Tuesday Forecast

74 Comments

7:11AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 16-20)
Heading into the summer I had been debating with myself if, after a frequently wet spring, we’d see a summer that resembled 1983, blasting into much drier weather and a lot of heat, or something more like the solar minimum summers that my colleague talked about, lacking sustained heat and having occasional northwest flow thunderstorm opportunities. So far, it’s been a little more the latter, but a taste of the former is on the way as we get into a blast of heat Friday that will probably last at least a few days. But before there, we have some other weather to go through, including another beautiful summer day today with fairly low humidity and a fair amount of sunshine. One change to the previous forecast is that the moisture associated with the remains of Barry are moving faster than was original expected, and will also be elongated, so this means unsettled weather arrives sooner during tomorrow (not waiting until late at night) and will still last into Thursday. But also another difference, previously thinking we’d be on the warmer more humid side of a boundary Thursday, that has now changed and it looks like a frontal boundary will be pulled southward, taking the edge off what would have been oppressive humidity and also limiting how high the temperature will get with more cloud cover and a generally onshore (easterly) air flow across the region. And then…… well I already mentioned that, but things flip around and shift so that the heat and humidity arrives Friday, but while the heat remains and probably peaks Saturday, it may dry out somewhat due to a downsloping westerly wind across the region.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. More humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny morning. Variably cloudy with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms arriving / developing afternoon. Humid. Highs 83-90. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 73-80. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind light S.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Very humid. Highs 81-88 Cape Cod, 88-95 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 72-79. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Slightly less humid. Highs 92-99, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 21-25)
The overall pattern will be westerly air flow aloft but with the upper ridge backing up through the Midwest. We start out rather hot then trend back toward more seasonable. Limited opportunities for showers and thunderstorms with dry weather being dominant.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 26-30)
Heading into the final days of July expect a pattern in which the ridge center backs up a little more toward the upper Plains. This allows a little bit more of a dip in the jet stream into the Great Lakes and Northeast which won’t put us in a cool pattern, keeping it more typical for the season, but increasing the risk of shower and thunderstorm threat somewhat.

74 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  3. I was on board with guidance last week with the warmer uptick being shown coming for later this week. Then I was thinking that 94-98 type heat in SNE and I still am. So in line with TK now. To harp more on his broader point – What doesn’t help the public information or misinformation trend is the new found love of mets showing the heat index or real feel temps from random GFS / ECMWF runs so it looks like wide spread highs of 104 plus on the map and that is all people see. I have heard plenty of “it is going to be in the 100’s this weekend”

  4. Thanks TK !

    The overnight “lows” for Friday night and Saturday night are note-worthy.

    Those 2 nights, particularly Friday night, are setting up to offer a chance at record high minimums.

    I do it myself, focusing on how hot the daytime can get during a heatwave, but it’s the excessively warm overnights that are just as big a heat related health issue because the body doesn’t receive any opportunity to cool down. Of course, this is magnified in the city heat islands where lows stay above 80F.

    Hopefully, in the next 72 hrs, as this comes into the short range, things will temper a bit.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    TK, still thinking about 96 for Boston’s High on Saturday?
    6Z gfs guidance has 102 for Saturday, but of course we know it is likely overdone OR
    at least I hope so.

    Either way, NOT looking forward to Friday Night into Sunday AM.

    Still looks to me like we get back doored mid day Sunday.

    2. Yes. And as usual too many mets in my opinion are buying guidance #’s on a model that is known to perform poorly for temperature forecasts in higher heat situations.

      And they #’s are not just too high on the hot days, they are likely too low for Thursday.

      This is where meteorological experience comes into play.

  11. Thanks TK.

    NWS point and click forecast now showing a high of 100F in Hartford for Saturday.

    We are planning on going to Block Island that day and biking around the island. Hopefully the ocean influence will keep highs in the mid to upper 80s there but we are going to bake either way you slice it!

  12. 0Z Euro has the 850 MB 24 C temp contour over 1/2 of SNE.

    https://imgur.com/a/XXzcheM

    That represents a “potential” high temperature of 103. Doesn’t mean that is what
    the temp would/will be, just the potential IF the 850 temps are correct and it
    get totally mixed to the surface.

    1. Latest from Norton NWS office:

      Mixing reaches to 850 mb each day. Temps at that level are at least
      18-20C, and data for Saturday suggests 20-22C. So sfc max temps will
      be in the 90s each day, and could approach 100F on Saturday. Dew
      points will be 70 to 75 in this period, leading to heat index
      values of 95 to 103F Friday and Sunday…and 100 to 105F on
      Saturday. Heat Advisory headlines may be needed Friday to
      Sunday.

  13. 6z NAM doing typical NAM stuff with some of the severe parameters for tomorrow. What I mean by typical NAM stuff overdoing the severe parameters. Will see what the 12z run says. As I mentioned earlier SPC does have us in a marginal risk for storms tomorrow.

  15. The thing that has my attention about this heat event is, over the last 48 hrs or so, all the models have had a slow run to run intensity buildup on this event.

    Slowly, the northern extent of the ridge has been projected to be further north into New England, the heights with the 500 mb ridge have been getting higher and higher and the 850 mb temps have been getting warmer and warmer to the point that it’s an eye-opening shot of 22C to maybe even 24c.

    I don’t see anything in the 12z NAM, out now to the arrival of this very big airmass, that changes this slow, upward trend.

    In the most updated WPC forecast temps, they are now playing catchup on saturdays projected high temps.

  16. the thing is that since Boston’s temp calibration is off could it make an inaccurate 100 degree reading 😉

    2. That can join the fake stat that Barry was a hurricane at landfall. The blurred line between fact and fiction. And that’s the sad truth.

        1. Barry was not a hurricane at landfall, even though NHC declared it was. SAK and I already posted the data to show why this is the case. It’s on the blog from a couple days ago.

  19. We may have to be concerned about the power grid this weekend. Fingers crossed no widespread outages like NYC last Saturday. Good they got their power back by early Sunday. In the past those NYC blackouts lasted well into the following day.

  20. With all this heat talk, here is a nice refreshing image from Mount Jefferson from yesterday. The large patch of snow is shrinking but still remains as we sit here on July 16th. Not unprecedented for this time of year I’m sure, but pretty cool nonetheless…

    Ryan Knapp
    @WXKnapper
    14 hours ago

    Jefferson snow patch meltout watch 2019 update – a size comparison between July 13 and 15th (darker of the two images). The edges continue to shrink inward. #nhwx #snow #mountain #meltout – at Mount Washington Observatory

    https://twitter.com/WXKnapper/status/1150958299971559429

  21. Since we are on the subject of widespread 100s this weekend, I would be curious as to what is the average number of 100 degree days at Logan. I know the average 90 degree days is 14 for Logan.

    2. They average less than 1 day of 100+ per year. Translate that to it only hits 100 there once in a great while.

      1. Thank you Sue.
        So far so good. The best thing we did this year, in addition
        to purchasing 4 new units, was placing one in the kitchen
        which in our old house doubles as the laundry room.
        It has made a huge difference.

        Now IF I can convince Mrs. OS to allow me to place
        one of our older 5,000 btu units in the bathroom which would
        require a heavy duty extension cord. That would finish the job.

      2. I am saying prayers also. Even if it doesn’t hit 100, HHH will impact a lot of people healthwise.

    2. Core of highest heat at 850mb seemingly passing overhead at max heating Saturday.

      If this can either speed up or slow down in the next 96 hrs, that could help deduct a couple degrees off high temps. If the warmest 850 mb temps pass overhead noon to 8pm Saturday, watch out temp wise.

  24. As I said yesterday hopefully Friday into the weekend is the hottest stretch of the summer.

  25. Philip:
    I tried to screenshot and use imgur to get you this info, but I have spent 20 minutes and I can’t figure it out. It would be easier if you played with it yourself!!! 🙂

    Use this website:
    https://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=box
    Go to “First/Last Dates”
    Make sure the station is “Boston Area”
    Make the range dates 1872-2019
    and the Criteria is Max Temp >=100
    This should print out the results of all of the years that had 100 or greater max temps for Boston. I think 1944 had multiple dates.
    You can change the recording site for more New England data.

    I hope this helps!

  26. Here is the heat data from my records for Taunton:

    Maximum High Temperature
    103º, July 22, 2011 (Hottest temperature ever recorded at KBOX)

    100º or higher days:

    100º, July 20, 2013
    102º, July 6, 2010
    101º, June 10, 2008
    101º, August 2, 2006
    100º, August 14, 2002
    100º, July 4, 2002
    100º, July 3, 2002
    101º, August 9, 2001
    100º, July 11, 1993
    100º, July 22, 1991
    102º, August 2, 1975 (Hottest temperature ever recorded at Taunton Water Works)
    100º, July 4, 1949
    101º, August 10, 1949

    Maximum Low Temperature
    78º, July 31, 1917

      1. I do as well. We moved the first female professor (a friend) into Dartmouth College. We had no idea of the actual temp until we heard it on the news on the way home.

        1. My father was still practicing the ministry at the time and he performed a wedding on that day. I didn’t attend but he told me how hot it was having to wear his robe. This of course was before many churches had ac. Most had fans at best, some just open windows in those days with paper fans with a stick to hold advertising funeral parlors.

          8/2/75

  27. Some of the bullet points tomorrow from NWS Boston
    * A few strong to severe thunderstorms possible Wed afternoon/evening
    * Heavy rainfall/localized flooding possible Wed afternoon and night

    1. Interesting that the COD site has 18Z NAM showing Marginal severe for
      tomorrow, while the 3KM NAM from COD shows tornado as the threat.

  28. https://imgur.com/a/p3aXiOq

    12z gfs has 850 MB temp of 23C or 73.4 F (approx 5,000 feet up).
    Interesting using my formula of adding 27.5 F (5.5 degrees per 1,000 feet) to the 850mb temp F yields a possible high temp of 100.9.
    Corresponds to the COD high temp of 101.
    Funny how that works out.

  29. If it were I, at the present time, I would go with a high temp spread on Saturday
    of 96-101. It will be most interesting to see what it actually turns out to be.

    94-98, 95-99 or 95-100 makes little difference as it will be freaken hot no matter
    how you slice it!

  30. With the thunderstorms tomorrow heavy rainfall to me is the main concern with all the humidity in place. I would not rule an isolated strong to marginally severe storm tomorrow somewhere in SNE with gusty winds.

    1. Harvey showed a model with 1.2” for Boston and 4.1” for Hartford. South of the Pike could get the most.

  31. This shows how much humidity is in the air your getting those amounts of rain in short period of time.

      1. Good for them

        Rather than using every day common sense, we will be debating the issue as the earth implodes around us and then wonder what in heavens name happened.

  36. I’ve been very troubled in recent times by the attempts by some on the left and right to politicize issues (eg, climate change), and to not tolerate dissenting views. I’ve always thought of the U.S. as being a beacon of hope because it allows and encourages dissent. We no longer do that. We’re no longer tolerating dissent. And, it isn’t just the President and Republicans who in recent days have shamefully used McCarthy tactics to ostracize and demean dissenters. It’s the left, too, with its never-ending political correctness. And, yes, that includes political correctness on climate change. There’s no room for debate whatsoever. Anyone who questions the impact of humans on the climate is lumped into the category of a right-wing zealot. I’ve really had it with this lack of civil discourse, rigidity of opinion, and no willingness to even listen to the other side. When I think of these debates and the dissenters (who I root for on both sides of the aisle or an issue, because acts of dissent are the essence of democracy and civil society), I’m reminded of what Solzhenitsyn wrote about patriotism:

    Patriotism is an integral and persistent feeling of love for one’s homeland, with a willingness to make sacrifices for her, to share her troubles, but not to serve her unquestioningly, not to support her unjust claims, rather, to frankly assess her faults, her transgressions, and to repent for these.

    1. Anthropological Climate change is scientific fact end of story. It is not a theory like the big bang. Climate change is real and scientists at around 97% says that this round of climate change is anthropologically induced. Its fact not a theory. Big bang theory only 63% of those professionals agree with it. The debate is over and we are wasting time listening to the BS of politicians with their hands in the darn pockets not listening to scientists. It is like watching all the movies in which politicians don’t listen to the scientist.

      1. You completely 100% missed Joshua’s point and in turn validated his deep concern for this country.

      2. Thank you, Matt, for expressing your very valid concern for this country. You did so politely, using facts to support your view. There has been debate after debate. That was the point of my earlier comment. Debate is always welcome, but it is to the point where we are close to being past the point of no return.

        Two comments here with substance. That is the type of debate we need. Attacks need to stop. Center ground needs to be found.

  39. does anyone know why the monthlies CFS are so different between tropicaltidbits.com and weathermodel.com particularily in the 2m temperature

    1. I’ll check with my go-to on that. I haven’t looked at the weathermodel.com version recently.

Comments are closed.