Wednesday Forecast

61 Comments

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 4-8)
High pressure sinks to the south of New England and sends a warm southwesterly flow into the region today. A moisture-starved cold front drops into southern New England by early Thursday then sits close-by just to the south through Friday before moving back north as a warm front early Saturday. A cold front will then push through from west to east on Sunday but not have a whole lot of push to it as high pressure starts to strengthen off the East Coast.
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75 South Coast, 75-82 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of showers overnight. Lows 58-64. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 70-78, coolest Cape Cod. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few episodes of rain possible. Lows in the 50s. Highs from the middle 60s to lower 70s.
SATURDAY: Clouds followed by sun. Lows from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the lower 70s to around 80.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 9-13)
Tropical moisture from the south will likely move northward along a nearby frontal boundary and bring significant rain October 9 and possibly into October 10. For now going with a cooler/drier period of weather October 11 followed by a quick warm-up to end the period and possibly even more unsettled weather before it’s over. Low confidence on the second half of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 14-18)
Expect a dry and cool start to this period followed by a warming trend, and a threat of wet weather again by mid to late period.

61 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  3. I guess it appears that October will have above normal rainfall and our mini-drought will be over.

  6. Thanks TK.

    Tropical Depression 16 has formed in the southwest Caribbean Sea. The NHC will issue their first advisory on the system at 11AM. Will be bound for the northern Gulf coast, though wind shear should keep it in check in the Gulf.

  8. When was the last time we had a really stellar fall foliage, especially in SNE? I honestly can’t remember the last time our fall landscape was dominated by vibrant colors. We are either coming off serious drought or there’s been too much rainfall, or cool followed by late season warmth. All work to inhibit and mute the fall colors. This year the maples in particular are in rough shape. Tar spots and delayed effects of drought are all but eliminating the usual bright colors of maples. Most maples in my area are just brown and the leaves are dropping.

    1. I was wondering the same the other day, Ace. What leaves are left here after the gypsy moths are just dull and see to be falling prematurely. When we were in Framingham, it was tar spot and the winter moths. Between disease, drought and insects, our poor trees sure are struggling.

      2. I was going to ask same as Ace. I recall a lot of comments that it was dull. But something makes me think it suddenly improved. I’ll have to look back on the blog.

        1. Well, I will take some comfort in the fact that loss of memory does not only apply to the old. Ace, check your discussion with me on October 15 last fall. Seems we both have a short memory compared to Coastal’s.

          1. Last year had a period of about a week where some of the still healthy maples showed a splash of vibrant color. But it didnt last long around here. Up north was a good year.

            1. SNE foliage hasn’t been that spectacular much of this century. Back in my day even Boston had some decent color by Columbus Day. Now it takes until early/mid November for anything close to vibrant colors.

  9. I notice based on the outlook above that no long term crisp fall temps. Will October temps overall likely end up above normal as well?

    Hard to believe that the tropics are still so active going into mid month.

  10. Nothing more than a depression down, as of now, in the southwest Caribbean.

    Recon plane finding pressure of 1006/1007 mb and a max flight wind of 29 knots.

  11. Like yesterday, the 12z run of the EURO is more intense with the tropical system in the Gulf.

    At 96 hrs, projected pressure down to 978 mb.

      1. My Bad: Actually….

        2017 Atlantic hurricane season began on
        Thursday, June 1
        and ends on
        Thursday, November 30

        1. I’d say November 30 is relatively close to Dec 1 😉

          So does it go through Nov 30 end of day or Dec 1 start of day 😆

            1. With global warming, one if these years there may be named storms going into December as well. It wouldn’t shock me.

              This hurricane season has been absolutely crazy!

              1. Above average in activity? Yes. Crazy? I wouldn’t call it that. It’d call it an active period with a fair amount of intense storms. I feel that the word ‘crazy’ applied to meteorological statistics dilutes the actual meaning of such statistics.

                And we’ve already had named storms after the season is official over and before it’s officially started, several times through our history of observing these events. So far we have not observed any significant trends regarding the length of seasons related to any kind of climate change.

                In fact, for this year, only the Atlantic is a hot spot. Everything else is almost exactly normal, coming off a long period of relative quiet.

  13. The 12z Euro paints an interesting scenario.

    Somewhere between the mid-Atlantic and just north of New England, the EURO, in this projection must have the mid-latitude low and the remnants of the tropical system merge.

    In the mid-atlantic, the pressure of the tropical system is 991mb, but when its past New England, the low has deepened to 983mb.

    Perhaps a wet, briefly windy period from the south somewhere between hr 144 and hr 168 which would be next Tuesday, I believe.

    2. I remember that storm vividly! I was 11 years old growing up in Amsterdam NY and could not believe my eyes when I woke up that morning. It was not forecast at all, right up to the night before. We had about 6″ there as well and it was the heaviest snow I have seen in my life. All the trees were fully leafed out and there was a tremendous about of trees/branches down as well as power outages.

      1. Oddly, I do not recall it which surprise me as I typically relate events to important dates and October 4 is my mom’s birthday.

        1. I believe it was mainly a cold rain and wind storm in SNE. The heavy wet snow was confined primarily to upstate NY and VT.

  16. I’m supposed to head down to Sarasota Sunday morning hopefully dry air to the west of system holds down intensity.

  17. Well, our weather is rather ho-hum. Beautiful, but ho-hum nonetheless. The October light in New England on a sunny day (and we tend to get lots of them in October) is my favorite of all.

    Needless to say, our friends in Northwestern Europe have a different kind of autumn: the opposite of ho-hum. Another in a steady stream of North Atlantic gales is approaching the Netherlands overnight. Wind gusts of up to 75mph are expected tomorrow along the coast. The satellite views of the low pressure areas as they approach the British Isles invariably show the distinct comma. Sometimes these systems are so powerful that they become hurricanes, one of the more infamous storms being the tempest that hit Ireland, England, and the Netherlands on January 25th, 1990. This proves that even over cool ocean water weather systems (without originating in the tropics) can and do evolve that produce hurricane-force winds. Ever wondered why the trees in Scotland are short and stubby, or simply non-existent in many areas. Trees in Holland are taller, but not nearly as tall as ours. And, there are far fewer of them. Moreover, many have been cut down over the centuries to make way for farmland, construction of buildings and homes, etc … The Netherlands is about 8% forest (and most of that is man-made). Compare that to Massachusetts or any other New England state. The difference is huge.

  19. Associated Press is reporting a massive wave of butterflies that is lighting up Denver weather radar. The “lacy, cloud-like pattern drifting across a Denver-area radar screen turned out to be a 70-mile-wide (110-kilometer) wave of butterflies, forecasters say.”

  20. Someone said today that the patriots have their own meteorologist. I can’t find anything about that. Does anyone know if this is accurate

  21. Talking about Butterflies, we shall see how the Monarchs have done this year. They have been in a steady decline for years due to the awful pesticides and other chemicals being used ( in the fly over states). This summer though I have to say I saw a massive increase in them which I was happy about, of course i was on nantucket which has some what stricture rules about pesticides and other stuff but when I got home I also saw monarchs. 🙂

    1. I have noticed more of them this year than I have seen in any of the last several. I was visiting my mom yesterday when a huge one flew right by her back door.

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