Tuesday Forecast

48 Comments

8:48AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 29-DECEMBER 3)
Two low pressure waves will bring periods of rain today and Wednesday, with the main surges in the afternoons and evenings of both days. We may start off today with brief freezing rain in some of the valley areas of north central MA and southern NH as an initial batch of light rain moves through there while the air is still below freezing near the ground, so watch for brief icing in a few locations until late morning. The remainder of the rain from these systems will occur with temperatures above the icing threshold. As the final low pulls away and intensifies in eastern Canada, a gusty westerly wind will overtake the region Thursday and Friday, though it will take a while for the colder air to arrive, so Thursday will be quite mild, and Friday only somewhat cooler. High pressure will move closer and drive a little colder air down from Canada between it and the old low pressure area Saturday, which should be a very nice but chilly early December day.
TODAY: Overcast. A period of light rain north central MA into southern NH this morning may freeze on a few surfaces until about 10AM. More widespread rain developing regionwide this afternoon with pockets of heavier rain possible. Highs 42-49 Boston west and north, 50-58 to the southeast. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, especially late in the day.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain tapers off. Patchy fog. Lows 40-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH and gusty early, then becoming light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain mainly in the afternoon. Highs 45-52, Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Lows 38-45. Highs 45-52 northwest, 52-60 southeast.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Lows 30-38. Highs 44-52.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 25-33. Highs 38-45.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 4-8)
Weak disturbance may bring a few mix/snow showers late December 4 to early December 5 and a brief surge of colder air behind it. Watching for a possible storm system around the middle of the period but timing uncertain, though odds would favor rain over snow as temperatures moderate.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 9-13)
Active Pacific jet stream will send another system toward the region by late in the period after a fair start. Temperatures near to above above normal.

48 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  7. WWA all the way to the coast in Maine and I believe NH too. A small breakaway batch of precip over an area with temps still in the upper 20s to low 30a and calm winds: hopefully the SE winds in southern New England will begin to penetrate into this region soon.

  8. 12z GFS for late next week system may end as a touch of snow but the RAINORAMA parade is going to continue.

  9. I think we see at least a light snow event before December ends. Models will continue to show the cutters and then all of a sudden poof, storm track shifts south a bit.

  10. I am not sold on a rainorama ending as a touch of snow as the 12z GFS shows late next week. Most times the air dries out before the cold air comes in and usually in these situations your lucky to get some flurries. The last good rain to snow event I remember was March 2005 where that morning it was pouring and then by afternoon rain became snow and accumulated into the evening.

  12. TK – At your convenience, can you answer my question above regarding our rainfall deficit? Just curious…Thanks! 🙂

    1. Good heavens – how terrifying. How they made it out is beyond me. How there were no trees across the road is nothing short of a miracle.

  16. An Underachiever. No way we make an inch.

    0.38 inch at my house with the back end approaching. 😀

    Unless some more echoes bubble up, 0.50 inch tops I would say.

  17. NWS Taunton talking about colder times beyond Mid December in today’s discussion…

    Would appear Arctic air presently is locked up round the polar low.
    Indications though that as we go towards mid-December the polar low
    and associated energy becomes displaced. Associated jet stream round
    the maritimes becomes buckled and more amplified. Potentially thus
    we could see shots of Arctic air being introduced as we go deeper
    into Winter. No doubt if the pattern continues we would see such air
    slide S across the Rockies into the C CONUS before sliding E, likely
    moderating. It`s early but worth noting of potential trends down the
    road, something to watch.

  19. Looks like the 12z Euro op has finally caved to the GFS op with the evolution of the storm (or lack thereof) early next week and is now indicating mostly dry weather for us on Monday. Yet, the NWS is going with a rainy solution and talking about a lakes cutter with secondary redevelopment and triple point low over us on Monday. What are they looking at?!? Ensemble means?

  20. just watch, i have a feeling that we see a good storm just around finals where I can not track it because i am in the books. I also think after that lake cutter, we see a small pattern change in that we see some clippers

  21. Comment below from TK – looks like this was inadvertently posted on the previous blog:

    Woods Hill Weather says:
    November 29, 2016 at 6:42 PM

    Temps go up this evening, level off, then fall very slightly into tomorrow morning and kind of hang around in the mild zone tomorrow.

    Thursday may touch 60 in a few spots.

    Friday, take off about 10 degrees.

    Sunday, take off another 5 to 10. Still not exceptionally cold.

    I still think the late Sunday to early Monday threat is minor.

    Split between a system around the 7th or the 9th/10th. One may end up being all we get, but I’m not sure which wave becomes “the one”. Too far away.

    Out on a limb: First general measurable snowfall comes between December 15 and December 21.

      1. Agree with most of what he wrote. I would lean towards one event (rain) around the 9th and push back a potential snow event by a week. Say 20th-27th. Western troughs hang tough and when they ease it is to a flat flow more than an east west ridge / trough shift.

        1. Part of why I kept snowfall amounts down in Boston and at Portland / Portsmouth, even though for inland ME/NH and by extension VT, I went for pretty good snowfall totals this winter.

  24. Does anyone know what caused the 80 mph winds that helped spread the Tennessee fires so quickly ??

    Was it a big scale system that had a lot of wind or was it something on a small scale where perhaps the topography and the heat from the fires generated some kind of wind event ?

    In looking at the weather models the last many days, I don’t recall a big wind event being projected in the Tennessee area …..

    1. My accu rite still not set up. At this rate it will be into the new year. Anyone want to stop by and set it up 🙂 🙂

  28. I measured 0.85″ total rainfall for round 1 in Coventry CT. Hopefully we can equal or exceed that in round 2 later. Every bit helps!

  29. Tom, in response to your comment above, I believe there was a strong front approaching Tennessee yesterday that prompted high wind warnings in the mountains for gusts in excess of 60mph. The fire started Sunday near one of the peaks and the high winds helped it spread easily with the extremely dry ground conditions. The fires occurred near the higher peaks of the Smokies along the ridge line so no question that the winds are going to be higher at that elevation when you have systems approaching from the west. Similar to some extent to what we see in the white mountains.

  31. GFS has been showing a rainorama ending as a touch of snow for that same time period for a few runs now.

Comments are closed.