The Week Ahead (Belated Edition)

223 Comments

3:16PM

Sorry for the delay. So without further ado, here is a quick and to-the-point version of my usual Sunday night look at the coming 7 days.

With today mostly done, just summarizing that the end of the afternoon may see a few isolated showers as a sea breeze interacts with a southerly breeze inland and pops some clouds. This will come to an end by evening.

A deep trough (for this time of year) will drop through the Midwest and Great Lakes then swing through the Northeast Tuesday through Thursday. The wet day here will be Wednesday, with rain and thunderstorms. With this set-up, some embedded isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, with wind damaging being the primary threat. This is something that will be watched. Dry air will flow in from the west as the trough still hangs around Thursday then lingers Friday, with some diurnal clouds around each day. At this time, new weekend looks fair and dry with just some clouds popping up around sea breeze boundaries aided by the fact that a weakened version of the trough will still be hanging around.

REST OF AFTERNOON: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Temperatures 70s coast, 80s inland. Wind S up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows in the 60s. Wind light SE to S.

TUESDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 70s coast, 80-85 inland. Wind light S to SE.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain late. Lows in the 60s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain and thunderstorms. Highs 70-75. Wind SE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 56-63. Highs 72-80.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 54-62. Highs 74-82.

223 thoughts on “The Week Ahead (Belated Edition)”

  2. Thanks for the update TK.

    Care to share your thoughts on the Severe possibilities on Wednesday?
    Is the talk about “possible” tornadoes justified? OR is it more HYPE?
    Do you think there will be enough convection around to possible spawn
    a rotating storm or 2?

    Thanks

    1. It’s a low risk, but yes there is a chance. The problem is that if such a storm occurs, 1) it will be rain-wrapped and hard to see and 2) as soon as a warning goes out the entire region will over-react because of recent events.

      2. How does one deal with a rain wrapped tornado?

        If you aren’t actually watching the Dopplar radial velocity display,
        you would NEVER know it was coming. By the time NWS warns, it would have already hit.

        What do you do? spend the whole day in the basement? Of course not. You go about your business, except I will monitor
        the radar. If a trip to the basement is warranted, then so be it.

        2. And I will monitor your comments here as well as others. Even the slight potential for a rain wrapped tornado is a scary thing.

  3. FWIW, the 12Z Euro has lowered ALL severe parameters for Wednesday.
    No tornado parameters showing at all. Perhaps a very good sign. 😀

    15Z SERF just about ready.

  5. OS answer to your question from previous blog I went to the Dutascha Bank here couple years ago. He was an excellence player but dealt with many injuries.

        1. I put a link to an article on the other blog. As Hadi said and knows far better than I, he seemed to have an up and down career but I love the comment by his wife that ended the article. Made me feel proud of him and for him also.

    2. 15Z SREF, Significant Tornado Ingredients

      18Z

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f051.gif

      21Z

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f054.gif

      0Z

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f057.gif

      03Z

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f060.gif

      So this is the FIRST TIME this has shown for the Wednesday event.

      It keeps the threat OFF SHORE.

      Funny it is NOT in the area of HIGHEST HELICITY.
      That doesn’t seem to make sense?????

      Oh well, we continue to watch.

  7. Thanks TK! Can I just say how absolutely depressing it is to be back at work after two weeks of vacation?!?!? We had some great weather and did lots of fun things but this whole reality thing is for the birds!

    1. I thought of you first thing this morning. Darn but it is hard to see a vacation end. Your pics on FB were great. You sure did have a wonderful two weeks

  8. Looks pretty threatening out there in my area right now.
    No rain as of yet. No thunder, but Dark.

  9. Latest NWS discussion from Taunton remains unchanged. 😀

    Upton discussion also remains unchanged at this time. 😀

  10. Thanks, TK

    We had dark clouds, etc roll through and not a drop of rain nor rumble of thunder. It sure did appear we were in for something

    1. The article told about how he felt when the letter from Augusta. Wow. If I remember the article it said he won the st Jude classic.

  16. Latest discussion from Taunton NWS:

    THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME
    EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE MORE STEADY RAIN. WHILE THIS SET UP IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER…THE PATTERN /UPPER TROUGH NE US…LOW PRESSURE QUEBEC…HIGH SHEAR…LOW LCLS/ IS A GOOD SET UP FORISOLATED NEW ENGLAND TORNADOES. ALSO GIVEN THE AVAILABLE SHEAR…IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME STRONG/GUSTY WINDS OCCUR IN A FEW DISCRETE CELLS.

      1. Feels like a winter storm buildup ……. Low level jet, northeast us trof, onshore flow, triple point low, etc.

  17. According to Pete, the heaviest rains will be in western sections and much lighter rains here in the eastern sections. If this verifies, most of us should not have any severe weather come Wednesday, which is certainly fine with me.

    Perhaps even some dry times on Wednesday for eastern sections of MA?

  18. NWS Out of Upton, NY
    A LOW CAPE-HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO BECOME ESTABLISHED
    IN TANDEM WITH WITH DEVELOPMENT OF THE SECONDARY LOW LATE TUE
    NIGHT INTO WED MORNING OR EARLY WED AFTERNOON. BRN BETWEEN
    10-50…HIGH 0-1 KM SHEAR AND VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES FROM
    SE-S WITH HEIGHT…LOW LCLS…AND LOW LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW
    AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE AREA…SUGGEST
    POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR A
    BRIEF TORNADO.

  21. AccuWeather.com

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_0d0.png

    “If it can hold together as it reaches the Caribbean later this week or this weekend, atmospheric conditions are not as dry and strengthening will be possible,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck. AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski agrees. “There is a chance this low pressure area could evolve into an organized tropical system by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles Saturday,” said Kottlowski. The next storm will be named “Cristobal.”

  22. NWS out of Albany, NY for Wed.
    LOW LEVEL HELICITY MAY BE HEIGHTENED FROM ALBANY S
    AND E…ESP IF THE SECONDARY LOW REMAINS WEAKER…POSSIBLY
    RESULTING IN SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS…SO TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
    WATCHED.

    1. Interesting. Thanks JJ.

      I don’t think anyone or any model has a clue how this will unfold, other than
      to say a threat exists somewhere in New England. But to me, it looks like
      the threat is S & W of the Immediate Boston area, which is all I care about
      at the moment. 😀

      Of course subject to change as the event nears.

  23. 18Z GFS has most instability WELL SW of Boston, South Central MA, all of CT and ALL of RI.

    Looks like perhaps main threat remains South and West of the Boston area, but most of SNE still under the gun?

    We shall see how it plays out.

    CAPE

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014081118&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=051

    LI

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014081118&time=INSTANT&var=LFTX&hour=051

  25. Track of low key for Wed with regards to POSSIBLE severe weather according to meterologist Bruce Deprest of WFSB here in CT.
    A lot depends on the exact track of the low pressure center and the position of the warm front. If the storm passes to the south of Long Island, the air over Southern New England will be more stable and the risk of severe storms will be lower. However, a storm track close to or directly over Southern New England would bring winds of varying directions into the region. The combination of strong shear and a very low cloud base could cause some storms to rotate. Thus, an isolated tornado or 2 cannot be ruled out somewhere in Southern New England on Wednesday

  26. When our meteorologist here is talking about track of this storm system being important in regards to POTENTIAL Severe Weather I feel like were tracking a winter system where a few miles in either direction will make a difference. In this case no wintry precipitation but thunderstorm POTENTIAL.

    1. True and I don’t think anyone or any model KNOWS where this will
      track. And that is the problem.

  28. Non-weather related shock. I heard Robin Williams committed suicide. not my favorite actor but still shocked.

  30. RIP Robin Williams. I was a big fan. Some of his best roles IMHO were in Good Morning Vietnam, Good Will Hunting, Cadillac Man, The Birdcage..among others.

  31. Great actor!!!!! Mork and Mindy and mrs doubt fire . Said he battled with major depression. It goes to show money can’t buy happiness as happiness comes from inside. Shake hands with your feelings it’s important.

  32. Have to also mention RV.

    If you camp, the slapstick camping stuff makes sense. As with everything mentioned above, he was great in this too !

  34. So much talent. He touched so many lives with smiles. I seem to recall that he pretty much didnt have a script for mork and mindy. It was ad lib.

        1. Oh heck my guess is it has nothing on mine when I am doing the job of some service provider or insurance company 😉

  37. Signs of a bit of Bermuda High trying to show up next week…
    I’ll believe it when I see it. 😉

  38. NAM gets its long awaited upgrade tomorrow at 12z. Upgrade should help reduce convective feedback issues, particularly in the warm weather months. However, the upgrade seems to have an even more pronounced cold bias. The cold bias is apparent enough that a 2015 upgrade is already being planned to correct it.

    1. JMA,

      Nice to hear from you again. And many thanks for that update.
      So it’s going to mislead us in different ways this Winter? 😀

  39. Latest 21Z SREF

    HELICTY

    0-1KM

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_1KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f048.gif

    0-3KM

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_3KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f045.gif

    Significant Tornado Ingredients

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f048.gif

    Note that is OFF_SHORE. A very good sign to me that any tornado threat remains
    well to our South and mainly off-shore. We shall see.

    However, I don’t like those Helicity values. I wonder how well that significant ingredients chart handles LOW LEVEL convection in that sheared environment????

    Can’t let our guard down.

  41. 0Z GFS also keeps low to the South and keeps instability well to the South.

    Can’t sound the all clear at this point, but to me anyway, it’s looking less and less
    likely any severe weather will occur. I am NOT saying it won’t, just that it is looking
    less likely. We shall see if anything changes with the morning’s 12Z runs.

    Good night all. 😀

    1. Had some rain overnight but nothing too bad. Ride home tomorrow should be interesting from Albany east.

        1. Thanks OS and Vicki. Actually saw some peeks of sun just now. Thinking it will not be as wet a day here. Is cooler though.

  43. Interesting that most of SNE is “abnormally dry” with the new update. I believe all major climate sites were a tick above average precip wise in July.

    I always thought NAM had a previous cold bias and overcooking of precip. So wonder what this change did to the precip side of it.

  45. From SPC this morning.

    IT APPEARS LIKELY
    THE MORE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.
    HODOGRAPHS IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT WILL FAVOR A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. HOWEVER…OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED IN THIS REGION DUE TO LIKELIHOOD OF A VERY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

    1. From NWS:

      SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL…WILL HINGE ON HOW FAR NORTH WARM SECTOR TRAVERSE. NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST TRIPLE POINT/SECONDARY LOW FORMS ALONG SOUTH COAST OR OFFSHORE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST WARM SECTOR
      WILL STRUGGLE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THIS IS EVIDENT ON MODEL SFC DEW PTS WITH 70+
      VALUES ACROSS NY/LONG ISLAND AND JUST CLIPPING SOUTH COASTAL RI AND MA. THESE HIGHER DEW PTS SUPPORT LOWER LCL INCREASING RISK OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS TO INTERACT WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY. LIKEWISE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON HIGHEST CAPES FROM NYC-LONG ISLAND-COASTAL CT-RI-
      MA AND OFFSHORE.

      HOWEVER GREATEST SHEAR ESPECIALLY 0-1KM IS FARTHER NORTH/INLAND AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. THUS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DON/T QUITE OVERLAP/OUT OF PHASE. NEVERTHELESS GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
      ALONG SOUTH COAST OF MA/RI/OFFSHORE WATERS AND WESTWARD INTO NYC AND LONG ISLAND WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY EXIST. FOR THIS REASON
      SPC HAS SHIFTED THE 5% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI. HOWEVER ITS STILL A CLOSE CALL ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE SO WE WILL HAVE TO
      WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

  46. Here are your Enegery Helicity Index Bulls Eyes

    CMC

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=06&stn=EHI&hh=039&map=qc&stn2=CAPE&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&hh2=039&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    NAM

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=nam&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=nam&stn2=EHI&hh2=039&fixhh=1&hh=036

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=nam&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=nam&stn2=EHI&hh2=036&fixhh=1&hh=039

    GFS

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gfs&stn2=EHI&hh2=039&fixhh=1&hh=036

  47. It sure is looking like the main threat is well to the South and even off-shore.
    Will continue to watch. Models still NOT in total agreement.

  49. Vicki,

    If you have not seen that Robin Williams golf bit, I posted a link late last night.
    Please see above.

    2. I just saw this and am glad you commented shotime or I would have missed it.

      I will plan to watch with Mac later. Thank you!

  50. This is going to be close call. A couple miles north or south with the track of the low and warm front is going to make a big difference when it comes to isolated severe weather or just a heavy rain event.
    Thanks for links Old Salty. I see CMC and NAM on the aggressive side with EHI here in CT.

    1. The best instability is in Central/South Central Connecticut at this point.
      So doesn’t surprise me that the EHI is elevated in that area.

      Still divergence on models. Now the GFS has it farthest South with virtually
      no threat anywhere in SNE.

      So, we shall see. Waiting on those 12Z runs.

  51. Im in western CT so seeing those higher EHI values close to where I am is a little too close for comfort. This is a situation that needs to be watched. This to me and I said this yesterday is like tracking a winter storm and a few miles either north or south is going to make a difference here in terms of getting into some isolated severe storms or just a heavy rain event.

  52. Hmmm

    Now, even the Gray, ME NWS is on the Tornado talk:

    ONE FINAL NOTE ABOUT THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. LAPSE RATES ALOFT
    ARE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC. THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS NOT A STRONG
    AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER… MINOR
    FLUCTUATIONS IN THE TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE PROFILE AND DYNAMIC
    FORCING COULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WARM/OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALSO WITHIN THIS AREA WILL BE A LARGE AMOUNT OF DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR… WITH STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ABOVE IT. 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES FROM 100 TO 300 ARE FORECAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS IS THE TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF TORNADIC SPIN UPS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE… EVEN THOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS QUITE WEAK… IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT A BRIEF TORNADO COULD FORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

    So, even though our area is away from the main instability, they are saying a thunderstorm could still develop and IF it were to develop it could have rotating
    updrafts with a possible tornado.

    Oh boy, that’s 4 NWS offices ALL saying essentially the same thing.

    YET the SPC downplays the potential.

  53. NWS out of Upton NY
    MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT OVERNIGHT AND
    WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW PASSING OVER/NEARBY THE AREA…35-40 KTS
    OF 0-6KM SHEAR WITH BETWEEN 200-400 M2/S2 OF 0-1KM HELICITY AND
    BETWEEN 15-20 KTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR AROUND 12Z WED. THE QUESTION
    IS…WILL THESE ALL COME TOGETHER OVER THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME.
    THE CHANCE IS LOW…BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD STORM
    OR TWO TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR A BRIEF TORNADO DURING THE
    MORNING HOURS INVOF THE WARM FRONT.

    1. Yup, NWS is NOT dropping that discussion.

      Without the instability which could produce Strong updrafts, then
      In this particular case, any tornado that forms would pretty much have to be weak, as in EF0 or EF1 tops. Unless, of course, my logic is totally and completely
      twisted.

  54. 9Z SREF data coming out now.
    Preliminary look shows HELICITY more pronounced than runs posted last night.

  55. To me it would be similar to a landfalling tropical system if there a torandoes. They will be weak EF 0 EF 1 rain wrapped tornadoes and very isolated.
    Still a lot to figure out with this storm system.

    1. JJ in areas to the North where there is weak instability, yes. However, in
      areas that get into the warm sector where there is more instability, and thus
      the potential for stronger updrafts, then greater than EF1 would theoretically
      be possible.

      Odd thing is, the Larger helicity values are to the North of the warm front where there is weak instability.

      Very complicated. No one wants to dismiss the tornadic possibility in case
      something happens. They want to be on top of it.

      Chances are no one will get a tornado, but just in case, everyone is on guard.

  56. WOW look at these new 09Z SREF parameters!!!

    0-1Km HELICITY

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014081209/SREF_1KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f033.gif

    0-3KM HELICITY

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014081209/SREF_3KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f033.gif

    SIGNIFICANT TORNADO INGREDIENTS

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014081209/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f036.gif

    hmm still off shore with that. Don’t get that at all. The helicity is to the North of
    that area.

  57. It is tough to ignore that there are some ingredients in place for isolated tornado somewhere in SNE. Its a low risk but still a risk and one that needs to be watched.
    Can’t wait to see that 9z SREF model link.

    1. I know. Pretty scary. The only saving grace is the lack of instability.
      Could you imagine Cape of 4,000 and LI of -10 with those helicity values?
      YIKES!!

      BUT, thankfully, that is not the case.

      However, should any T-storms develop, an F0 or F1 could definitely
      form.

      Going to be a crazy day tomorrow. Will anyone be watch the radars?

  59. Is it worth looking at radar trends today and into tonight seeing what’s going on just north and east of the low and right along the warm front? That’s about where we will be tomorrow.

    2. Interesting to note that SPC has Severe Risk in areas to our SW for today:

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

      Couple that with SPC significant tornado ingredients for today

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f012.gif

      Looking at those, one would think that they would be right in our
      own backyard tomorrow.

      Not so, or at least not forecast.

      So to answer your question, I don’t think it is meaningful to look today.

      I would NOT be surprised IF the SPC issues a tornado watch fro many portions of PA today.

    3. There is a slight risk up for severe weather in northern parts Mid Atlantic today. 5% tornado chance for parts of that region
      where the warm front is.

  60. Will see what the EHI shows on the 12z runs. If that low tracks over us then watch out as a warm moist tropical airmass will overspread the region that has a lot of shear in it COULD result in some rotating storms that COULD produce a weak isolated tornado.

  61. Ought OH!!

    12Z NAM takes LOW MUCH FARTHER NORTH than previous runs.
    Also gets CAPE up over 1,000 joules into the Boston area. That spells trouble!!

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014081212&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=030

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014081212&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=033

    Have to wait for the other site to obtain the EHI values a bit later.

    This does NOT look good.

    We’ll see what the other models have to say.

    OH and I presume this run has the new enhancements.
    If it has a cold bias, is it over doing the CAPE? I dunno.

  63. From the looks of the current radar, we should have some rain in the area as soon as early this evening

    1. closer view

      18Z

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=nam&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=nam&stn2=EHI&hh2=033&fixhh=1&hh=030

      21Z

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=nam&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=nam&stn2=EHI&hh2=030&fixhh=1&hh=033

      0Z

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=nam&stn=EHI&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=nam&stn2=EHI&hh2=033&fixhh=1&hh=036

      EHI INDEX

      >1 super cell potential
      1-5 up to Ef2, EF3 tornadoes possible
      5+ up to EF4,EF5 tornadoes possible

      we have 1.5 to 2 across our area.

      Could be an interesting day tomorrow.

  65. I’ll be away from my computer for perhaps the rest of the day.
    Will check in this evening some time to see what has changed.

    Have a great day all.

  67. It seems to me the highest values for each parameter are all in very different places throughout NE. This tells me the chances of severe weather will be low and everything will have to come together perfectly in the same area at the same time for any sever weather, let alone tornados

  73. Tornadoes need almost perfect conditions, especially in this area. From what we know at this point, it is unlikely we see tornadic activity tomorrow or even severe thunderstorms for that matter. Heavy downpours yes, and will be the main concern throughout the day. I see a swath of rain later tonight and into tomorrow morning, a break in the action until more rain in the afternoon.

    1. In general, I agree with you, however, we just never know around here and to be complacent tomorrow would be a mistake. Stay on guard.

      1. Oh I agree 100%. We should not let our guard down, but for now anyways, all we have are the facts (or model generated, lol)

    1. That’s about 200-250 at 0-1KM and about 500 at 0-3km.
      IF we had enough instability to tap into that we’d be in trouble.

      It’s going to be close.

      1. Just like you said when the Revere tornado occurred and every other storm system this summer. If it doesn’t impact you then it doesn’t matter.

  76. OK, let’s focus on just the rain. 1) Has someone got a link to forecasted rainfall amounts for tomorrow? 2) Possibility of t-storms?

  78. QUESTION: What is the status of the proposed/planned get-together on Thursday August 21?

  79. I just heard on the evening news that Robin Williams hung himself with a belt and that toxicology results will take 2-6 weeks. 🙁

    1. It makes me so sad. Even my younger daughter said today that his passing left here with a hollow feeling. He touched every generation.

  80. I’m very interested to see how much it rains tomorrow.

    The DP’s in SE Virginia and eastern NC are in the 74-78F range.

    That anomalous low level jet is going to be squeezing all of that moisture out of the air tomorrow, as it rises up and over the warm front to our south tomorrow.

    Potential is there for impressive rain totals.

  81. From NWS Taunton office:

    AS A SIDE NOTE…THE LATEST SPC SREF SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETERS DOES NOT INDICATE ANY PROBABILITIES IN OUR REGION…WHILE OUR AREA WAS HIGHLIGHTED DURING THE REVERE DAY. NOW THAT CERTAINLY DOES NOT MEAN WE CAN/T SEE A BRIEF TORNADO…BUT THE SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR AS CONDUCIVE AS A FEW WEEKS AGO.

    Hmmm Have they been peeking in here? 😆 😆 😆

    1. Yet we have this from the SPC:

      …SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND…
      UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW…AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR INLAND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER…GIVEN THE LIKELY SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW…IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CONDITIONS MAY BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR THE
      DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR A TORNADO.

      the UNCERTAINTY OF IT ALL!!

      I can’t stand it. I need to know. I don’t deal with this total and complete
      uncertainty. It is like <B<PURE CHAOS!!!!!

  83. Harvey said it could produce a spin up but the chances remain low. Also saying that western parts now could receive the most rain but with these storms things could change.

  85. From Gray, ME NWS office:

    ALL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON TOTAL QPF 😀

    Gee, there’s a big surprise. Not unlike the Big snowstorm predictions that NEVER happened. Oh it will rain tomorrow, but Flooding rains? We shall see.

    1. Everywhere except poor Fall River, they are destined to get clobbered, as they have so many times this year.

          1. Wow ! Not surprised, everytime I peaked at a radar for that area today, the same spots were always under yellow, sometimes even red echoes.

      2. I wonder if we’ll almost see the coastal front setup tomorrow, like winter.

        For example ……. perhaps Plymouth, MA might eventually have a S wind, temps and dewpoints in the 70s and somewhere like Norwood, MA would have an east wind, with temps and dewpoints in the low 60s ???

        1. More like the reverse. Plymouth has the East wind while Norwood has the South wind. Just my 2 cents.

    1. And, on this picture, I just love all the thunderstorms on the ITCZ.

      When they say that there are a certain number of thunderstorms on earth at any given moment, well …… Here’s a ton of them !

  91. http://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/hrpt_dfo_nir_100.jpg

    Its not often that a good 1/3rd of the arctic is clear, but thats whats going on up there right now.

    Allows a nice viewing of the arctic ice cap in this visible satellite shot.

    Alaska is on the mid-lower left. Northern Russia is on the top left.

    One month to the sea ice minimum and the ice has melted out to at least 75 degrees N latitude. But at the top left, I think you can see another area of melted out ice that extends beyond 80N.

    On pace for another low ice minimum in September.

    One of the wild cards to how low the minimum is, is the dark ice you see on the left side of the picture. Very susceptible to melting out before September arrives.

  92. Look at radar over NJ right now torrential downpours. Saw an obs of close to 4 inch in 2 hrs. High pwat values should high totals.

      1. That dry slot looks like it will shut the rain off in SE MA shortly. Looking down the coast im not all that impressed. That area of rain over LI looks like it will translate to central and western MA. After that, its pretty much done.

        1. http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l3&region=us

          That scenario is a possibility.

          In upstate NY, the high clouds are moving SSE to NNW.

          Just south of New England, the high clouds are moving SW to NE.

          We’re in btwn those 2 motions.

          I kind of visualize all the air above us being moved away from us rapidly. Needing to be replaced, it comes from below in the form of tremendous lift.

          Given that lift and the bigtime Atlantic inflow, I think that rain area may get even more intense as the morning progresses and it might only shift slowly to the north and east.

  98. Retweeted by Danielle Niles
    NWS New York NY ‏@NWSNewYorkNY 3m

    ISLIP AIRPORT is officially at 10.71 inches since midnight! Over 5 inches of rainfall reported between 3 and 4 am! Be careful everyone!

  99. When will be the biggest chance for tornadoes today? Originally it was supposed to be this morning but it seems more like later this afternoon now. Can anyone confirm?

  100. Getting ready to leave Toronto. Looks like it might not be bad until Springfield at this point. Crazy rain totals in Long Island, NJ and Baltimore. Hope that basement drainage system works this time around if needed before I get home :). Stay safe today everyone and hope things don’t get too sever for any of you. Right now it looks like CT is getting the worst of the rain.

  104. There are flash flooding warnings up for southeastern parts of CT. The heavy bands of snow in the blizzard of 2013 did setup shop in parts of eastern CT. There were spots that picked up close to 6 inches of snow from that blizzard in one hour.

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