76 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

1. Thank you, TK. I think I’m first, but as Jimi Hendrix said who knows.

2. Thanks Tk

3. Thanks TK. Interested in how the temperatures turn out today. The HRRR (and the NWS) have temps rising well into the 70s again south of the Pike. I think they may be right, looking at satellite those areas may get a couple hours of partial sunshine this morning.

   Further out, as you mentioned, the period around 3/20 looks interesting to me. Definitely some indications that a winter-like trough, probably the last one, will try to dig into the East. We’ll just have to see how it turns out.

4. Good morning and thank you TK.

   61 at my house when I left for work. When I arrived here, it was 64 on the car
   thermometer. however, it was spitting sprinkles of rain all the way into the office.

5. 63 in boston feels almost humid out there

   1. It does feel humid outside, but not unpleasantly so 🙂 Feels like a late May morning 😀

6. Thanks TK!

7. Some crocuses are now up in my yard. 🙂

8. Thank you TK.

9. It is a humid 63F. Definitely not a March feel to it. Feels like an early September morning. Bugs are indeed back. I see this as a sign winter is finished. As far as there being a trough to dig into the northeast next week, that’s been so infrequent this winter I can’t imagine it happening at the end of next week. I realize I’ve changed my tune since last week, but I’m disappointed in winter’s inability to come up off the floor at all. Usually winter does just that. Very unsure about this year. I think we do head into a period of rather dismal `spring’ weather with lots of 40s, some raw days, little sunshine, and a lot of wind and that may last awhile, right into April. 74F or whatever it got to yesterday may not happen again in Boston for a long time.

   1. It was 77 and you may be correct that we don’t see that again until some
      time in April.

      GFS shows some interesting possibilities from about 3/20 through
      the end of the month. Not saying anything will happen, just that the
      possibility exists. We shall see.

      Euro hints at days of the miserable weather you discuss. Damp, cold, raw 40s!

10. the marshland is alive, many flocks of birds have came up

11. Yesterday’s warmth at least temporarily raised the Ocean Surface temperature
    up to 41.2 from 39.7. If we get some wind and mix things up, I’m sure it drops back
    to 40. We shall see.

    The higher we can get that, the less impact the damn East wind will have on us
    this Spring.

    1. I like natures AC 🙂

       1. It is refreshing in the Summer, but NOT in the Spring. 😀

       2. Natures AC is also having a buil up of CO2 which is effecting sea life and ocean currents.

12. Thank you TK

13. Wind still SW at Nashua and Manchester NH, but has gone NW
    at Concord NH. Wind Calm at Portsmouth & Rochester NH and EAST at Portland, ME.
    It is beginning to drap Southeastward as more of a Back Door front.
    Suspect it will slide down NE MA and then into the Boston area this PM sometime.

14. Contrasting post here…
    Last night I heard peepers out in the wetlands off Route 1 in North Hampton NH. In that very same area early this morning my friend’s mother was in a nasty car/truck accident. They had to cut her out of her car. She was injured but thankfully they are not life-threatening injuries. Ironically she was in the lot with us when I heard the peepers as we had met her up there for dinner.

    1. Some strange things going on around you.
       I am happy all is Ok.

       1. That’s 3 totaled cars of close friends since March 1.

          1. Exactly what I mean. Pretty frightening.

    2. Thank heavens she is all right. Dave is correct…strange things.

15. More records again today at BDL. Overnight low of 55 shattered the previous record high minimum of 40. And they are back up to 70 as of noon, tying the record high for today. What’s even crazier, it’s cloudy and raining lightly there right now. Literally feels muggy out!

16. From NWS:

    WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND…

    LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING CENTRAL US
    SYSTEM VERY WELL. EITHER WHICH WAY…APPEARS THAT A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE OCCURRING AS STRONG RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE WEST WITH DEEP TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL THROUGH EASTERN CONUS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE WITH AN ACTIVE PRECIP PATTERN.

    Indeed, much colder look on the Euro and GFS late next week and a storm threat around the 3/20-3/21 period.

17. I think it comes very close to 70 again, possibly next Wednesday

18. In Fort Myers. Temp, 87. Partly cloudy.

19. Epstein (“weather wisdom”) has thrown in the proverbial towel. He’s declared winter done after one of the mildest winters on record. We had a few cold interludes and some snow, too. I can’t complain. But, this was a mostly forgettable El Nino winter. I’ve thrown in the towel, too, in spite of what the Euro and GFS are spitting out for 10 days hence. We’ve been there too often this winter with longer-range model guidance, only to be sorely disappointed as the projected troughs never materialize. My hope is that we have a real spring, but that may be a bit much to ask for in these parts. I think that we’ll have several beautiful days for sure the coming months, but a lot of murkiness in between before we settle into a summer pattern of 80s, 90s, and above starting sometime in mid May.

    1. And he is s very good met

       1. Agree. No nonsense. I like his gardening tips, too, even though right now I don’t have a garden to work in.

          1. I agree with him as I said I had a strong feeling . It’s already March 10th . I think the pattern will indeed change and it won’t include snow . Just my opinion .

             1. Guess it’s safe to say neither of you agree with me. 🙂

                1. I do

20. Well to support the above, the 12Z Euro has….
    What the bleep else!!!!, a LAKES CUTTER on 3/20!!!

    That’s 10 days out and time for it to change, BUT….

    1. Too amplified.

       1. Even with the mega-hyped UPGRADE????

          Wow!

          Nothing’s perfect, is it? 😀

          1. It’ll take a little while. They’ll make a tweak here and there. So far I’m impressed with the model overall.

             1. But still has a tendency to over-amplify. Still beats the crap out of the GFS!

21. Flakes in the air a valid possibility March 20 and/or 21.

22. TK, I certainly didn’t mean to imply I disagree with you. See my note below. I love your forecasts, enthusiasm, and succinct explanations of weather and climate phenomena. I’ve learned a lot by reading your forecasts and comments.

    The gut part (emotional) of me agrees with Epstein, given what has transpired over the last few weeks. The head part (hopefully my head is rational) agrees with you. I’ve reminded everyone here on the blog about what’s been going on only a few hundred miles north of here. I’m sure I’ve done this far too many times, as very few people care about the weather in Sept-Iles, L’Ancienne Lorette (Bergeron’s birthplace), Quebec City, Jackman, Maine, or Jay Peak, Vermont. The reason I’ve been pointing this out is to show how relatively close we were to having a snowy period and sustained cold. They’ve been having and will continue to have a lot of snow and cold. It’s not as if the places named above are near the Arctic Circle.

    1. It won’t take much to tilt that seesaw down this way for a short while. I agree we will not enter a long-lasting cold pattern, but I do think a bump in the road is on the way.

       1. Of course, up until April 1, 1997 Logan had only 26.5″ for the season, not much more than now (25.9″).

          Does history repeat itself?…that is the conundrum.

          Was 1996-97 an El Niño winter TK?

          1. Yes. We were at the start of what would become the big 1997-1998 episode.

             1. True, the index started to rise after January 1997, however, it was the 1997-1998 season that
                was the true Strong El Nino Winter Season. See chart above. 😀

          2. According to this web page I found, 1996-1997
             was NOT an El Nino Winter.

             http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

             But I thought I read on these very pages that it was?

             1997-98 was a STRONG EL NINO, but that big storm
             was 3/31-4/1 1997 which was part of the 1996-97 season.

             1. The SST’s were already above normal at the end of the 1996-97 Winter. It was literally on the front end of the episode. They don’t call it official until it’s been that way for a certain amount of time, but that time was indeed part of the stretch.

                1. Oh, I certainly agree. I was just commenting on the entire season.

                   The chart graphically depicts the
                   start of that El Nino episode.

23. I don’t mean to be disagreeable, I just think winter in all intent and purposes has been over for a while now. Even if it chills back to 30 or 40 degrees, or flakes in the air, that’s ok. If it’s meaningful and causes problems 2-3 inches, then that would be egg on there face. As I respect mets that don’t call winter over bc of stats or a pattern, I do give respect to them that put themselves out there on that limb, and say yes winters over. Good stuff!!

    1. You are free to agree or disagree. You explained your thoughts nicely and that’s all I ask from you, or anyone. It may very well be that we never even see another flake. We’ll see.

24. I’ve been up and down on whether or not I should remove the winter coats (protective coverings) off my flowering plants/shrubs since I usually wait until April.
    But, after reading the above regarding more March-like temps in a week or so, I think I’ll leave them be. I just hope my plants aren’t cooked come April!

25. Friendly wager: It does not get below 30F in Boston until November 2016. It would be remarkable if March offered us nothing in the form of a late winter punch, even if just in the form of a cold interlude. But, I’m not seeing anything cold or snowy in SNE the coming weeks, just a lot of fairly raw days, clouds, some wind, some rain (which is beneficial), some sun at times, and 40s and 50s. The usual spring fare in these parts. I admit my reading of model guidance isn’t professional by any stretch, but it appears the cold stays north of us, lows ride to our west and north, with a few backdoor fronts (one appears to stall for several days).

    1. 2 part push of polar / modified Arctic air will push the temp to the upper 20s in Boston at least one more time.

       It’s looking more and more like the pattern does this for about 1 week total, probably in 2 surges, and then the door slams shut really quickly.

       1. Thanks for your response, TK.

    2. I think you have the general pattern down, but I still kind of think Logan can get down to 30F at night before we get to mid April. All it takes is a decent cool shot of air. Yes, the strengthening sun would make a difference during the day, but at night, I’d think 30F is attainable.

       1. True, Tom and TK.

26. Kind of neat to see the wave of low pressure passing through.

    Logan has switched back to a decent w wind. Meanwhile, its 42F with a NE wind in Portland, ME.

    1. Snowing in northeastern Maine and in the upper 20s in many locales. I realize that’s far from here, but it is technically New England and part of the Lower 48. Looks like that area will get wave after wave of impulses of snow, mix, and rain. My guess is all 3 each time an impulse crosses the region: Start as snow, change to sleet and rain and then change back to snow. When all is said and done that part of NE will have had a healthy amount of snow this year, but that’s only a small part of the great state of Maine. Most of Maine will be far below normal in terms of snow output.

       1. A 5 or 6 hr drive up rte 95 and it’s a whole different world. 🙂

          1. Yes, I’d like to head up there right now, but I’ve got a workday ahead of me. I bet you the people up there would think I was totally crazy. They probably clamor for days like we had yesterday.

27. I know yesterday was 77F at Logan, warmer elsewhere and broke records in places by several degrees. In spite of that, I didn’t find yesterday strange. Lots of sun, solidly in the warm sector, dry ground, all adds up to me.

    I found today downright strange. It’s March 10th. The warm air held in spite of cloud cover and a lighter gradient. 60s and dewpoints not far behind. March 10th and with the true warm sector trasnsitioning to something less impressive, cold air could not make a charge, even at the surface, into most of central and southern New England out of southeast Canada on March 10th. …….

    1. Completely agree. Today felt weird for March 10th. Not truly muggy, but certainly more humid than a typical March day.

       1. Christmas Eve day felt much more humid/muggy. I was literally sweating while walking that day. It felt just like a typical mid-summer’s day even though on the calendar it was December 24th.

          1. That certainly was another very strange feeling day.

             1. A Christmas Eve I will always remember for sure…at least until a major snowstorm should occur on that day. 😉

    2. I agree, Tom. This morning felt like a rainy morning at The beech in summer. My two year old grandson asked what the smell was. It was rain and humidity.

       I did and still am enjoy listening to the rain.

28. Eric has now backed off the “winter is over” theme. On air earlier this evening he said “In New England, it ain’t over till it’s over” and posted a snow map showing the April Fool’s 1997 Blizzard.

    It seems that perhaps Eric has been reading this blog and/or he is starting to see the same medium/long range models that TK is. It would be interesting if other mets are noticing the possibilities as well.

    1. Philip, your posts are always insightful. You’re absolutely correct about Christmas Eve and Day.

29. Heavy rain. Still 56. I may have to tear myself away from the debate and go to sleep before the rain stops.

30. SST are up to 42.1 degrees. Probably rise to 43-45 degrees by next week with many days 50+, and even 60+ a few days.

    1. I believe these are 7-9 degrees higher than last year to date.

       1. It is way up this year. It’s seldom we see such a deviation over a year’s time, but this is indeed one of those times…

31. Yawn…..good morning.

    0Z Euro now has SNOW for the Equinox. Did someone here mention flakes in
    that time period? Has 7 inches for Boston, less to the South.

32. Sure and I’m the Easter bunny

    1. Just posting what the NEW and IMPROVED EURO
       is saying. I’ll post a few maps when the blog is updated.

       You can be the Easter Bunny, but remember, I’m Santa Claus. 😀

       1. You got it.

33. Updated…

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