Weekend Update

184 Comments

4:18PM

The cold pool is gone, but the sea breeze front (where edge of sea breeze meets a land breeze) has been responsible for causing some pop up clouds again during the day Saturday, but no heavy showers, just a risk of an isolated sprinkle prior to sunset. Once the sun goes, the clouds will do so as well and a clear and coolish night will follow as high pressure builds over the region. This will lead to a spectacular weather day Sunday, high pressure in control, mild to warm air and lots of sun, with just some coastal sea breezes and a few clouds popping up (less than Saturday).

Once we get to Monday, this high will have slipped further offshore and started to open the door to a more southerly flow, albeit weak, with a slight increase in humidity but still plenty of sun and a few clouds during the day. Tuesday, the south to southwest wind will increase a bit between this departing high pressure area and an approaching cold front from the west.  The trough of low pressure driving the surface low that parents this cold front will dig deeper than usual into the Great Lakes and Midwest, as several previous troughs have done. This will push the front into the region Wednesday, which will be a shower and thunderstorm day. The front should push through the region by early Thursday, but another pool of chilly air above will have to cross the region Thursday and Friday, and though this will probably not be as cold and potent as the one we just saw, it will probably be enough to cause pop up clouds/showers Thursday, and some additional pop up clouds Friday. A very early look at next weekend looks promising, providing that trough moves along.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

THROUGH EVENING: Clouds and an isolated sprinkle/shower possible mainly northwest of Boston otherwise partly cloudy to mostly clear. Temperatures coast down through the 70s, upper 60s coast. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with sea breezes dying out.

OVERNIGHT: Mostly clear. Bright nearly-full moon. Lows in the 50s, lower 60s urban areas and immediate shoreline. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Sunny through midday. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 75 beaches to 80-85 inland. Wind light variable with sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: A few evening clouds otherwise clear. Lows middle 50s to lower 60s. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70s coast, 80s inland. Wind light SE to S.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 86, cooler South Coast.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms likely. Low 68. High 79.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered PM showers. Low 61. High 76.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 58. High 78.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 60. High 80.

184 thoughts on “Weekend Update”

  2. Thanks TK

    OS. I scored day after tomorrow also. I get a kick out of those quizzes. Thanks for posting the link

  3. I think this is a perfect 20 day. TK enjoy your night. Sounds like tons of fun.

    Tom, my youngest and family were at Humarock today and it is all glorious sand. It was totally rock covered in April. It is amazing how it changes; however, this much sand is unusual.

      2. Greetings. You certainly are a family on the move. I had to look at map as I was not sure where Manchester vt was. So glad your weather is good. Enjoy

        1. I don’t know why I think I should know it. I spent a lot of my youth in Isla motte and then in Stowe area when older but do not recall Manchester.

  4. Here’s the RE-POST of the Weather Channel Weather Movie Quiz

    The Weather Channel

    Which weather movie is like your life? Take our quiz and find out.
    http://wxch.nl/1zVBW2o

    Vicki and I scored The Day After Tomorrow

  5. Answer to today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz

    Which of the following is FALSE about a super moon?
    (By the way the super moon can be seen tomorrow night.)

    A. Increases risk of earthquakes
    B. Causes higher tides
    C. Appears 30% brighter
    D. Occurs every 13-14 months

    The answer is A. The answer D is tricky because I “think” it can occur more frequently than 13-14 months, but it will occur at least once every 13-14 months. Again I “think” but not sure.

    1. I did some reading after I posted my answer. I am not sure A is right even though that was my answer. The data varies but I think that may be as uncertain as D. I didn’t have time to look in depth so perhaps I’m wrong….well then I’d be right 😉

  7. NWS out of Taunton take on POSSIBLE Isolated Severe Weather for Wednesday
    SEVERE POTENTIAL…PERCEIVE A POTENTIAL LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR
    ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED EMBEDDED STRONG TO SEVERE
    THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF
    THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO CLOSED LOW CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM FOR TORNADO
    OCCURRENCE. LOOKS TO BE A LOW CAPE HIGH SHEAR
    ENVIRONMENT…ALTHOUGH THE GFS DOES DEPICT AN AREA OF 1000+ J/KG
    SBCAPE INSPITE OF WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A LOT OF CLOUDINESS. THE
    LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH TO BE A BIG
    PLAYER BUT EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE JET COULD VARY IN ONE DIRECTION
    OR ANOTHER. THE ANOMALOUS NATURE OF THE PATTERN AND FORECASTER
    SYNOPTIC RECOGNITION ARE FLAGS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
    SEVERE…INCLUDING POSSIBLY EVEN A SHORT TRACK TORNADO OR TWO
    SOMEWHERE IN OR NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. REALIZE THAT
    CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IS GOING TO BE VERY LOW.

  8. Vicki, there actually some evidence that a super moon may cause earthquakes on the moon itself. Trivia Quiz today was tough.

          1. I know I’ve said it before but I sure enjoy the quizzes. They are fun and they also give me something to learn about

  9. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    On average, when does the height of the Atlantic Hurricane season occur?
    A. July 25
    B. August 10
    C. September 10
    D. September 25

    Answer later today.

  10. NWS out of Taunton take for thunderstorms Wed.
    AM NOTING A NOSE OF INSTABILITY WHERE
    CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE SOUNDINGS SUPPORT ABOUT 500-1000J/KG OF SB
    CAPE ALONG WITH WITH THE LLJ. WHILE THIS TOO WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL
    RATES…IT WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED LOW-
    TOPPED SVR WX WITH A HIGH SHEAR-LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT. PATTERN
    WOULD SUGGEST LOW LCLS AS WELL.

    1. Ok folks, what does LCLS mean??????

      Some sort of linear convective system????/

      What is it? I can’t find it by googling it.

      1. Or does it mean low levels for:

        LCL = lifting condensation level. This is the level at which a lifted parcel becomes saturated, and is a reasonable estimate of cloud base height when air parcels experience forced ascent.

      1. Note: The signifcant tornado ingredients is NOT
        showing up at this time. Will keep watching.
        That seems to be a valid indicator.

  14. OS, what are feelings on this – posted 711 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2014 for Wed 8/13
    SEVERE POTENTIAL…PERCEIVE A POTENTIAL LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR
    ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED EMBEDDED STRONG TO SEVERE
    THUNDERSTORMS. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO CLOSED LOW CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM FOR TORNADO OCCURRENCE.

      1. I think that this far out, the NWS does a disservice to the public
        with those kind of headlines. We will know MUCH more as we
        get closer to the possible event.

        I think they are running scared because the TOTALLY and completely missed the Revere Tornado.

        The helicity values seem to be there. Even perhaps stronger
        than with the Revere event. The significant tornado parameter
        is currently progged at 1, which is about the beginning threshold. It was >1 with Revere. The signifcant tornado ingredients from the SPS is NOT currently there. That particular parameter was SPOT on with the Revere event.

        SO at this point, I wouldn’t be worried, but as usual, we have
        to keep an eye on this. Given that, the set up is such that
        something “could” happen and needs to be watched.

        I am particularly watching and interested in the SIGNIFICANT
        TORNADO INGREDIENTS parameter from the SREF model.
        Should that change I would become worried.

      2. Shotime,

        No worries. I’m happy to share my thoughts anytime.
        But that’s all they are, my thoughts and opinions. 😀

        1. Shotime,

          Please see below. I have changed my mind and I am
          now more concerned. It’s a REAL watcher for sure.

          I’m worried that this is a somewhat similar situation
          that caused the Revere Tornado. “could” even be
          ANOTHER morning event. We shall see.

  15. When you see wording of low cape high shear environment that is a setup that COULD potentially lead to a brief spin up. Certainly not something to worry about that this time but one to keep an eye on.

    1. Check out the GFS.

      Looking at the NAM and the CMC, I’m wondering what the NWS is talking about.
      ARE they strictly going with the GFS?

          1. The APRWX Tornado Index is reliant on the APRWX Severe Index. It does this because it first has to assume severe weather is even going to happen. This is an “attempt” that I think is good because you constrain your tornado chances by areas that are first defined as having a severe threat. The Sig. Tor index does not do this.

            There are some 40 parameters that go into the APRWX Severe index, which is trying to put my conceptual method for forecasting severe weather into an index.

            THEN, once we have relied on the APRWX Severe Index to say… yes… severe weather is likely in this location, then the APRWX Tornado Index moves forward and looks at:

            CAPE
            6km Shear
            LCL Heights
            Storm Inflow
            1km Helicity
            VGP
            Shear available to tilt the updraft
            and any cold core parameters that may exist.

            I’m biased, but I think the APRWX Tornado Parameter is better, however it’s going to be much more picky about when it’s showing any tornado risks, and on those marginal or unexpected days it’s not going to perform well.

  16. I am looking forward to those maps Old Salty. Will be keeping an eye on the situation for Wednesday.

  17. NWS out of Upton take on GFS for Wed.
    THE GFS IS A PROGRESSIVE OUTLIER GIVEN THE
    NATURE OF THE UPPER PATTERN AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FROM THIS
    POINT FORWARD

  18. From NWS Gray, ME:

    THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WITH THIS
    SYSTEM… AS SURFACE WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
    INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WHILE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE
    STREAM OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THUS ANY ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
    ACTIVITY THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT COULD POSE A RISK OF SOME BRIEF SPIN UPS.

    I like (NOT) how they use the term Spin Up.
    WHY don’t they just say TORNADO????????????????????

  19. IMHO on this blog, I truly enjoy the maps, discussions and give and take opinions re severe weather outbreaks. However, when the nws starts to speculate this early, I believe folks become complacent. So often the storms go poof so why bother listening.

    I’m not sure of the right timing but I do feel this far out is going to be seen as hype when in fact it may become a reality. By then the damage is done. Not sure of that makes sense. And this applies for tornadic or Tstorms. I believe winter events or hurricane type events should be treated differently and reported earlier.

    1. That all being said, anyone reading this blog should also understand that the discussion is a HUGE part of the blog and discussion is what it is

  20. I’m generally content with the forecast posted yesterday. It will not be 100% sunny today, but still a great Summer day. Cannot rule out an isolated shower trying to work down from Maine/NH later, but odds are against it, so left it out of the forecast.

    I will just post a new update with The Week Ahead tonight. Not going to speculate too much on Wednesday yet, in regards to the details of potential severe weather. I agree with Vicki in that anybody here in commenting can speculate all they like. I will hold back for now myself and address it with whatever level of confidence I have in the next few updates.

    Heading to Wingaersheek Beach for the afternoon, then down to Beverly for Homecoming fireworks tonight at 9PM. The update tonight will be a bit late but I will preview it with these thoughts…

    Monday: Nice Summer day, humidity comes up a bit though on a southerly breeze.
    Tuesday: Humid, clouds increase, gets wet at night.
    Wednesday: Wet day, numerous showers, chance of thunderstorms (not sure on severe potential yet), very humid but not hot.
    Thursday: Instability with upper low, cooler and drying, but a shower risk.
    Friday: Lingering chilly air aloft allows pop up clouds, but shower risk limited.
    Weekend: Looks mild and dry with fair weather.

    Have a great afternoon/evening all!

    1. Thanks TK and enjoy your Sunday and dont worry about an update. I am amazed that it seems a person can find a fireworks display in the area darned near every weekend ..if no every weekend.

    2. If they had this kind of day in Florida, it would not be a nice summer day, for here we will take what we can get 🙂 a little more clouds than sun here, not to bad 🙂

      1. There was 95% sun up at the beach, dimmed slightly a couple times with a few high clouds. Temp was in low 80s with light wind and fairly low humidity. This would not have been classified as a bad summer day in Florida. They’d have loved it. What an awesome beach day this was. 🙂

  21. Oh my there are rivers on the course of the PGA championship in kentucky. The amount of rain is amazing

    1. Dear heavens. They just showed the flood green to be nearly clear 14 minutes later thanks to the underground drainage system. Mac thought they have a similar system at Gillette but wasn’t sure

    2. A very long journey as always. I must say though I am a little less convinced of the El Nino effect right now.

      1. None of the global models predict anything happening with
        this system, however, they do depict a squadron of Lows coming
        off of Africa. Perhaps one of them will get going??? Or perhaps even this one, even though the global models don’t see it at
        this time. 😀

        1. Models take a while to catch on with these things. They are a little faster on the uptake when there is a Caribbean event. I haven’t been happy with the models ever since last winter when we were lucky if a model knew what day of the week it was.

            1. Certainly different than last year when the dust was a serious inhibitor to tropical storm formation.

  23. I think there could be a Monday finish with the PGA Championship just like in 2005 when Mickelson won at Baultisorol in NJ.

  24. I am rooting for Mickelson and hope he comes from behind to win his sixth major victory. In his last major win he came back on the final day from 5 shots back. Entering final round today only 3 back.

    1. this goes with it. Sorry.

      Wet weather, possible strong to severe storms return Wednesday.

      A slow moving front will bring beneficial rainfall to the region later Tuesday night into Wednesday. The warm and humid air will also set the stage for locally heavy rain and a few strong to severe thunderstorms, some of which could produce damaging winds or even a short-lived tornado. Keep in mind the overall severe weather threat looks to be limited, so this should not be a widespread severe weather outbreak.

      Nonetheless, it would be a good idea to pay attention to the latest forecasts over the next couple of days!

  26. I do agree this will not be a big severe weather outbreak. With that said if there is a high shear environment present COULD have an isolated severe storm and even the POSSIBILITY of a brief weak tornado.

    1. Weak? You said that last time and I disagreed and I disagree this time.
      Because we get a Brief “spin up” (HATE THAT TERM!!!!), doesn’t necessarily
      mean it will be weak. I give you the Revere tornado as an example. I wouldn’t
      exactly call that one Weak. Sure it wasn’t the strongest one ever, but look
      at the damage it did. Again I wouldn’t call it weak and again, I wouldn’t be so
      sure that anything that develops would be weak. Sure could be, but perhaps not.

      Just my thoughts and 2 cents worth. 😀

  28. Look at these helicity numbers for Wednesday:

    01-KM

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_1KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f075.gif

    0-3KM

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_3KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f075.gif

    The only reason this isn’t a Major Threat is due to virtually ZERO Cape and hardly any Lifted index.

    Capes are less than 500 Joules and LI is about -1 to -2 at best.

    If these parameters were large we’d be in a heap of trouble.

    As it is, not much can/will happen unless we get some convection with at least
    some height to it.

    Still a BIG time watcher, none-the-less.

  29. Knock on wood–I haven’t gotten as many bug bites this summer as I usually do! (And I use a lot of bug spray.) Though, as we speak, I have one on my wrist…grrr….

    I had a beautiful weekend in the Cape 😀 Wellfleet–anyone familiar with that town? It was perfect. Went to the beach, did crab fishing, went shopping in Provincetown, went out to eat, etc. 😀

    1. Mosquitoes have been better here lately also. For a while the kids couldn’t go out after dinner and now they can for a while. Your weekend sounds Wonderful. We are not very familiar with the cape

  30. Answer to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    On average, when does the height of the Atlantic Hurricane season occur?
    A. July 25
    B. August 10
    C. September 10
    D. September 25

    The correct answer is C.

    1. Darn my two theories were dashed. I was thinking mid-season and also that the question was asked because it is today 🙂

    1. Close even if not. For this title, if it gets close to dark I’d sure call it if I were a contender. They just said of there is a playoff it’ll be at 9:00 am. But didn’t say channel that we heard

    1. Thanks Scott. And I agree re increased interest in golf but then I think it has a ton of diehard followers

    2. Geez!! That’s the strongest wording I have EVER seen for our local area. EVER!

      I guess they listened to me and crap canned the “Spin Up” talk.

      Helicity values are through the roof!! (well for our area they are)

      1. 0-1km

        http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_1KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f072.gif

        0-3km

        http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_3KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f072.gif

        Those numbers are robust. If we get strong enough convection, then storms are LIKELY to ROTATE and we
        all know what that means. This is a REVERE situation just
        waiting to happen. This Does NOT mean anything will happen, but the situation warrants careful scrutiny.

        This situation is a WATCHER. Much can change in a few days.

    1. We are trying to figure how to get a golfer from the TPC Boston to come visit mac. This is the first time in 57 years he has not been able to play and he has watched the tournament every weekend for the 40 years I’ve known him. Of anyone has ideas, we would love them

      1. Brad Faxon has connections and is a good guy.
        Weei has an in with him. Call Dennis and Callahan and see
        what they can do. I’ll betcha something could be worked out.
        😀

  39. BB just indicated a Chance of some severe weather on Wednesday.
    He left it at that and did not elaborate or speculate. Smart!

  40. NWS Taunton office still at it:

    WITH THIS PATTERN RESEMBLING WHAT AN
    INTERNAL STUDY NOTES AS A TYPE-A PATTERN FOR NEW ENGLAND POTENTIAL NEW ENGLAND TORNADO DEVELOPMENT…AND GIVEN ALL OF THE ABOVE FACTORS…AN ISOLATED TORNADO SOMEWHERE IN NEW ENGLAND IS POSSIBLE. IN ANY CASE…THE STRONG LLJ COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG/GUSTY WINDS IN SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WHICH WOULD HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS WELL GIVEN THE SHEAR COULD SUPPORT SOME DISCRETE STRUCTURES.

    SPC wording:

    WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH WARM FRONT ADVANCES…BUT THE MORE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE. HODOGRAPHS IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT WILL FAVOR A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. HOWEVER…OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED IN THIS REGION DUE TO LIKELIHOOD OF A VERY
    MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

    Now, that is quite a difference there. 😀

    1. SREF Helicity
      0-1KM

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_1KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f066.gif

      0-3KM

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_3KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f066.gif

      Still NOTHING showing on the Significant Tornado Ingredients chart.
      For the Revere tornado that chart was screaming.

      Reason nothing is there? Just speculation on my part.
      Not enough instability to tap into the Helicity.

      Cape

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SFCCAPE_MEDIAN_MXMN__f066.gif

      LI

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SFC_LI_f066.gif

      1. Anything “Could” happen, but honestly I’m not feeling this
        like I was with the Revere situation.

        All the helicity in the world will NOT produce a tornado WITHOUT enough instability and lift the get some meaningful
        convection going. Not a chance for a tornado without the proper updrafts to rotate.

        Although the threat IS there, everything will have to come
        perfectly together and quite frankly I don’t see that happening
        at least not at this point. AND that is a GOOD thing!

        WILL continue to monitor.

        I still think it is WAY TOO PREMATURE for the Taunton
        NWS office to be posting wording like that to the public.
        Just my opinion. 😀

        1. If you look at the Energy Helicity Charts from the
          NAM, GFS and CMC you will readily see that it doesn’t exist OR the levels are really low due to what is discussed above.

        2. I agree. I liked the way JR formed the comment this morning. He explained the weather but added there could be a secondary which has the possibility – at this time of year – lead to more severe storms. His advice was to just keep an eye on the forecast.

          I am paraphrasing and probably doing it badly. It was a “quiet caution” which is how it should be at this point.

      2. Hope it moves through quick Wed. Will be driving back from Toronto on 90 Wednesday. Looking at the models, it looks like the 2nd half of the drive will be interesting :).

        How has your wife been this summer. Not too bad for her I assume with the lack of big heat.

        1. North, thanks for asking.
          It has been WONDERFUL!!

          She is oh so thankful that the weather has not been
          brutally hot. ONLY 4 days of 90+ so far.

          I think this Summer has been fantastic. No complaints
          here. 😀

    1. Agreed.

      I really think Taunton NWS is spooked because they totally MISSED
      the Revere tornado.

      Just my thoughts.

        1. Yes, I picked up one at Dicks. It was a special inflatable
          one. When needed, bring out in the back yard, pop the plug, and Instant ARK!!

  43. NWS out of Taunton has No hazardous weather outlook for up the region as of now. I am kind of surprised there is not one with the wording in their technical discussions.

    1. Thanks for the links Old Salty. The tornado index link you posted that I was looking at said valid for Thursday. Is it possible
      to post the tornado index link for Wednesday.
      Many Thanks

      1. JJ look carefully. That said 0Z Thursday which is 8PM Wednesday evening. Unfortunately, that far out it comes
        in 12 hour increments. It shows nothing at 12Z Wednesday.
        😀

  45. NWS out of Upton take on Wed.
    MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT OVERNIGHT AND
    WITH A SECONDARY LOW PRES SYSTEM PASSING OVER/NEARBY THE
    AREA…35-40 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR WITH BETWEEN 200-400 M2/S2 0-1KM
    HELICITY AND BETWEEN 10-20 KTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR AROUND 12Z WED. THE
    QUESTION IS…WILL THESE ALL COME TOGETHER OVER THE AREA AT THE SAME
    TIME. THE CHANCE IS LOW…BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD
    TORNADO DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT.

    1. I’ve been monitoring them. That is the FIRST time they have mentioned
      TORNADO in their discussions.

  46. I noticed that as well from Upton. In fact one of our meteorologist here in CT Joe Furey said on air hopefully we just get a good soaking but this type of setup COULD produce a tornado.

  47. If there’s one thing I’ve learned about New England weather, is that things happen when we least expect them, but yet when we fully expect something to happen, it never does 😀

    1. Hmm, someone posted a graphic yesterday for expected rainfall on wed and it was 1/3 of what that one is showing.

  49. On a completely different subject. Mrs. OS and I went out Saturday evening
    to see the new movie, The 100 Foot Journey.

    Absolutely OUTSTANDING!!!

  50. SPC highlighting our area for general thunderstorms for Wed. Of course as we have seen before that doesn’t mean an isolated severe storm could not happen.

  52. Thanks for the links Old Salty. With this latest run the helicity values CT is now in play where last night the model was showing eastern New England with the helicity values.
    Those are numbers being shown where you take notice and certainly one of the ingredients you need for POSSIBLE tornado development.

    1. Those numbers are there, but it’s a question of how much instability and lift
      are present to go along with the helicity. Honestly, we do NOT need another
      Revere situation.

      We are alert and will be watching just in case. Hopefully it will be nothing
      but a slug of rain. 😀

  53. Thankfully the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and Lift is not high as of now with those helicity values being shown otherwise I would start to get a little concerned. With that said this situation needs to be watched.
    Will be watching those 12z runs to see what kind of CAPE and Lift they show.

  54. Its look like Were going to have a good amount of shear in place now the question is how much CAPE and Lift are we going to have in place when this storm system approaches.

      1. OR, IF we get into the warm sector then the atmosphere could/would destabilize and we could get substantial lift that way.
        I’d favor the warm sector NOT getting in here. We shall see.

  55. That warm front is going to be key and hopefully it stays far enough south so all were talking about is a rain event rather than talk about the POTENTIAL for isolated severe storms.

    1. Doesn’t need to get through for severe weather.

      With the shear in place, IF the front were to generate enough lift
      out ahead of it for reasonable convection, then there is the possibility
      of rotating updrafts and thus tornadoes would be possible.

      It all depends on the convection.

      When the Revere tornado occurred, it was actually North of the warm front.

      That being said, most signs point to it being just a big slug of rain.

      We shall see.

        1. Agreed. The warm front that day made it much further north. I wonder if the tornado threat shifts toward the south coast/shore

    1. I agree John, and widespread at that. There’s some parts of the area, esp down by you, where most of these events completely missed and delivered very little rain

  59. Is this the final big trof in the eastern US for a while ???

    8-10 days out on 00z EURO looks zonal and 12z run of the GFS switches pattern to Northwest USA trof, central-eastern US ridge in 10-14 days. Has some days of 15-20 C temps at 850mb for New England later in August.

    I hope this will happen, I am so tired of this never ending, repetitive pattern thats been going since July 1st.

  60. There were some rivers and streams in southern VT that needa bit of rain to give them some flow. Very low, even for mid August.

    1. A friend of mine did the Saco River canoe trip last week. The River was so low in a few places they had to carry the canoe. In all fairness, they tell you this is the worst time to go in terms of river depth

  61. Pretty warm today and the sun is strong …..

    But believe it or not, today’s sun strength and length of day equate to May 1st.

    April equivalent sunshine arrives tomorrow.

    “Dog days” (the supposed 40 warmest days of the year) end today.

    1. I always said that Summer ends around 8/10. 😀
      Can it be warm after that? Yup. But consistent warmth, not usually.

      1. Overall, I agree.

        Unique to this summer, I think there’s a good chance Logan and the entire region hasnt had its hottest day yet.

        Perhaps a 94-96F day before mid September rolls around ????

        1. I sincerely hope not!!
          But if the pattern changes next week, anything is possible.
          It’s been 100 in September before. 😀

  63. GFS looks to be going robust when it comes to CAPE and LIft. I can’t wait to see the latest SREF Helicity valuees as well as 12z EURO.

    1. Why are those CAPE and lift values different from the instantweathermaps ones above from OS? They’re both from the 12Z GFS correct? Similar placement of highest values but different enough

      1. Ehh, maybe not. The more I look at it i retract my statement. My eyes were playing tricks on me

      2. AceMaster the link I posted is from 18z Wed. Old Salty’s link was from 21z on Wed.
        I am hoping this is an outlier since we already have high shear environment in place we get the CAPE up there and
        the lift in the negative territory then we do have be on the lookout for some of these storms to POTENTIALLY become
        severe and POSSIBLY rotate. I am hoping all this turns out to be is a soaking rain but there are some ingredients there
        that we need to keep an eye on.

        1. Thanks JJ. Keep us posted throughout the day Wed! Will u be able to make the trip out this way for the gathering on Aug 21st?

  65. Your welcome AceMaster. I won’t be able to make the gathering on the 21st but I hope one day I will be able to meet all of you. As I have said many times this is a great blog to be part of and I enjoy reading everyone’s posts and the contributions they make here whether its all year long or just during winter.

  67. Well, so much for another sunny day. They did say there would be some isolated showers around today but the radar looks a bit colorful – especially down towards CT and RI.

    My opinion only – I think we have been very lucky to have so many beautiful wknds., w/the exception of a few and nxt. wknd. looks to be nice, too. But ‘though we did have a few 90 degree days the typical HHH was not as frequent as normal. We seem to have been having a lot of storms (or storm threats) and in some areas lots of rain – and yet others barely a raindrop. As far as tornado threats are concerned – either there have been more than usual tornado warnings and even tornadoes in the past few years – or – we have much better equipment and software to note any rotation in a storm. And that is good. In any case, I would like to see one or 2 days (no more) of some HHH with no threat of any storms. But – this is just my opinion. I am actually looking forward to the cold, crisp days of Fall, holidays and snow! The summer is more than half over – but I am glad that those who are enjoying the summer are happy. We have taken some day trips in the local area – up towards Harvard, Wachuset, etc. Very nice. But no beaches yet. Maybe we can sneak a visit to Rockport or Hull before the summer is out. 🙂

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