Wednesday Forecast

55 Comments

9:02AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 30-DECEMBER 4)
On this final day of November we get one more wave of low pressure approaching and the next round of rain will arrive from southwest to northeast this afternoon and continue tonight, with a few rounds of heavy rain for some areas. As December gets underway it all gets out of here and we have a mild but windy day Thursday, followed by dry weather and a cooling trend Friday through the weekend.
TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog this morning. Rain developing southwest to northeast this afternoon. Highs 48-56. Wind light E.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain, heavy at times. Slight chance of thunder. Lows 42-48. Wind E 5-15 MPH shifting to N.
THURSDAY: Cloudy start Cape Cod. Otherwise, sun and passing clouds. Highs 52-60. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 32-39. Highs 47-54.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 25-33. Highs 43-50.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-30. Highs 38-45.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 5-9)
Risk of snow showers early December 5 then fair and cool. Watching 1 or 2 waves of low pressure that may bring some unsettled weather around December 7 and/or 9. Not quite sure of the evolution of this yet. Odds favor rain as it warms up somewhat.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 10-14)
Overall pattern remains mild. Another Pacific system threatens mainly rain by later in the period.

55 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  4. Thanks TK !

    If I am reading the ob correctly, Plymouth received 1.29 inches of rain in yesterday’s event. I’m going to guess Marshfield did receive over an inch as well, as it consistently poured between 5 and 7pm yesterday, with light to moderate rains before and a bit after this time frame.

    The reservoir on Rte 3A between Marshfield and Scituate looks slightly improved. Only about 10 to 20% of the reservoir floor is now exposed. It maxed out a few weeks ago where I’d say more than half of the reservoir floor was dry.

    1. Totals yesterday were highly variable from location to location.

      I think Logan only received something like 0.43 inch.
      Beverely .56 inch which was the same total at my house.

      1. Not surprised to hear that.

        The radar last night looked pretty solid dark green in the southern third of New England, but once you got from say Hingham westward to the southern part of 128 and points north, the echos looked mostly light green.

  5. JpDave, you should go to the NESC page on FB and read the thread from midnight to after 3AM. It was an adventure…

      1. Will do. Balancing computer time with odds/ends up here this morning, a decoration barrage with mom one more time this afternoon, and finishing up the final bits and pieces with my son tonight. 🙂

        1. Well that is GREAT news. It is always nice to have the decorating complete. Actually, as I think of it, that may make you sad. If that is the case, I have some odds and ends here that do not seem to be getting done 😉

  8. December 1st to March 31st is when I really don’t like these rainorama’s. I am looking for anything that gives a chance at some snow and the best I see is late next week a rainorama ending as a bit of snow for parts of interior SNE shown by 12z GFS.

  9. I did see this one tweet from NY NJ PA weather on the EURO for Monday. Hopefully will see some of this here
    Studying ECMWF. Might have to change showers to snow showers for Monday AM.

  10. I’m kind of glad to see that the 12z EURO seems to have offered a different solution on its long term.

    There’s several reasons I can’t see the likelihood of a southern New England accumulating snow event any time soon.

    1) There is a weak La Nina on going. I believe that usually means a mild to warm and dry southeast US and when I hear that, I think of a decent to strong SE US Ridge. With that, getting systems to track underneath New England is going to be difficult.

    2) Canada’s not that cold. I kind of go by the rule that to get December snow in southern New England, there really has to be a colder than normal airmass in southeastern Canada to combat the relative mild atlantic ocean.

    3) If the arctic cold ever crosses the pole onto our side of the hemisphere, when it first does, I think its most likely to go southward into western Canada and down into the western US or into the intermountain west. And when air drops down into the west, usually warm air surges north in the east.

    You never know, even in a warm pattern, you can sneak a snowfall in, but I think its going to be a while before the first local accumulating snow.

  11. Blizzard 0f 2016 is a perfect example which dumped a lot of snow for NYC Philly Baltimore and D.C. last winter in a warm pattern.

  12. Looks like the worst has passed by Atlanta, but just a while ago, the city and nearby areas were under a tornado warning.

  13. Despite what the good Tom has said, the 12Z Euro has RAISED the ANTE on snow
    for SNE. Still keeps about 4 inches for boston, but CONSIDERABLY more inland.

    Here is a link to snow map and attendant surface and precipitation map

    http://imgur.com/a/NFeDQ

    1. I guess it has …… On that second image, is the EURO showing heavy snow with a low center north of us and gusty westerly winds ?? That doesn’t make sense to me. I was simply looking at the track of the primary low and where a secondary low was forming (I think near NYC). That snow map by the EURO seems very strange to me.

      1. Strange as it may seem, that is now 2 consecutive runs where
        it shows this snow. Shall we go for a 3rd? 3rd one is the charm.

        It will probably go poof with the 0Z run. 😀

      1. i would be more interested of something coming in behind that storm and see how it travels up the cold front.

        1. Yeah, I’m not holding my breath, but it is nice to see
          snow showing on the maps now. Sooner or later
          it WILL materialize. 😀

  14. What is amazing with that storm last year for D.C. Philly, NYC and Baltimore is that all those cities got there normal snowfall and some cases above what they normally get for an entire winter season. If that storm could have tracked a little further north.

  15. The GFS for a few runs have been showing a rainorama ending a touch of snow for the interior but very little if any accumulating snow.

    1. we shall see what the 0Z Euro brings. IN the meantime, the 18Z GFS will be coming out in an hour or so. 😀

  19. Same pattern through mid December.
    I want to know what “fake weather” has to say about why the early onset of winter didn’t happen. I want a scientific explanation. Oh wait, never mind. It’s called “wishcasting”. That is all. 🙂

    1. Atlanta sister in law said about three quarters of an inch south of Atlanta. But she also said area where fires are in TN got a bit more than 2 inches with some hopefully due tomorrow. They had some thunder. But then that is Atlanta. I may have to sleep with windows open just in case there is thunder

  22. 0.91″ at Logan yesterday…final but likely more to come through morning.

    JPDave…similar amount on your rain gauge?

  23. and just like that all the models show either a rain event or way out west in the plains/western lakes. No snow

  24. “Fake weather” refers to the social media sites run by non-mets that claim to know it all, and have their followers tricked into it.

    Updating…

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