DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 26-30)

The Christmas event was a little more potent than even our best short range guidance indicated, representing the second significant failure by short range guidance in as many months and reinforcing the idea that even that needs to be taken with some salt grains in this pattern, which will continue for some time to come. We see improvement today as our most recent system moves away to the east and a bubble of high pressure moves in later today into Monday. It’s important to note that some areas, especially west and north of Boston, still have ice on untreated surfaces that will take a while to melt away, but should do so for the most part by later today… We’ll be eyeing two low pressure systems for this 5-day period as we head down the home stretch of 2021. The indications are that neither of these will be major systems, and that the first one will be in the process of dissipating as it passes by Monday night and early Tuesday, and the second one will also be weakening but may have more moisture with it as it comes through the region Wednesday. Fine-tuning will be needed…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a brief period of light snow possible. Lows 23-30. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix north, mix/rain south. Highs 35-42. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain/mix/snow evening. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 31 – JANUARY 4)

Two disturbance may bring episodes of precipitation during this period, favored times around January 1 and 4. Neither look like major events. Temperatures variable, averaging close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 5-9)

Variable temperatures, averaging close to normal. One or two disturbances bring precipitation threats.

C-19 Chat Post – December 26 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 25-29)

A Christmas Day travel hazard due to freezing rain (except the South Shore of MA and South Coast region where the temperature is already and will remain above freezing. As the rain moves in early this morning from the west, it will freeze on untreated surfaces where temperatures are at or below 32F. We won’t see enough icing for tree damage and power outages, but we will see enough for hazardous driving and walking on untreated surfaces until such a time that the temperature rises sufficiently to stop the process and melt the ice on these surfaces. This may take much of the day to happen especially over interior areas to the west and north of Boston. With low pressure pulling away and intensifying through Sunday, other than the possibility of a few snow flurries from an upper level disturbance, we will be dry and not too cold, so most icy spots will melt away / dry up and walking conditions will improve. High pressure brings fair weather Monday into Tuesday. The next low pressure area is due Wednesday with another round of unsettled weather, early leaning toward rain over snow.

TODAY (CHRISTMAS DAY): Cloudy. Rain arriving from west to east early. Icing conditions away from the coast, gradually diminishing from southeast to northwest later in the day. Highs 33-40. Wind E to N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/snow showers. Lows 26-33. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 17-24. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Mix/rain likely. Highs 38-45. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 30 – JANUARY 3)

Two disturbance may bring episodes of precipitation during this period. Neither look like major events. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 4-8)

Variable temperatures, averaging close to normal. One or two disturbances bring precipitation threats. Timing / details not possible this far in advance.

C-19 Chat Post – December 25 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 24-28)

A little bit of winter weather for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Our region sits on the colder side of a frontal boundary today as a wave of low pressure moves by this morning, producing a light snowfall for the region. The boundary shifts a little bit to the north allowing some warming aloft as another disturbance comes along for Christmas Day, so any precipitation that starts as sleet or snow in northern MA northward will quickly switch to freezing rain/drizzle, especially away from the coast, with icing likely. To the south, the temperature should be warm enough so that most areas see rain, but there still could be some pockets of freezing rain away from the coast in the early morning. The surface should warm enough to transition most areas to non-freezing rain by midday, except a few lingering pockts of icing in places like the Merrimack Valley and southern NH. While this will not be a major system, it doesn’t take much freezing precipitation to produce hazardous walking and driving conditions on untreated surfaces, so keep this in mind if you are doing holiday travel by wheels or by feet. The low pressure area responsible for the Christmas Day precipitation will intensify as it moves away to the east on Sunday, leaving us with a blustery and chilly ending to the holiday weekend with a few snow showers possible as an upper disturbance moves through. When we get to early next week, we’ll again find ourselves on the colder side of a boundary with additional disturbances trying to make it out of the Midwest into the Northeast. I don’t have much faith in these systems surviving fully, so we’ll probably just end up with varying amounts of cloud cover with mostly precipitation-free conditions. That’s the leaning for now.

TODAY: Cloudy with snow of a coating to 1 inch (locally up to 2 inches) this morning. Partly sunny this afternoon. Highs 28-35. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE): Clouds return. A little snow or sleet possible southern NH and northern MA pre-dawn, with a bit of light rain / freezing rain to the south. Lows 25-32 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind N to E under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY): Cloudy. Periods of rain with freezing rain away from the coast and especially near and north of I-90, transitioning to plain rain from south to north before tapering off during midday-afternoon. Highs 34-41. Wind E to N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/snow showers. Lows 26-33. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 17-24. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 29 – JANUARY 2)

Two disturbance may bring episodes of precipitation during this period. Neither look like major events. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 3-7)

Variable temperatures, averaging close to normal. One or two disturbances bring precipitation threats. Timing / details not possible this far in advance.

C-19 Chat Post – December 24 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 23-27)

We sit on the cold side of a frontal boundary and will spend most of our time there during the next several days. High pressure brings fair but cold and breezy conditions today. A wave of low pressure moving along the frontal boundary to our south with trigger a period of snow Friday morning with minor accumulation, whitening up the ground for Christmas Eve. Another low pressure area will approach from the west by early Christmas Day (Saturday), bringing more unsettled weather to the region, but with warmer air moving in aloft, while many areas may start as snow, a combination of sleet, freezing rain, and rain will likely take over the precipitation. The good news is that this will not be a big storm system. However, it only takes a minor amount of frozen / freezing precipitation to cause travel hazards, so those with plans to drive or walk need to keep this in mind as we head through Christmas Day. The low responsible for this will intensify once offshore Sunday, but will be moving away quickly. This will make for a cold and gusty day, and an upper level disturbance may trigger a few snow showers. Behind all of this, high pressure should bring us a fair and chilly day Monday, but with clouds moving in as the next disturbance approaches (though timing and confidence on the strength and track of any system beyond just a few days out is low due to the ongoing near uselessness of the guidance).

TODAY: Sunshine dominates but high clouds increase later in the day. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Light snow arriving west to east overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind diminishing to calm.

FRIDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE): Mostly cloudy with light snow ending from west to east during the morning – accumulation of a coating to 2 inches expected. Clearing afternoon. Highs 30-37. Wind calm then NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE): Clouding up. Snow arriving late evening or overnight, accumulating a coating to 1/2 inch, changing to sleet / ice / rain especially south of I-90 toward dawn. Lows 25-32 evening, rising slightly overnight. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E overnight.

SATURDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY): Cloudy. Periods of snow/mix to ice/rain southern NH, mix to rain elsewhere, may tapering off but changing to a few snow flurries later in the day. Highs 35-42, mildest South Coast through midday, cooling later in the day. Wind E shifting to N increasing to 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/snow showers. Lows 26-33. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 17-24. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 28 – JANUARY 1)

Two disturbance may bring episodes of precipitation during this period. Neither look like major events. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 2-6)

Variable temperatures, averaging close to normal. One or two disturbances may bring precipitation threats. Guidance will be of no help at this time.

C-19 Chat Post – December 23 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 22-26)

The previously-prognosticated active pattern with no big storms is ongoing. Keep in mind that when I mentioned this pattern many days ago, I also told you that we could not provide details for timing and impacts of any systems that far in advance, but now in the 5-day period we can elaborate more. We start with a grazing by an offshore storm system today which will be moving rapidly northeastward. Though the center will be quite a distance to our southeast, its precipitation shield is large enough that it will produce a period of rain for several hours this morning. However, surface temperatures will be cold enough over the interior areas, especially west of the I-95 belt, that the rain will be freezing on untreated surfaces, making it slippery for travel. This will have some impact on the morning commute. The good news is that not only does the precipitation exit by midday, but the temperature climbs above freezing in all areas so that any ice will melt. We’ll also see clearing with dry air and increasing wind as the day goes on, which will dry off any surface so that we don’t see any re-freezing tonight. High pressure will bring dry and seasonably cold weather on Thursday. Once we get to Friday and Saturday, Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, we will see a couple of disturbances moving east southeastward across our area. This will be the broken up remnants of a low pressure and frontal system that will be blocked from cleanly passing through the northeastern US by high pressure in eastern Canada. With enough cold air around, we may see some festive snowflakes for at least parts of the region from these systems, with no significant impact expected for travel. Model guidance is not handling the second half of the weekend well, with different models showing different outcomes. Right now it looks like a lingering disturbance passing through on Sunday will produce some scattered snow showers, but some fine-tuning of this part of the forecast will still be needed.

TODAY: Cloudy morning with a period of rain except pockets of freezing rain west of I-95. Gradual clearing afternoon. Highs 39-44 except 45-50 South Shore through South Coast of MA. Wind NE 5-15 MPH morning, NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Chance of light snow overnight. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE): Cloudy with a chance of light snow morning. Variably cloudy with a chance of snow showers afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow late evening and overnight except rain/mix South Coast. Lows 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY): Cloudy. Periods of light snow/mix except mix/rain South Coast. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/snow showers. Lows 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 35-42. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 27-31)

Temperatures variable averaging near normal. At least once disturbance brings a precipitation opportunity favoring mid period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 1-5)

Variable temperatures, averaging close to normal. One or two disturbances may bring precipitation threats.

C-19 Chat Post – December 22 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 21-25)

This 5-day forecast takes us from the Winter Solstice (which will be occurring moments after I post this blog, which I got a late start on today, due to a sunrise trip to the NH Seacoast to put my feet in the icy Atlantic water, then a diner breakfast after that. 😉 The solstice occurs at 10:59 a.m. EST today – “the shortest day of the year” in terms of daylight. We already saw our earliest sunsets about a week before this, but we’ve been trending later with the sunrises still, so that we reach our minimum today, and then, very slowly, we start trending in the other direction. The beginning of winter is also the beginning of the long journey out of the “dark days”. But as we all know here in New England, our harshest winter weather will often occur during the first 2 or 3 months of this celestial journey. Do we have any harshness coming up between today and Christmas Day (the end of this 5-day forecast period)? Well, not so much by New England standards, no, but we will see a couple of weather events during this time frame. Let’s outline how I expect it to take place. First, a dry solstice today as high pressure slips off to the south of New England. The air will be milder than yesterday’s chill – a little irony in that the final day of autumn will be colder than the first day of winter, but you know that’s not really unusual in day-to-day weather. Next up, we watch a storm system skirting by to our southeast Wednesday. This storm is failing to combine significantly with energy to the northwest, so we just get a glancing blow from its precipitation shield, which will be mostly rain, but surface temperatures will be cold enough so that some icing may occur over inland locations during the morning hours. Keep this in mind if you are driving or walking on untreated surfaces. That storm system exits the area in a hurry Wednesday afternoon and evening with a return to dry and seasonably cold weather here, which will set up a fair and chilly day for Thursday. We’ll be seeing a little bit of a blocking pattern setting up late this week, with high pressure in eastern Canada. As this happens, low pressure approaches the Great Lakes and its frontal boundary will be trying to push east and northeast, but running into high pressure will turn into a strung-out boundary with disturbances moving along it. This will translate into a couple of precipitation opportunities Friday and Saturday (Christmas Eve & Christmas Day), some of which will likely occur as snow as it should be cold enough. Temperatures will be more marginal the further south you go so some rain may be involved as well. Fine-tuning of timing and precipitation type will be done as we get closer. This will not be a major precipitation event, so travel impact should be minimal.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 37-44. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding over. Scattered rain and freezing rain overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy morning with periods of rain except pockets of freezing rain possibly mixed with sleet interior eastern and central MA and southern NH. Clearing afternoon. Highs 35-42, except 42-49 Cape Cod & Islands. Wind NE 5-15 MPH morning, NW 15-25 MPH afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Chance of light snow overnight. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE): Cloudy with a chance of light snow morning. Variably cloudy with a chance of snow showers afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow late evening and overnight except rain/mix South Coast. Lows 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY): Cloudy. Periods of light snow/mix except mix/rain South Coast. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 26-30)

A disturbance and incoming cold air bring the chance of snow showers December 26. Generally dry and seasonably cold weather is expected thereafter, though we may need to watch for a weak system to impact the region at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 31 – JANUARY 4)

Variable temperatures, averaging close to normal. One or two disturbances may bring precipitation threats but while somewhat active, the pattern does not look particularly stormy.

C-19 Chat Post – December 21 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 20-24)

If you were / are up and outside early this morning you felt the coldest air we’ve experienced in a while, sans wind, as high pressure sat atop the region with a perfect set-up for radiational cooling. This high pressure area will continue to govern our weather today and tomorrow with dry weather, a cold day today and a slightly milder Tuesday for the Winter Solstice (10:59 a.m. EST). We are in the midst of a pattern change as we head into astronomical winter, and as noted previously, our opportunities for systems to produce frozen precipitation for at least parts of there region increase. While we won’t experience any big storms, we will see a couple opportunities during this 5-day period – not today or tomorrow obviously. After the moderation in temperature for Tuesday, a cold front will slip through the region that evening with a slightly cooler air mass behind it. Wednesday, we’ll “dodge a bullet” in terms of an important storm system, as low pressure that originated well to the south (a rarity in this regime) moves offshore to the southeast of New England and a weaker disturbance passes by to the northwest. These 2, had they been closer, may have combined to give the Northeast a more important storm system, but that’s not going to happen. It is the southern system that will scrape us with the northwesterly edge of its precipitation shield on Wednesday – most likely in the form of rain for southeastern MA & RI, but a few pockets of freezing rain and some sleet may occur a little further to the north and west over central through northeastern MA and into southeastern NH as well. I’m not expecting significant travel issues from this, but it could get a little slippery on untreated surfaces where it is cold enough for freezing rain to occur. Areas that see the icing would still likely rise above freezing for high temperatures sometime during the day, putting an end to the icing issue. Even just wet roads can create less traction for tires, so keeping in mind the pre-holiday traffic volume this week, use extra caution if you will be out. This bout of unsettled weather will be short-lived, and we get a fair and seasonably chilly day Thursday courtesy a high pressure area with centers in eastern Canada and south of New England. The southern bubble will slide off to the east and be the weaker of the 2, while the northern high center will stay a little more stubborn in eastern Canada, feeding in some cold air. While this happens, and first part of a weakening frontal boundary from the west will move into the region on Friday (Christmas Eve) with the chance of some light snow or snow shower activity. While it is still several days away and in the model guidance uncertainty zone, this type of pattern usually produces something that will equate more to “festive flakes” rather than becoming a travel issue, but it will be something to keep an eye on…

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 23-30. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. A period of rain likely southeastern MA & RI. A chance of rain with pockets of freezing rain and sleet southeastern NH through northeastern and central MA to northeastern CT. Highs 35-42, except 42-49 Cape Cod & Islands. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Chance of light snow overnight. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE): Cloudy with a chance of light snow morning. Variably cloudy with a chance of snow showers afternoon. Highs 31-38. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 25-29)

A frontal boundary and wave of low pressure along it should bring the chance of rain/mix/snow for Christmas Day – timing and details uncertain. Low pressure pulls to the east and strengthens while an upper disturbance crosses the region Sunday December 26 with a chance of snow showers. Generally dry and seasonably cold weather is expected thereafter, though we may need to watch for a weak system to impact the region at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 30 – JANUARY 3)

A weak system may impact the region with some precipitation early in the period, with another possible somewhere around the first of the new year, but based on previously-mentioned conditions with guidance and the pattern, no detail is possible this far in advance. Temperatures near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – December 20 2021

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 19-23)

Low pressure moves away today with improving weather after our minor kind-of-winter event. The coldest air of the season-to-date moves in behind this system, but not in a blasting kind of way, but in a quiet way as high pressure settles over the region tonight and sets up radiational cooling with the cold air mass having just arrived. This high will bring us fair but cold weather Monday followed by a slight moderation Tuesday as it moves offshore. A cold front will slip through the region quietly later Tuesday with colder air returning by Wednesday as a storm system evolves offshore. So far it looks like this system will be a miss but we’ll still have to watch it, and also may see some snow showers (except rain or snow showers Cape Cod) from a little trough connecting that system with one to the northwest of our region. The offshore storm moves away and high pressure moves back in Thursday with more fair weather.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy start with a few lingering snow and rain showers. Increasing sunshine follows. Highs 36-43. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing late.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind calm.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 17-24. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers except rain or snow showers Cape Cod. Highs 34-41. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers early. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 24-28)

Active pattern with temperatures running near to below normal. Timing disturbances will be impossible this far out but look for two potentials for precipitation during this period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 29 – JANUARY 2)

Similar pattern of frequent but not too powerful systems with additional opportunities for some precipitation. Temperatures near to below normal.