Sunday Forecast

60 Comments

12:17PM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 11-15)
Heatwave today through Tuesday for many locations except “the usual cool spots”. It all ends Tuesday as a cold front comes southward out of eastern Canada and is followed by a cooler high pressure area at midweek.
TODAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Highs 77-87 South Coast, 88-95 elsewhere. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 64-72. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. More humid. Highs 77-87 South Coast, 88-95 elsewhere. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and hazy. Humid. Lows 66-74. Wind SW under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Hazy. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 77-87 South Coast, 88-95 elsewhere. Wind W 10-20 MPH becoming variable to N late. Strong winds possible near any storms.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs in the 70s, coolest East Coast.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs in the 70s, coolest South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 16-20)
Bermuda High set-up brings episodic scattered showers/thunderstorms but often rain-free, warm, and humid weather during this period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 21-25)
A more zonal pattern returns with a few episodes of showers/storms from passing disturbances and more variable temperatures.

60 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

    1. TK, what are your current thoughts on severe possibilities for Tuesday?

      Some parameters are pretty robust. So far, SPC is downplaying it and the NWS doesn’t appear to be on board just yet, although they have not ruled it out.

      Still 2 days out and time to monitor it more. I guess the final call would be
      made Sometime on Tuesday as is often the case in these situations.

      All I will say at this point is that it has my ATTENTION. 😀

  5. Thanks TK
    GFS very consistent with best instability for SNE between 2pm – 5pm.
    Looking at the COD site sounding for 12z GFS indicating Tornado for Boston area with severe in other places.

        1. I am not concerned right at the moment with tornado potential. Strong winds look to be the main threat should these storms fire. I think its going to be like what happened back on the 31st of May not widespread but isolated strong severe storms certainly a possibility.

        2. That being said, the tornado threat is zero, but currently, I don’t see it as much of a threat. We shall see if that changes as we get closer.

            1. I thought the SPC would have at least part of SNE in marginal risk for Tues. Will see if that changes tomorrow.

                1. Very true. I remember a couple summer’s ago before they did the marginal risk category they had us in the 5% chance for storms. Later that morning they upgraded us to slight followed by a severe thunderstorm watch and thunderstorm that produced quarter size hail and wind in my neighborhood.

  7. 2 PM at the airport. Still only 88. Wind SW and busy.

    Hmmm, a rare day where temps actually under achieve????

    OR does it spike up later????

    1. Westfield at 93 and 90 at Chicopee Falls / Westover Air Force Base, MA

      So as Tom alluded to, perhaps the high temperature hits later today, perhaps 5 or even 6 PM?????

  8. Almost there. 89 and DP back to 66

    Which brings to mind another song that I forget about but always loved.

  9. 12Z Euro a little bit more robust for Tuesday now.

    Total totals 50-52 and SWEAT index at 425-450
    SWEAT= Severe Weather Threat Index

    TOTAL TOTALS

    56 – Scattered severe storms

    Operational significance of The Sweat Index:

    150-300 – Slight Severe
    300-400 – Severe Possible
    400+ – Tornadic Possible

    http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/304/

    So there you go. Euro is inconsistent at best, but does hint at the very least isolated severe storms and could be a whole lot worse.

    Getting interestinger and interestinger. 😀

  10. I think at the very least isolated strong severe storms for Tuesday as that front cuts through the heat and humidity in place.

    1. Neither in my humble opinion.
      It will be dropping down from the NNW to Straight North, But not
      from the NNE to NE like a true BD front.

      In my opinion it could still be capable of igniting some decent storms.

      let’s see what TK has to say.

      1. It’s not a TRUE back-door but a hybrid. North-to-south moving as a wave goes by, its push aided by high pressure to the north, but the wind will be north, then east, then variable, then southeast, then south as the piece of high pressure comes down then shifts east with time.

      3. As a preview and perhaps a comparison to what TK has to say,
        here is the latest thinking from the NWS:

        Tuesday…

        Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity some of which
        has the potential to become strong to severe with the main threats
        of large hail and damaging winds, at least heavy rain and lightning.
        Along a sweeping cold frontal boundary associated with mid-latitude
        energy over Canada acting as a lifting mechanism, will see a narrow
        ribbon of deep-layer moisture with precipitable waters up to 2″. In
        an environment of steep lapse rates yielding MU and MLCape values of
        around 3-4k j/kg within weak W/NW shear of 20-25 kts, the convective
        mode of ordinary to multi-cellular storms is favored. Longevity of
        storms in question given weak environmental shear and implications
        on the balance of resultant cold pools, however convergently forced
        given the aforementioned cold front and also perhaps by an onshore
        sea-breeze. CAPE, though thin and tall throughout the column, is
        sufficient within hail growth zones and above. This along with wet
        bulb zero heights around 12 kft agl with the likelihood of dry air
        entrainment, both throughout the column and within the boundary-
        layer (lending to inverted-V profiles), can not rule out either
        large hail and/or damaging winds (with descending cold pools more so
        if lofted above 25 kft). Still think isolated to scattered activity,
        more so in regions of cold front / sea-breeze interaction. Analog
        probabilities from CIPS still signal a 60-70 percent chance of at
        least 1 severe weather report, especially around the NYC tri-state
        region. Most of the activity during the afternoon per consensus of
        forecast guidance, clearing out during the evening and overnight.

  15. I’ll address the Tuesday set-up shortly. Been busy about the homestead today.

  16. Quiz.

    What is the record high temperature for Boston in June.

    A, 98
    B. 99
    C. 100
    D. 101

    Answer later today.

    3. I’ll go with D. I don’t know about Boston but I recall a very hot June 18 at a horse show in the mid 1990s

  18. I wonder if next Sunday will be another watcher. Weather discussion from meteorologist Mike Cameron of WFSB in CT. Hopefully TK could chime in on this and if he agrees.
    Showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday. If some of the models are correct, they could be strong. The cold front portion of the weekend storm will be approaching. This front will be collecting moisture along itself. At the same time, the jet stream wind aloft will be increasing while also “diffluent” (in essence, air molecules will be spreading apart, which causes air closer to the ground to rise). Sunshine may break out for several hours during the alter morning and early afternoon as a ribbon of dry air precedes the front. This sunshine will heat the lower levels of the atmosphere into the low and middle-80s, destabilizing the atmosphere. These events, in turn, might set the stage for stronger thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Keep in mind it’s early in the forecast cycle

    1. It would be an awesome birthday present ….just in case anyone should have a birthday Sunday. Not to mention Father’s Day

      1. Vicki I believe what Mike Cameron mentioned is what TK was talking about the other day. Hopefully he could chime in on that statement from Mike Cameron’s blog I posed here.

  21. NWS made my job easy. My concern is timing of cold front being good for southern MA, CT, RI. Also, sea breeze boundary (preferably from South Coast), a possible weak surface trough moving eastward across SNE from W to E just ahead of the cold front, and maybe a little extra impulse aloft with colder air.

    I like the idea of only isolated stuff possible southern NH and northern MA, with most stuff getting going to the south of the Mass Pike in the afternoon, but cells being pulse variety with each individual cell being short-lived.

    I agree with NWS on the hail & damaging wind threat. Hail with it being cold enough aloft and not having much trouble with tall storms even if briefly, so tend to see a small hail threat versus a larger one that they mention.

    Wind damage very possible as brief cells max out then gust out as they collapse. This is when we will need to watch interactions of outflow boundaries and the possible seabreeze boundary and trough for other storms to fire.

    As for next weekend? Take any guess you want. You have just as much chance as anyone else of being right or wrong. It’s too far away to say anything other than it gets humid and the threat of showers/storms will not be absent Friday-Sunday.

  25. LATEST runs hinting at a faster timing for the front tomorrow which could limit
    T-Storm activity. We shall see.

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