Wednesday Forecast

149 Comments

6:49AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 17-21)
The muggies arrive today with very warm air, but cloudiness will prevent high heat, although there is a good opportunity for showers and thunderstorms, first isolated, then more numerous, as we go through the day. It’s hard to pinpoint where and when but we may end up seeing a fairly solid cluster or line of them by late day sweeping the region from northwest to southeast. This will be on a boundary that then settles south of the area and allows cooler and slightly less humid air to work in for Thursday. The reason it won’t feel all that day is we will set up an easterly air flow which will bring marine air into the region, so we’ll keep the heat away Thursday but keep some of the humidity. Then it’s no, and in comes the heat on a southwesterly air flow Friday and Saturday. Earlier I was thinking that we may dry out a little Saturday, and that may still happen somewhat, but not to the degree I was thinking earlier, but higher humidity in the air may prevent the temperatures from getting as high Saturday as they would have with drier air in place, so there’s a slight trade off, but still no matter how you look at it, it will be a hot one. On Sunday, the heat will still be in place, though the edge will be taken off slightly as the core will have passed. We will also take the humidity down a couple notches on a westerly wind.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms midday to mid afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms late afternoon to early evening. Humid. Highs 82-89. Wind SW up to 10 MPH but strong and gusty winds may occur near any thunderstorms.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and a risk of thunderstorms, favoring southern MA, CT, RI. Humid. Lows 63-70 Wind light variable becoming E.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodic showers and a chance of thunderstorms, but heaviest and most numerous expected in southern areas. Slightly less humid. Highs 71-78. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind light S.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Very humid. Highs 81-88 Cape Cod, 88-95 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 72-79. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Humid. Highs 92-99, hottest Merrimack Valley, except 84-91 South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Slightly less humid. Lows 74-81. Wind light W.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 88-95, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 22-26)
The high pressure ridge that gives the heat for the weekend will back up into the upper Midwest and allow a slight sinking of the jet stream with more seasonably warm temperatures for much of next week, but with limited opportunities for showers/t-storms with dry weather being dominant.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 27-31)
A bit of an adjustment as pattern transitions appear to want to take place more quickly. A general west to east flow will dominate and we may retrograde some ridging from the Western Atlantic to the Tennessee and Ohio Valley areas making the Southeast US hotter, and letting some of that heat sneak into our region as well, so temperatures trend back toward above normal, but not likely with any persistent severe heat.

149 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

    1. I like the way the week looks. It won’t be really hot hot but more seasonably warm after Monday, but seasonably warm in mid to late July is quite warm.

        1. I may wander into Hampton for a couple hours late Saturday afternoon depending on when I decide to leave here. I’m eventually heading for Salisbury for their Saturday night fireworks.

  2. A few days ago there were a few media reports that seemed more confident on a late-month cool down than they did about how hot it might get this week. This is when they had to back off those model number derived forecasts of mid to upper 90s for Wednesday (today) that you see are not going to even come close to verifying. I cautioned then about paying too much attention to models (SAK, JMA, myself, and others do on a regular basis). Well now the same guidance that was showing the cool-down is showing high heat on those same days. I don’t care how many upgrades a model gets, it’s still not a great idea to get too trusting of them beyond a few days.

    I am not going to mention sources or names on the “media reports” because this is not to call any particular person or people out. It’s just a repeated lesson that needs to be remembered.

  10. For a few good laughs from Joe Bastardi who once again is driving the hype train for today and tonight
    LOOK OUT S NEW ENGLAND Very warm water to the south is fuel for excessive rainfall and severe weather threat later today and tonight as whats left of Barry comes through, Barrys ghost could haunt someone ( Barry the storm not the WBZ weather guru) euro is all over this threat, moreso than GFS at this time

    JPDave if I remember correctly you have access to the EURO maps. Is it even showing a heavy rain and severe weather threat for SNE or is that part of the tweet HYPE?

  11. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Question:

    IF and I do say IF, we get close to 2 inches of rain today and tomorrow, would this
    add enough moisture to the ground to knock down high temps Saturday a degree or 2?

    6Z GFS still calling for 101 on Sat, however 6Z NAM says about 97.
    Still freaken hot no matter how you slice it.

    Cheers and thanks

    1. Yes it would.

      Still think 96 max for Boston on Saturday. They will probably come in with a 97.

      1. Will be interesting to see. But once it gets that hot, it matters little what the actual number is.

  12. Joe Bastardi provided another good laugh as always with the tweet. I know the SPC has upgraded most of SNE to a slight risk but I still think heavy rainfall is going to be the big ticket item with any thunderstorm development. I would not rule out somewhere in SNE an isolated strong to marginally severe storm.
    Then attention turns to what could be the hottest weather of the entire summer Friday and the weekend.

  13. FROM NWS:

    Will
    need to monitor cloud cover, as this may limit the solar
    insolation and cut back on some of the convection potential.

    So far pretty cloudy in the City with only a few breaks here and there.

  14. I got the sun out where I am at the moment and will see what happens as the day progresses. The high dew points leading to an increase in instability which is the fuel thunderstorms need. Mid level lapse rates are poor though for a big thunderstorm outbreak. Once we get to Friday and the weekend I hope everyone has a working air conditioning and if you have to work outside have plenty of water with you.

  15. I think we could have a few strong storms around later but severe is going to be hard to come by.

  16. TK I was surprised the SPC upgraded most of SNE to a slight risk were you? Given the setup a marginal risk they had was good in my opinion.

  18. Thanks TK.

    I’ve been off on a mini-vacation to Los Angeles. Talk about beautiful weather. Although, this time of year, right along the coast, the marine layer is ever present. It won’t warm much above 70 near the water, yet. A few miles inland, it’s perfect. Back in steaming hot NJ now. Saturday forecast is 100 on the nose. Severe weather and flash flooding possible here today also.

    1. Welcome back, WxW. LA is a fun city. I went several years in a row in my early twenties during early August and you are right that the temps are perfect. Even inland a bit.

      1. Yep! Inland this past weekend was kind of their first big heat event of the year, although it tends to be a drier heat. But all in all there aren’t many places with consistently nicer weather.

  20. Good article just posted this morning on coming changes to flash flood warnings. As a clarification, the number of such warnings will not decrease, however, there will be a dramatic reduction in the number of them that trigger wireless emergency alerts. Only in confirmed cases of severe danger to life and property will WEAs be triggered. Tornado warnings will continue to trigger the WEA in all cases. The case mentioned at the start of this article was so tragic.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/national-weather-service-will-debut-new-flood-warning-system-get-n1029316

  21. Vicki…Keep meaning to thank you for posting about the Manhattan blackout Saturday night when it happened.
    If I am not mistaken and remember correctly, the massive power outage on July 14, 1977 (the same date as last Saturday’s outage) was caused by a powerful lightning storm that knocked out two major NYC transformers.
    I believe (I could be wrong) that the same storm that same night moved from NYC into SE New England around 10 pm. I remember this because I was a 17-year old service clerk at Mammoth Mart in Foxboro and it was my turn to get carriages from the parking lot in one of the worst lightning storms I have ever seen!!!

    1. That station had FB posts yesterday indicating that there would be a chance
      for an isolated tornado today in SNE.

      I just don’t see it at leas not from what I was viewing.

  23. For obvious weather reasons, that was my most uncomfortable walk this summer.

    The air felt like it was several pounds heavy.

    1. I have a friend from Chennai that is visiting the States right now. He is very happy to be here with his family taking in the sights.

  25. thanks TK!!

    The sun has been out here in southern Worcester county since about 9:30, giving a lot of time for the atmosphere to destabilize. I think some severe storms quite possible around these parts if we stay like this throughout the day!! I think the NWS suggested this would be the case if the sun were not limited. Dp standing at 73 currently.

  27. Its a wait and see game to see if any thunderstorms develop later. There are ingredients in place today for thunderstorm development but again this doesn’t appear to be a big thunderstorm day.

  28. Walking out the door is kind of like walking into a brick wall. I worry about Mrs OS and others who feel ill during this weather.

    Daughter has an equestrian event in Plymouth Sunday. She is not participating since she does not do eventing but may be schooling the horses prior to the ride.

    As SC said, sun has been out in Sutton since 9:30ish with a haze covering all.

  31. Quote of the day in media: “some of these downpours may bring heavy rain.” ….

    Damn.. and I was hoping the downpours would bring only drizzle. 😉

      1. We have not had a severe thunderstorm watch posted in SNE this year. There was a tornado watch for Litchfield and Fairfield Counties in CT back in April

        1. I was on the SPC site refreshing it and it had not appeared
          even after you post. Beginning to appear now.

  35. First storm of the day with a special weather statement attached to it in the Worcester area. Winds of 40 mph and torrential rain with this storm.

  40. In addition to the severe thunderstorm watch a flash flood watch is up until 11pm tonight. It is so humid out there that heavy rainfall will be possible with any thunderstorms that do develop.

    1. The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton has issued a

      * Flash Flood Watch for portions of northern Connecticut,
      Massachusetts, and Rhode Island.

      * Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

      * Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
      during the mid to late afternoon hours and continue into the
      evening. The stronger thunderstorms will be capable of producing
      torrential rainfall with localized rainfall amounts exceeding 2
      inches in just an hour. This will result in the potential for
      localized flash flooding, particularly if this were to occur in
      an urban center.

  41. The first severe thunderstorm warned storm for SNE for today for northwestern parts of Worcester county until 3pm. 60 mph wind gusts with this storm.

  42. 77° dew point down here near TF Greene. Feels like Sarasota did last week when I was there.

    1. Indeed it is!!

      And Storms are popping up EVERY WHERE!!!
      One “just” snuck by N&W of my location.

      My Accurite reads 97 with dp 79 which is totally not correct!

  45. That’s okay WBZ radio just said our heatwave begins today. I guess we can just ignore the fact that Boston probably won’t get above 75 tomorrow.

      1. They just can’t seem to separate facts or get them straight. It’s getting even harder to listen to them lately. So much misinformation. SIMPLE STUFF too. Bleh.

    2. Oh yes, I heard that yesterday.

      It’s when the news anchor reads the forecast. Somehow turned Thursday’s 70s into 90s.

    1. I think I see the 2 tiny cells near Boston.

      From here, they are beautiful, tall, impressive looking cumulus clouds.

  47. Severe Thunderstorm Warning for parts of metro west until 4pm. Quarter size hail and 60mph wind gusts with that storm.

  49. I am also noticing a flash flooding warning posted for parts of the Worcester area which shows you these storms are loaded with moisture.

  52. From NWS Boston
    [315p] Lots of scattered thunderstorm activity with embedded heavy downpours. Seeing 2-4″/hour rainfall rates. Potential for wind damage / wet microbursts as we’re seeing cores being lofted upwards of 20-30 kft if not more. In some cases, what goes up will come down.

  54. We got a tornado warned storm parts of Berkshire county storm moving southeast at 40mph. Warning is up until 4pm. Quarter size hail with this storm.

      1. That warning was allowed to expire before 4pm so there is no longer a threat of a tornado.

  55. It looks like just south of Pittsfield. If there is a tornado with all the rain your not going to see it with the heavy rainfall happening with that storm.

  56. There was big time hail signature with storm just South of Framingham. Seems to
    have diminished some.

  57. I hear thunder, but as per usual looks to pass just south of my location, perhaps
    grazing us with northern edge. We shall see. Standing by to close windows if needed.
    I don’t think so with this group of cells. Perhaps next round? OR there will be some’
    strange development/expansion of existing ones???

    2. And just north of me…had a brief moderate shower with huge drops….now we are hearing thunder with some lightning..once again just to my north

      1. and just like that it lightened up.
        Just received a flash flood warning on my phone.
        yeah right.

  60. TK wrote: Quote of the day in media: “some of these downpours may bring heavy rain.” Indeed, that’s a priceless and meaningless statement.

    Where’s Jack Cole, or John Henning, for that matter, when you need them. I can see Jack Cole saying “some of these downpours may bring heavy snow, with rates of 4 inches per hour possible.”

    Jack Cole sort of started fake news in 1977. He would say things like “we’ll be back with more alleged news” after airing a news report on how to clean and prepare a chimney for Santa Claus.

    And, of course, the incident on April 1, 1980, when folks in Canton and Milton had settled down after a long day to watch the 6 o’clock news on channel 7. At the very end of the newscast an art-card flashed on the screen depicting a “News Bulletin.” Images of Blue Hill flashed onto the screen having been superimposed with flames and lava. Films of Mount St. Helens volcano in Washington state were used, dubbed with audio that was apparently warnings from President Carter stating his “concern” and Governor King calling the situation “serious.”

    My father couldn’t stop laughing for days after this.

  62. Cold snap on the way. Temperature suddenly dropped to 88. YIKES!!!
    And the rain is picking up again. 0.01 inch so far.

  64. These babies are moving rather quickly.
    temp down to 80 here and 0.24 from round 1.
    Waiting on round 2, maybe? We shall see.

  68. we have cells in a line by Worcester moving SE and cells b Woonsocket, RI moving NE.
    What happens when they merge????

  69. Lots of lightning southern Worcester, northern Connecticut right now. Hearing continuous thunder. Really gusty wind too with these.

  70. A source I will not name just gave me another quote of the day…

    Paraphrased: “We see lots of trees down here, kind of in a swirled pattern…”

    Truth: It was one tree, broken in 2, the 2 parts facing generally the same direction.

  71. Nice littel T-storm. Severe? NOT by a long shot.
    However, a lightning strike about 400 or 500 feet from the house.

    0.70 inch of rain with some light rain still falling. Almost done so I can open a few windows in the non-AC rooms. 🙂

  72. Round 3 just starting here. So far several downpours lasting anywhere from 10 minutes to almost 30. Lots (and I mean lots) of lightning overhead and just my south. Obviously lots of thunder too. A little breezy with the last storm…cooled down by several degrees.

  73. I knew when I had the Dana grief group meeting to attend that I’d miss a good one. And I did. Fair amount of deep puddles across roads and numerous limbs and large branches down on way home though Uxbridge and Sutton. My rain gauge says 1.23.

  74. Has there been a general change in Severe T-Storm warning criteria at NWS Norton? It just seems over the past year or two, they pull the trigger on warning as severe a non-severe storm.

    While very heavy rain and frequent lightning can have large impacts, very little wind and/or no hail don’t make for a severe storm.

    While they will never be able to please everyone, I get the impression they are overly conservative on the warnings. Which over the long term just causes people to let their guard down.

    1. There was brief hail in Milford. We were in a warned box. Will ask my kids about Sutton and Uxbridge. Seeing the limbs etc down on my way home on the Sutton Uxbridge line, I’d say they had fairly high winds.

      1. Both girls said win was intense and thunder and lightning were in top of themselves. Sutton had a very brief burst of hail. Uxbridge lowest power for a very short spurt.

    2. Agree 100%. Keep in mind, that only one small area within the
      storm has to be severe for the storm to be labeled severe. You may not see it, but you neighbor does.

      But even so, severe (as far as I remember), is hail 1 inch + in diameter
      and/or wind 58 mph +. It is pretty tough to get a storm like that around here.

  75. Holden was warned several times. No hail, no significant wind. Severe hail is 1″ diameter, so pea size doesn’t count.

    I’m not disagreeing that these storms caused damage in some areas, but was it a severe storm?

    1. Girls who are very used to my criteria said it was. It sure was in Milford. Although as you I tend not to second guess so who am I to say 🙂

  77. Having read the criteria…which JPD also listed…. for a severe thunderstorm, I am certain I have probably never witnessed one….well maybe one or two……. in seven decades.

    Personally….I think the warnings attract attention. Certainly each person at the meeting I was at was aware. And the hospital announced warnings several times complete with a siren type sound. Knowing individuals who work with hospital staff on various emergency procedures, I was both fascinated and impressed by their awareness. But my opinion only.

  78. Tweet from Eric Fisher. TK what are your thoughts on this?
    Looking ahead…kind of derecho-y. For us locally keeping an eye on Saturday night into Sunday…though the threat may be more across northern New England. Something to keep tabs on next couple days.

  79. Captain. Not sure you will see this. My oldest grand and I just watched the CBS special on the moon landing. Thank you so much for letting us know about it. I felt like a 20 year old again and grand was full of awe and questions

    1. Seems he has answered the why

      So do you and he think the criteria needs updating. I have to say I would not have wanted to be driving under the limbs I saw down

  81. North, you are in the Charlie hole, you know. Hence, the lack of precipitation.

    Goodness, the air was heavy today. Is there a heavy air index? If so, today’s was off the charts. I can’t imagine people liking this kind of air, but I’m sure there are some who do.

    Why do baseballs carry well in hot and humid air, and not so well in cool air?

  82. Sad news: Pumpsie Green died. He was the first black player on the Red Sox. The Sox were the last team to integrate. I have his baseball card from his first year with the Sox. Breaking the color barrier was so important. Such a stain on our country that we did not integrate races in the sport until the 1940s and 50s. It took the Red Sox several more decades to truly be diverse. To Henry et al.’s credit, the current ownership is color-blind and has really strived for diversity.

    1. This is indeed sad news.

      It was a tumultuous time. Ted was adamant that he and Green room together. It had a huge impact on this young girl

      If you have not listened to Teds HOF inauguration speech, it is worth a few minutes. As his guests we were blessed to sit front row. It was a moment I will never forget…not because it was ted (he was a fixture in our lives) but because he used his time to stand with those who were not recognized but should be

      https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Yi8ukM_NCf4

  83. JRW… The criteria has not changed for severe thunderstorms recently, but they do pull the trigger a lot faster. That was indeed confirmed to myself and a colleague through a mutual contact from NWS. Why? I don’t know other than probably obvious reasons.

    JJ… Yes we do always have to watch for derecho type events in this pattern, but it’s hard to see them coming more than 24 hours in advance as they depend on storm development / location / movement often the afternoon before they will impact an area.

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