C-19 Chat Post – August 7 2021

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 6-10)

High pressure builds across the northern Middle Atlantic States and Northeast today into Saturday, finally returning the more typical feel of summer to our region. However by later Saturday the center of the high will shift further east and there will be a weak area of low pressure south of New England while at the same time a cold front slowly moves into northern New England, with both systems then edging a little closer on Sunday. This will result in a slight up-tick in the chances for a few showers and thunderstorms, not so much later Saturday as I think activity will remain outside of the WHW area, but on Sunday. Even still, this will be more miss than hit, so all in all the weekend will not be too bad at all. The front to the north will slip down across the region Sunday night and an area of high pressure in Canada behind it will help deliver a maritime modified air mass to the region Monday into Tuesday while weak low pressure hangs out to the south of New England, keeping any of its shower activity offshore of the South Coast.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87 except slightly cooler in coastal locations. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH including some coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog forming in interior lower elevation areas. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SSW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 83-90, cooler South Coast. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 82-89, cooler South Coast. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 59-64. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind E under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 11-15)

Predominant pattern features high pressure off the US East Coast with warmer to hotter and fairly humid weather and limited shower and thunderstorm chances for our region.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 16-20)

Unsettled weather is most likely early in the period as high pressure offshore gives way to a stronger high pressure area from Canada which will bring drier air to the region before humidity increases again later in the period.

C-19 Chat Post – August 6 2021

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 5-9)

A frontal boundary sitting across southeastern New England with ripples of low pressure moving along it has a ribbon of rainfall about where we expected it would be, heaviest in the I-95 corridor, during this morning. The final wave of low pressure comes up and across the region during midday and the rain area will become a little more disorganized and showery before tapering off from south to north during this afternoon. Under the heaviest rainfall we can see some flooding issue, mainly road flooding and poor drainage area flooding, but conditions will improve this evening. This system skedaddles out of here tonight and high pressure builds from the Ohio Valley toward the Middle Atlantic States then offshore delivering warm and dry air to our region Friday and Saturday with moderate levels of humidity. A low pressure trough will approach from the northwest by late Saturday but any showers and storms associated with it are expected to occur in the mountains of western and northern New England. This trough line will be progressing through southeastern New England Sunday and will help trigger a few showers and thunderstorms, but much of the day in any given area will be rain-free that day as well. High pressure to the north of the region will deliver a cooler easterly air flow on Monday.

TODAY: Cloudy with widespread showers, heavy at times, I-95 belt eastward, with occasional mostly lighter showers to the west through midday, then numerous to scattered showers all areas first half of afternoon ending south to north thereafter with breaking clouds later in the day. Areas of fog. Highs 69-76. Dew point in 60s. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60s. Wind SE to S under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60s. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60s. Wind SSW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 81-88, cooler South Coast. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 80-87, cooler South Coast. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 10-14)

Predominant pattern features high pressure off the US East Coast with warm and fairly humid weather and limited shower and thunderstorm chances for our region.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 15-19)

Unsettled weather is most likely early in the period as high pressure offshore gives way to a stronger high pressure area from Canada which will bring drier air to the region.

C-19 Chat Post – August 5 2021

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 4-8)

The continuation of the fine-tuning process for the upcoming wet weather event goes on even in the final hours before it arrives. If you recall, our guidance just a few days ago was overwhelmingly in favor of rain-free weather through early Thursday and wet weather later Thursday through Friday. How’s that going to work out? Not well. And this is why I (and other mets) often caution and remind people not to trust guidance so easily beyond just a few days, because many times it will lead you very astray. Here, yet again, we have another in an endless string of examples of this. Anyway, the job now is to focus in on this event, which is now a Wednesday night into Thursday event, and will be on the heavy side for some of the region, but will spare many areas that suffered previous flooding issues. This particular set-up is not part of the same pattern that brought us our wet weather in July. This is a different pattern, drier overall, but still capable of delivering a solid wet weather event. This one will be the result of high pressure building off the US East Coast and pushing a frontal boundary westward into coastal New England during the next couple days, with a passing wave of low pressure the shower activity along that front evolves into a fairly solid area of rainfall that will move south to north through the region tonight into Thursday before exiting during the second half of Thursday. The swath of heaviest rainfall should be somewhere in the I-95 belt and eastward, but that doesn’t mean some briefly heavier rain can’t reach a bit further west than that. It just looks like the areas in southwestern NH that struggled with flooding will miss out on the heaviest, which is good, and that a good portion of still-dry Cape Cod will get in on some decent rain, which is also good, but some areas between that don’t need it end up with some flooding issues, which is not good. The good news is this will be a fairly short-lived event, a matter of hours versus several days and episodes of wet weather. As we get to later this week and the weekend, we’ll be largely rain-free with a warming trend and more humidity. A few diurnal showers and thunderstorms may pop up well inland later Saturday and a few more may develop on Sunday with the help of an approaching weak trough of low pressure, but this won’t be a return to a wet weather pattern, just more typical summertime weather.

TODAY: Filtered sunshine then clouds thicken up again from south to north. Highs 73-80, coolest coastal areas. Dew point ranging from middle 50s north central MA to middle 60s South Coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Widespread showers arriving from south to north, heaviest I-95 corridor southeastward with a chance of embedded thunder. Flash flooding may occur in prone areas. Areas of fog forming. Lows 62-69. Dew point in 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with numerous showers in the morning, heaviest I-95 belt southeastward, including the slight chance of thunderstorms and areas of fog. Breaking clouds with showers ending from south to north afternoon. Highs 69-76. Dew point in 60s. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60s. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60s. Wind SSW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms possible favoring central MA / southwestern NH. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs 80-87. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 9-13)

Larger scale: High pressure off the US East Coast is an overall warm to hot August pattern but with limited rain chances. Regional scale: high pressure at the surface centered to the north will bring an easterly flow in for August 9 with modified temperatures and slightly less humid air here, then we’ll experience more warmth and humidity after that.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 14-18)

High pressure off the Atlantic Coast but also high pressure in eastern Canada means a boundary between the two may be closer to our region with continued warmth but a better chance of showers and thunderstorms during mid month.

C-19 Chat Post – August 4 2021

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 3-7)

We sit on the drier side of a boundary which will be drifting north and west over the coming days as high pressure starts to gain more anchor off the US East Coast, although this entire process will be quite slow. A large shield of cloudiness will fan up across the region today to the north and west of this boundary due to more humid air riding up over the drier air we have at the surface. Eventually these clouds will thicken and lower and we’ll have our greatest chance of showery weather from later Wednesday into Thursday as a wave of low pressure moves by on the boundary as it gets closer and moves into southeastern New England. Right now it appears that rainfall will be most concentrated and heaviest over Cape Cod and Nantucket – the places that actually need it as they had missed out on a large percentage of July’s rainfall and sit in abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions. The boundary washes out and dissipates over our region Friday and Saturday as high pressure continues to become more established off the East Coast, resulting in a warming trend, increased humidity, but not oppressive, and rain chances limited to only a few diurnal showers or thunderstorms far inland later Saturday.

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 76-83, coolest coastal areas. Dew points ranging from near 50 interior MA to the lower 60s South Coast but will rise slowly especially interior MA through the 50s to near 60 by the end of the day. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers developing south to north in the afternoon, especially I-95 corridor southeastward. Highs 75-82. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely especially I-95 belt southeastward, heaviest Cape Cod. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, most numerous I-95 belt southeastward. Highs 69-76. Dew point 60s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers diminishing. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60s. Wind SSW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms possible favoring central MA / southwestern NH. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 8-12)

Trend is for stronger high pressure in the western Atlantic. At the surface a weak boundary may turn the wind back to easterly for a time August 8-9 with moderate temperatures, then a stronger push of southwesterly wind means some heat building in during the middle to end of this period. Limited shower and thunderstorm activity with most of the time rain-free.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 13-17)

High pressure off the Atlantic Coast but also high pressure in eastern Canada means a boundary between the two may be closer to our region with continued warmth but a better chance of showers and thunderstorms during mid month.

C-19 Chat Post – August 3 2021

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 2-6)

As we go through the first full week of August you’ll notice our pattern has quieted down in comparison to what we dealt with during most of July. This is going to take place because we’ll have a fairly stable set-up with weak to moderate strength high pressure off the US East Coast and a frontal boundary sitting to the south and east of the region, but as it appears now it will have a fairly minimal impact on the region, being far enough east to keep most of the shower activity along it out over the water, with just some occasional cloudiness visiting our sky Tuesday and Wednesday, and the greatest chance of shower activity favoring southeastern areas (RI, southeastern and eastern MA, and the NH Seacoast region), with this activity most likely Thursday into part of Friday. This pattern features more in the way of humidity than we’ve seen over the last few days, but nothing overly oppressive.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 77-84. Dew point near 60. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly clear. A few patches of fog interior lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 76-83, coolest coastal areas. Dew point near 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers mainly Cape Cod. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Possible showers favoring the I-95 corridor southeastward. RI and southeastern MA. Highs 72-79. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring the I-95 corridor southeastward. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm risk, favoring eastern areas through early afternoon. Highs 73-80. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 7-11)

Stronger Atlantic high pressure means warmer temperatures and mostly rain-free with minimal shower and thunderstorm chances for the August 7-8 weekend. Slightly better chance of showers/thunderstorms during August 9-11 with a frontal boundary closer to the region and more moisture available.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 12-16)

Southwesterly to westerly air flow expected during this period. There may be a period of higher heat as well as continued higher humidity for a time before it dries out toward the end of the period. Best chance of showers/thunderstorms would take place during the transition from humid to less humid.

C-19 Chat Post – August 2 2021

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 1-5)

August arrives. The final month of meteorological summer will start out in typical fashion, seasonably warm, a little more humidity coming in, plenty of rain-free time but also some rain chances during its opening five days, but those rain chances will be rather limited with a hint of uncertainty. First, we get through 99% of today’s daylight without any rain threat, but we have two systems approaching us from the southwest, one that is going to pass to our northwest and another that is going to pass to our southeast but close enough to produce a generally light rainfall this evening and tonight. However, a swath of heavier rain is expected near the South Coast of RI and especially over the South Coast region of Massachusetts including Cape Cod. This is one place where rain is actually needed as they have been dry there. Elsewhere, there is certainly no dire need for rain and there won’t be much. These system exit Monday and other than a very light chance of a brief pop up shower on a weak trough line passing through, it will be a dry day. High pressure builds in for more dry weather Tuesday and will try to hold through Wednesday as well, but there will be a frontal boundary not far to the south and a little wave of low pressure will try to drag that close to or possibly into the region by Wednesday. For now, keeping this day rain-free, but can’t rule out some rain getting into at least the South Coast and/or eastern MA/RI, depending on how it evolves. So this part of the forecast may be adjusted. This boundary is also expected to hang near the region Thursday as well with better chances for shower activity, again favoring eastern areas. Details of that mid week shower threat will need to be fine-tuned.

TODAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point rising toward 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Heaviest rainfall South Coast of RI/MA especially Cape Cod. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a brief passing shower or thunderstorm. Highs 77-84. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches forming. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest South Coast. Dew point middle 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers favoring RI and eastern MA. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point middle 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring RI, eastern MA, and southeastern NH. Highs 75-82. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 6-10)

A southerly air flow will bring additional tropical moisture and an accompanying disturbance will result in a better chance of showers August 6. Warm and humid south southwest flow with a few diurnal showers and thunderstorms possible otherwise mostly rain-free for the August 7-9 time frame before a disturbance from the west brings a better chance of showers and thunderstorms by period’s end.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 11-15)

Air flow becomes more westerly with some up and down temperatures but no lasting major heat expected. A couple shower/thunderstorm opportunities but most of the time looks rain-free.

C-19 Chat Post – August 1 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

It may be mid summer still, but this final day of July has started out almost with a hint of fall in the air with a nice cool air mass in place and a gusty breeze picking up again. The breeze will settle back down and the temperature will climb enough to remind you it’s still summertime, though it will be a cooler-than-normal day, but nice and dry for enjoying outdoors. A wind shift to south brings in more humidity and eventually we see more clouds on Sunday as two systems approach the region, a trough to the west and low pressure to the south. It looks like our greatest chance of rainfall comes Sunday night, but will be limited as we are basically between the two disturbances. The southern low brings the best chance of rainfall to the South Coast region while the western trough brings a shower threat to areas mostly north and west of I-95 Sunday night, but that trough line will swing through the region Monday and still may produce a brief shower or thunderstorm as it passes by. Otherwise Monday’s trend will be for slightly drier but seasonably warm air. High pressure is going to become more established off the US East Coast in the early days of August and by Tuesday and Wednesday we’ll find ourselves in a south southwesterly air flow of warmth and somewhat higher humidity, but likely absent of any rainfall.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle to upper 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear except fog patches forming over interior lower elevations. Lows 52-57. Dew point upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point rising toward 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a brief passing shower or thunderstorm. Highs 77-84. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches forming. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest South Coast. Dew point middle 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 5-9)

A southerly air flow and increased tropical moisture brings a better chance of shower activity during the August 5-6 period before high pressure strengthens and keeps us warm and fairly humid but with mostly rain-free weather for the August 7-8 weekend and on through period’s end.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 10-14)

Transition back toward more westerly flow into the middle of August probably means another round of unsettled weather somewhere during this period, favoring early to mid period. No major temperature departures from normal are indicated at this time.

C-19 Chat Post – July 31 2021