Headlines… Thunderstorms Monday, heat blast later this week.
Discussion… A very warm and muggy Monday may turn quite stormy as a cold front bumps into the muggy air, setting off thunderstorms especially this afternoon & evening. Thunderstorms may become severe in some areas, with the primary threat being from damaging straight-line winds. The front will pass through at night but sit near the New England South Coast Tuesday, and one more disturbance coming along may trigger a few showers. High pressure will build in with drier air for Wednesday but move offshore into the heat pump position for Thursday through Saturday. While this happens, high pressure will also build in the upper atmosphere later in this week, and the heat will really blast in. The ridge may weaken and a cold front may provide some relief by the end of next weekend.
Boston Area Forecast…
TODAY: Variably cloudy and hazy. Isolated showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Thunderstorms may be strong to severe. Very warm and muggy. High 85 to 90. Wind SW 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely during the evening hours, diminishing to a few showers later at night. Any thunderstorms may be strong to severe. Warm and humid. Low 70 to 75. Wind SW to W 5 to 15 mph.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Warm and humid. High 82 to 87. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 65. High 86.
THURSDAY: Hazy sunshine. Low 70. High 94.
FRIDAY: Hazy sunshine. Low 74. High 99.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. PM thunderstorms. Low 77. High 96.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 68. High 86.
Good Morning Everyone! Hope you all had a great weekend. I am going to be keeping an eye to the skies this afternoon with the potential for severe weather. The storm prediction center continues to have us in the slight risk category for severe weather with a 15% chance for hail 30% for wind and a 5% chance for tornadoes. Will see if anything changes when this gets updated just before 9AM this morning.
Taking in these factors along with some models are saying Thunderstorm Index is a 3 which is the SEVERE Level of the 1-4 scale. Keep an eye to the sky and if it looks threatening head indoors.
Thank you TK and JimmyJames!!!
Jimmy, the further north you travel, are you more likely to run into T-storms? Thinking of going to NH today.
Thanks, TK and JimmyJames – I just looked at the Eastern USA visible satellite loop and I am hoping that more clouds will fill in before that line of thunderstorms move this way so that there will be less sun and the chance of fewer severe storms. But considering the hot July sun, I don’t expect that to happen.
I am not looking forward to the hot weather coming up.
Also – is Bret still going to move northeast and possibly be a threat to somewhere along the east coast? Will the front coming through here tonight/tomorrow morning have any effect on Bret?
Bret is forecasted to remain a tropical storm and its projected path is to take it away from the east coast.
The highlights for us this week is the POTENTIAL for severe weather today and quite possibly the hottest
weather of the summer season coming later this week.
Thanks, JJ!
New Hampshire is in the slight risk zone for severe weather today. I would not cancel any plans today but just keep an eye to that sky. I am noticing a line of showers and storms in Upstate NY. No watches or warnings out for that line but it looks to be moving southeast. The storm prediction center should be giving their updated day 1 outlook shortly and it will be interesting to see if the percentages for hail, wind, and tornadoes has changed.
Thanks
JJ, well done!
I am looking at the northeast radar and it appears that the thunderstorms in central NY are moving fairly fast. Could this have bust potential?
I am wondering the same thing on a bust potential. It will be interesting to see what happens to this line of showers and storms. There was an area earlier this morning in Vermont and New Hampshire but that faded out.
Latest update date from the Storm Prediction Center
Hail remains at 15%
Wind 30% but 15% far Northern MA into New Hampshire
Tornado 5% for CT, RI, MA, and just into the soutnern portion of New Hampshire
I am sorry I have been so awol here. I have been extremely busy and haven’t had much chance to comment. I do usually check in though.
NWS indicates that the main threat is Straight line wind damage as the wind
profiles aloft are more differing speeds rather than sheer. Given that, they still indicated a chance for a few ISOLATED super cells and tornados, maintaining that the threat would not be as great as 6/1. (surface SW, aloft NW, giving some sheer)
We’ll see what happens. Hopefully we’ll have a bust on severe weather and just get some garden vatiety types.
Old Salty looking forward to hear your thoughts throughout the day. With that line of showers and storms heading in from Upstate NY will see if the line hold together and if it moves through will the atmosphere have enough time to destablize for more activity later today?
JJ
The current line is definitely weakening, However, looking at the sky outside of my office window in Boston, there “appears” to be enough sunshine to destabilize the atmosphere. We won’t know for sure until later, but it looks to be cooking out there.
I don’t want to see any severe weather.
TK and JJ keep up the great work. Thank you both.
Just read the latest discussion from the NWS and they seem to feel this area of showers which has weakened as you pointed out Old Salty is round 1 and another round of showers and storms will form later this afternoon and this evening. To me the key is once this area goes through will we get a good amount of clearing which will allow the atmosphere to destablize or will it stay cloudy and lessen our chance for big storms???
JJ just read that discussion as well. Interesting to note:
SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE SW
WITH STRONG MID-LVL FLOW OUT OF THE NW…
AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTICELL
CLUSTERS AND LEWPS…BUT WITH S/SW SFC FLOW AND FAST MID-LVL FLOW
OUT OF THE W/NW…COUPLED WITH SHEAR ORTHOGONAL TO THE SFC COLD
FRONT…SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES CANT BE RULED OUT PER
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK.
This is mainly with the 2nd threat for later. As you say, how much sunshine will there
be behind the mcs threat??
This is the set up that gives NE many of the tornados it does get, not to say there
will be any, just that it is a set up that potentially can produce a tornado somewhere
in the area. I wonder in addition to a Severe T=Storm watch, IF there will be a tornado watch?? any thoughts? many thanks
OK, well….quite a week to be camping. Storms today……Last summer, we sat in our popup in southeast Maine during a thunderstorm. Vicious lightning, wont make that mistake again. My future goal is to get A/C installed on the popup. We’ll see how camping in the intense heat later this week goes.
This MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) has really weakened on its approach to SNE but still could produce showers over SNE. Currently no severe weather with this line. The cold front is till back in Upstate NY but I am wondering with this MCS coming through will the take away some of the energy.
There are currently no disscussions from the SPC regarding a watch. I am thinking if any watch is issued it will be a severe thunderstorm watch.
David Brown on his Ch. 5 nooncast hinted that with so much cloudiness over us now, severe weather could be quite limited later this afternoon and evening. As long as we don’t see much sunshine, we might be in relatively good shape…let’s see what happens, or “doesn’t” happen later.
Mostly cloudy here in Boston as of this posting.
Storm Prediction Center has come down with their percentages
5% hail
15% wind
2% tornado
This decaying MCS looks to be our saving grace and I don’t see anything as of now forming to our west
Looking at the Eastern US Satellite Loop (yes – I like looking at that sometimes! 🙂 ) there is an area of clearing near the end of the clouds and when you look at the dopplar radar you can see the clearing also in NY. I am not sure where the front is now exactly, but I suppose depending on whether that clearing expands or fills in might make a difference in whether we get much or any severe weather. I hope not!
Meaning – I hope we don’t get any severe weather.
The clearing is going to be the key and if this cloud cover holds this will lessen the chance for severe weather. If we don’t see severe weather we can thank that decaying MCS.
NWS expects developing sunshine to redevelop storms, expecially this evening.
Latest radar shows NEW activity in VT. Fasten your seat belts. Who knows what’s
up????
Hi, Old Salty – well, at this moment, the sun is bright in Sudbury.
It looks like the next batch of rain coming in from the west and as you say, Old Salty, up in VT. There are more yellows showing up on the doppler in all these areas.
I guess we aren’t out of the woods yet!
Blue sky with white clouds arrived in Framingham about 10 minutes ago – it sure didn’t look as if we were going to see any more sun this afternoon
Just read a special weather statement that covers parts of CT, RI, and MA and they are indicating a few severe storms later today.
NWS Statement:
CONSIDERING THE PREV DISCUSSION OF CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS…SEE
BELOW…AND PRESENT TRENDS…FEEL THE BEST CHCS OF CONVECTIVE WX
WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. WOULD EXPECT
INITIAL CONVECTION TO FLARE UP OVER PORTIONS OF W PA/NH. MAY EVEN
SEE SOME CONVECTION BREAK OUT OF N NEW ENGLAND AS WELL…ALTHO
CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER. THE BETTER UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE TO
THE S THRU THE MID-SECTION OF THE NE CONUS…AND AS THE COLD AIR
SHUNTS S BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT…EXPECTING
CONVECTIVE WX WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL. THREATS CONTINUE FOR
POTENTIAL SMALL HAIL…DAMAGING WINDS…AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
CURRENT THINKING FOR THE BEST CHCS OF CONVECTIVE WX IS ALONG AND S
OF THE MASS PIKE AT PRESENT. THE SITUATION STILL BEARS MONITORING
AT THIS TIME.
Best parameters for severe weather are now to the south of Boston, but cannot completely rule out strong to isolated severe storms to the north. Even with somewhat rain-cooled air across alot of eastern MA, it has become very muggy and is still somewhat unstable. I think if the Boston area itself is going to see strong to severe storms later, it will be sometime this evening and rooted out of an area of storms just starting to fire up over Upstate NY. Anything south of there should pass south of Metro Boston in the NW flow aloft. We are starting to bust out into a little bit of sunshine here NW of Boston as I write this, so there is some fuel for later storms.
Thanks JJ for keeping an eye on things. Starting a bit later this year, I’ll be around pretty much all the time to keep an eye on current weather and keep everyone updated.
Thanks for posting that Old Salty. Clearly from that were not out of the woods just yet.
Thunderstorm Index being downgraded to a 2 since the severe weather threat seems to have lessened. I am not going to rule out spots in SNE seeing a strong or severe storm but it is not going to be as big as an event as I thought earlier this morning.
We’ll have to watch the storms forming in Upstate NY & northern New England through 10 or 11PM for northern and eastern MA.
Storm Prediction Center issued a mesoscale discussion thinking a watch is possible with areas in Upstate NY. There is an area of showers and storms forming north of NY State and will see what happens to that area.