Monday Forecast

277 Comments

7:20AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 3-7)…
The slow moving upper low will cross the region today and high pressure will gradually sink southward from eastern Canada into midweek. No big changes to this forecast as it remains a little unsettled today with a redevelopment of clouds in areas that saw clearing, as well as a few showers and maybe even a thunderstorm over a few interior locations during this afternoon. One more push of onshore winds will bring more cloudiness and areas of fog tonight into Tuesday before improvement arrives by midweek as the high to the north finally moves far enough south.
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms interior MA and southern NH with small hail possible. Highs 57-65. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of rain showers early. Lows 50-56. Wind light N to NE.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog early. Highs 58-65. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Areas of fog early. Lows 52-58. Highs 60-68.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-58. Highs 62-70.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-58. Highs 63-71.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 8-12)…
Same theme regarding Matthew. The feeling is that the system passes to the southeast of New England with a risk of some rain from a northward extension of tropical moisture interacting with a front from the west from sometime October 8 to early October 9. Fair weather would return for the remainder of the period with the timing I expected. Still more fine tuning to do.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 13-17)…
Tranquil, mild pattern expected during mid month.

277 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Since there’s no widespread rain in the forecast today, I could stand to see a bit of sunshine soon. I think we’ve perhaps had a few glimpses of sun in Marshfield over the last several days.

  3. Thanks TK! Seems the trend from the 0z/6z guidance is to bring Matthew very close to or onshore of the Carolinas in 5-6 days, with some models (sans the ECMWF) also taking it close to or into SNE. So a more westward track in general. Problem is, this is again a single cycle trend; multi-cycle trends have been non-existent. We’ll see what the 12z runs show, but it’s still impossible to have much confidence on an exact track beyond the Bahamas.

    1. Nicely stated. I took a peek at the models via my mobile device very quickly this morning. Never looked at the Hurricane models. Just looked at those AND both of them sure look to bring Matthew up here. One hugs the NC coast and one actually makes landfall at NC.

      I just don’t get the Euro. If matthew mills around off of the Carolinas and then moves straight out to sea, then we will have to bow to the Euro. ALL other models say What are you talking about Euro?????

      So I don’t pretend to know. I am NOT saying it is coming up here, BUT I am concerned that it just very well may come up here.

      We have dinner reservations for Saturday evening, 10/8, so that will increase the chances Matthew comes our way.

  4. L’Shana Tova to all celebrating a New Year today!
    I hope you have a special day with family and friends!

      1. We can bet lunch since we both work in the are lol. I just have a hunch . Besides if I loose we can meet as I’m slowly starting to meet folks here as I had the pleasure of meeting sue this past Saturday night and Tk at Hampton. It was nice meeting you sue .

        1. Ok, A hunch is fine. A hunch is a hunch is a hunch.

          I have a gut feeling that it comes our way.

          Would I bet on it? NOPE.

  7. I have a gut feeling it gets us. Maybe not a full on hit, but enough to cancel my plans on Long Island this weekend. I have to make the call by wed the latest and something tells me we won’t know any more wed than we do today

    1. Well count me in Camp Ace. I’m with you. I don’t have a good feeling.
      I am hopeful that we get a “bench mark” passage of Matthew and not
      something worse. That would deliver the rain we need without the damaging
      winds or at least it would minimize any potential wind damage.

      A pass Between the Ct River and say about Narragansett Bay would be very bad, whether Matthew were a Strong Extra tropical system or a cat 1 or cat 2 hurricane. With the drought conditions, I have a feeling it would not take
      the strongest of all winds to topple trees.

      I do not wish for a totally OTS scenario, although it is clearly still on the table, but looking less and less likely.

      1. And even if it does go around the BM, if its extra tropical, we might not escape the winds as the wind field would be expanding

        2. Right, that’s why I added at least minimize wind damage.
          Would be far better than the bad tracks I listed. 😀

    2. I’ll play in camp, Ace. And I am basing this on no more than a feeling.

      As I said with the Pats/Bills….I’m hooked on a feeling 😉

  8. I’m not sure what to think at this point. If I had to guess looking at everything this morning, I would think we get some pretty good rain, some wind, and high surf in here from say noon-ish Saturday to about 6 pm Sunday and out in the GOM/maritimes early Monday morning. The center stays off shore by a few hundred miles .
    The euro solution is out to lunch, IMO. Euro wants nothing to do with it at all in NE. I mean nada. Could be a blend of the 2 camps and it has some rain impact with not much else.
    Sampling should be better by tomorrow evening or Wednesday morning. Seems like this has been going on for weeks.

    1. I think that most of us pretty much feel that way.

      Waiting for the next model run, I feel like a kid on Christmas Eve anxiously waiting until morning. I still wish they were all run hourly. I can’t stand waiting
      6-12 hours in between runs. I HATE IT!!!!

  9. 8AM advisory, Matthew down to 130 mph, but still at 943 mb.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/031154.shtml

    Cone

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT14/refresh/AL1416W5_NL+gif/115544W5_NL_sm.gif

    This morning’s tracks

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_tracks_latest.png

    https://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201614_model.gif

    Satellite and it still looks healthy and moving due North (although wobbling back and forth)

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/imagery/rbtop_lalo-animated.gif

      1. Yea, some have the mean track right over Long Island into Ct/central Mass. Another right in Narragansett Bay.

        1. I’m just not sure how reliable the hurricane models are out that far and dealing with a system that is possibly extra-tropical at that latitude

          1. True, however, just adds more pieces to the puzzle.
            Add it all up, and it could potentially spell trouble.

            I still do not understand the Euro????

            If I may, I’d like to add one more thing to the mizx here. Yes I know all of the caveats associated with the DGEX, however, that said, it takes the system to just off of the SC coast and then loops it back to the SE:

            http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/f126.gif

            http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/f144.gif

            http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/f168.gif

            http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/f192.gif

            I know this model is fraught with its issues (ie NAM extension etc.), but even so, does this
            lend some sort of support to the Euro solution????

            I wonder?

            1. Has the DGEX been showing this solution for some time now? Has it been mirroring the euro consistently? If not, I’d say toss it out

              1. I can’t select old runs, just 6Z or 18Z. Looking at yesterday’s 18Z run, it is totally and completely different. So, I’d say you are 100% correct to completely IGNORE
                it.

                TK says to always ignore it.

                I look at it from time to time to get a different perspective or a “What If” if you will. I am well
                aware of all its deficiencies.

                I have seen it spot on and I have also seen it completely full of crap, probably more crap than not. 😀

    1. Awesome. Should be a piece of cake.
      Will you have to make compromises as I did in the set up/location?

      Or do you have a great spot for it all picked out?

      1. I have the current rain gauge and sensor in good locations outside. Although the gauge sits on a table and so far has not been blown off. I’d like to have it secured. Either way, I suspect I will use same positioning. Work just keeps getting in the way of a bulk of time so I don’t have to start, stop, figure out where I stopped and start again. Work does have a tendency to do that 🙁

  11. Perhaps I don’t say this often enough, but I absolutely LOVE this blog!!!
    Thank you again TK for hosting this truly amazing site. Frankly, I don’t know
    why most of SNE isn’t here? We should have more members (Perhaps we do, and they are lurkers?) They are really missing something!

      1. Not good. I seem to recall GettingBetterAllTheTime said her friend was on the southern peninsula. Will have to go back and check.

  13. This thing is crazy. My wife and I are supposedly flying to Nassau on Monday morning. What shape will the Bahamas be in on Monday? What will the weather look like up here in CT on Monday morning? Should we cancel or shouldn’t we? We have insurance but they tell us we’ll only get a complete refund if the airlines cancel all flight to Nassau, otherwise it’s 75% if they don’t, which is better than nothing. Who knows this far out.

    1. Personally Mike, I would not cancel – the Bahamas are used to these storms and well equipped to handle them. And if the GFS is correct, the brunt of the storm will have passed CT by Monday AM. Just too early to say anything for sure – I would wait till Wed or Thurs before making a decision.

  14. Thank you TK! SS Kid…it was a pleasure to meet you also. I hope you didn’t think I was a bit psycho when I went running out the door after you. 🙂

    Put me in Camp Ace. The boys have their first night game under the lights on Saturday so it is sure to at least get rained out. 🙁

    1. Well now, that is pretty interesting for sure.

      Let’s see what it looks like 6 or 7 days from now. 😀

        1. He’s not wrong at the time frame his graphic encompasses. Euro has easily beaten the field in the Caribbean. It’s long range performance, not chronicled on Eric’s graphic, has been a different story. GFS more consistent in the long range. All in the details.

  18. As long as we are comparing models, how about this.

    Positions as of 0Z, 10/7

    GFS

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016100306/gfs_z500_mslp_us_16.png

    Euro

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016100300/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_5.png

    CMC

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016100300/gem_z500_mslp_us_17.png

    NAM

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016100312&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=78

    UKMET

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=096

    Navgem

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2016100306/navgem_z500_mslp_us_16.png

    1. I am not making any judgements or predictions, just throwing out the comparisons. I find it truly fascinating.

      Can’t wait for the 12Z runs to complete. 😀

      1. JPD – for anyone who does not have the advanced knowledge you and most here have (that’s me), to have the links listed clearly by model is as good as it gets. Thank you and fascinating.

  20. Invest 98 might start coming into play too in how it interacts with Matthew and its track. Models might start “seeing” it soon and deciding how it will affect Matthew. Might have even more spread in the models at least temporarily.

    1. I was thinking that earlier.

      To me, it “Might” suggest a closer path of Matthew to the coast, but I could
      be all wet.

  21. SAK – thank you for your response to my question earlier on why the GFS/Euro are initializing the hurricane some 50 mb higher than the current storm strength. Makes sense that the models are calculated off a grid system and each block of the grid takes an average pressure.

    Also explains why the modeled central pressure is projected to decrease as the storm moves north and gets closer to us – i.e. the central core of the storm loses its strength as it becomes post tropical but the lower pressure and overall wind field tend to fan out further from the center.

    1. You’re welcome Mark. The model forecasts are all just a serious of grid points. Everything in between is just interpolated. For the GFS, those grid points are 13km apart. So, if the initial data has 993 at 1 point, and 990 at the next point, even if there’s a 943 in between, it would probably get missed.

      1. SAK,

        I was thinking about this after you posted earlier.

        Could you explain how the models tend to “catch up” and get
        the central pressure down to at least close to what it
        really would be.

        Still having trouble understanding that. The same grid issue would still be present? no?

        And could the pressure actually change by 50 mb over a 13KM distance? That seems a bit much to me.

        Many thanks

        1. Yes, the models will absolutely catch up. They can “see” that things are ripe for the low to strengthen.

          Can the pressure change by 50mb over 13KM? Sure. One reason though why the models are off by so much is the quality control programs built into them. They may see a pressure of 950 and think “bad ob” and either ignore it or smooth it out. That’s one reason why they drop so many dropsondes right around a storm. So that the model sees lots of lower pressures nearby and doesn’t smooth out or ignore the ones that otherwise don’t seem to fit.

          1. Many thanks again.

            We are so lucky to have not one met, but 3 here on this blog. And what we get to learn is beyond description.

            Thank you all.

    1. Latest track from NHC

      http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/145545.shtml?5-daynl#contents

      Positions and strength

      FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

      INIT 03/1500Z 15.6N 75.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
      12H 04/0000Z 17.0N 74.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
      24H 04/1200Z 18.9N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
      36H 05/0000Z 20.8N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
      48H 05/1200Z 22.6N 74.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
      72H 06/1200Z 25.5N 76.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
      96H 07/1200Z 28.5N 77.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
      120H 08/1200Z 32.0N 77.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

  23. Over the last few days, the Euro has handled Matthew the best. While nearly every model was bringing it over Jamaica, the Euro kept it east of the island. As for since Matthew formed, I’m not sure which model has been best thus far.

    Now, as to the Euro’s future track for Matthew. The reason it’s doing what it does is because it has a much weaker trough moving into the Plains, and thus it’s not strong/deep enough to grab Matthew and pull it north. As such, it builds the ridge back into the north, which is why Matthew gets stuck off the Carolinas.

    As the trough in question moves into the West Coast over the enxt 24 hours, and gets into an area with more data, the models should start to get a better handle on it, and converge on a solution. Until then, nothing is set in stone.

    I went over this in my blog post last night: https://stormhqblog.wordpress.com/2016/10/03/weekly-outlook-october-3-9-2016/

    One other thing I have in there, and very few people have been bringing this us (but my boss agrees with me 100%), even if Matthew doesn’t come close to New England, we may have a serious rain event (a PRE) this weekend as the cold front approaches and moisture streams northward from Matthew. TK alluded to this as well, but I actually hit it pretty hard in my blog post.

  24. A PRE without the storm itself-would that not be a best case scenario in regards to the drought? Or would it be too much of a good thing?

    1. In October 1996, a PRE dumped 8-16 inches of rain on us in 2 days. In October, 2005, a PRE dumped 5–10 inches of rain on us in 2 days.

      You don’t want’t that much rain at once. The ground is so dry (though less so after this past week), that it can’t handle that much at once and we end up with flooding, sometimes serious flooding. Sure, it wipes out the rainfall deficit, but doesn’t actually do a lot for the long-term drought/soil moisture issues.

        1. Predecessor
          Rain
          Event

          The quick explanation:

          The upper-level flow ahead of the system streams the moisture northward, and an approaching cold front acts as a focus, so you get tons of tropical moisture focused on an area just ahead of the front.

        2. Predecessor rain event. The approaching front from the west will interact with Matthew at it approaches from the south and draw significant precip into New England (even if the actual storm track is well off shore).

  26. Slowed down a touch too. If I read all this right, that would not favor a NE hit. Smaller trough interaction, more east.

    1. At 105 hours, it is considerably closer to the SC coast than at the same time
      with 6Z run (ie 111 hours).

  27. My reply about Fisher sent prematurely and was far from done, after which I was swamped at work.

    No need now to go on as SAK covered it. 🙂

    And back to work I go. Catch up later!

    1. More than understandable …. it is that pesky work thing again. Darn. And WxWatcher covered it well also. Some amazing talent here!

      2. Yeah, pretty major hit for SNE on that run. The interaction with the approaching front absolutely crushes us.

        Am I reading that right – 12 inches of rain in 6 hours! Talk about flooding!!

  29. That run is pretty much the worst case scenario for SNE yet. Thankfully still 6 days out and it can/will change.

  30. The only saving grace on that 12z run, the interaction with NC significantly weakens Matthew. It’s be a tropical storm at best, and more likely transitioning to extratropical is it comes through.

    1. Yup, I was just going to post that, until I read the above.

      Now, what will the Euro do, What will it do?

  32. I dunno. I bet that changes. There’s only 1 or 2 GEFS ensembles that take that track. The rest are east. GFS operational may be out to lunch here. Lets see what the euro shows in a couple of hours. But like SAK said, the models will have better sampling in a day or so Re: trough.. Hopefully by Wednesday this gets clearer.

  33. There were 8 GFS ensembles at 6z that tracked Matthew at or inside the benchmark. I have a feeling the 12z GEFS will have shifted even further west.

    2. Bench mark, I’ll agree. I was just looking at the 2 that take the track shown by the 12z op.

  34. The GFDL and HWRF also have make big shifts west.

    Hmm….the trough gets to the West Coast this morning and the very next run, literally ALL of the models (pending the ECMWF) make a big jump to the west. Coincidence?

  35. Looking at today’s 12z guidance, I wonder… just how far west might this thing go? Is a Florida landfall on the table? Sure looks it to me as it stands now. Might be good for us; as SAK was talking about, a landfall further down the coast will reduce the storm’s intensity as it comes up here, if it does so. Looking like a heightened risk to the US in some form though.

    1. Yes, to be sure, however, could simply be a temporary wobble as is often
      the case. We’ll have to keep monitoring to be sure.

  37. Can someone help:

    With a land-falling hurricane, the winds are the strongest in the right quadrant? Or is that the heaviest rain?

    Also, I seem to remember that, with New England hurricanes, you add the wind speed of the storm with the velocity of the forward speed and that could be the equivalent of maximum winds.

    For example, Matthew has 80 MPH winds and it’s booking it north at 25 MPH, the winds at the coast may seem like 105 MPH.

    I seem to remember something like this while following Gloria and Bob.

    Am I right about this?

    1. And I believe, though I’m not certain, that you can deduct on the west side. (Sustained winds from the North – forward speed)

    1. I’m still surprised by the trend near the SE US coast. All the way west to btwn 76 to 80 Longitude.

    2. Also, and we’ve been seeing this all along, the change in the ensemble colors from blue to red, signifying a lower projected pressure later in its track. Probably the interaction of energy from the jet stream intensifying the storm as it moves up the coast.

  39. Oh jeez. Not sure what to do about birthday party on Sunday. Probably need to cxl by Tuesday or Wednesday at the latest.

    1. Sorry about that hadi. Not looking particularly good right now. I’d give it until
      you see the 12Z runs on Wednesday, IF that gives you enough time, else
      do it tomorrow.

  40. We have all of this discussion about ensemble members.

    I for one, would like to know EXACTLY what parameter(s) is/are being changed
    for each and every ensemble run. I understand why ensembles are run, however,
    what if by chance the operational run is initialized precisely? Then the ensemble
    members are rendered useless?? Just asking. I believe they are run just in case the intialization was not correct so we can determine might happen depending on what was not initialized properly. Yes, I am playing devils advocate here.

    Point being, what if the 12Z GFS operational run is correct?

    Still lots of time left, but I see a trend here.

    Dying to see what the Euro shows.

    As Sak said, MOTS with an OTS solution still.

    BUT, what if it now shows a significant Westward shift?

  42. Euro at 48 hours a tick north of the 00z run, but not by much. Longitude still right around 75.

    1. Look at the 588 dm contour sticking up into the mid Atlantic at hr 72.

      Hr 72 vs yesterday’s 96 hr on the 12z definitely has come west a bit on track.

      1. Yes, West by 25-50 miles or so. Difficult to see on the scale of
        the maps. I was about to post this a few minutes ago, but
        had staff pop into my office.

  45. It is beginning to look like the Euro is making the shift West.
    But we won’t know for sure until we see what it does with it
    by the Carolinas.

    1. Yup, at 120 hours, significant difference in the sharpness of the trough.
      This run is still destined for OTS.

      1. Although, looking at it again, it “just” may hang back far enough West to still allow Matthew up the coast.

  50. At hour 144 still looks destined for OTS, despite what I said above.
    Looks like trough caught up and still not sharp enough.

  51. Hour 144, 300mb winds look a little more favorable, so perhaps it will come
    up but remain a fair distance off shore?

  53. It did move, that’s for sure. But still basically a fish storm for us. At least on that run.
    We’ll see if the 0z run brings it a little closer, or will the 0z GFS tick east?
    At some point, there has to be a convergence. That trough is key though.

    1. Yup, it moved West, but not enough to get anything up here but a few showers
      on the Cape and Islands. BUT, that is a change and perhaps a trend.
      We shall see.

  54. Hell, TK was/is probably right all along. He said a few days ago he thought it would track a few hundred miles off ACK with some PRE from that font to the north, a little wind, and not much more.
    I think that’s the gist. He can correct me if I’m wrong.

  56. I seem to recall TK saying those topical models don’t do well with extra tropical systems once they get north.
    But, that’s pretty compelling.

    1. Your statement above is generally correct. The thing I am not sure about yet is how much rain comes in the “extension” event.

      And those models do not handle post-tropicals all that well.

  57. Also, the 18Z and 06Z GFS may hold more weight over the next few days. NWS is launching balloons every 6 hours for more soundings.

  60. To kind of complete my thought earlier about Eric’s tweet. I started a message that came out as “He’s wrong.” and sent by accident, which was immediately followed by the failure of my connection, a lock-up of my phone, an end of my break, and a work day that was overloaded, so I never got to send a completed version. It would have said:

    He’s wrong…IF he is looking at the model as a whole. In the short term it has done a splendid job and weighed in on my call a couple days ago of the center staying EAST of Jamaica when many forecasts had it going over the island. If he was looking at the short term performance, he was right on. Beyond a couple days the model forecast was very inconsistent for a few days then started settling in on the current idea.

    1. Thank you, TK, and excellent comment. Seems you had the perfect storm. Drives me crazy when that happens.

    1. 12z GEFS has 3 ensemble members that track the storm center over Syracuse, NY – that’s how far west some of them have come.

      Right now they are split – 50% of the members west of the benchmark and 50% east.

  64. One thing to remember. One year ago, Hurricane Joaquin was forecast by just about every model to head from the Bahamas right up the coast. Only the ECMWF said it was going to sit there and head out to sea eventually. We all said the ECMWF was nuts, its on its own, and was an outlier. Guess what? It was on its own, and turned out to be right. Keep that in mind.

    1. Yes indeed and not to mention Sandy as well with that left hook that the
      other models missed.

      We shall see.

      It is so difficult to hang one’s hat on such an outlier, even if it is the Euro.

      The fact that it has made a significant shift should mean something.
      It did not stick to it’s guns. It like it saying: “OK, you guys might be onto to something, I’ll make an adjustment and re-evaluate next run”.

      Or some such modeleze speak.

      1. Not I…..my mind is cluttered with colorful lines that look like spaghettic…..no more room in the attic.

  65. Very interested to see the 12z Euro ensembles, should be more telling as to how much of a shift west it has really made.

  66. Agree with SAK above. The EURO shifted west near the SE U.S. Coast, proof that it’s seeing what everything else is in the near term.

    In the mid range, I trust it more to handle the 500mb flow at hrs 144 and 168 compared to everything else. It’s quite a difference.

    It’s just going to be frustrating that everything else probably needs another 48 to 72 hrs to get things straight and we may be getting mixed messages all the way to like Thursday or even Friday.

        1. There ya go! That’s what I get for mixing work with
          weather. So sorry for screwing that all up.

          Thanks for straightening me out and nicely as well.
          You could have called me all sorts of names. 😀

  67. For as inconsistent as the EURO has been in the medium and long range, it’s had one consistency, it hasn’t brought Matthew within 3 or 4 hundred miles of New England.

  70. I wonder why they still run the JMA and NAVGEM models………
    Anyone see the track on the 12z NAVGEM, the model that used to be known as NOGAPS that was so bad they probably changed the name hoping nobody would notice?

    3. TK – you may remember this, but our buddy GG and I once came up with names for all of the models back in the day (i.e. the No Good Model, the All’s Very Nice, etc). I came up with one for the NAVGEM recently:

      Not
      A
      Very
      Good
      Environmental
      Model

      It fits, right?

    2. ROTFLMAO

      I not using it to forecast. Just reporting on the model.

      What you posted is hilarious.

      Thank you.

    1. Ok, now where do I get my hands on that?
      That used to be a free site, but I believe it is now subscription.

      You must have gotten that from a tweet somewhere????

      Many thanks

    1. I’d still say odds favor the center staying offshore with the possible exception of the Outer Banks of NC depending on how tucked in it gets passing FL.

      Can’t completely rule out a FL landfall or partial landfall, but I would not bet on it at this point.

  79. God help the people in Haiti. From the NHC….

    RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
    the following areas:

    Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic…15 to 25
    inches, isolated 40 inches
    Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti…8 to 12 inches, isolated
    20 inches
    Eastern Jamaica…5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 to 20 inches
    The Bahamas…8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
    Turks and Caicos Islands…2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
    Northeastern Haiti and the Dominican Republic…1 to 3 inches,
    isolated 5 inches
    Western Jamaica…1 to 2 inches

    1. Oh dear heavens. GettingBetter, if you are reading…and even if you are not…prayers from our entire house for that area and for your friend.

  80. Am I correct that tracks are moving it even further west which would not have as great an impact on New England? I do understand that this is far too early to lock it down but just wondering what current thought is

    1. A further west track down there doesn’t necessarily mean impact on New England. In fact, a further west center could get picked up and kicked out even more directly east because it gets grabbed a little bit sooner.

      1. That’s what I was thinking. Thank you, TK.

        I assume that I am correct also that these tracks will continue to shift one way or the other for a couple more days before they form some sort of consensus??

  81. Major hurricane forecasted not only for Cuba and Hatti but also the Bahammas. At the very least some wave action southeast U.S.

  82. When I read about hurricanes like Matthew I’m a bit less concerned about the degree of damage to our nation (wherever it may hit), and more worried about the absolutely devastating impact such natural disasters tend to have on poor, ill-equipped countries, such as Haiti. The world’s always been an unfair place in that one’s birthplace and country of residence – a random luck of the draw, which all of us on this blog won by virtue of our being residents of the U.S. – have such a profound influence on our well-being, ability to cope with mother nature’s wrath, not to mention the fact that the poorer the country the greater the likelihood of war and famine.

  86. I miss the days of the AVN (Average Verification Never) ETA (Every Time Amiss) and NGM (No Good Model)

    2. For the record, ours were

      All’s Very Nice
      Erroneous Trash Again
      No Good Model

      There was also:
      God-Forsaken Sh*t
      Easily Causes More Wrong Forecasts
      Lovely Fine Model (or Lousy F**king Model)
      Grossly Exaggerated Monstrosity
      Wildly Ridiculous Forecast
      Good For Doing Little

  87. This 18z op run looks a bit more believable.

    Close to the SE U.S., passing off shore New England and maybe the hurricane adds some moisture to the approaching cold front.

  90. Interesting from NWS Upton….they are basically tossing the Euro:

    There are then differences in what happens next for the weekend into
    early next week due to differences in the evolution of the sub-
    tropical ridge and the handling of a trough of low pressure that
    will move in from the west. The ECMWF erodes the sub-tropical ridge
    more so than the GFS/CMC/UKMET and is also flatter with the trough
    coming in from the west. The net effect is the ECMWF takes Matthew
    out to sea this weekend, while most other solutions bring the storm
    towards New England this weekend. It is noted that WPC does not, nor
    has it for the past couple of days, like the ECMWF handling of the
    trough coming in from the west. In deference to the expertise of WPC
    in the long range, have adopted a non-ECMWF approach to Matthew.

    2. Probably the wrong move, just because they don’t like how it’s handling a trough? Have they been verifying the model’s handling of that feature up to this point?

      My guess: The forecaster wants it to come up the coast.

  91. Just in my way home and catching up on the latest – of course devasted to hear the news. I am a huge supporter and advocate for St. Boniface Haiti Foundation – my dear friend Conor Shapiro – President & CEO of SBHF will be on the 10 and 11 news on ABC – his wife is Haitian and I am beyond worried for her family as they live in Fund Des Blancs on the Southern Peninsula – thanks everyone for thoughts and prayers – I have passed them along to the team at SBHF from my WoodsHill blogger family.

    2. Hope that all works out well down there for them. Let’s hope Matthew weakens and or moves to lessen the impact.

  92. 18z GFS looks a little more in line with the Euro op and Ensembles. Kicks the center out east/southeast of ACK by Monday morning. Highest impact Sunday morning through Sunday evening, mostly from the PRE rain event. I guess it remains to be seen how much that PRE come to fruition.
    Looonnnggg way to go for sure, and certainly no convergence of solutions. Things could change, etc etc., all the caveats. BUT….it does look like the GENERAL idea MAY be starting to form.
    I still don’t know why Upton is discounting the Euro.

    2. 12z GFS was pretty much the worst case scenario for SNE and 18z GFS is the best – a miss but still a beneficial 2-3″ of rain from the PRE.

      I have never been impressed with the forecasters in the Upton office.

      1. Looks like a few inches of badly needed rain without the wind destruction that would occur. I think the thing stays far enough off shore to get a little breezy, but nothing too outrageous to cause widespread power outages, tree, and building damage.

  93. This is such a cool storm to watch, but can not feel but worried and sorry for those in the Caribbean who are affected. That amount of rain, by itself causes trouble

  95. Loving the model solutions at least for the moment. As someone above said, we might get the rain without the damage and destruction.

    1. Yeah, uh oh for sure. The situation continues to escalate. Top winds have not gone up but the completion of an “eyewall replacement cycle” has caused the pressure to begin falling again, and more importantly caused the wind field to expand. Actual top winds may start to catch up in the next several hours. A worst case scenario for Haiti.

      2. Yup. We’re out shopping and I just told my wife that the winds will be going up soon.
        Poor Haiti. I feel badly for them.

  97. In the Fwiw department, the 13z 15km Fim takes a Matthew about up the ct river valley or a tad west of there. I am mobile so can’t easily post a link.

  98. A dropsonde into Matthew just reliably measured winds of 166kts/191mph at less than 1,000ft above surface level. That’s an incredible number. Significant wind speed drop-off in the final few hundred feet, but Haiti has a lot of terrain so for many areas the sea-level readings are less important.

    1. Sunday’s the rain day. For whatever we get. Monday should be a little windy, but clearing I would think.

        1. Better chance than not IMO or getting some rain in here Sunday. With the front approaching from the west, it is likely going to draw the moisture north from the storm center even if it is well offshore. The front would have some rain ahead of it regardless even if there was no hurricane.

  102. The bigger issue for Haiti is the prolific rainfall, not the wind. NHC hurricane force wind probabilities are less than 10% for most of the country, with the exception of the western end of the southern peninsula which looks like it is going to get absolutely devastated.

    The tremendous rainfall amounts (isolated amounts up to 40″ per NHC) will be what causes fatalities from massive flooding and mudslides. Haiti is mountainous and the residents have cleared trees from a lot of the terrain for wood burning. Very bad situation.

  103. TK – How did you figure that the Patriots would lose yesterday’s game several weeks in advance? It is one thing to get a bad feeling during practice week or a few hours before kickoff, but it was amazing to do it so far in advance. Based on your forecasts here at WHW you certainly don’t think like most tv mets do…and people in general. 🙂

    I would say that Goodell got the last laugh with the team at 3-1…no way Brady loses to the Bills. It was clear that Brissett’s inexperience showed to say the least.

    So, any thoughts on Brady’s return on Sunday? Do we win? 😉

    1. I’ve always gotten hunches about the future that have panned out. But as I said before, it NEVER works for lottery #’s. 😛

      I actually think the Pats won the battle. Goodell was NOT expecting them to go 3-1. He was hoping for 1-3 or 0-4. The Pats played like crap as a team and I’m not sure they even would have won that game with Brady. We’ll never know for sure.

      1. Well one thing is for sure…Gostkowski is no longer “automatic” and that includes PAT’s as well. I am going to have my heart in my mouth from now on every time he lines up for a kick, regardless of the distance. In fact, I would say that his days of 50+ FG’s are now behind him.

        And I never thought I would say this, but I actually have more faith in Buccholz than in Price, at least for now. 😉

        1. I’ll be blunt – your comments are dumb. Gostkowski has missed ONE extra point in his entire career. The only kickers in NFL history that are more accurate are Justin Tucket and Dan Bailey, both of whom have played 5 years less than him.

          Beyond 50 yards, he has missed 2 FG in the past 5 YEARS. This year he’s 1 for 1. He is the 4th most accurate kicker in NFL history, behind Bailey, Tucker, and Hauschka.

          As for Price vs Buchholz, career vs Cleveland:

          Price 10-2, 2.44 ERA
          Buchholz 2-2 4.85 ERA

          In Cleveland:
          Price 5-0 2.27
          Buchholz 1-1 3.62

          1. Playoff is a different animal, just ask Price:

            Price has pitched in 14 playoff games, started or in from the pen, his team has lost 10 of those 14 games. His post season era is 5.12.

            Clay has started 4 playoff games and his team has won 3 of them. His career post season era is 4.21.

            Price is a different pitcher in the playoffs which has been the biggest knock on him. Clay had a very impressive run in 2013 and is a proven pitcher in pressure games. I would start him in Cleveland.

        2. I’d still take Gostkowski over just about anyone. A couple misses do not make him so-so. I don’t think there is really any kicker that’s automatic. Either way he’s one of the best of all time.

          I’d take Price in a heartbeat.

  104. ECMWF, while closer than the last run, is still well offshore, but a lot faster, passing well SE of the Cape early Monday, before making landfall near Halifax Monday evening. It does bring a lot of rain to Eastern Mass, 2-5″, with some heavier amounts However, amounts drop off rapidly as you head west, with less than 1/2″ west of a line that extends from roughly Concord, NH – Worcester – New Haven.

      1. Can’t imagine what the storm surge must be at les cayas, in the right side of the eye wall, where the shape of the coastline is also concave.

        1. it’s mountainess all the way out to the small piece of land it’s going to cross. 7,700 ft peak out there. SE winds rising over them, rainfall must be prolific and just as much danger from fresh water flooding as there is from wind/surge.

  108. Interesting and pretty sunrise this morning with some angry looking cumulus and brief light/moderate showers passing through with a yellowish/orange tint to the light.

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