C-19 Chat Post – December 19 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 18-22)

A weak area of low pressure skirts just south of the South Coast later today through early Sunday. This will give us a minor precipitation event, snow to start out for many (except rain Cape Cod and immediate South Coast), with a rain/snow line progressing northward from the South Coast and westward from the eastern shores as time goes along. There will be some sleet in the mix/change area, as well as some potential freezing rain pockets especially in central MA where temperatures may sit just below freezing. This system exits early Sunday followed by fair but colder weather as high pressure moves into the region. This high will sit right over us Sunday night (coldest night of the season so far) and Monday with fair and cold conditions. The high shifts to the south with a tiny moderation in temperature Tuesday, before a cold front slips down from the northwest and turns it a little colder again by midweek. We’ll have to keep an eye on the evolution of low pressure to the south and east of New England by later Wednesday as it could end up close enough to bring a snow shower threat.

TODAY: Cloudy. Scattered snow/sleet/rain South Coast and a few snow showers southern NH and northern MA this morning. Steadier precipitation as mostly rain South Coast / Cape Cod, snow elsewhere eventually mixing with and changing to sleet and rain with pockets of freezing rain interior areas (mostly west of I-495). Snow accumulation under 1 inch immediate coastal areas, 1-2 inches away from the coast except 2-4 inches north central MA through interior southern NH Highs 32-37 inland, 38-43 coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast with rain coastal areas, rain with pockets of freezing rain and sleet interior areas but some snow still possible higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH, tapering off overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with lingering rain/sleet/snow showers early, then increasing sunshine. Highs 36-43. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing late.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind calm.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 17-24. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY: Sun giving way to clouds. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 23-27)

Temperatures near to below normal. Offshore storm may bring some snow showers or a period of snow early December 23. Weak disturbance may trigger a few snow showers Christmas Eve and low pressure approaching from the west may bring some precipitation around December 26. No major storms are expected.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 28 – JANUARY 1)

Similar pattern of frequent but not too powerful systems with additional opportunities for some precipitation. Temperatures near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – December 18 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 17-21)

Our last warm day for a while occured on Thursday. As expected, Boston fell several degrees shy of the record high for the date (64, set in 1971). It was advertised as “near record warmth” but it actually wasn’t. A high of 60 is 4 degrees shy of the record of 64, and that is not near the record. Worcester tied their record of 58. Where the conditions for getting the warmer air to the surface were better, Hartford & Providence set new high temperature records. That is one thing we have lacked during our mild autumn – record highs. So it has not been an autumn of extreme warmth, just a very mild one, overall, with interludes of colder weather as well. And now it’s time for a pattern change. Say goodbye to the milder times. While today itself will still be fairly mild to start, the trend will be down, and this is going to set us up for a bit of a winter weather event this weekend. A secondary cold front will cruise through the region later today, and then low pressure will come along from the Ohio Valley Saturday, passing near or just south south of the New England South Coast Saturday night and early Sunday. While this will not be a particularly strong system, it will have a decent shield of moisture with it, and will produce accumulating snow for much of the region, but not a “big snowstorm”. We will see a rain/snow line near the coast due to warmer air in response to the ocean water, and also we’ll have to contend with warmer air coming in from the south at mid levels, that will set up an area of sleet and possible freezing rain between the snow and rain inland of the South Coast, most likely along the I-90 belt in east central and south central MA. Travel hazards will occur on untreated surfaces, especially where temperatures are near to below freezing. Once this system exits we’ll experience a shot of colder air arriving Sunday and continuing Monday before we moderate slightly with fair weather as we head for the Winter Solstice on Tuesday.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 51-58 in the morning, cooling into the 40s afternoon. Wind W 10-20 MPH with gusts around 30 MPH, diminishing late.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 26-33. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Thickening overcast. Snow arrives during midday west to east but may begin as a rain/snow mix Cape Cod. Snow changes to rain along remainder of South Coast and eventually eastern coastal areas up to Boston, and to sleet with pockets of freezing rain possible inland from the South Coast over northern RI and northeastern CT into adjacent interior southern MA. Highs 34-41. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast with rain coastal areas except snow or rain NH Seacoast, sleet and rain with pockets of freezing rain northern RI and northeastern CT through interior MA mostly south of Route 2 with mostly snow to the north, all tapering off to a few rain/snow showers toward dawn. Snow accumulation for the event under 1 inch immediate coastal areas, 1-3 inches away from the coast except 3-5 inches north central MA through interior southern NH. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with a chance of a few snow showers except rain or snow showers Cape Cod early, then sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 10 at times.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 17-24. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 22-26)

Temperatures near to below normal. Watch for disturbances with possible periods of snow or snow showers. No solid indication of bigger snow events at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 27-31)

Similar pattern of frequent but not too powerful systems with additional opportunities for some snow or snow showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – December 17 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 16-20)

Low pressure passes to our north today / tonight. Warm front passing by now brings morning rain. Cold front passing this evening may bring a rain shower. A nice mild day between the two. Cooler air arrives on Friday and a secondary cold front brings colder air Friday night. Low pressure tracks eastward and passes just south of New England late Saturday / early Sunday. An accumulating snowfall is likely for a good portion of the region Saturday midday through early Sunday, but a rain/snow line will be involved, with more rain than snow expected for coastal locations. First guess at snowfall accumulations will appear below but will need some fine-tuning on both Friday’s and Saturday’s updates. High pressure moves in with fair and colder weather later Sunday through Monday.

TODAY: Cloudy morning with rain tapering off. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. A passing rain shower possible. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, shifting to W, with higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 51-58 in the morning, cooling into the 40s afternoon. Wind W 10-20 MPH, diminishing late.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with snow/mix north of I-90, mix/rain to the south arriving by midday. Highs 32-39. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain/mix/snow coastal areas with a coating to 1 inch of snow possible, mix/snow elsewhere with 1-3 inches most likely but 3-5 inches possible interior higher elevations. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain/mix/snow early, then clearing. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 16-23. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 21-25)

A colder pattern with a couple systems (clippers or otherwise fairly weak systems) bringing opportunities for precipitation (including snow chances).

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 26-30)

Similar pattern of frequent but not too powerful systems, but additional opportunities for frozen precipitation exist during this time frame.

C-19 Chat Post – December 16 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 15-19)

The weather pattern of fast-moving features rolls on, but also shifts its orientation during the course of the next 5 days. This will be driven by the formation and strengthening of high pressure over Alaska and Greenland, and a weakening of the southeastern US ridge. This will allow a trend to colder weather to be more persistent in the medium term, which we will start to feel at the end of this 5-day period (or over the upcoming weekend). Before we get there though, one more storm system passing to our north will drag a warm front through the region tonight, preceded by increasing clouds today, and accompanied by a period of precipitation (mostly rain except maybe brief mix far inland higher elevations). The warm front will be followed by an unseasonably mild Thursday in which some areas may reach or just surpass 60, but not likely high enough to break any records. Lingering cloudiness early and the short daylight are limiting factors in getting the temperature to reach record-breaking levels, in my meteorological opinion. Records or not, the mild air will then be knocked down in 2 stages, first by a weak cold front Thursday night which may be accompanied by a brief passing rain shower, and likely prevent another run at 60 on Friday (50s being the rule), and then by a second cold front that comes through with no fanfare other than a bigger temperature drop Friday night into Saturday. At the same time the next low pressure system will be coming along from the Midwest, destined to take a track much further south than its predecessor (somewhat similar to the one that produced snow for parts of the region last Wednesday). This low does not look like it will be all that strong, but will carry enough moisture for a period or two of precipitation, current window looking like midday Saturday to early morning Sunday. There will be a rain/snow line to work out, but right now, this event being on day and early day 5 of the forecast, the only thing I can semi-safely say is that the system brings the potential (potential, not certainty) for a light to moderate snowfall for parts of the region this coming weekend. Fine-tuning to come of course…

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 41-48. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain possible, except some snow and freezing rain possible across far north central MA and southern NH away from the Seacoast. Lows 31-38 evening, then slowly rising temperature overnight. Wind SE under 10 MPH shifting to SW.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 54-61. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A passing rain shower possible. Lows 38-45. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, shifting to W, with higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 51-58. Wind W 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain/mix/snow. Highs 32-39. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain/mix/snow likely. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain/mix/snow early, then clearing. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 20-24)

A colder pattern with a couple systems (clippers or otherwise fairly weak systems) bringing opportunities for precipitation (including snow chances).

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 25-29)

Similar pattern of frequent but not too powerful systems, but additional opportunities for frozen precipitation exist during this time frame.

C-19 Chat Post – December 15 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 14-18)

While an active weather pattern continues in terms of the frequency of disturbances passing by, we are about to see a shift in the pattern in terms of storm track. For quite some time we’ve seen the majority of low pressure areas passing north of this area, but a shift in the larger scale features (less high pressure ridging in the US Southeast, and more ridging building into Greenland and Alaska, we’ll see the overall storm track shift a little more to the south and the tendency for colder air to become a little more dominant. This is going to increase our chances of frozen precipitation being involved in disturbances that impact the region. We’ll see the results of this at the end of this period (Saturday). Before we get there though, we have one more system to pass to our north. After high pressure brings fair weather today behind a weak cold front that just went by, a warm front will approach Wednesday bringing cloudiness back into the region and a threat of some precipitation Wednesday night. A brief warm-up takes place Thursday behind that warm front and ahead of an approaching cold front. That front may produce a passing rain shower as it goes by the region Thursday evening, returning colder air to the region for the end of the week and setting us up for a rain/mix/snow threat Saturday as the next low comes along from the west. We’ll iron out the details of that system as we get closer to it.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 41-48. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain possible, except some snow and freezing rain possible across far north central MA and southern NH away from the Seacoast. Lows 31-38. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A passing rain shower possible. Lows 38-45. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, shifting to W, with higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 46-53. Wind W 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain/mix/snow. Highs 32-39. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 19-23)

A colder pattern with a couple systems bringing opportunities for precipitation (including snow chances). None of them look overly powerful at this stage.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 24-28)

Similar pattern of frequent but not too powerful systems, but additional opportunities for frozen precipitation exist during this time frame.

C-19 Chat Post – December 14 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 13-17)

The next 5 days will continue our pattern of frequently passing weather systems as nothing hangs around in this fast-flowing jet stream set-up. Today will be a dry day but will start with an abundance of high level cloud cover (which gave a great sunrise for many areas in case you missed it) as warmer air moves in above us. These clouds will move out with sun taking over as the day goes on, and it will be a little milder and less breezy than yesterday was. A cold front quietly crosses the region tonight, and it’s a good thing it will struggle to produce even any clouds, because tonight we peak the Geminid Meteor Shower, which should put on a decent show despite some moonlight interference for the first part of the night. Tuesday, high pressure builds into eastern Canada and sends a slightly cooler by dry northern air flow into our region while the front that just went by comes to a stop to our south. This front will then make its way back northward Wednesday in response to the next approaching area of low pressure. This low’s track is destined for the Great Lakes and into southeastern Canada, so once again we’ll get into the warm sector behind the warm front and ahead of a cold front trailing from the low. Before that happens, a period of precipitation is possible Wednesday night / early Thursday, mostly rain, but across the hills of far north central MA and into southern NH some icing and even a bit of snow may occur as the air will be colder there. Any icing that does occur will not last long as we warm to the 50s regionwide Thursday. We may see a 60 degree reading in a few locations, so that will be the top range on my temperature forecast. Regardless, the warm-up is to be short-lived, as the aforementioned cold front will come through here with a band of rain showers Thursday night, returning us to cool but dry weather Friday.

TODAY: Limited sun into late morning, abundant sun thereafter. Highs 46-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 23-30. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 41-48. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain possible, except some snow and freezing rain possible across far north central MA and southern NH away from the Seacoast. Lows 31-38. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A period of rain showers. Lows 38-45. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 46-53. Wind W 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 18-22)

The overall pattern remains one with frequent, fast-moving systems. Overall storm track starts to shift more to the south with some more variety of precipitation types possible in what will probably be two low pressure systems to impact the region during this period. The first one will likely be December 18 (the first part of the coming weekend) with a variety of precipitation possible. Too early to time any subsequent precipitation threats at this point.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 23-27)

At least one more low pressure area may impact the region with a precipitation threat (increased risk of frozen precipitation being involved) with a colder trend.

C-19 Chat Post – December 13 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 12-16)

Our La Nina driven pattern remains locked in for the time being. We’ve seen 3 distinctive low pressure systems impact the region during this week (4 if you count the remains of one that moved through during Friday). Monday’s and yesterday’s systems were the ones that tracked north of the region putting us in a warm sector and experiencing two frontal passages bringing a variety of wind directions and speeds and showers even with some thunderstorms. Wednesday’s, a much weaker system, brought a minor accumulating snow to a good portion of the region, the first of the season. We’re now in a chilly air mass with gusty wind behind our latest cold front. As the run returns to prominence today it will continue blustery as high pressure approaches from the west while a broad and strong low pressure circulation departs via eastern Canada. The high pressure area will pass to our south on Monday while we moderate temperatures but stay breezy. Another high pressure bubble will be moving eastward across southeastern Canada and a cold front will quietly pass by our region Monday evening, setting up a wind shift and a cool-down for Tuesday. The next low pressure system seems destined for a track east northeastward through the Great Lakes and into southeastern Canada. This will send a warm front our way on Wednesday when we’ll see more cloudiness and the chance of some light precipitation at some point. We’ll spend some time in the warm sector Thursday, which is now the only “warm” day in what was a poorly-modeled warm spell just days ago. A cold front will be approaching by later Thursday with the end of that warm-up already in sight.

TODAY: Increasing sun. Temperatures steady 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH, diminishing slightly during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 24-31. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 41-48. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Light rain/mix/snow possible. Lows 32-39. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers late. Highs 52-59. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 17-21)

The overall pattern remains one with frequent, fast-moving systems. Overall storm track starts to shift more to the south with some more variety of precipitation types possible in what will probably be two low pressure systems to impact the region during days 6 through 10 (target dates December 18 & 20).

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 22-26)

A gradual pattern shift continues with it becoming easier to be colder and better opportunities for frozen precipitation to be involved with any disturbances.

C-19 Chat Post – December 12 2021