DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 14-18)
Transition day! We start out in the hot/humid air mass we have been in during the last few days, although a cold front is heading this way and is going to cut across the region from northwest to southeast during the day, exiting via Cape Cod by tonight. This will deliver a cooler/drier air mass to our region, but to get there, we’ll have to go through a shower and thunderstorm threat. It still looks like a fairly low coverage event overall, with under 50% of the region seeing any activity of note, and possibly 25% or less of the region seeing the heaviest shower and thunderstorm activity. Of course, if you happen to be visited by one of these heavier storms, you can see briefly strong and gusty wind, torrential downpours, lightning, and even some small hail. This type of occurrence will be rather isolated though. For many, this change may be marked by clouds, a gusty breeze, and a lighter shower, or even no rain at all. But if you are out and about today, be prepared for a thunderstorm. This threat will decline rather quickly as we get to mid to late afternoon from northwest to southeast, with only the South Coast still seeing the chance of a shower or storm into early tonight. Sunday through Wednesday we will enjoy 4 days with no rainfall threat thanks to an area of high pressure that comes in from Canada, first sits off to the northwest and north of our area, then right over the region, and then slips off to the southeast. This will account for subtle changes during the fair weather stretch. Sunday’s weather will be governed by a light northerly air flow bringing in the driest air, and then the wind turns more easterly Monday with a more maritime feel, an uptick in humidity you won’t really notice because the air will still be refreshingly cool. Once we get to Tuesday and Wednesday, a more southerly air flow will transport higher humidity into the region, though not oppressive, and without the heat to accompany it. There will also be an increase in cloud cover by Wednesday, but still this 4-day stretch will be one of the best of the summer.
TODAY: Mostly sunny early, then variably cloudy with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms from late morning through afternoon, favoring southwestern NH and central MA first, then southeastern NH through eastern MA, eastern CT and RI early through mid afternoon, and areas to the southeast mid afternoon on. Isolated locations may see strong storms. Highs 84-91. Dew point near 70 but falling through the 60s from northwest to southeast by the end of the day. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.
TONIGHT: Clouds and a few showers/thunderstorms possible South Coast early, otherwise mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point falling into 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind variable to N under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog lower elevations. Lows 57-64. Dew point upper 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind variable up to S 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 19-23)
High pressure off the Atlantic Coast helps open the door for some tropical moisture which results in warm and humid weather here with the daily chance of showers and thunderstorms, but also plenty of rain-free time too. We’ll have to watch for a frontal boundary approaching from the west later in the period which may enhance the shower/storm risk somewhat.
DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 24-28)
This will continue to be the time period we need to keep an eye on tropical activity off the East Coast or remnant moisture coming this way by way of the Southeast / Mid Atlantic States. Again this is far out there in the future and there is no guarantee we end up seeing anything significant. In fact, high pressure that is forecast by guidance at this time to be to our west and north may very well build in and protect the region from unsettled weather. There will be a lot of fine-tuning to do with the late August forecast.