DAYS 1-5 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

Our latest bout of wet weather now out of our way, we look ahead and more changing weather is in store for southeastern New England as we finish off July and begin August. These final two days of July will feature comfortable air, if not a bit chilly, especially first thing tomorrow morning when, if you’re up and outside, you may wonder if it’s the end of August instead of July. First though, we have a pleasant day today with high temps in the 70s to near 80 and low humidity, however that pleasantness may be interrupted in a few locations by a passing shower, even brief downpour, triggered by a disturbance and pool of cold air aloft passing through the region – a weaker version of what we saw exactly one week ago. This system exits by evening and we see a clearing sky and diminishing breeze, allowing the temperatures to fall quite easily since dew points will also be quite low. Typical cool spots are heading for low temperatures of under 50, while the majority of the region bottoms out in the lower to middle 50s with some of the urban centers in the upper 50s – all quite cool for the final morning of July. But we’ll recover back to the 70s with lots of sun, a few clouds, and continued low humidity Saturday so it will be a very nice summer day despite the autumn-feeling start. It’s onto August on Sunday, a day that looks pretty decent now as we see the wind shift to south ahead of an approaching trough. This will warm it up and bring the humidity up a bit, but also the timing suggests that any threat of showers will hold off until nighttime, with a rain-free daytime – good news if you have outdoor plans. This trough will pull offshore by Monday which will be a seasonably warm day with fair weather and a sun/cloud mix, and then high pressure will build into the region with lots of sun and warmth along with moderate humidity for Tuesday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated afternoon showers and possibly brief downpours. Highs 74-81. Dew point falling from the lower 60s to lower 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Patchy ground fog overnight. Lows 44-51 rural and lower elevation areas, 51-58 elsewhere with mildest in urban centers. Dew point falling into 40s. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle to upper 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear except fog patches forming over interior lower elevations. Lows 52-57. Dew point upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point rising toward 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 77-84. Dew point near 60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 4-8)

Upper level flow becoming weaker and more southerly during this period. Seasonable warmth and somewhat higher humidity will be more dominant. Middle of the period is greatest chance for shower activity when we’ll have to watch a disturbance from the south.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 9-13)

Transition back toward more westerly flow by the middle of August probably means another round of unsettled weather somewhere during this period, favoring mid period. No major temperature departures from normal are indicated at this time.

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C-19 Chat Post – July 30 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

Low pressure approaches from the west today, but a good part of the day will be rain-free other than a few potential pop up showers mainly west of the I-95 belt due to increased moisture combined with daytime heating. The main unsettled weather with this system will occur tonight as an occluded front will be passing through most of the region. The triple-point will be passing in the vicinity of the South Coast, but may remain just to the south, and this is important for determining the chance for severe weather in that region. A strong disturbance coming through from the Midwest brings atmospheric conditions conducive to severe weather including rotating thunderstorms, but it appears most of this and possibly all of this volatility may pass just to the south, but must be monitored closely. Friday, this system will be exiting early in the day and we’ll get into a drier northwesterly air flow, but upper level low pressure crossing the region can still trigger a shower or even brief thunderstorm, a couple of which may produce small hail, but I don’t expect as much of this as we had in a similar but stronger set-up last Friday. Just keep in mind that a quick interruption may occur if you have outdoor plans. The coolest air in quite some time will come into the region Friday night, and if you’re an early riser on Saturday it may feel more like late August to you than the end of July, but Saturday itself will be a very nice day with a temperature recovery and nice dry air. We say hello to August on Sunday while watching for another system approaching from the west, current timing of which suggest that most shower activity will occur Sunday night, leaving most of the daylight hours of Sunday, as it approaches, and Monday, as it moves away, on the dry side.

TODAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. A passing shower possible mainly west of I-95 midday on. Highs 76-83. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH with gusts to 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few showers and possibly a thunderstorm mostly west of I-95 evening. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms, especially south of I-90, overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to N. Potentially stronger winds in any thunderstorms near the South Coast.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible midday and afternoon. Highs 76-83. Dew point near 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy ground fog overnight. Lows 50-57. Dew point falling to upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear except fog patches forming over interior lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly late in the afternoon favoring western areas. Highs 76-83. Dew point rising to near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 77-84. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 3-7)

A weakening of the dominant west northwest air flow, becoming a weaker west to southwest flow as there will also be a tendency for more high pressure off the US East Coast. This opens the door for higher humidity and warmth but no major sustained heat. One boundary should stay to the north with showers and thunderstorms more to the north of our region, but another boundary to the south may lift northward and increase the chance for showers/storms as we get to later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 8-12)

A continuation of more dominant warmth and humidity but with the additional of more shower and thunderstorm opportunities as a frontal boundary hangs around close to the region.

C-19 Chat Post – July 29 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

A lot is going on with our weather pattern these days so let’s go through it. Yesterday’s higher humidity, warmth, showers, and thunderstorms are gone, but not before a swatch of stronger storms with scattered wind damage occurred, especially along and either side of I-90 (just a bit further south than I had expected the axis of stronger storms to be). A cold front has passed by and is exiting via the South Coast early this morning, with lingering cloudiness and still a few showers possible up until mid morning. This afternoon, the arrival of dry air will help to clear the sky, but a north to northeast breeze will also transport rather cool air into the region, as much as 20 to 25 degrees cooler than the high temperatures of Tuesday. So if you have outdoor plans , the afternoon is your driest time and the evening will be rather cool for late July. We see a temperature rebound a little bit on Thursday but this will come with a bit of a price, in the form of more clouds and the threat of a shower or two as a warm front moves into and across the region. This will be followed by a cold front coming through that evening and night, parented by low pressure passing north of the region. This cold front will bring the risk of showers and thunderstorms, mostly during the evening. Right now I’m not expecting a repeat of what took place last night, but we may have to watch for a few stronger storms. Friday, drier air arrives again, but some upper level energy and a pool of cold air aloft may trigger a few pop up showers and thunderstorms. That will be out of here by Friday night and set us up for a dry and pleasant final day of July, courtesy Canadian high pressure. With moderate confidence I tell you that the first day of August on Sunday should be seasonably warm and more humid but with a chance of showers and thunderstorms are some point during the day, depending on the timing of an approaching disturbance and front.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered to isolated showers until mid morning followed by increasing sunshine north to south. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Dew point falling to middle 50s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear evening then some clouds returning during the overnight. Patchy ground fog forming late at night mainly interior lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point middle 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Lots of clouds but partial sunshine and just a chance of a shower. Highs 76-83. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms, mainly during the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 76-83. Dew point near 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers early, then clearing. Patchy ground fog forming late. Lows 56-63. Dew point falling to middle 50s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear except fog patches forming over interior lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 76-83. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 2-6)

A weakening of the dominant west northwest air flow, becoming a weaker west to southwest flow as there will also be a tendency for more high pressure off the US East Coast. This opens the door for higher humidity, warmth but no major sustained heat, and a few shower and thunderstorm opportunities, but limited. It looks like the boundary between this and cooler air in Canada will stay mostly to the north of the region.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 7-11)

A continuation of more dominant warmth and humidity but with the additional of more shower and thunderstorm opportunities as a frontal boundary hangs around close to the region.

C-19 Chat Post – July 28 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 27-31)

Some up and down temperatures and weather as we head through the final 5 days of July, but if you are on vacation this week, overall it’s a pretty decent week, which started out yesterday with smokey sunshine, a bit of heat, but manageable humidity. As high pressure sits offshore today the humidity will up-tick as the temperatures stay quite warm, but a cold front moving this way is set to bring a significant change. If you have outdoor plans, such as the beach, today turns out quite decent as most of the cloud cover and the shower / t-storm threat holds off until the end of the day and especially this evening. The thicker plume of wildfire smoke (from Canada and the western US) has moved on and we are left with some thinner smoke today, and then the plume will be pushed south of the region by tomorrow. We may see it come back marginally at times later this week, but not to the extent we had it yesterday. We will probably see two rounds of showers and thunderstorms, one with a pre-frontal trough, with activity concentrated mostly north of I-90, but some still possible to the south, and another round with the actual cold front, a little more spread out along the boundary as showers with embedded thunderstorms a little bit later in the evening. If there are going to be severe thunderstorms, they will most likely occur with the first batch, favoring areas north of I-90 in the 6PM to 9PM window, with damaging wind gusts as the main threat. The cold front will still be crossing southeastern MA and RI when we get to Wednesday morning so the day may start with a lot of clouds and a few showers around, especially in those locations, but during the day we end up with a fair amount of sunshine taking over on a drier and cooler north to northeast air flow, as high pressure moves toward the region from Canada. This high slips right across the area Wednesday night, which will be tranquil with a lighter wind and pleasantly cool mid summer air, but watch for some fog to form over inland locations at lower elevations where the temperature can easily fall to match the dew point, even with the dew points being down somewhat. I’ve been talking about Thursday as a day with an unsettled weather threat, and that is still the case, but as it stands now the warm front that comes along first doesn’t look like it will have a lot of support for activity, so just expecting a varying amount of cloudiness but a generally rain-free daytime, with most of the shower and potential thunderstorm activity holding off until evening or night with an approaching and passing cold front. The humidity will come back up a bit during Thursday as the warm front leads an air mass into the region from the southwest but behind the cold front comes another shot of drier air for Friday. With some upper level energy set to cross the region on Friday I can’t rule out some pop up showers or thunderstorms, but they should be generally isolated. A small area of high pressure is expected to bring nice weather to the region for the final day of July on Saturday.

TODAY: Lots of sun filtered by smoke into afternoon giving way to more clouds later in the day. A shower or thunderstorm possible mainly southwestern NH and central MA by late afternoon. Highs 81-88 except cooler South Coast especially Cape Cod. Dew point rising through 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, most widespread north of I-90 and more scattered to the south. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point falling slowly through 60s. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH shifting to N overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Lots of clouds and a chance of showers southeastern MA and RI until mid morning, otherwise partly to mostly sunny. Highs 72-79. Dew point near 60 then falling through 50s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy ground fog forming late. Lows 55-62. Dew point near 50 then rising through 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Only a slight chance of a passing shower. Highs 76-83. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms evening. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 76-83. Dew point near 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers early, then clearing. Patchy ground fog forming late. Lows 56-63. Dew point falling to middle 50s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 1-5)

August arrives, typically the month with perhaps the weakest upper level steering on average, and we’ll start it with a continuation of but probably also a weakening of the west to northwest air flow driving the pattern. This does allow seasonal humidity to spike ahead of drier intrusions from Canada. Current timing indicates these disturbances will be passing by about every other day, so we could see shower and thunderstorm threats about August 1, 3, and 5, but with most of the 5-day period being rain-free. Temperatures would be variable but not feature major swings, and would average out to fairly close to normal in this pattern. As always, day-to-day details can’t be determined this far in advance.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 6-10)

A weakening of the westerly flow aloft and more high pressure off the US East Coast allows warmth and humidity to become a little more dominant. There will still be a few opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, and we have to watch the boundary between the warm/humid air and cooler/dry air in Canada, which for now I think will be mostly to our north. Should it end up further south, we look at going into a wetter pattern, but not expecting this to set up like that at this time.

C-19 Chat Post – July 27 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 26-30)

Humidity drops, temperature goes up to start this week off. Today will be the pick of the week for combination of warmth but lack of mugginess as high pressure builds in from the Ohio Valley. This air is warm, but its origin was from dry places. Today will be a day free of any kind of rain threat too. Great beach day (hmm, that sounds like a great idea to me!). 😉 While we are no longer in the really wet July pattern we were in for the first 2/3 of the month, we are still in a somewhat active pattern and will be visited by a couple of systems bringing threats of wet weather, but these are passing systems and not lingering ones, as the pattern is rather progressive. The first threat comes later Tuesday as a cold front approaches with a shower and storm chance which will occur mostly later in the day, so a good part of the day can be enjoyed without the threat of such activity messing with your plans. These showers and storms will exit during Tuesday evening and high pressure builds in from Canada for Wednesday with dry, cooler weather. But the next disturbance is fast approaching behind that and Thursday looks like an unsettled day with a warm front / cold front combo bringing a couple rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms. This exits at night, and Friday will be better, but not perfect, as an upper level low crossing the region with a pool of colder air aloft can and probably will trigger a few isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms that day – still though there’s a good probability that most of that day is rain-free in any one location. One other thing we will see a bit more of again this week is rounds of wild fire smoke from both the western US and Canada, as the jet stream will be in position once again to carry them across our sky.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90, cooler Cape Cod. Dew point drops through 60s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches interior low elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Mid to late afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 78-85. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew upper 60s evening falling to near 60 overnight. . Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH evening, shifting to N overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point near 60. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 57-64. Dew point middle 50s, rising toward 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Dew point rising through 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms evening. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 76-83. Dew point near 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

The July 31 / August 1 weekend should be mostly dry overall but a fast-moving trough or front may interrupted it briefly with a shower threat. Humidity should remain rather low for those days. Humidity up-ticks thereafter with another shower or thunderstorm possible at times in a weak westerly flow with minor disturbances early next week (August 2-4).

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 5-9)

Typical early August warmth / borderline heat at times, moderate to higher humidity, but limited opportunities for showers and thunderstorms in a weaker westerly air flow for the first part of this period, then a stronger disturbance may bring a better chance of some unsettled weather after that.

C-19 Chat Post – July 26 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 25-29)

It’s easy to get up and look out the window this morning to showers moving through and thinking to yourself we haven’t changed weather patterns at all. But, we have. We’re in a pattern now, while still “active” in terms of regular systems passing by, they are doing just that, passing by, and not sitting on us for several days at a time with excessive rainfall amounts. Right now, we’re in the midst of the passage of a disturbance (low pressure passing to the north) which will drag its warm front across the region today and then its cold front during tonight. This does mean an unsettled weather day, but most of the rainfall we see is with the warm front this morning. Once we reach midday and afternoon, we see less rainfall around, and largely rain-free time with just the chance of a few showers and thunderstorms developing in a somewhat unstable and humid air mass. A final round of showers and storms may visit some areas with the cold front tonight, and this sets us up for a great summer day Monday as high pressure over the Upper Ohio Valley stretches toward New England. But it appears in this “things keep moving along” pattern we’re due for a frontal passage about every other day, and we’ll watch for something coming along later Tuesday and again, based on current timing, during the day Thursday, with shower and thunderstorm possibilities, with high pressure between the 2 systems providing a nice day for Wednesday. Again, none of these look like all-day rain events, though Thursday’s may be a bit more “spread out” as opposed to Tuesday’s more concise and shorter-duration impact event. As always, fine tuning will be done as we get close to each of these…

TODAY: Cloudy with periodic rain through mid morning tapering off from west to east by midday. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny midday on with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible from mid afternoon on. Highs 77-84, cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point climbing through 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH morning, SW 5-15 MPH afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W toward dawn.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point falling through 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 78-85. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 60. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 57-64. Dew point middle 50s, rising toward 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Dew point rising through 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

Every-other-day pattern continues with a west northwesterly flow and best chances for showers / t-storms July 31 and August 2. Temperatures slightly variable but mostly near normal with no lasting significant heat.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 4-8)

Similar pattern relaxes a little bit, tendency for warmer to hotter weather increases a little and shower / t-storm chances remain limited at first, but may have to watch later in the period for a slower-moving frontal boundary in the area with an increased chance of wet weather

C-19 Chat Post – July 25 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 24-28)

Lovely. Simply lovely. This describes today, and might be heard by people with young children watching that very popular show from the UK, making little ones from the US speak like they are British (look it up). 😉 Anyway, a very nice day today courtesy high pressure that slides eastward across New England from the Ohio Valley. However, there is still just enough cold air upstairs to allow some cumulus clouds to pop up during the day. But this time, unlike the last 2 days, they should not grow enough to produce showers. (Come on cumulus, I dare you!) With high pressure building overhead, the wind will be light and this will allow coastal sea breeze to develop. If you have beach plans, expect temperatures to max out in the 70s, which may not be as warm as you’d like, but considering the weather pattern we’ve been in in terms of cloud cover and rainfall, with sunshine this will still be quite nice. However we do have some changes coming in short order, and that will be tomorrow as a warm front crosses the region during the morning hours. The timing on this is a little faster than I thought yesterday, though I did indicate that the timing may be quicker than I was going for. That is indeed the case. So the warm front approaches and passes through during the morning and will produce a band of at least scattered to broken rainfall, most of which should be on the light side but some of it may be moderate with some decent instability at mid levels, but that will be out of here by midday, and even though we likely don’t see complete clearing, we do see a jump up in humidity and a fairly warm day, with a lot of rain-free time in the afternoon, however it will be unstable enough that we’ll need to watch for a couple cluster of thunderstorms somewhere in the region. The cold front that trails the low that also parents the warm front will cross the region in the pre-dawn hours of Monday, also faster timing than previously forecast, so a few showers and storms may visit the region during the nocturnal time, but I think the daylight hours of Monday are going to be rain-free, rather warm, but with lowering humidity and (shh, don’t tell too many people) may be one of the best beach days of the summer. When we get to Tuesday, we’ll be watching the next disturbance approach from the west, and with timing uncertain, the best call for now is for afternoon or nighttime showers and thunderstorms being possible, and this system should progress quickly enough to be on the exit by Wednesday, which looks like after an early shower threat becomes a drier and somewhat cooler day.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 76-83, coolest in coastal areas. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind W up to 10 MPH becoming variable with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with a period or two of rain likely during the morning from west to east. Mostly cloudy with possible breaks of sun, but also isolated thunderstorms possible during the afternoon. Highs 77-84, cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point climbing through 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH morning, SW 5-15 MPH afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W toward dawn.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point falling through 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 78-85. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds and a shower chance early, then partly sunny. Highs 74-81. Dew point lower to near 60. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

Best opportunities for showers/t-storms July 29 and August 1 based on current timing of disturbances in an otherwise mostly dry west northwest air flow across the region. No major heat – temperatures slightly variable but mostly near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 3-7)

Overall pattern of west to northwesterly air flow, with no major heat, temperatures near normal, and a similar overall regime with passing disturbances bringing a couple shower and t-storm chances.

C-19 Chat Post – July 24 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 23-27)

So yesterday the atmosphere decided to make showers that were not really forecast (except by a couple short range models if one was paying close enough attention). I did not put them in my forecast, thinking fair-weather clouds were sufficient to predict, not expecting them to grow enough to produce showers. But they did, albeit isolated. Still, if you were under one of these, they did produce a few downpours, and a bonus rainbow or two (I saw a brief double. In fact, I saw a rain bow and in the opposite part of the sky a sun dog, seeing both at the same time for the first time, which was cool!). So I’ll take the minor forecast miss and yet another lesson learned for that nice little bonus at the end of my day. Today, we have these showers in the forecast, as a disturbance will be crossing the region this afternoon and early evening, but once again they should be fairly isolated in coverage, but should you be visited by one, a down pour could occur for a brief time. Primary window for activity today, which may include some thunder too, is about 2:00 p.m. to about sunset (mid afternoon through early evening). After that we’ll see clearing and a refreshing air mass reinforced, setting us up for a beautiful day on Saturday with lots of sun with mild and dry air. Now, our pattern is improved over recent abundant overcast and rainfall, but we’re still somewhat unsettled, and that will be evident Sunday as the next disturbance moves into the mean trough position in our region, a warm front bringing lots of clouds and occasional wet weather, especially in the afternoon and evening based on current timing. These systems can move more quickly than prognosticated by even shorter-range guidance so it would not surprise me if showers are already nearby in the morning. Based on this, the forecast wording will reflect a shower threat all day, but but at this time it seems likely that the greatest chance and highest coverage will occur as we get deeper into the day, if you want to take the chance on planning something outside. A warm front will push through later Sunday, and a cold front will follow this, probably passing by during Monday morning. Monday will be a day we’ll likely see our shower chances start out higher, then drop off with fair and slightly less humid air following a Sunday night humidity spike. Tuesday should be a mostly dry and seasonably warm day, but a weak disturbance moving by may be enough to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours, but being several days away, the certainty is not there, and I’ll take a closer look at that as we go along.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms mostly mid afternoon on. Highs 76-83. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog lower elevation areas. Lows 55-62. Dew point middle 50s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lower elevation fog patches. Lows 57-64. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Shower chances increasing throughout the day. Highs 76-83. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to S.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely evening. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm, favoring the morning-midday hours. Highs 78-85. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

Overall pattern is drier, but not without shower/thunderstorm chances, which seem highest from later July 28 into July 29 at this time, based on best timing of strongest disturbances coming along a mostly west to northwest flow. Temperatures for the period averaging close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 2-6)

Overall pattern of west to northwesterly air flow, with no major heat, temperatures near normal, and a drier overall regime with limited shower chances.