Tuesday Forecast

87 Comments

7:36AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 10-14)
A back-door cold front sneaked down the coast to about Boston overnight, chilling it off temporarily, but there is not a lot of push to keep it going, so we’ll warm it up one more time today before a cold front passes through tonight and returns reality to the region for the remainder of the week. Actually we do have a bit of a weather concern in what’s been an easy pattern through the winter. The first 3 months (to-date) of 2020 are running near a 3 inch precipitation deficit, and with no snowcover and no significant precipitation producers in the pipeline, both pollen and fire danger will be elevated, so we’ll have to keep an eye on that. Tonight’s cold front will produce limited rain showers, and a slightly more energetic system will produce a more widespread but short-lived rain event Friday, the benefit of which will be negated rather quickly when dry and breezy weather returns by the weekend.
TODAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 52-59 South Coast, 60-67 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Lows 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with showers of rain likely, possibly mixed with snow southern NH. Lows 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Clouding over. Rain likely in the afternoon. Highs 43-50. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain early, then clearing. Lows 32-39. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 42-49. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 15-19)
High pressure moves in with fair, chilly, but tranquil weather March 15-16. A weak low pressure system may bring unsettled weather March 17. High pressure then moves back in with fair, cooler weather March 18 and a warm-up to quickly follow at the end of the period, based on current timing. If you are interested in which medium range model I am closer to for timing in this period, it’s the ECMWF (European).

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 20-24)
A boundary nearby makes for even more uncertainly in an already normally uncertain beyond-10-day forecast. We’ll have to watch for a quick turn to cold and still cannot rule out something frozen falling from the sky sometime during this period.

87 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

    1. I’m concerned about the risk for brush fires in massachusetts if we don’t get more rain.

  5. IF and I know its a big and unlikely IF, but the EURO at hr 240 has a WSW surface wind and 850 mb temps of 12C overhead.

    We already surpassed 70F yesterday. Anyone for 80F the day before the equinox …….

    1. Sure, why not.

      A guide for potential high temp is take 850 MB temp in F and add 27.5 which would yield: 53.6 + 27.5 = 81.1

      So, it’s on the table. Long way to go, but we shall see. 🙂

      1. Thanks JpDave for the actual numbers.

        That helps, because in the warm season, with high sun angle and mixing, I have 850 temps and sfc temp relationship learned, but its helpful to see the actual formula numbers.

    2. If we’re this warm in the spring the money I saved on heating during the winter will go to the electric bill for the summer.

  6. A very noticeable chill out there now as Logan is at 40 degrees. When I left the door and arrived to work it was quite pleasant in the low 50s. I had no idea that a back door front was even in the area. The tv mets didn’t mention it as far as I can recall.

    1. I heard this last night on the 11PM news.
      I, too, have NEVER heard of this in my lifetime.

      The entire country of Italy is on lock down. That, as well, is unheard of….

      I fear we are not far from everything shutting down for 2 weeks. Time will tell.

  9. As I recall, Longshot pointed this out the other day and I’ve seen graphs for other viruses showing this as well …..

    the warmer weather and stronger sun is our ally. In some sense, this above average pattern hopefully gets everyone out into the sun for a while to accept some vitamin D.

    I hope the mindset isn’t making everyone think they should be inside a stale aired, shaded house.

    1. Good point and I agree. My wife and I were discussing this as it was so warm
      yesterday. The warmer, the better with this virus. Not that it would go away,
      but it does reduce the threat for sure.

    2. What if my natural habitat is a stale aired shaded house – refreshing websites on an infinite loop?

    3. I was talking to my BIL about warm weather. As in CA. I have doubts but am hopeful. I havent checked FL

      1. Well, if there was a “clustered event”, then that would probably overwhelm any benefit the sun could provide.

        However, I do think having the sun’s benefit, received safely, can only improve a person’s chance of fighting off the virus.

  10. Marshfield had briefly cooled mid morning and had a very light NE wind.

    It has since shifted back to SW and the temp has risen towards 60F.

    Lets see if Boston has the same thing happen between 1 and say, 3 pm.

  11. Due to the corona virus, Jeopardy and Wheel of Fortune will no longer have a studio audience for awhile. A bit of overkill or the right move?

    1. For Alex on Jeopardy, probably very helpful as I’m sure he has an extremely compromised immune system.

    2. Absolute right move. For Alex and showing respect for their audience.

      And I noticed Alex voice sounded strong Last night

  12. Now, in regard to not having a “live” audience, I wonder if both shows will have a recording of an audience applauding when a contestant solves a puzzle or answers a Daily Double correctly? It’s going to seem awkward contestants mearly applauding each other. I imagine this will be a “first” in TV game show history regardless.

    1. I saw it in the western sky early this morning during my commute to work. A pretty sight indeed. 🙂

    1. I am sitting at 22.4″ of snow on the season at my house in Coventry. Should we not receive anything further, this will officially be the worst winter I have experienced since moving there in 2006. Even managed 26″ of snow in 2011-2012 though that was largely thanks to the 10″ we received from the freak Oct. snowstorm that year.

  16. The record strong +AO is finally breaking, as you would expect it might as we head into spring. Perhaps some stale cold air becomes more readily available as we head into late March/early April. Right when we don’t want it to!

    Judah Cohen
    @judah47
    4h

    I guess the GFS broke this morning as it is predicting a negative #Arctic Oscillation and positive tropospheric polar cap geopotential height anomalies in late March. I thought this was physically possible.

  17. This is a repeat of a post I made last night at 2 am – just my thoughts on the virus as a complete layman –

    Greetings from the ever nocturnal, long lost Mama Mia!

    Ok – huge caveat – I am NOT a doctor. Or even in the field of health care. So I arguably have zero right opining on Covid-19. But as you all know well I know absolutely nothing about meteorology and weather yet you all welcome my participation here so here goes! –

    My understanding – and did I mention yet at least ten times I’m not a doctor or anything close so this is just based on my reading of recent articles and watching documentaries – is that the issue with this one is because it’s a brand new virus – completely new to the human population and to doctors – and it’s super contagious. Thr experts anticipate initially up to 67 percent of the world population will come down with it as soon as they’re exposed. Whereas with non-new viruses there’s a built in population that has built up immunity and/or has had a vaccine. 67 percent of the world doesn’t get the flu all at once. So it’s not just about how deadly it is because even a .4 percent mortality rate on 60-67 percent of the world population all at once is insanity. But unfortunately given uneven access to care it will probably end up closer to 3-5 percent worldwide. It’s about how contagious it is. If it hit everywhere and all at once it would completely overwhelm the health care system, the economy, everything. So I think quarantines are used to hopefully break the outbreak into slower waves that hit over time rather than a tsunami all at once. But I don’t think they have enough data yet to understand what the actual mortality rate is – they way I see it there’s a min minimum 6 week cycle to catch it, incubate, become ill, and have a negative outcome. First deaths in Wuhan were in late December and it probably landed here in mid Jan if you follow the logic and the event dates. I think we will unfortunately learn more quickly over the next weeks. But more testing and more data are the real keys. I’m very concerned that my elderly parents stay home and safe. I would do the same if there was a community flu outbreak. But people in the Boston area of the US shouldn’t needlessly worry. They may quarantine to avoid overwhelming the system and if so the economy will get hit hard, but it’s not the apocalypse.

    Well at least until it mutates…

    1. I think as it gets warmer this will all wind down . Let’s hear what the Governor has to say he is supposed to speak at 2:00 .

      1. My wife saw a piece from PBS NOVA where doctors said
        that the warm weather will have ZERO impact on this
        virus. Frightening to say the least.

    2. Well stated.
      Our children are very worried about my wife and me.
      We are both 72, soon to be 73. In addition to age my
      wife has really bad asthma which could prove deadly if she were to come
      down with this. She has stopped going out of the house, Period.

      As for me, I make supply and medicine runs and for now still going to work, but I don’t have munch contact at work. When the time comes, I can work
      from home as I suspect is coming.

      My son drives for Lyft and has stopped driving until further notice.

      We have supplies stocked up and are washing hands like crazy.

      Over reaction? I think not, especially at our age.

      latest death rates by age:

      DEATH RATE
      all cases
      80+ years old
      14.8%
      70-79 years old
      8.0%
      60-69 years old
      3.6%
      50-59 years old
      1.3%
      40-49 years old
      0.4%
      30-39 years old
      0.2%
      20-29 years old
      0.2%
      10-19 years old
      0.2%
      0-9 years old
      no fatalities

      As you can see, the older one is, the more serious the threat is.
      It is particularly DEADLY for the elderly!!!!

      At my wife’s and my age, the death rate is close to 10%, which is absolutely
      unbelievably high.

      1. We have a small stockpile too (including food for our cat) – it’s intelligent to do. We always have a bunch of shelf stable foods that we cook before expiry and replenish – it’s just a smart practice for unexpected events such as this.

      2. I agree completely. Please play it safe and even consider working from home until we know more – likely in the next 2-4 weeks.

    3. Thank you for repeating this, mama. I was hoping you would since it was at end of yesterday’s blog and might have been missed.

    4. I think JpDave’s video post is spot on. At this point the real issue is we don’t know so much about this new virus. So while we are still gathering data and also trying to learn how to effectively treat this virus (bc our normal bag of tricks doesn’t seem to be as effective as we’d like) and also while these initial waves hit and potentially temporarily overwhelm our hospitals I really think those most at risk – over 70 and/or with underlying health conditions – should (if at all possible) self-isolate until the data comes in.

      Not to sound alarmist but I do think that due to the lack of testing to date and the length from infection to symptoms (I’ve heard now they think this can be as much as 4 weeks, not 2) and the length of time from symptoms to fatality in bad cases (I’ve heard 2-4 weeks on average) that as we’ve already begun having casualties the virus (again just based on my own assessment using just logic) must be very widespread by now in many communities. So my takeaways are:

      1. I think those over 75 or who have underlying medical conditions should really consider isolation measures now at least until testing is widespread and we better understand the actual prevailing rates of infection. And no one in this group should do any non-essential travel.

      2. For everyone else – don’t freak out when the numbers of cases skyrockets late this week and thereafter. The test takes 24 hours. As of yesterday less than 2k tests had been done /results obtained in US which identified about 500 cases. If the blues clues team in the White House is actually able to get 1 million tests sent (note this means shipped out to labs) by Friday as they claim I think we should start to see the real rate of infection by the end of next week into the following week(s). I am guessing it’s already in the millions.

      Sorry – I hope this doesn’t sound crazy but I am just trying to follow the logic of the few things we do know. But soon enough we will all know. In the interim these next few weeks I think a little alarmism might be called for – and I have never said that before.

      Also get out of the market through this year. I think when the dust settles in 2021 we will have had a complete restructuring of the market. And staying in for the long haul doesn’t always prove wise – ask those investors of all the companies that went bankrupt in the 30’s. This modern day sales pitch that “the market always goes up over time” only holds true if the underlying companies still exist. Food for thought…,

      1. Not all viruses behave the same way. There are general rules and many exceptions to those general rules.

  19. Thanks TK.

    Not much to add to your discussion above. Definitely one of the driest pattern’s we’ve had in awhile. Would not be surprised if we start to show up on the drought monitor soon. Somewhat similar to late last summer when we turned dry for a little while; this is mainly a short term issue at this point given we’re coming off of two very wet years. So we’re not “in trouble” in terms of water tables, reservoirs, etc and won’t be for awhile. But this is a less opportune time of the year for this to happen as it does mean that we could be in for a worse than normal fire season and potentially a very tough pollen season as you said.

      1. Thanks. Still watching. Daughter asked about schools today. This is good

        The Department of Elementary and Secondary Education is providing local schools with relief from attendance and school year requirements so schools can make decisions to close if the opportunity arises due to coronavirus. The longest any school will be required to go is its 185th scheduled day.

        1. And something about attendance (chronic absenteeism) being evaluated only through March 2nd.

          The biggest frustration I hear from moms in my neighborhood is the mixed message that schools say, if your child is sick, keep them home. Then, after not too many unexcused absences, the absence letter arrives in the mail ………… And it’s also pointed out that doctors offices don’t always want you to go to the doctor when your not feeling well, if you describe something that sounds like antibiotics won’t help. So, how can they get an excused absence note from the doctor?

          1. I’ve been saying that since my kids were little. My girls say this regularly. It’s why I think schools will be the worst offenders. It seems to me the gov has excused a limit from schools. If the schools can only change their mindset…which was foolish to begin with.

        1. Yeah that works . I mean you see purell all over the hospital but that’s normal but they say it’s not 100% it’s like 96 or 97 but hand washing is 100% suggested sing happy birthday & please use paper towel to turn off water & Exit the restroom but this should be your everyday practice

          1. Yes….Soap and water is always better but tizer as my grandkids call it is great if you are not carrying a sink 😉 ;).

            NY state is having folks in prison making the tizer…Brilliant

  22. JPD may have his coyote but here in Dorchester we have a gang of 10 turkeys of various sexes. When I got home from work, they were hanging out in my next door neighbor’s backyard. They have since left headed in the direction of Blue Hill Ave. 😀

      1. Awwwwww! How cute. 🙂

        Also my same neighbor had to call an exterminator for a raccoon that literally smashed a window and into the house then hiding in one of the rooms. Raccoons are rampant in the neighborhood as well.

        1. We don’t see a lot of raccoons. Or skunks. Our neighbor in framingham had a raccoon living in the chimney. During the day it would come out and lie on top of the chimney to sun itself.

  23. I brought the subject up a couple of days ago about warmer weather and sunlight slowing down and killing off viruses, but I want to repeat a point. The fact that this has happened in the past does NOT mean it will happen with COVID-19. It’s a fair bet that it will, but still no guarantee at all.

    I will add a point. Everytime a virus appears, there are always scare conversations that it will MUTATE. Show me one that hasn’t. Some mutate to more aggressive strains and other to less aggressive strains. Sometimes a more aggressive strain will die out faster than the original, and very often the same treatment regimen works just as well on the new genome as it did on the original. I’ll never understand why everyone associates the word mutate with a fiery 3 headed dragon.

    1. Ya but you said that some mutate to a possibly more aggressive strain

      As an individual connected with health, you know that these can and have come in three waves. The second wave can often be more aggressive than the first. To me the concern is logical….no?

      I also checked the warmer areas….LA county and FL….not giving a lot of encouragement re warmer.

  24. How bad will conditions be for skiing on Friday in the White Mountains? Is a wind hold possible on Saturday?

    1. I think that system moves through quickly enough so it’s not a wash. There may even be some snow at higher elevations.

      I’d lean away from a wind hold Saturday. It will be windy, but should not be ferocious.

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