Friday Forecast

105 Comments

7:11AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 2-6)
A warmer push of air holding some tropical moisture today interacting with a front in the region will create episodic showers and even a few possible thunderstorms, with the greatest push coming late tonight and early Saturday as a wave of low pressure moves by the region. This low will intensify rapidly as it crosses Maine Saturday and pull the front through, bringing a cooler air mass along with period of strong winds into the region later Saturday. High pressure moves for a much more tranquil and very nice day Sunday. But this high won’t hang around and the next area of moisture arrives with a warm front Monday, turning the weather unsettled again. We may enter a very warm air mass by Tuesday if things move along as expected. Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Scattered to numerous rain showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 62-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Scattered to numerous rain showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Cloudy with rain showers likely in the morning. Variably cloudy with a couple more passing showers and a slight chance of thunder west to east afternoon followed by clearing. Highs 60-68 early then falling into the 50s during the afternoon and 40s evening. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W and increasing to 15-30 MPH with gusts 40-55 MPH by late in the day.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind W 15-30 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing overnight.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind light NW to light variable.
MONDAY: Clouding over. PM rain. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 7-11)
Cold front brings rain showers November 7. Fair and cooler weather November 8-11.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 12-16)
Milder and unsettled start to the period then cooler and drier weather returns.

105 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  3. Thank you TK. A different direction for the wind this morning. Our peak Gust was 14 with fairly sustained around 5. Its 66 with a 61 DP and 0.19 inch rain

  5. Thanks TK.

    Squall line about to move through here in Albany. This has not been well modeled, even by the HRRR. It’s very well defined, albeit not very “tall” with limited thunder/lightning. Convection continues to dominate the fall.

  6. Norton NWS office has backed off on talk about rotating storms.
    Just concentrating on some heavy rain and then a possible High Wind event after
    after FROPA tomorrow.

  9. @ericfisher · 15h15 hours ago

    Euro Weeklies…advertising a big Midwest cold shot toward mid-Nov but otherwise turning fairly benign and perhaps less stormy for us here in New England later in the month. Not expecting much in the way of early-winter shenanigans here.

    1. From discussion here on the blog yesterday, I was beginning to get
      that idea. I’d rather have that kind of weather now, than in the dead of Winter.

      Previously, I had some good vibes regarding this Winter (read that many snow changes for snow enthusiasts). Now, I’m not getting those good vibes.

      Time will tell.

  10. @ericfisher · 15h15 hours ago

    This year’s winter outlook is a bear. We’ll have ours out in a couple weeks. Interesting that so much of the seasonal model guidance is in strong agreement though.
    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1058139014769725440

    Eric goes on to say in the comments section of the tweet that he thinks it will be a late start to the winter with the better cold/snow chances second half of the winter. Does not see a repeat to the big Feb warmup we had this past year. He sounds confident on the temps, not so much on the snow totals.

  11. @ericfisher · 14h14 hours ago

    I don’t really see any signs pointing toward it, but we are ‘due’ for a dud winter. They have generally been very regular every 5 years or so.

    2011-12
    2006-07
    2001-02
    1994-95
    1990-91

    Golden age of the snow lover in SNE.

    1. Please forgive me all but I would love nothing more than a dud winter. I would even print T shirts saying “I ❤️ a dud winter” if it would help.

      1. hahahaha – hi Mama – always fun to see you here. My youngest and her husband are playing with making tee shirts. She – much to my dismay – would agree with you and probably be happy to make you a tee !!! Hope all is well in your town. I have a photo to share with you. I thought of you when a saw it last night. It’ll take me a few minutes if you are reading.

      1. It is and I absolutely LOVE IT! There is a reason it is considered the seventh most peaceful town in the state.

  13. Watching everyone try to find possible snow events starting in late October and into November reminds me of myself wishing for the first bout of heat in April and into May.

    And of course, the summer warmth usually doesn’t set in until late June or early July, but because you have wanted it so much, it feels like you’ve been waiting forever.

    And with some exceptions, true, consistent winter in New England is really mid January, especially February and reluctant to give ground in March.

    1. I love, love, love your first paragraph….but also your entire comment. It is exactly the same, isn’t it. Important for us all to remember.

    2. As a kid growing up, I remember true Winter starting around 12/5-12/15
      for the most part. Some exceptions, but we often started ice skating
      on the ponds the first week or 2 in December. I remember playing football
      in the snow on 12/5.

      I am not ready to give up on this Winter, but so far I don’t like
      what I am seeing.

      1. I also recall ponds being frozen over by very early December. November was of course colder also. Yes, a day or two of higher temps with an Indian summer (loosely termed) but as a rule. And I’m with you. I refuse to give up on winter. I can’t tell you if I like what I’m seeing because I’m not looking 😉 🙂

  14. The season are changing. Summer has been on average warmer every year fall as well. Winter is variable around here. Spring it takes longer, to come and is shorter as summer encroaches it.

  15. It looks to me as if the pattern we’re getting ourselves into is an early season version of the “snow lover’s curse”. A combination of warm and wet periods, like the current one, and cold and dry periods, which may be the rule for the second week of this month. The prevailing air mass we’ll likely being seeing after the big midweek storm over the central US will be more than capable of supporting snow, but I don’t think we’ll take advantage. Certainly no way to tell if this sort of pattern drags into the early part of winter. I don’t think anyone is really going to have much confidence on their winter outlook this year.

  16. Tomorrow evening behind the front could get interesting. We’ll likely be seeing wind gusts up to 50mph as we rapidly start mixing behind the front. Combined with very wet soil and in many cases fully leafed trees, I would expect some downed trees and power outages (and many leaves to rake up come Sunday!)

  17. Thank you, TK.

    I do think it’s too early to know what winter will bring. I remember very well November and December 2014 being very mild and gray, especially December. If someone were to have told me then that we’d see a snow blitz and an extended cold period of 8 weeks from mid January to mid March 2015 I would not have believed them. Same thing in December 2010 and part of January 2011 (mild and mostly gray). I was pleasantly surprised by the snow blitz and cold that reigned over SNE from late January through early March 2011.

  19. Tweet from Eric Fisher
    In a lull now…next round of rain is the big one. Torrential downpours, areas of thunderstorms, and watching potential for some spin-ups/rotating storms mixed in. Heart of the action 11pm-8am.

      1. Well, perhaps I wan’t paying attention to the good Eric last night, But I swear on a stack of bibles he was talking about downpours
        during today.

        Anyhow, I go by what I see and I didn’t see much today at all.

        We shall see about tonight. Looks interesting.

        Sounds like you don’t necessarily agree with Eric about
        the possibility of some “Spinnies”, so you?

        1. We do have to keep an eye out tonight and I did go for some downpours today in fact I went through two of them at my locations.

  21. Talk about windy….
    Reading the tweet from Ryan Knapp of the Mt Washington observatory, a few models are projecting wind gusts atop Mount Washington to over 150 mph tomorrow!

    2. For giggles, here is the NWS point and click forecast for tomorrow night:

      Saturday Night

      A chance of snow before 8pm, then a chance of snow showers between 8pm and 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Wind chill values as low as -5. Very windy, with a west wind 90 to 95 mph decreasing to 80 to 85 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 120 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

  22. Skiers know when the Rockies do well in terms of snow, we can only hope for an average winter and hope 2012 never happens again.

    1. Quite wet, but not solid steady rain, showery, then depending on what time it is, there may be a couple hours with nothing around.

  25. Vicki –

    Just getting caught up – thanks for the great picture of Sutton from earlier today! We have been so enjoying small town life ourselves in Harvard – we have been there now for 7 months but it just flies by. Really nothing in the world as charming as a small New England town in the autumn. However having moved to Harvard as it reminds me of Concord when I was young I find myself utterly confused as – having decided Concord is not “Concord” enough – the production team for the new movie is now filming part of the new “Little Women” in Harvard Center. They are pretending it’s Concord center so have changed all the signs from “Harvard General Store” to read “Concord General Store” etc. Very surreal! They also built some small fake storefronts that are pretty cute. If you have the time come by to see it – I think filming wraps up next week. It is ironic as Concord center still looks very much as it did in the 1800’s – but apparently that wasn’t up to snuff in Hollywood…

    1. I’m glad you liked the photo and are enjoying Harvard

      Odd about Concord Center. I know what you mean about it not being Concord…just as Belmont is not the town I grew up in. It doesn’t mean either is bad. They just lost the small town feel that made them special

      But you are right that concord center is as if always was. How odd. But a bit of a curiosity that they would reconfigure the town you moved to in order to look like the town you left.

  27. Already at least one radar confirmed tornado in Maryland this evening. That threat pushes northward overnight. A long night of radar watching lies ahead for all the regional NWS offices.

  28. Is there a weather alert I can sign up for? Heading to bed soon but never like to sleep with an overnight tornado threat – even if small. I have an iPhone and thought there might be a weather alert app?

    2. I turned on alert notifications from about 5 different weather apps I have.
      That thing in New Jersey looks scary as Hell!!!

      1. Thanks JpDave! I feel better/less crazy as you’re turning on alerts too. Not too fond of this overnight tornado threat thing.

        Am I not remembering correctly or do we now have many more tornado threats than we used to in the ‘80’s/early ‘90’s? Is it related to climate change?

        1. Difficult to say. Independent of climate change,
          there are a number of factors that contribute
          to the perception of more tornadoes. I think TK
          outlined this pretty well the other day.

          We have better radar equipment to detect them
          earlier and plain outright being able to detect when in the past we did not have that capability.

          We have weather apps now, both for desktop and mobile devices. The weather underground Nexrad radar site has
          a radial velocity display that allows any of us to spot
          rotations. And mobile apps like Radar Scope allow
          users to readily spot rotation in storms.

          Also it just seems like more people are looking for tornadoes.

          But even given that (and I have been looking for years),
          this year seems to take the cake imho.

  31. Tornado warning in New Jersey has been lifted.
    Headed to sleep. I have my phone next to the bed and will be up at in a flash
    should an alert sound.

    Probably will be up quite early as in 6 or 7, depending.

  32. A lot of the tornado events that we see in the Northeast are “low level” events. It’s rare we have something like a Windsor Locks or a Worcester. We have a lot of tornadoes caught now (that were missed before) that are from thunderstorms that are not that tall and where the circulation does not extend up that high. In some cases these tornadoes are not even in thunderstorms but convective showers that just happen to not be producing any lightning. We’ve seen this with some of our purely tropical events.

    If you look at overall tornado numbers for the country, they are actually DOWN recently, not up. There has been a bit of a tornado drought. That pattern is probably cyclical as it has been hinted at in the limited amount of years we have of hard tornado counts.

    To theorize that our increase in tornado numbers in the Northeast can be due to climate change is just fine, but when you pull back and focus on the larger picture, and then take into account what I and others have said (JP Dave reiterated just above) you see strong evidence that it is probably unrelated to any climate change (man-induce or natural) and just that we catch more. As we add years to our observations, we always hope to learn more.

  33. Good morning. looks like we dodged a bullet re tornadoes, but caught the rain and we shall see what the wind delivers later today. Going to grab a bit to eat then turn on computer. this was a quick check on vua mobile device.

  35. TK, you mentioned that most of out Northeast tornadoes are low topped.

    Is that the reason why these type of tornadoes are often called spinups?
    And are they not primarily High-shear, low-CAPE (HSLC) environment events as opposed to the big boy Mid West type High Cape events. And mostly EF0 or EF1 events
    with exceptions. (I think Revere was an HSLC tornado but managed EF-2 status)

    1. I think the “spin-up” term was actually a media thing more than anything else. I’m pretty sure they started using it so as not to “panic” the viewers. I’m not a subscriber to this practice if that’s the case. If it’s a tornado, call it a tornado. We then should go on to explain the variations in conditions that can lead to them, and the varying strengths they can be. Instead, we just apply new nicknames to things to describe their impact. I don’t think that’s wise at all.

          1. I’m finding spin up to be another term for a gustnado which, if I understand correctly, is from a straight line wind and not a tornado

  36. The warm air never quite made it to Boston…or Norwood either.

    DP at Logan is 53 as I believe it was as high as 57 earlier.

    2. They were well into the warm air. Boston’s high yesterday was reported at 70, putting them at least in the upper 60s.

  37. I was happy to see just the heavy rain overnight. Numerous tornado warnings southwest of SNE in the Philly area and parts of NJ.

  39. JPD…I think it was my wording that was incorrect. You are correct that a spin up is a true tornado. I think….strong emphasis on think….they are related to a gustnado

    Sometimes referred to as spin-up tornadoes, that term more correctly describes the rare tornadic gustnado that connects the surface to the ambient clouded base, or more commonly to the relatively brief but true tornadoes that are associated with a mesovortex.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gustnado

    https://www.wmar2news.com/weather/weather-blogs/spin

    I am not finding a definition in any weather glossary which tells me…perhaps incorrectly….that TK is correct that it is a term that Mets have coined to refer to something else. It does seem they have a specific definition at least in their heads. The second link is related to east coast, but I think Philip may be onto something. Most references I found were Midwest.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gustnado

      1. What you posted does not describe what we have been
        experiencing, as fascinating as the material is.
        Our tornadoes this year for the most part have been true
        tornadoes and not gustnadoes. imho, anyway.

        1. Sorry Must have misread. I thought the question was what the term spinup meant. I’ve not heard it used so was curious

  40. A “gustnado” is a slang weather term coined by storm chasers to describe a NON-tornadic vortex tube on the gust front of a storm. They are more closely related to land spouts and true water spouts (the ones that don’t form with a mesocyclone).

      1. From NOAAs glossary

        Gustnado
        (or Gustinado) – A gustnado is a small, whirlwind which forms as an eddy in thunderstorm outflows. They do not connect with any cloud-base rotation and are not tornadoes. Since their origin is associated with cumuliform clouds, gustnadoes will be classified as Thunderstorm Wind events. Like dust devils, some stronger gustnadoes can cause damage.

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