATING SLEET AS PRIMARY PTYPE HERE. 06Z NAM SOUNDINGS CAPTURING THIS WELL AND VERIFYING. THUS EXPECTING SLEET/SNOW LINE TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE MASS PIKE AND ROUTE 2. FOR CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA MID LEVEL WARMING WILL RESULT IN A CHANGE TO SLEET /IF NOT ALREADY/ AND THEN A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AS DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THIS AREA BY MIDDAY AND THEREAFTER. CAPE AND ISLANDS MAINLY RAIN BUT CAN FLIP BACK TO SLEET/SNOW THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHEN PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASES.

  174. Great forecasting by everyone, I think now we just get an additional 1-3 inches for the rest of day, it’s back to a much lesser intense snow, I consider it light, thanks everyone!!

  176. Snowing just as hard in walpole now as it was very early this AM. I cant confirm, but i have a feeling the snow has a few sleet pellets mixed in bc its not accumulating as quickly as the conditions would indicate. I dont think it changes to all sleet here, but that line is looming very closely to the south of here

    1. The idea of a historic storm has flown the coop, but a cool 3-6″ storm could be in store for the day sunday. I still think it wants to do something big though. We’ll see.

  183. I don’t think were going to have a blockbuster Sunday Monday time frame. Maybe some snow but nothing impressive as of right now. Of course any shift will make a big difference and plenty of time for this to change.

    1. safe to say you are on the line down there Charlie. It seems like it keeps wavering back and forth right over you

      1. Haha. Sorry and I mean this in the best of humor but I had this picture of the line remaining steady but you, Charlie, driving back and forth under it.

  188. ACE, I asked the same question early this am about the GFS for the weekend. I am now convinced that the models do NOT have a final grip on the storm. OTS is a possibility, but I wouldn’t bet on any track at this point. Models might be struggling on this one.

    1. Yea Longshot, the set-up looks weird to me. This is the 2nd or 3rd legit GFS run anyway, its had a primary southern low go OTS and a strong clipper come over us and sort of develop into something stronger. 12Z hinted at clipper redevelopment tapping into the departing OTS low and forming some sort of norlun trough moisture pipeline? lol, thats the best i can come up with

      1. Euro does not have this feature, rather just the southern low going OTS. Both GFS and euro have the V-Day storminess

  189. This is unbelievable it is still snowing in Manchester, NH but the disk of the sun is shining through. Shut out again, we have about 4 or 5 inches, not the 12 they were calling for or the 14 that NECN has on their updated map on twitter.

  190. GFS has said going, going, almost gone for the Sunday storm. EURO went poof on it yesterday. I’d say it’s almost time to call is quits on that one. (IMO)

    But, man! What a potent storm today! Love it!

  192. Wind just shifted into the NE here.
    Now let’s get the temperature down. Up to 33.6
    That’s too warm!(@*(#(!&@#*(&(!*&#*(!&@#*

  195. They closed macs company at noon. He can stay as long as there are at least two in the lab. He will stay. Makes no sense to close now. Of course they also decided not to serve lunch.

  199. Is it just me or is this ending soon in our area (~12 miles north of Boston)? Most of the news sites has this ending late tonight…as late as 11pm.

  203. Temp is up. I’m in Chinatown. It’s close to 34. Snow is not accumulating as well. Still, much more snow than I anticipated. The air appears to be `drying out’ a bit, which suggests to me that sleet may not mix in at all. There may be a dry slot for a while, then as the cooler air comes in some light snow might start up again by mid afternoon.

  207. Hadi and OS, congratulations indeed. I thought sleet/rain would be a factor, and here it’s a no-show. Providence was a different story, and other places as well, where it sleeted heavily for a time. The sharp cutoff north of Boston surprised me, and also disappointed me. I was hoping the mountains would get a good slug of snow. I don’t think they have, and things are not looking great for them prior to the big February vacation. Natural snow is so much better than the man-made stuff.

    1. Where is that like button……………nice, Joshua! I also hate to see the ski areas miss the storms. It’s been difficult for them for far too long.

    2. Thank you Joshua. Very kind.
      Just interpreted it the way I thought it should be. Have to ge tit right once in while. 😀 😀

  209. Ah, back in from some shoveling and THIS is Marshfield snow.

    5.5 inches for the event, about 8.5 on the ground combined with Monday.

    Snow was wet to begin with and now is loaded on top with sleet, ice pellets and even a bit of cold rain. Cement like.

    2. Snow has picked up again here in Norwell. I noticed a difference in the weight of the snow just in 5 miles from Hingham (fluffier) and Norwell (wetter).

      1. Yes … I wonder if Hingham (ie about a handful of miles south of Boston) was the line where the column never saw that mild intrusion to change it to sleet. We made it into the mild air aloft about 85% of the way into the precip.

  210. Ok everyone 🙂 🙂

    Logan’s got to be say 45-50 inches for the season, its been plenty cold.

    Lets all hope this one was it. Let the weekend event continue to peel away, let the Valentine’s Day storm go bye-bye.

    2 weeks to about 11 hrs of daylight, a nearly 40 max sun angle at solar noon ……

    Its time !! Time to thaw out, begin to warm up and awaken from a good, strong winter.

    Whose with me on this sentiment ??? Please 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. i am certainly NOT!!! all of feb and march good size nor easters , bunch of snow, no THAW!!! till april 😉 then skip the spring weather and go right to summer

    2. I am with you Tom. People seem to forget the last month of Fall is snow…so let the last month of winter be Spring.

    3. Tom…I hear you and will drink the kool aid!!

      I always think of Winter as a horse race…right now we are nearing the end of the back stretch and ready to start our run into the final turn and then the home stretch.

    4. Tom I see your point, it can be as cold and snowy as it wants, with the sun angle is gaining rapidly, for me it’s usually not like Dec/Jan, the days r much shorter in dec/jan than feb hence it makes it more and more tolerable

    5. You and I might be alone on this, but I am with you! It’s all Norman Rockwell from your picture window, and the kids get a day off, hooray, but for adults trying to get to work and keep your property safe, it’s just a hassle. I’m ready for spring, for sure!

  211. My forecast almost verified perfectly. I was perhaps an inch or two shy conservative. Meaningful snow is over. I was always more concerned with rapid progression of storm more so than mixing.

      1. I could have increased the numbers slightly in some locations but thank you:) It’s too bad these storms always tend to be brief.

    1. Uggh … Cold drizzle … Flakes are beginning to fly here again, but they’re quite large which suggests a possible change-over is imminent. We’ll see. I’m at my office on Kneeland Street on the 11th floor, facing east. On a sunny day I can see the water and the planes landing at Logan.

  214. Tom, while I’m not a spring person (I always miss winter and fall), I can empathize. My ex-wife could not take the long winters. She got cold very easily (low blood pressure; mine is high, so I’m never cold) and couldn’t wait for spring. I understood where she was coming from.

    I’m afraid, however, that spring is still far away. We’ll sense it’s coming in the increased daylight hours. But, the next few weeks look to be quite cold and potentially snowy.

  215. Quick burst of snow has now vanished. Looking at the radar loop I do think more snow is coming. Not heavy, though. Probably by mid afternoon.

  219. Back to sleet, ended up with 9.0 in na, 8.3 in Plainville, and 8.7 in Wrentham. A little underestimated but all and all not bad 🙂

  220. Coming down now. Flakes are smaller. Sheets of snow. More at a slant before, which indicates a pick up of wind.

    1. Like I said, I may have waited too long to measure. Once that temp got up
      to 34, it could easily have compacted an inch or so.

      😀

    2. C’mon Arod, I kindly asked that it be swept out to sea. If my kids have more snow days they may be going until July!

  224. I wouldn’t give up on that late weekend storm threat either. As I always say when you have low pressure on the east coast it needs to be watched. Interesting the NAO is to the same position with that late weekend storm threat that was for the blizzard last year. I am not saying a blizzard and I think the chance of a blockbuster are very low but I find it interesting. I do think there is some snowfall with a few inches.

      1. Back to all snow again … bizarre … I’m supposed to be working, but keep reporting on weather. Shows you all what a weather-nut I’ve become.

      1. There was definitely sleet mixed in 10 minutes ago. The `rain’ I thought I saw was drizzle. But now, it’s snowing again and at a good clip, with some sleet mixed in. Please note, I’m facing east. I know that sounds trivial. But on my walk home to the B Bay (1 mile from here) I see weather changes all the time. Boston is not SF in terms of micro climates, but it comes close at times.

    1. Welcome to Reykjavik, Iceland. They have sleet all the time. And that includes spring, sometimes even in summer, and definitely in fall.

  228. SNOW was coming down in buckets a moment ago, then lightened up, but still snowing.
    It had stopped for about 2 hours.

  229. I hope John is doing okay with his work today. I assume the snow up his way is a bit lighter but it is truly like cement down here.

  230. Temperature slowly coming down here. Was up to 34.2, now down to 33.4
    Looks like another batch of snow ready to move in. Hope it is snow and not sleet. 😀

  232. If the 9.7″ at Logan holds, their total so far would be 43.2″. Normal = 43.7″.

    It will be interesting if an additional 0.5″ could be squeezed out before the storm pulls away for good. 🙂

  233. Just shoveled off the 2nd floor deck.
    It was a sleet/snow mix, that has gone back to mostly snow now. 😀

    Damn, it did sleet in Boston, BUT not for long. 😀

  234. According to Harvey, the Sun/Mon storm might not get its act together. Still a few days away to be totally sure.

  236. btw, the Valentines Day storm looks like it might just be real. We shall see.

    Weekend storm, well not so much. I suppose there is a little time to see.

  239. 1 last batch of snow/sleet between 3:30-4:30, and that’s about it, early guess on Sundays event, 2-4 in Boston 3-6 south 1-3 north

  243. I have a sneaking suspicion the Sunday’s storm will be more than is advertised by the models at this point. It looks like the Northern and southern stream energy never quite connect, but both Euro and GFS show something try to get going off the NJ coast from the northern energy.

    1. Yes, and once the atmosphere settles down from this event, perhaps it
      will be more clear. I wouldn’t totally dismiss it just yet. It may not be, but
      too early to let it go.

  244. I don’t models have a complete handle for Sunday. They had it, lost it and then it sort of drifted back. Maybe a better handle on it tomorrow.

  246. I was just reading through the comments. I’m with you Tom–I’ve had quite enough of this winter and I’m not even sure why. Maybe it’s because I dropped my hairdryer out in the ocean a few weeks back when I was trying to blow the snow out of here. I’m going to go out and get it this weekend and I’ll try to blow the weekend storm out of here. I’m waving the white flag (but I guess no one can see it). Will it ever stop snowing today?

    1. I am with you. Hate storms like this…end already. every time I clean up, it’s back…even when the radar show nothing it’s still snowing.

  249. Did round 3 of shoveling and only got the end of the driveway done enough for Mac to pull his car off the street. It’s now like cement and my back didn’t think I should continue. The upside is that Mac arrives first. SIL – second and if he wants to park off the street…………see where I’m going with this 😉

  262. Snowing here in Norwell again..went from snow to sleet around 2 then snizzle around 3 and now snow about a half hour ago. A light coating over the slickness that passes for sidewalks in my office complex.

  263. Still snowing decently here in JP.

    Everything well covered again, enough so I’ll have to do some more cleaning
    after dinner. 😀

    Temperature is down to 31.8 so I’ll have to lay down some salt as well. 😀

  264. 18Z GFS is cooking. For the weekend, the upper winds just way too flat and thus
    takes a weak coastal and zips it ots way South of us.

    Some sort of clipper system lurking to our NW. We’ll see if it does anything with that.

  265. BRIEF check in.
    Shoveling is 3/4 done but the rest is being done tomorrow afternoon. Since it’s not going to melt-freeze between now and then and the hardest part is DONE this should be easy. We are at 12 and counting in Woburn. My guess was 9.5 inches. If you notice, the entire storm’s precip. profile was displaced about 20-30 miles to the SOUTH. That made a significant difference in the amount of snow that fell and the amount of mixing as well. We did mix with sleet briefly here then had some GRAUPEL! 😀

    One more batch of borderline moderate snow coming through now. I’ll have a total in a while but I have to be on the road for a little while again.

  266. Here in Quincy it has continued to come down, though it seemed for a while like it was raining. There has been little accumulation since about 3 pm; maybe an inch. But motion on the radar looks like we are going to get the back end of the storm, so there will be more to shovel. I’ve already been out twice.

    On another topic, our friends who were supposed to be heading to St. Maarten via JFK this morning decided on the spur of the moment to leave a day early despite having no place to stay that night. It all worked out. They ended up with a rental car and they were able to add a day to their pre-arranged housing. The flights they would have been on this morning… the first flight from BOS-JFK was canceled, the second flight from JFK-SXM was three hours late. No matter how much you love snow, it’s better on the beach, under palm trees…

  268. The weekend event may prove more significant than models are depicting. Give it another 24-48 hours for models to digest.

      1. I feel the upper levels will churn the southern stream just enough to the north to merge with the clipper approaching from our northwest in time to produce a more significant impact on southern new england. Not to mention, the trend has been for a closer pass this winter than models suggest. I’m not saying a blockbuster is going to occur, however, the “potential” is stronger than likely realized.

        1. I respectable disagree, I believe the southern energy is moving to fast, I think 2-4, 3-6 is a good bet, we shall see 🙂

    2. Dave Epstein just said essentially the same thing about the weekend storm on the radio. The models apparently didn’t get a handle on Monday’s snow until the last minute… this storm may work out the same.

  270. What a storm, snowed 6 inches between 5-9am, then changed to sleet from 9am-11am flipping back and forth between snow and a raining sleet, then a lull for an hour, then from noonish to 3pm back to a sleetstorm accumulating about a quarter of an inch briefly ending as a period of snow, northern Bristol western Norfolk counties received 9-10 inches w/ a quarter inch of sleet, nothing going on now. 🙂

  271. Can’t get an accurate measurement since I wasn’t able to measure before some settling and some sleet. With settling i measured about 9″ so i suspect it may have been an inch or 2 more. Pretty consistent with surrounding areas. NWS was spot on with the exception of some expected higher totals in northern MA

  278. I probably got a bit too cute trying to be hyper-local with my accumulations, as I had 8-10 Boston and points North, 5-8 Boston Points South, 9-12 Boston west 495/RT2 and Worcester County, 4-7 Providence, Taunton area. I try to stay away from broad ranges like 6-12″ but that probably would have sufficed well here. BOS at 10″, ORH at 11″ PVD at 6″ CEF at 9″ BDL at 9″ so a 6-12 would have done good region wide metro areas all the way down to a Providence Taunton Line. Biggest error was Hartford area which got hammered in the am hours with 2″ per hour snow that took a while to turn to sleet. My sneaky accumulation jackpot of northwest RI, ended up being about 10 miles away in the Uxbridge, Douglas area of Southern Worcester County.

    Next system is all going to be about whether the southern low, which will develop, can get sucked up by the northern trough. If it does you get a decent storm, if not light snow from the northern energy will be it. I don’t see a top 5 all timer, but outside of that, anything is possible right now.

          1. Doesn’t appear to be drying up…guess I will wait an see! Getting closer…

            Plows keep coming by pushing nothing as the street has been cleared like 90 times.

    1. Until we had the sleet it was fluffier than I expected also. Even after sleet, except cod end of driveway, it wasn’t bad at all

      1. Yeah, I was expecting a little worse. What’s nice is it doesn’t even feel that cold out. Goes to show you how cold it’s been when we’ve acclimated to 21f being a mild evening.

          1. Yeah O.S.

            Impressive that Boston is not that far behind Worcester in the snow total for the year. The snows this year have followed the Mass Pike + – West to East it seems.

  282. Meant to comment on the snow…after being told all week that this would be heavy back breaking snow I was happy to see it was more fluffy than wet…not too heavy at all.

    1. At least it isn’t heavy rain. I know you and I would not want that! Going to use the roof rake tomorrow.

      1. HA true. I raked tonight…was still snowing and it got a decent dusting on what I raked but I am not touching that.

  283. All in all a very nice storm. I was very pleased and I am a tough customer to please.
    I think it was the 2-3 inch per hour snow rates for a few hours. That was truly incredible!! You just don’t see that intensity around here very often.

    I had to go out a removed another inch of crap from everything. Sure looks like
    we ended up with about 11 or perhaps more.

    Another batch of snow on our doorsteps. I presume from the residual energy left from
    the Primary storm?

    I have a BAD feeling about Sunday. We shall see. 😀

            1. Looking at a cloud as a person’s mouth and said person spitting, except out comes snow????

              I DUNNO. 😀 😀 😀

          1. Why? If I knew those rates were coming, I’d set an alarm clock just to get up and see it with my
            own eyes. No excuse for a weather geek! 😀

  284. Charlie in response to your point earlier about the Sunday storm, when do you ever forecast a storm that is more than a couple inches 🙂

    Not really sure what to think of Sunday I think we get something just unsure if the southern energy can get pulled in. We shall see!!

  286. 1. i hit the 12 inch mark I was not messed with in this storm.
    2 I am waiting to say anything about this weekends system,
    *let the models get a grip of them selfs in the next 48 hours before calling anything off.
    * Even though it goes to the south we get a light to moderate snowfall and if it develops a tad faster we could get a good amount of snow
    * After sunday/monday time frame. 20s for highs again. and another system to watch
    Also i think this is the longest sledding trail i have made. and the snow was so powdery. 🙂

    1. It’s been a bad yr, already above average, people r trying to get 1st class tix south, my wife is ready to kill me, she’s from the southern Midwest 🙂

      1. We have a fair amount of friends who go south for winter. It’s been bad there according to them. Seems to make more sense to just enjoy what is

        1. The South has been worse, compared to average, than we have been up here. And I agree with you. Try to enjoy what you have, or if you can’t do that, relocate. 🙂 (For more, see below).

    3. I found it to be a very beautiful snow tonight. Perfect flakes like a coating of feathers atop everything else.

      If snow is population control then it’s keeping me here. I love all of the weather we get, from raw grey days in early Spring to HHH of Summer to days like today to a frigid Arctic blast. It’s variety you don’t see in many places. And it’s for me.

      1. 40 something inches is enough, anymore is becoming intolerable, on this weather blog, sure, but this is the exception as to the rule, New England loses so many people bc of the weather, and that’s sad, just saying, most r sick of the snow 🙂

        1. It’s the climate of the region.
          We are arrogant to feel we are somehow being wronged because there has been “too much snow”.

          Are we going to change the weather to keep people from moving? The population around my area is going up and has gone up significantly in the last 25 years.

          Besides if people really can’t handle this kind of weather, why would they live here?

          The weather is not going to change for anybody, but we do have the option to change where we are.

          40 inches? Boston’s average snow for a season is 43+. The suburbs significantly more. That’s average. If it’s that intolerable, then it’s time to move. 🙂

  293. That area sure didn’t dry up! Earlier I could see to Billerica from Mount Zion in West Woburn and now I can only see to BURLINGTON! What a blizzard! 😉

    Actually we’ve had a whole additional coating of snow. But I believe there was more snow at my house on Woods Hill than there has been here on the hill on the west side of town (about 1 inch difference).

  294. I wasn’t in north Attleboro, sorry I was in Bellingham and briefly a came down very hard, maybe not quite a white out, but certainly caught me off guard 🙂 goodnight

  295. Euro and GFS still showing Sun-Mon going south and east.

    Valentine’s Day might still see something. Yes, it is far away.

  296. Where were you 36 years ago today ……

    Myself, getting home from school about 1-2 hrs late.

    Waking up the next day to an unbelievable amount of snow and a few days later, walking to the grocery store with my father …….no cars on the road …..pulling the sled along to bring some groceries back home.

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