Small, Medium, Large?

558 Comments

3:16PM

Time for a quick update!

Admittedly, today’s snow is a little more “impressive” than I thought it would be. Not that it’s a big storm, it’s a small one, resulting from a wave of low pressure passing pretty far south of southern New England on an old frontal boundary, but as I have often said in a pattern like this, “the atmosphere wants to snow”, so it did – from a solid coating north of Boston to up to a few inches to the south. This event will be winding down by early evening as the low pressure wave moves away, and as was noted in the previous forecast, will be followed by a chilly/dry Tuesday and another storm Wednesday. Not a whole lot has changed on my outlook for the Wednesday system. I expected to be a medium sized winter storm across most of the region, with sleet and rain becoming involved at least near the South Coast, and sleet possibly all the way up into the Boston area as some warmer air tries to come in aloft. But for most of the Boston area northward, it’ll be a snow event, not light and fluffy but not too wet either (somewhere in the middle), with 4+ inches for most areas just south of to around Boston, a little less toward the South Coast, and 6+ inches for most areas further north and west of Boston. I’ll refine this numbers in comments below and on the Facebook page, and in the next update here later tonight or early tomorrow. Beyond Wednesday’s storm will be a couple of cold and dry days, then we look to the weekend for the next storm threat. With this potential event being 5 to 6 days away from beginning, there is still plenty of uncertainty with its eventual impact on the region, but suffice it to say for now that this system will probably be of the large winter storm variety wherever it does impact. Will it be just the Mid Atlantic, or include New England as well? Time will tell, so stay tuned…

Oh and by the way, Boston tied a record high at 55 yesterday, so that shows you how quick we can go from a warm-up right back to winter weather.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON: Cloudy with snow, ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION less than 1 inch north of Boston, 1-2 inches from Boston south with a spot 3 inch amount possible in some areas. Temperatures steady upper 20s to lower 30s. Wind light N.

TONIGHT: Slow clearing. Lows upper 10s to lower 20s. Wind NW 5-10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind variable around 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 20-25. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Snow north and west of Boston, snow may mix with sleet immediate Boston area, snow and sleet to the south except some rain South Coast. Potential snow accumulation of 6 inches or more north and west of  Boston, 4 inches or more Boston area southwestward to northern RI, and under 4 inches closer to the South Coast.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 30.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 14. High 28.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 11. High 30.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 20. High 30.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 20. High 30.

558 thoughts on “Small, Medium, Large?”

  3. NOTE: Forecast above for the rest of today is additional accumulation (not including what has already fallen).

  5. I know I asked this tk and you told me after 1am for boston on Wednesday morning. Is that the same or now getting a tad closer is the start and finish time somewhat clearer.

    1. For the city itself. I say first flakes by 3AM, last accumulating flakes about 5PM, heaviest 6 hour snow 8AM-2PM.

    1. I had one of those primitive Radio Shack computers. But last night, the 1980s came and took it away…………………

    1. Good luck. I should have caught this one a bit better. Ignored a few hints last night.

      I’ll nail the next one. 🙂

      1. I kept seeing also on models but ignored, I use your knowledge as well as many bloggers on here, thanks a lot lol 🙂

        1. As a forecaster, it’s like being in a candy store with 64 containers of trying to figure out which to choose. As noted on the previous blog, there is almost too much technology. There are too many models. This is why I adopted the simplistic style that I use. It works for me – MOST of the time. But when it goes out the window, it can really go. At least today, it’s not a major storm system. Everything ended up 40 miles further north than I expected, and we generated snow where I expected it to barely happen. It “wants to snow” here. Bernie Rayno said a few weeks back that it just wants to snow in southern New England this season, and it’s true. It doesn’t mean every cloud that passes by us is gonna dump a foot of snow, but it’s snowing often and in some cases when it looks like it should not happen. But as frustrating as it can be to forecast it, the unpredictability is one of the reason I love doing this.

    1. My first guess for Logan is between 5 and 6. Take a sleet mix away, and it will be more. NWS just posted a map and Logan is 6-8 while the city itself is 8-10.

  10. Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 31.
    Saturday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
    Sunday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
    Sunday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
    Monday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31.

    1. Thanks Ace.

      Looks reasonable to me. Perhaps under done by a hair for SW sections of
      Boston and SW of City.

      1. Yea, i was actually thinking NWS would be lower considering the lower end numbers being talked about on here today

  15. Not quite an inch yet in Walpole. Was never anything more than a light snow here. The northern part of the snow hole must have clipped the area 😉 Snowing at a good clip right now though. I wonder how long this lasts.

  16. Today’s event is probably near 3 inches now …. the first couple inches were a very wet snow, the last hour or two, ever so slightly more dry.

      1. I’m not sure. We did have a surface flow off the water, but the temp difference btwn 850 and the ocean werent very big.

        So, probably not …. must have just made it into the heavier precip from the storm.

      2. Not Tom, but I don’t think so.

        Temperature differential between Air temp and Sea surface temperature and differential between sea surface temp and
        850MB temp not great enough. Just my thoughts.

  18. We still haven’t gotten today right, nowcasting and all. I can’t imagine where we will be on Weds and Mon. 🙂 🙂

    1. Past or present performance does not guarantee future results. 🙂

      Each system is its own animal. 🙂

      1. Very true, but as you said it wants to snow even when you think it doesn’t. It is difficult. I am glad not to be the person who makes the decisions on whether a school should close.

        1. But if I pull out the stops and abandon my conservative style and call for the BIG ONE on the weekend you just know it’ll end up going OTS! 😛

          1. Prefer the conservative style. I always have. No doubt, there are probably TV Mets already calling for Armageddon come Sun-Mon.

  20. Still snowing in Plymouth and the plows are out. We have about three inches of heavy wet snow and I have to say it does look pretty.

  23. My son and I heading out to Hanover, hope roads not that bad. I need to add some weight to the bed because it slides alot.

    1. Hahahahahaha. It took me a while to figure you meant truck bed. Sorry. Still in computer hell so in addition to being brain dead everything amuses me 🙂

  25. Can’t imgine where the TV mets will be tonight when it comes to playing up the next two storms. As I said above, they’ll announce Armageddon at a minimum.

  26. Hadi, I’m curious where u saw we play the redskins this yr, I just saw all the teams we play in 14-15 season, didn’t see the redskins

  33. While watching the weather forecast tonight, i realized i miss the old weather maps. The ones that show the big L off the coast with the picture of the snow flakes paired in where it was going to snow

  35. Regardless of what I or anyone thinks about the quality of TWC, one thing that I think is that they have taken a few steps backwards on both their graphics and the presentation of the local forecast. It’s unwatchable.

    The late 1980s to early 1990s saw TWC’s graphics at their finest and it’s been downhill since.

    1. Agreed 100% Brutal, I stopped watching years ago. I prefer the National Weather Service site for graphics, especially during the hurricane season.

      1. I find theirs likeable.

        Something I will YouTube some classic TWC just to “remember when”. 🙂

        I have some old VHS tapes (needing to be transferred) that have some of the old TWC special programming on them.

  36. Nightly News saying we will be measuring in feet for the Sunday/Monday storm.

    It’s only Monday! A full week before it’s supposed to happen! Oy.

    2. We know the drill…whenever there is talk of a huge storm a week out it usually weakens, goes out to sea, or changes to rain. I won’t take any of the talk seriously until at least Friday.

    3. They are echoing what another meteorologist on the East Coast said sometime earlier today.

      Let them call for feet of snow 6 days in advance. People are already so confused with poorly presented information on the web and thru the media that it’s pretty much a lost cause at this point.

      Might as well not give snowfall ranges anymore either, they will automatically take the top number and become convinced that it will already have fallen 5 minutes into the storm, then wonder where it is.

      Media is failing miserably when it comes to educating the public on what they are being shown.

      1. TWC had an article about fact or rumor regarding the weekend storm on their website. Of course it was everything we all know but they seemed to want to educate before declaring armageddon.

  41. “Calling for feet of snow” this weekend … That’s over-hype and irresponsible at this point in time. The storm this weekend has all kinds of uncertainty attached to it. Most importantly, a very marginal temperature profile. We will likely see a lot of precipitation, and perhaps some folks in the interior will see a lot of snow, but I think the vast majority of folks will be dealing with manageable amounts of snow, and many – especially south of NYC – not any snow at all. We appear to be in a pattern conducive to storminess, but given the conditions/track have to be just right in order for the snow to fall heavily in the Boston area. I have a hunch that both Wednesday and this weekend (maybe more so this weekend) mixing and marginal temperatures will play a role in limiting major snow amounts at the coast, and probably out to 128.

    2. For ONCE I would love it did…we seem to be told minimal, then get more…I’d love it if they call for feet and we get a few inches. Life rarely works that way though. I’m ready for Spring. If I have to clean my driveway and roof again I am liable to go crazy 🙂

    4. Will you please stop with this marginal temperature nonsense. It will NOT play a role. The ocean is cold enough. As long as it is not really mild (and it won’t be), it is the air above that we need be concerned with and that looks good. 😀 😀

      It will snow and accumulate with no problems.

  42. BZ has a VERY widespread area of 6-12.” This would be the first true widespread storm of the winter IMO.

    1. They had Boston, the coast and south coast more in the 3-6″ range and less on the Cape, and like you said a HUGE 6-12″ area.

      1. I like how BZ portrays the coastline. No other stations do that. I dont think the mix/rain line makes it any more than 10 or so miles from the immediate coastline. Waters are cold and winds wont be strong.

    1. Agreed. The key phrase is “where it stays all snow.” You’ll get a nice slug of snow, JJ. Happy for you. Also, as AceMaster pointed out, this storm is impacting all of SNE in some shape or form, CNE, too, and even a small part of NNE. That makes this an important storm for ski country. My guess is most resorts do see at least 6 inches from this event, and possibly more this weekend. It will likely be cold enough across virtually all of NE’s interior (I’ll arbitrarily define this as at least 30 miles from the coast) for the storms (as currently projected) to remain all snow. I am very doubtful the coast (and places near the coast) will be as lucky this time around. We shall see. It’s a waiting game, as the models are just that … models or simulations of reality, not the real thing.

  44. Joshua got 3 inches of heavy wet snow today. I am thinking at least 6 inches where I am for the mid week storm. Next storm will be reverse here in CT where today it was more at the shore next time more inland.

    1. True, but at least they’re getting something. My guess is the White Mountains get over 6 inches. It’s not a lot, but I’m hoping this weekend’s storm is at least a bonanza for ski country.

  46. I agree Joshua, calling for feet, irresponsible, how about saying that the potential of a major snowstorm

    1. Agreed. “Potential” is the correct word. That means people will stay tuned and pay attention, but do not have to be alarmed. In fact, if ratings are what they’re worried about, saying a storm is potentially going to be a powerful nor’easter will get viewers’ attention. They’ll stay tuned. On the other hand, telling the viewer that the storm will be measured in feet causes undue concern at this stage.

    2. No way Charlie, here’s how it should be reported.

      So let’s bring in our chief hypologist … I mean meteorologist, Longshot.
      “Hi folks here are some of the totals we got today:
      EAST SANDWICH 5.0
      NEW BEDFORD 5.0
      FAIRHAVEN 5.0
      BOURNE 4.5

      As you can see from the totals some areas got a lot more than expected.

      The next storm which has a lot of Gulf moisture behind could easily bring us 6-12″ and maybe higher in elevated areas. Of course if the storm tilts right, expands to the left, does a somersault over the Benchmark and then runs into some blocking and decides to bomb out, well then we could be looking at much bigger numbers. I don’t think that will happen, but you never know.

      And that’s followed by another event starting Sunday which we might be measuring in feet. It’s too early to know how big of a monster this one will be, but if you add up all these storms, some areas could be looking at 3 feet or more … so stay tuned and we will keep you updated as the week goes by.”

      Sally Newscaster: “Longshot, did you say 3′ or more?”
      Longshot: “It’s possible. Of course it’s too soon to tell, but some of the models are forecasting a significant event and this is New England so you never know. Like I said, just stay tuned and we will let you know whether you’ll need a ruler or a yardstick to measure that snow.”
      Sally Newscaster: “Wow, 3’ feet or maybe more. Actually when I added up everything you said I got almost 5’ so I guess we should all keep track of this week’s storms.”
      Longshot: “Well I saw one outlier model that calls for 6’ of snow with these next two events but I am going to discount that one.”
      Sally Newscaster: “Well if you add that 6’ to the 3+’ we already got, we’ll be at 10’ of snow by Monday night. Thanks for tuning in everyone.”

      1. Too Funny!
        I think we better hurry up and get that”French Toast Alert” out there!! HA 🙂 🙂 🙂

  50. I would expect these watches do be upgraded to warnings tomorrow as at least 6 inches looks like a good bet where it stays all snow.

    3. My 2 favorite HM forecasts are ….

      1) Isaac’s going east of FL …… Actual landfall, west of New Orleans

      And

      2) with Sandy, the tropical system was headed OTS and the upper low coming in from the west was going to form a nasty noreaster …… And well, we know how that turned out.

      I simply dont watch or read him, cant take him seriously.

    3. Yeah, NAM juiced up a bit on this run. This storm is zipping right along. Pretty impressive print for something so fast. It’s gonna come down hard and fast.

  55. NAM wants to keep heavier snowfall totals north of CT UGH!
    Latest NWS out of Upton has me in the 8-10 range. I am not buying the NAM. I think a general 6-10 inches in the all snow areas.

      1. Retrac I am in Watertown, CT. The NAM has my area in the 5.5 inches. I think the 18z GFS snow totals will be what happens with this storm system.

  56. I am just not seeing mixing in Boston maybe sleet for a short time but temp profiles look fine to me. Widespread 6-12 is a good call less amounts south of Randolph.

  57. Good evening. I didn’t see a Hadi report. I just came in and measured before
    I came in the house. 2.5 inches here in JP. They actually PLOWED the streets in
    my neighborhood, including my street. 😀 😀

  59. We’re going to have to have some incredibly heavy snow to reach the totals that some forecasts indicate from this upcoming one.

    And nobody has mentioned this yet, but we may have to watch for the ‘dreaded dry slot’ which may become a player shortly after noontime for a large portion of SNE.

  60. Wednesdays storm will do what it’s gona do, but talking about Sundays storm is crazy especially if they put amounts on it a week out.

        1. Was simply posting that a potent storm is expected.
          IMPOSSIBLE to know the exact track 6-7 days in advance. 😀

      1. From what I have seen, this model tends to have a “Western” bias in the placement of systems. We shall see. 😀

  62. I am not calling for 12 inches John. Not sure why you been the at you have been lately. You are the one all winter calling for big storms and now every storm you are saying we are overdoing it.

    I could care less how much it snows and I am just tired of the back forth saying rain, snow mix etc… I will enjoy it no matter what.

  63. Didn’t say you were hadi. I was kidding saying the highest amount would be at your house because you always think the high number will verify not the low end, that’s how I see all of your posts.

  64. Hadi also said every storm the nam is overdoing it, not anybody here. Tk has said with every storm that we have had the nam over amps them and I agree.

  65. I have gone low on occasion. I know Vicki keeps track of all our guesses. Most of this winter we have verified on the higher end.

    1. It doesn’t matter hadi. I’ll go with 6.5 boston or tad lower. Not only may it mix nod tk is saying possibly dry slot. To me I could care less because I’m counting the days till winter is done. I’ve had enough of the cold and snow.

    1. Yes, I think they have been. Doesn’t mean they will this time, but I think
      that the Euro and GFS have a decent handle on this one and the NAM is coming
      on board as well. 😀 😀

        1. You are free to do that. 🙂

          I just talked to a long time colleague and he says 6 for Boston.

  68. For John.

    From NWS office in Taunton less than an hour ago:

    MAY EVEN SEE A CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME ALONG THE S COAST. EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN ALL SNOW FROM JUST S OF BOSTON TO NEAR NW CT…WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST.

    EXCELLENT INFLOW OF MOISTURE UP THE COAST WITH QPF
    AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE AROUND AN INCH TOTAL.

    1. From Upton:

      THE LOW WILL BE DEEPENING AND ALOFT THE AREA WILL BE IN
      THE BEST POSITION FOR POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND THE UPPER LEVEL JET NEAR 250MB WILL BE STRENGTHENING AND EVEN PICKING UP MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC IN ADDITION TO ALREADY HAVING PICKED UP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.

      THE MODELS ARE OUTPUTTING AROUND AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT STORM TOTAL.

  69. Why is Eric the only met keeping Boston out of the 6-12 inch range??

    What model is he using that shows that much mixing?

      1. Quoting Hadi but substituting: “Just because NWS says it doesn’t mean it’s going to be correct.” 😉

        1. Bingo – the Feds are known to drop the ball a few times a winter.. kind of like Wes vs. the Giants in the SB a few years ago.

        2. Yes, that is true. Hey I’m the first to Blast them
          when they say/do something silly. This time around,
          I think they are on target. We shall see. 😀

          Btw, Upton agrees with them. Don’t know IF they collaborated or came to the same conclusions on their own???? 😀

    1. Looks like it is expecting WET stuff along the coast, keeping totals down a bit.

      SREF has ratios around 10:1 but it does creep down later in storm:

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014020321/SREF_snowfall_ratio__f039.gif

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014020321/SREF_snowfall_ratio__f042.gif

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014020321/SREF_snowfall_ratio__f048.gif

      BUT MOST of the snow will have fallen by the time the ratio slips under
      10:1

  71. I posted earlier in day around 8.2 for Logan and sticking with numbers. Gfs and nam are a tad warmer so ratios are not great. Euro is colder. It will be fun either way.

  73. Final total from today’s storm at Logan = 1.6″

    Total 2013-14 Logan snowfall so far = 35.1″

    Logan normal = 43.7″

      1. Actually that run, as is, still produces very decent snow. The snowmap would probably be under-done in that case. The model would miss picking up on ocean enhancement and potential banding.

  75. Observations from various posts.

    OS, all the maps you posted for the weekend seem to show a low qpf.

    If you look closely at Eric Fisher’s snow map for Wednesday, you will see that he predicting lower amounts in in Boston and along the coast … those areas are not in the 6-12″ range.

  77. The only issue holding down snow is the warming and how far north it gets. Euro qpf is even higher at this point and if it’s all snow 12+ is very possible.

  79. Nws will be watching model trends very closely today to see exactly how warm they get. Euro is colder vs nam/gfs.

  81. Hadi, not sure which storm you are discussing in which post.

    I saw your comment about the Euro for Sunday … just has it further east today and as always it will swing back.

    1. 1.24 is for tonight.

      I was just saying the euro has the weekend storm a miss. But I agree it’s just losing it for the time being. Gfs has a monster pounding us 🙂

  82. 06 z GFS seems to have a bomb for Sun-Mon … not sure I buy into that, probably because I don’t want to.

  83. Hadi, I don’t know enough about the subject … but is there a possible formation of a secondary low for Sunday … yes, I know it’s always possible, but what I am asking is whether that’s what models are calling for.

  84. Damn the GFS has been consistent with this weekend. Hard to ignore and I’m trying not to get too excited.

    Slow mover too. Has the look of maybe a top ten.

  85. In the spirit of true hypeology, I want to warn all of you of a block buster for Valentine’s evening. 🙂 I am working on my skills so I can become a TV met. 🙂

  86. Tv stations are really buying UTI mixing into Boston. Channel 5 has 5-9.

    Again I just don’t think the mix line makes it here.

    1. Agree Hadi.

      Even if we take the slightly warmer NAM, it calls for 3mm qpf of sleet and 20mm
      of qpf as snow. We throw that out and GFS and EURO have ALL snow.

      What are they using?????????????????

  87. Good Morning.

    One thing I want to say immediately and that concerns the Euro.

    The CMS and then the Euro upped it’s qpf for tomorrow a few days ago.
    It was posted here that it was a RED FLAG.

    Guess what, the Euro’s qpf has increased with every single run since then.
    Can that be totally ignored?

    This system for tomorrow has GOM moisture in it.

    Right now, all systems appear to be GO.

    Latest qpf figures for tomorrow:

    Euro (from Hadi): 1.24
    NAM: .9
    GFS: .83
    CMC: .83

    The Euro looks to be a bit of an Outlier, however I would not totally discount it.

    The EUro was the FIRST to be onto yesterday’s snow and accurately predicted it.

    Even we blend them, let’s call it one inch. Still nice.

    ENJOY!

  88. 06Z GFS snow map for Wednesday:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014020406&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=054

    06Z NAM snow map for tomorrow:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014020406&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=054

    CMC accumulation qpf map

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&type=SN&hi=000&hf=108&lang=en&map=na

    UKMET accumulation qpf map

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&type=SN&hi=000&hf=108&lang=en&map=na

  91. Snow Camp is now fully operational, no mixing (precip) allowed.

    What’s the over/under for at least 20 public school cancellations for tomorrow? Let’s start the line at 5:00PM, we know some folks like to get their school system on the evening news.

  92. And finally, I can’t get ready for work without posting the BOMBORAMA for 2/9-2/10
    compliments of the GFS:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014020406&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=150

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014020406&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=153

    Snowmap for it:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014020406&time=72&var=ASNOWI&hour=165

    And peak WInds:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014020406&time=72&var=GUSTM&hour=153

    We could probably use the “B” word IF and I say IF this were ever to verify

  93. Still think a general 6-10 inches in the all snow areas tomorrow with of course some locally higher amounts where the heavy bands setup shop. Both commutes tomorrow not looking good.
    As far as the next storm threat it is rare that when a big storm is forecasted a week or more out that it happens. I think we get something with that storm but a blockbuster I am not sold on.

    1. I dunno, if everything materializes Old Salty there could be two to three feet in aggregate over the next 16 days. I like that map.

    2. Thank you OS for posting all the data! It’s certainly interesting!!!
      Just maybe, B.B. was on to something when he posted 18″ when all said and done. If the totals above are true… Oh, Boy! Look out 🙂
      Here’s to hoping!!! 🙂

  96. Here is an INTERESTING DISCUSSION from the Taunton NWS office:

    OVERALL A VERY JUICY SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL TAP INTO THE GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE RESULTING IN QPF AMOUNTS NEARING 1 INCH. BECAUSE THE THERMAL PROFILES ARE CLOSER TO THE UPPER 20S…THIS WILL BE A HEAVIER WET SNOW COMPARED TO THE DRY FLUFFY STUFF WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING. THEREFORE BELIEVE THE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE NEAR 10:1.
    EXPECT SNOW FALL RATES TO BE NEAR AN INCH TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE ON WEDNESDAY AS MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME MID-LEVEL FORCING…IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SYNOPTIC FORCING. STILL TOEARLY TO PINPOINT WHERE A POSSIBLE SNOW BANDS WILL SET UP…BUTTHESE BANDS WILL REDUCE VSBYS AND ALLOWING FOR A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOW TO FALL QUICKLY. OVERALL EXPECT A GENERAL 9-12 INCHES OF SNOW WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 14 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

  98. OS, I knew I was on the money. Our entire blog focus should be on this guaranteed Vday blockbuster. 🙂

    1. I can pretty much guarantee there will be something. My sister in law is due to visit that weekend. So far every times she has planned to do so since Sandy, we have had a storm.

  99. I hope the sun does its thing today on the mid South Shore, because there’s already 3-4 inches of wet snow clinging to the trees ………

    and another 5-8 inches of cement (on the mid South shore) and some will be in the dark by tomorrow evening.

  100. I’m glad to see the EURO offering any kind of hope for a smaller storm next weekend and maybe its the beginning of a trend.

    I’ve had it with the cold, snow, darkness. Done, done, done. White flag is raised !!

      1. Sometimes Hadi doesn’t identify which storm he is referring to but I think he’s talking about the weekend.

  102. How can you be done Tom ? It’s inly Feb 4th!! You know better wave the white flag around march 1st 🙂

  103. Tom I’m thinking the last Euro run was an outlier. IMHO the Euro has been better when the timing is closer in lately and worse when further out.

  104. Todd Gutner responded to a tweet I sent and BZ is lower in the city bc they think sleet mixes in for sure. I just see that most of the snow is plain snow and by time the sleet mixes in the storm is starting to go by us and temps crash.

    1. Todd’s snow map indicated that but I think the colder air from the night time snowfall will make it even tougher for the sleet to move in.

      1. Around 6 or 7.” I could see that. IF it mixes with sleet though, depending on how much sleet, could make this a not so impressive storm. NWS seems rather bullish on this storm. I dont know whether to feel better about that or worse

  105. I honestly believe that there will NO SLEET in Boston. We shall see.
    NWS is using a 10:1. SREF calls for 10:1 ratio.

    That should yield about 10 inches in Boston, give or take.

    I think that BZ’s 3-6 inches in the City is absurd. But hey, what do I know.
    I’ve never seen a snow storm in my life.

    1. Even if they are HUGGING the warmer NAM, it still has
      .79 qpf as snow and .12 qpf as sleet. That’s still about 8 inches?????

      Where the bleep is the 3-6 coming from????????????????

      1. Unless they are using a lower ratio with warmer temps? Say 7:1 ratio thats 5.” The only other thing i can think of is they are along the lines of TK and think the qp is overdone

        1. SREF, which is warmer, perhaps even more so than the NAM starts ratios at 10:1 and then move to 5:1.
          Perhaps they’re going with that??? I dunno.

          I believe the SREF is WAY TOO WARM.

          Go with the Euro/GFS combo for this baby.
          Ratios will be mostly 10:1.

          😀

  106. My final guess for boston is 6.5. Start time around 3am end time between 6-8 Wednesday night. 6.5 because I believe mix in boston during the storm, not at first but going to that mix.

    1. And I pick door #2 which has 10 inches for Boston. 😀 😀

      We’ll probably end up in between and we’ll both be wrong. 😀

  108. After about 4 inches of snow in Boston it will likely sleet in Boston for a prolonged period and the surface temperature will likely climb above freezing tomorrow. That’s my opinion. I don’t see this being a major storm for the immediate coast. South coast, Cape and Islands will see even less snow, and some rain mixed in, too the further south. Inland, different story. I know I’ll get hammered for my amateur forecast, and I may be completely wrong. But, that’s the way I see this storm. The weekend’s storm is too far away to predict with certainty. It does project to be a more intense, slower storm. Also, nighttime snows accumulate better than daytime in February. We’ll see. But, even with that storm temperature profiles just aren’t great for the immediate coast. I could see mixing happening then, too.

    1. What else would we expect. I guess you’re hugging the NAM.

      Seriously, I’d go with the Euro/Gfs combo here.

      I still do NOT believe that the sleet, mix or rain gets up to Boston.
      Perhaps up to Marshfield, scituate, Cohasset or a bit farther North, but NOT
      to Boston.

      And that is my opinion and amateur forecast. 😀 😀

  109. NAM sure does warm up and mixes big time, I just don’t see much sleet in Boston but for sure south of the city.

  111. I don’t trust the NAM one bit on this, EURO and GFS is the way to go and has been the most consistent.

      1. Charlie, When are you opening the pool? 🙂

        All kidding aside I plan on you using our pool quite a bit this year…going to get a nice floating chair with a couple of cold drink holders 😉

  114. This is exactly what we were talking about yesterday. TOO much technology and different outcomes so close to an event leads to knee jerk reactions and blown forecasts. We should stick to the consistency and not the radical changes. NAM certainly has a radical change for tomorrows storm. 3″ or less boston south and now 18-20” in central NE? I dont think so. Stick with the consistency.

    1. Exactly and the Euro and GFS have been totally consistent with this
      for days on end. 😀 😀

      The NAM sucks EGGS right about now.

        1. Only when it doesn’t flop so much, just yesterday it had a different outcome. The prudent way to go is to watch for consistency.

  115. I don’t think anyone is hammering anyone? We can disagree which is perfectly fine. Cat966G only 24 inches 🙂

      1. Don’t really care about the map. More about the massive headache the timing of the storm will create. 6 inches of snow during the morning commute is a nightmare.

  117. Judging by models from Boston southward we have lots of mixing and even a changeover from Plymouth to Taunton to Providence southward

      1. Who’s not John? OS and I have never been disrespectful of anyone. This is a little too much IMO. I think it’s best to drop it.

  120. Surprisingly I’m still sticking with 4-6 Boston south, 6 in Boston, 6-12 north and west, I’m going to add that Plymouth southward receives 1-3 inches but washed away with rain.

    2. Sure, it could be. I don’t think so, but sure.
      We shall see. Still hard to argue against the consistency of the GFS and Euro. 😀

  123. I mentioned this above, but while we’re squabbling about the amount of snow, I don’t think much has been said about the timing.

    For me, timing is what makes a storm. With a 4-5am start time (according to some forecasts) this thing will make a complete mess of the morning/school commutes.

    1. Wow I’m agreeing a lot this morning, you couldn’t say that any better DS, very concerning about the timing

    2. Just looking at 06GFS and 12Z NAM for timing. Looks to start around 5AM
      Worcester area to about 5:30 to 6AM for Boston.

      That’s crappy for us. Our Executive director will look out the window
      at 5AM and see it doing nothing and will NOT call work. Employees will get
      CLOBBERED trying to get into work and then will be sent home. BRUTAL!!!

      I’d rather it started at 2-3AM. Timing is still miserable for morning commute
      but terrible for those making open/close decisions, whether it school or
      business.

      1. Right. That is EXACTLY my concern, OS. Decision makers (I am one) will look out the window and say hey, no big deal. And then, WHAMMO.

        Lucky for me and others here, we can have an un-hyped, well educated resource. And I am very thankful for that!

        1. Yup, I agree.

          I am not the decision maker, but I am often consulted like I believe Hadi is.

          If we close, we utilize a call service called One Call Now
          where we have a spreadsheet filed with all employees and their phone numbers.

          I am the one who will get a call at 5:30 in the morning
          and then have to record (or if I am lucky I already have one recorded) a message about the office being
          closed and then activate the call.

          It’s a pain at that hour. 😀

          1. OS. Macs company puts a message on their welcoming voice message that says the business is closed and gives the reason. It serves two purposes. It lets client know and employees just call in after 5:15 to see if they are open

            JR also said this storm will ramp up quickly rather than a more typical slow start. I think commute may be a nightmare

  124. BZ’s map and other maps will only come to fruition if we get a constant strong easterly wind for the duration, and i dont see that happening

  126. 36 states have winter storm warnings or winter weather advisories up, some of you will not like my next snow map 😛

  127. I shouldn’t have used the word “hammer.” I don’t think anyone would hammer anybody on this blog. We’re not the BZ blog, right!

    Hadi, I love the word “armature.” You’re adding a new word to the English language, and OS’s interpretation is spot on.

    Beautiful winter morning, by the way. The coating of snow, bright sun, and a nice nip in the air make for a wonderful day, IMO.

    1. It was thinking that on the way in this morning. It is beautiful today!!

      By the way, still went with the Spring weight jacket as it was perfectly
      comfortable for me. I can’t stand driving with a heavy Winter coat.

      I reserve the heavy duty coat for only the coldest of days. 😀

  130. TK, I know its far out and will likely change, but what are your thoughts on timing for the sunday/monday system if it happens? A friend of mine is flying out of Logan at 6am sunday morning with a layover in DC before flying out to Miami for a cruise. He’s depending on me to see if he should change his flight to saturday.

    1. Hi all –

      I am a longtime reader and first-time poster on this blog- I love all the insights you guys provide!

      I’m seconding the timing question for the possible weekend system – I have a flight scheduled from Newark to Logan at 5PM Sunday and wondering if I should try to bump it up.

      I know it’s way to early to really pin down but unfortunately for me it’s never too early to start worrying!

  131. 12Z GFS looks Juicier. Does bring Mix line farther North, BUT not to Boston.

    So far on line from Plymouth to Providence, RI.

        1. Boston amounts won’t change, 8-10 is a good bet and in line with NWS. Only places i could see a downgrade would be into bristol and plymouth counties. NWS a little high there i think. If the sleet line makes it in there for a longer duration i cant see 8-10 in those areas.

  132. the 1 inch of snow that I got yesterday helped me in my photography class as I took some great scenic pictures.
    This storm still has me in a loop, Even though the wind will not the that strong pay attention to it. pay attention to upper level winds as well. If its more easterly this map would be closer, but if we have a more northerly than east, send the 8-12 inches closer to the coast and further southeast
    http://merrimackvalleyweather.wordpress.com/2014/02/04/snow-storm-update-east-wind-or-no-east-wind/

  133. It does but very short lived. All depends on where the transfer occurs from the inland low to the coastal low

  135. First time ive seen that much moisture involved in a system all winter. Gotta love the Gulf of Mexico 🙂

    1. Those are some pretty hefty snow echoes already.
      What happens when Atlantic moisture get added to the mix?

      It could really be coming down hard during the morning commute. 😀

  136. the 12Z GFS shows the 540 line at the mass NH border, wouldn’t that mean everybody would see some mixing ??

    1. No, not necessarily. It can Snow with thickness above 540. 😀
      As long as the column is cold enough to support the snow.
      850mb temps look OK, of course we are NOT seeing the whole column,
      but I presume NWS is.

  137. Tweet from Kevin Lemanowicz:
    12z nam appears to have convective feedback issues–likely too far north with the warmer air.

    That is from a NWS Boston tech

  138. Big BOMB for the weekend appears to have gone POOF in the night.
    That’s Hilarious. 😀 😀 😀

    Just a small surface low that scoots out to sea way South to be replaced
    by a vigorous clipper. Waiting to see IF there is coastal development.
    Doesn’t look like it so far.

    Gotta love it.

    1. Wow! No sooner I get the words down and the very next frame has
      a very energetic coastal blowing up. Now I wonder if there will be
      BOMBOGENISIS? 😀

          1. Considering we have a storm tomorrow that the models still can’t agree on…I say fairy dust. 🙂 That is a lot though.

            1. Fairy Dust? Sure could be. But then on the other hand, it has been advertising this system for several days, which is usually a good sign. 😀

  140. Here in the NWS tweet.

    @NWSBoston: Tech: 12z nam appears to have convective feedback issues resulting in a stronger mid level low and likely too far N with warmer air.

      1. Can someone please define convective feedback when
        it comes to these models?

        Best I could find:

        Convective feedback is a real-world phenomenon in which the presence of convection modifies the immediate environment. For various reasons, the global models do not represent this effect well, relying on parameterization functions which can at times go haywire.

        I wish we had a better definition than that. 😀

        1. OS, you don’t remember the detailed definition I wrote for all of you last year???

          FYI, I can’t ignore a further northward trend. Most everything this winter has ended up 50 miles further north than I thought. More sleet will mix in in the Boston area than I anticipated 2 days ago.

          2. Sorry, Nope. At my advanced age, my mind plays tricks on me from time to time.

            The current trend certainly is to MORE sleet
            as much as I don’t care for that. My Boston
            prediction looks to be in serious jeopardy. 😀

            IF the sleet happens, then it could be 5,6,7 inches of heavy stuff capped by ice.

        2. Here is the best I can do on convective feedback. I am squished for time until later today.

          When the NAM processes a low pressure systems underneath or parallel to another low, convective feedback often occurs. Look at the NAM. Find 2 lows that are separated by about 400 miles. It is the reflection and absorption of that 2nd low that creates a convective band that you can verify is not supported by the models own thermodynamic parameters and its kinematic equation parameters, yet there is rapid latent heat transfer causing this convective band, which creates an anomalously high quantitative precipitation forecast. The NAM changed it kinematic equation in 2012 and it has created a lot more feedback issues than the model ever has had in its past. Also there can be a modeled a phantom 3rd pressure drop about 200-400 miles away from the 2nd low and then that creates a false signal for extended precipitation away from the 2nd low pressure and retrogrades the spin of this 3rd area towards the 2nd or now combined low, which leads to the NAM’s infamous reputation for holding onto precipitation too long.

        1. You are correct, OS. But the trend is not good. I’ve seen these storms before. They look good on paper for a time, but without a lot of truly cold air in place (yet; Thursday would be a different scenario, in my opinion) they draw in a lot of warmth. Note, Philadelphia weather reports have already downgraded the storm to 1-2 inches of snow followed by freezing rain. NYC is next in line. We’ll have slightly more cold to deal with, but it’ll be marginal at the coast, and E/NE wind will challenge that cold air to a battle, which I’m afraid will be lost as we progress through tomorrow.

          1. I’m replying to myself by saying that the timing on this storm is a bit off. Had it slowed down and happened on Thursday, or overnight Wednesday, I’d have said all snow. But that ain’t happening. This is what I meant by saying “Thursday would be a different scenario”).

    2. I think the models are catching on to the idea of more mixing/sleet than initially predicted. I can see this being a very sloppy mess in Boston by mid afternoon tomorrow. Not pleasant. I wish it were all snow, but I am quite confident it will not be. In fact, it may not be more than 3 inches of snow before the change. I think sleet may also change to rain in Boston, sorry to say. Storms like these generally do not stop at a changeover to sleet. The surface temp may actually shoot up to the mid to upper 30s. Could we see 40 in Boston? Yes. Then temps will come crashing down only to make the glop quite treacherous, hard to move, etc … We shall see.

  143. Josh I couldn’t agree more as we’re both on the same page. I have been mentioning the temps since Saturday, of course we could both be wrong but I’m sticking with it. I only hope it would change to rain because all that sleet sucks.

    1. No no no to rain. Much worse than sleet, especially with wet snow underneath. Anything but ending as rain

      1. Yeah…but have you ever tried to shovel sleet..lots of it? It’s frustrating (and actually kind of funny to watch after a couple of beers)….

          1. I hear ya John. It will be interesting to see what the med center does down here. My guess is they will be open all day.

  144. I am sure someone already mentioned this but the NAM is hereby renamed the CFM. 🙂 Figure it out. 🙂

      1. Here is the best I can do on convective feedback. I am squished for time until later today.

        When the NAM processes a low pressure system underneath or parallel to another low, convective feedback often occurs. Look at the NAM. Find 2 lows that are separated by about 400 miles. It is the reflection and absorption of that 2nd low that creates a convective band that you can verify is not supported by the models own thermodynamic parameters and its kinematic equation parameters, yet there is rapid latent heat transfer causing this convective band, which creates an anomalously high quantitative precipitation forecast. The NAM changed it kinematic equation in 2012 and it has created a lot more feedback issues than the model ever has had in its past. Also there can be a modeled phantom 3rd pressure drop about 200-400 miles away from the 2nd low and then that creates a false signal for extended precipitation away from the 2nd low pressure and retrogrades the spin of this 3rd area towards the 2nd or now combined low, which leads to the NAM’s infamous reputation for holding onto precipitation too long.

    1. Surprised they’re sticking with as much snow in Boston as they are. We’ll see. I don’t see the map verifying, except to our north and west.

      1. They had a different one last night with 3-6 along all eastern shorelines including Boston. Then this morning they had a 6-10 contour getting no further east than Framingham south to northern RI. Now it looks like they’re leaning more to NWS map

  149. Funny story. One of the last storms we had, someone made a cool fb post. It showed all the major news outlets and their last call snowfall projection maps right as the snow started. All of them different of course. THEN, after the storm was over, they posted the actual accumulated snow maps from the same news outlets. Funny thing is, they were all different again! So not only can they all agree on how much snow we’re supposed to get, they cant agree on how much snow we actually get! I found that mind boggling and i wish i could find the post, i was laughing for quite some time.

  150. BZ posted a completely different map on-air than they did on their Facebook page. The one they showed on-air had a larger area of 3-6 from Boston south. Interesting.

  151. Sorry duplicate post….

    What is the reason for the change I wonder? More precip/banding or colder air resulting in higher ratios?

  153. I am holding pat with my idea I don’t think we verify the top end amounts but the sleet will not make much if an impact in Boston. Couple hours at best but not after 8 inches or so in the city.

  154. I don’t know if anyone has mentioned this already, but even ‘though there won’t be much wind with this storm – there is still plenty of snow on trees, wires, etc. The heavy, wet snow for tomorrow will just add to this and I am guessing that there could be tree damage and possible power outages. I hope I am wrong (sorry, Vicki!) but in the summer it’s not so bad but in the winter – power outages are very bad.

  155. I like this wording from Matt Noyes regarding the sunday storm potential, …” I’ve found typically it’s important to let one significant storm evolve before hanging your hat on the next – this Wednesday storm, like all storms, will reshape the atmospheric flow a bit, and that may have some impact on the pattern and steering flow going forward.”

      1. Had my wife in town yesterday as she has had a migraine now for like 3 weeks straight. No answers just one doctor after the other writing scripts. It sucks.

  157. IF these trends continue to less snowfall amounts, i expect the winter storm warnings to be downgraded to advisories by tonight for counties south of boston. I was actually surprised they were warnings this soon, all the way out to the Cape too for 4-8″ out there.

  158. HENRY EFFECT SNOW WARING IS UP FOR MOST OF MASSACHUSSETS.\
    DUE to the fact that a certain online meteorologist has called for 3-6″ of snow in the general area. A warning is now posted expect at least 6″+. Of course this is subject change, if henry increases his snow totals. We may have to down grade the storm. MCB

  159. Sticking with a general 4-8 inches with 4 closer to the cape, 7 in boston and 8+ just to the north, west and southwest of the city.

  163. euro pretty consistent with tomorrow. Hard to tell on wundermaps but when adding all frames, looks to be a large area of 8 or 9″ in and around boston. Surface temps are actually freezing or below for the duration, its the 850mb temps that go warm. Secondary development is late.

      1. It is and still will form a secondary along the coast, but the later this secondary forms, the longer the warmer air aloft will stream in here. The sooner it develops, the faster it can switch the flow around and lock in the cold air.

  166. Euro is in. ALL systems GO!
    Mix line with Euro run is across the MA/CR and MA/RI border and that is it.

    Can’t totally tell from the Wundermap, but qpf appears to be “about” the same
    as last night’s run, perhaps a tad lower.

    HADI, hope you are feeling better. Don’t bother posting anything until you lie down for awhile and take some medication for that migraine.

    I’m sure it was INFORMATION OVERLOAD due to the impending storm.

  167. I find it quite odd that the Euro has lost next weekend’s storm, but to points made by others here, the models probably won’t have a good handle on that until tomorrow’s event is through. Any idea as to whether temps today achieved there forecasted highs? I work in Kendall and at 1 my Jeep read 26 degrees, but Wundermap had MIT’s roof station at 33. That seemed odd to me. The sun felt warm, but you could definitely tell it was cold. The reason I bring that up is today’s highs may clue us in to tomorrow’s temps given how close we will be…just a thought

    1. Curious about that too. I don;t know when the next update will be but they must be scratching their heads.

    1. I agree with the 850mb line at the MA/CT and MA/RI borders, but when it gets to the MA/RI border it shoots north right up I-95 and through boston into NE MA

  170. Go For Snow: Good point. Sun is relatively warm. You can definitely tell it’s February. There’s also a lot of melting going on, as I could tell from the constant dripping from the shop awnings on Kneeland and Stuart Street. Stand in the shade and you’ll feel cold, step into a sunny spot and you’ll feel the sun’s warmth.

    Hadi, hope your migraine resolves itself. John, I hope your wife’s migraine goes away. They’re awful headaches.

  171. One trend ive noticed with all the 12Z runs today, even the euro, is a later development of the secondary coastal low and also a closer pass to the coast. Yesterday and even last night we were talking about a benchmark and even outside benchmark pass. Now, its looking like an inside benchmark pass. Am i seeing that correctly?

  172. Got some errands with my mom. I’ll be away from the blog for most of the next few hours but around all evening to update etc. 🙂

    Latest thinking from this mind at that time!

  173. Hadi feel better.
    Still think a level 2 snowfall. I think there will be a good thumping of snow before a change over takes place. Wednesday morning commute UGH!!

    1. Yea i second that UGH! Regardless of who ends up with what, wed morning it will be snowing hard everywhere, accumulating very quickly making the commute miserable

  174. weekend storm will not be handled well with the models until after this system tonight and wednesday.

  177. Seriously,

    We have been all over the map sort of speak and there is MUCH disagreement here.

    I know the NAM suffers from convective feedback, but all things considered, factoring in the Euro, GFS and FIM and to some extent the NAM, I really think we are going
    to get a good thumping of snow tomorrow. I am Really concerned about the morning commute. IF there are no closings, I can see a MASSIVE traffic JAM tomorrow
    morning. MASSIVE. Good luck all getting to work, if you have work and I we
    previously discussed, the timing is horrendous and decision makers will NOT
    make the call.

    I still DON’T think it mixes in Boston, but Boston is on the hairy edge, so IF it does,
    it wouldn’t surprise me.

    I think the NWS amount of 8-10 inches for Boston Is still on track for sure.
    Areas N&W are still in line for up to a foot perhaps a bit more. Lesser amounts
    as one heads South.

    I know Many won’t agree, but that’s how I see it right now. 😀

    2. Although I live 35 miles north of Boston and will most likely get all snow, I hate driving down to work only to see brown grossness down here. With that diatribe behind me, I also agree with Hadi and OS about the mix not quite making it into Boston. It will be close, but I think it will remain mostly snow. Should be fun regardless unless of course you are driving in this, which I very well may be

    1. I’m worried about that also, Matt. My daughters both said they won’t take their kids anyway if it’s bad by the 9:00 start time.

  180. NWS out of Upton, NY a decrease in snowfall amounts for my area from 8-10 to 4-6. I wonder how many areas have lower snowfall amounts when the update comes from NWS out of Taunton, MA.

        1. HA! Crazy. They brought ur #’s down below warning criteria but kept the warning. That’s called covering their ass! Kinda hard to take back a warning i guess.

    2. I just havent seen enough evidence today to drop the #’s by that much. I mean, they basically cut the #’s in half for ur area, 12 hours before first flake is kinda rediculous IMO.

  181. The KISS OF DEATH.

    I have just absolutely guaranteed our OFFICE will be open tomorrow.

    I just made the CLOSED recording and uploaded it our service website. It’s all
    set to go for tomorrow. Of course it won’t be needed. I did that last time and
    Boston got 5 inches and there was no closing.

  182. 5″ Marshfield, 7″ Logan, 8-10 N and W into Southern NH.

    Wont be surprised if Logan and Marshfield end up 8-10. If the layer of column above 32F is thin and not that much above 32F, I wonder if the heavier precip will do the trick to maintain a very wet snow.

    Worried about tree related power outages on mid south shore as trees already have some snow on them.

    1. Tom that “may” be a problem. Will depend upon of course, how wet
      the snow is and how much the accumulation is. Certainly a concern.

      At least there won’t be any BIG wind concerns. 😀

    1. I like this reply to that…”we’ll get 2 -4 inches like the last few MAJOR storms. They keep trying to scare us with massive snow totals and then there’s hardly anything out there.”

      1. They have done pretty well on the last few storms
        A lot of missed on the last one but this one seems like it’s pretty much on target.

  188. This is a very tricky forecast. Some bust potential – that is, less snow/more mix – across a wide area of SNE, including the interior. If the warmth is not confined to coastal areas, but also affects interior Connecticut, as NWS suggests, all bets are off. It’ll be a see-saw battle between warmth and cold. I just don’t think cold can prevail throughout, from Boston to points south and now south-west. And, I do not think this ends as sleet. I’ve only seen that happen a few times: snow to sleet, then nothing. Usually it’s snow to sleet/freezing rain to rain, then nothing or back to snow. I can see the latter happening, but the snow would not accumulate well.

    2. Harvey was not 100% that no mix in boston. Saying should hit boston 5am and when it does its hard and fast till about 1pm. As far as weekend goes he said fringe, hit or miss just way to early to go there. Good for him. Reporting to work for the storm at 3am.

      1. I heard Harvey as I am home and I gtd you he said that the mix never really makes it TK Boston and if it does it won’t make a difference in accumulation

  195. I think my limb is cracking if there is such widespread consensus among mets for the Boston snow forecast. I just hope the limb I’m on is not high up the tree, and that I’m able to have a soft landing should the limb fall.

  197. Regardless if the city mixes or not commute tomorrow will be the worst one seen around here in sometime. Harvey said it should start in boston at 5am but no buildup to heavy snow were in the heavy snow as soon as it starts with 1-2 inches an hour possible.probably around 1pm it goes over to light. I would suspect people would bang in if they can. I’m curious to see if governor anounces anything tonight as he should. It really sounds like its bad for sometime. Extremely heavy snow as well. I suspect when I leave the house at 2am I won’t be back till Thursday.

  199. I hope decision makers of school/work who will wait til tomorrow to make a choice understand that at 5am, it probably wont be snowing in eastern Mass yet …..

    Because by 7-9 am during crunch travel time, chances are good it will be snow blitz city.

    Why do I get the feeling some incorrect choices may be coming tomorrow.

  200. I like Harvey’s map best, but they are all decent.

    I have a feeling that Boston sees more snow from tomorrow’s event than from the passage of the Sunday/Monday storm.

    1. That might get things moving south of Boston.

      I’m just confused and impatient 🙂 :)….. What is going to change in the forecast info btwn now and tomorrow morning thats going to clarify a decision one way or another ?

      So, either cancel this evening or not at all.

  203. Tom in my opinion should make that call tonight and that should be no school. Now lets see if other south shore towns get listed as Plymouth just listed. I’m over it like a hawk since my 9 yr old keeps waiting for the call. I honestly believe the governor should make some kind of comment tonight regarding travel tomorrow. The am will obviously be the worst of the two.

  205. Excited about tomorrow but I have a bone to pick……

    Didn’t have a chance to look at the models today at work. ummm….. what did you guys do with the Sunday storm?

  206. I think the entire state should go into a state of emergency and declare no school for this week and next week lol 🙂

  207. Tom my phone should ring soon and an email. But I found out by going to my town hall web site. I looked at yours but it did not seem as user friendly.

    1. Its on WATD, 95.9FM …. That Pembroke is closed.

      I’m on the phone connect call both as a parent and staff, so I get called twice and will just wait for a call, if one comes.

      1. It’s coming. My son is waiting for the call saying can I answer it. As I just reminded him he should prey for no more cause he will be going till July.

        1. No kidding, I know many towns up to around June 25th/26th before a snow day tomorrow.

          However, Marshfield, with a pre Labor Day start is in good shape. A snow day tomorrow would still bring us to Tuesday, June 17th.

  208. I think the 18z GFS is pretty close to what will happen tomorrow.
    Schools already starting to cancel tomorrow in CT

  209. I’ll trade a snow day and 10 inches of snow tomorrow ( even in Marshfield ) for this being the last big winter storm of the season and 1 sunny 60F day during Feb school vacation.

    Pleaseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee !!

  210. I think they should allow kids to take off the next 6-7 weeks, but have to go through summer, it eliminates all the decisions they have to make, I’d vote for it 🙂

    1. I have to say, over the years, Marshfield’s been pretty good about manageable vs tough/challenging weather events. We’ve had school in many light snow events, as we should. But, I think tomorrow’s a reasonable event to be avoided, especially is the heavy snow kicks in at 7am.

    2. In the over 100 years I’ve lived here I have not found closings to be unreasonable. There is an occasional miss but when taking the alternative into consideration I believe a rational person understands

    3. Charlie there will be hundreds tomorrow as there should be. There is going to be serious travel problems tomorrow car, trains, planes all around. I am shocked no statement from governor. Shame on you fool if you don’t. I can’t wait till he is done.

        1. Vicki he should say to business keep employees home if you can. Non essential employees stay home. Not gee it’s gona snow. People out and about tomorrow will remember this commute. When the forecasters say when it starts it heavy right off the bat I think yes he should say something. I expect he will.

          1. Its 6-12 inches. Don’t you think that’s a stretch. If he does that’s fine but its odd that those who don’t like him also typically want less government ….unless of course they don’t :).

  214. I guess I am in the minority, but I do believe some sleet does mix in up to Boston. Here is why-The ECMWF has 1000/500 Thickness levels rising to ~545 at Boston and even up to Lawrence it is about 542. Obviously even with critical thickness values above 540 it can certainly snow but combined with its modeled 2m temp of 33 or so at Boston I think there is clear signal that if not sleet, the snow is going to be extremely wet and probably at points drop below a 10:1 type ratio to an 8:1 level. Combine that with the consistent trend of systems trending about 50 miles north of model consensus in recent weeks, which would lead to a slightly warmer solution, I am bucking the popular forecast trend and going with a bit more sleet.

    Other factors to consider is the possibility of dry air working in and setting up the dreaded dry slot to the west, valley shadow effects, and upslope accumulations in east facing hilly terrain.

    Snow should overspread the area between 4-7am, west to east, south to north depending on where you live. Northeast winds 5-15mph. Height of the storm should be about 8am-2pm. Potential for snow to shut off rapidly in many areas.

    Boston Metro 128 South Region to 495 / 95 5-8″
    Boston Metro 128 North Region to RT 2 / 495 8-10″
    North of RT 2 9-12″
    Worcester Metro 9-12″
    Springfield Metro 6-9″
    Berkshires and Elevated locations in western MA 9-12″
    Hartford Metro 3-6″
    Providence Metro 4-7″ East facing elevated locations in NW RI could be a sneaky jackpot area with 9-12″ type accumulations
    Cape and Islands, Southern RI, SE CT, 2-5″ (Lesser amounts would be found the further south and east you go)

    1. That 8:1-10:1 ratio is an average. Some of the early snow could be above that close to 12:1 and some of the late morning early afternoon slop could be 6:1 type junk.

      1. A lot of this flies in the face of what I think should be happening in this climatic set up. I would expect SNE to be drier and on the Northern edge of storms that have a more significant impact on the Mid-Atlantic states, but what I think should happen does not always work its way to reality.

  215. JMA, I also believe sleet works into boston. Not sure about the dry air but would love to hear more on that. Tk made quick mention of it last night than nothing else on it. I don’t think boston gets double digits because of the sleet but nobody is really talking about the sleet that much. I also feel the tempature gets into the upper 30s. Who knows.

    1. Who’s calling for double digit snows? I called for 8.2 and OS close to 10. I could also see more than 10 in parts of the area based on what the nws was talking about.

      1. Charlie what? I would never. Read what I said man. I was referring to the governor. I would never insult you, never.

          1. Nope that’s your job here coastal just like the folks on bz said. Last post from me to you because I’m a better man. Not sure why you insult but I just ignore it.

            1. You mean what you said! You were on BZ posting those comments. Very immature of you but unfortunately it is expected.

              1. No coastal I can’t post there from my ipone and if you have an iPhone you should not be able to see or post either. You have been insulting me here for weeks any chance you get and I have just ignored you up to this point. I choose not to play that game because I like and respect this blog. Not sure why you don’t like me but quite frankly it’s none of my business I don’t care. I will say to you I have not posted on bz for years. Also for what it’s worth to you I was very sorry to hear about your mother, cancer sucks and I have lost loved ones to it myself.

                1. Right John, you can’t post using an iPhone which your recent got so that means you were posting from work the previous two years. If you respected this blog you wouldn’t post and only read. And F-you for bringing up my mother you A-hole. You went to far on that one you F-A-H!

            2. Heyyyyyy. When you start siding with the troll on BZ I think you’ve crossed the line….that person had a lot of insulting stuff to say. And coastal and I have had differences but both of us seem to know to let bygones be bygones.

  216. JMA is far more knowledgable than I am but I could see sleet coming but way at the tail end when most of the accumulation.

    Question for you JMA the nws eluded to the fact that due to the texture of the snow it’s going to accumulate faster and more. Large flakes etc…

    1. I think they are trying too hard to be wicked smart…

      Yes, a large flake takes longer to melt than a small flake, but small flakes are dry and tend to accumulate faster. A large flake would theoretically stick better in marginal temps.

  217. John I would think you would cheering for snow as you predicted high totals for the years so I am understanding why you are wishing for low totals.

    1. I sure did and my winter guess could not have gone better to date. Winters getting old for me hadi real fast. I’m done with cold and snow. And to boot nothing is worse than a snow storm during the day for us. I’m just getting tired of it hadi that’s all.

  218. Hello,

    Just received call from the Boss. I was asked to record a new message now
    that we are CLOSED tomorrow. I did so and out it went. YEAH. Closed tomorrow.

    😀 😀

    1. Nice…the med center is open for business so I’ll be going in…luckily it’s only 4.5 miles from my house…wanna bet it takes 45 minutes to get there 🙁

        1. We have some good ones. Kingston is such a cool building..overcrowded for sure but cool. Eventually we would like build a new building down in that area as we did in Norwell.

  219. Ok, just read the Taunton NWS write up. Here an excerpt:

    AS MENTIONED ABOVE SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BETWEEN 2 AM AND 5 AM FROM WEST TO EAST…THEN BECOMING MODERATE TO HEAVY FAIRLY QUICKLY…SAY BY 6-7 AM THROUGHOUT THE REGION. SNOW WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO HEAVY THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR.

    Ok, anyone want to guess what Mr. Fussy Pants does NOT like about above?

    Snow, Moderate to Heavy.
    Moderate Snow = Rate of 1 inch per hour
    Heavy Snow = Rate of 2+ inches per hour.

    NWS says rate UP to 1 inch per hour. IF that is the case, the for ()*@#$()*$()@#*
    Sake, say MODERATE and keep the word HEAVY out of the discussion OR alternatively say rate up to 2 inches per hour.

    I HATE it when they pull this CRAP. It drives me NUTS!!!!

    And so that is my rant for the night, unless they say something else that sets me off.

    1. I just picked myself up off the floor…OS you are too funny. I know what you mean about stuff like this. I’ve been listening online to an AM station (of all things) up in Camden Maine WCME that I like (their playlist is funky…one minute you can hear Gilbert O’Sullivan’s “Alone Again Naturally” then it will segue into Goo Goo Dolls “Slide” then into Billy Joel’s “Matter of Trust)…kinda like some of the stuff WATD down here on the South Shore. Anyway I digress…I was listening to their morning show late this morning and they were calling for 5 to 10 inches of snow during the day on Wednesday with …get this.. Occasional snow showers..some which may be heavy…

  220. John,..I am at oliveira’s getting a bowl of chowder for my husband to bring to work tomorrow. Figured he could use it to shovel the sleet and rain. 🙂

  222. Just checking out some simulated radars. GEEZ this thing is in and out of here
    in a hurry. Storms come and go awfully quickly around here. Look like only
    6 or so hours of heavier precip and it’s done.

    It better come down hard or there will be many busted snowfall forecasts, including
    mine. 😀

    2. The speed is why I have kept my #’s down. The only reason I’m ok with double digit snows further NW is a higher snow:water ratio.

  223. It was not meant that way at all and it was sincere, I’m not like that. I think I’m done here. I don’t need this stress its just not me.

  224. Well I just got home from work and I turned on the TV and of course, I am going to go through the blog because I want to see everyone’s snow total forecast for the Valentine’s Day snow bomb. I am sure none of you wasted your time discussing anything else. 🙂

    1. Its from that Cocorahs site, i think someone had asked about it a few storms ago. They are identified on the NWS snowfall lists

  228. I’m letting it go one last time.
    From here on, messages get deleted that I don’t want here.

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