C-19 Chat Post – August 22 2021

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 21-25)

First, a fairly nice though humid late August day today to start the weekend. All eyes on Henri now, though we still have about 24 hours or a little less to nail down the final details and make any preparation needed, though it must be stressed at this point that while Henri is going to cause some local flooding and power outage issues, this is not going to be a classic New England hurricane either. In fact, I don’t even think Henri will be a hurricane anymore when the center reaches land, which I am becoming more confident is going to take place somewhere on the western half of Long Island (though there is still some room for adjustment here). This represents the “left turn” scenario I described as a possible scenario. This scenario would spare our region a significant storm surge and the heaviest rain area, and while we’d still be on the storm’s windy side, its smaller size, westward turn, and weakening would also mean that wind would not be as strong as a storm with a larger wind field and further eastward track would bring us. Since we will be on the eastern side, and the precipitation will be convective and showery, there will be the conditions in place once again that can support the development of small, brief tornadoes, so we need to be on the look-out for that during the day Sunday. The timing of the system is a touch faster than I thought about 24 hours ago, so we can see these showers at any time. Henri’s movement is far enough west that we can see breaks of sunshine as well. I am still a little unsure how the center responds to steering once it gets across Long Island. It probably goes into western CT and possibly NY. Not quite sure if the then small and weaker center drifts northward before heading back eastward, or goes stationary before coming back eastward. These details will have implications on wind direction and precipitation orientation. Whatever is left of the system should take its time exiting the region from west to east during Monday, so we can expect unsettled weather that day as well. Finally, drier air arrives Tuesday into midweek as high pressure builds in from the west.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to E during the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers arriving South Coast overnight and up to I-90 and Greater Boston by dawn. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point middle to lower 60s. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Occasional to numerous showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Dew point lower to middle 70s. Wind SE 10-20 MPH inland and 15-30 MPH coastal areas with higher gusts, and locally damaging wind gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with areas of fog and periodic showers, some possibly heavy. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SE to S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with occasional showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable to SW to W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 26-30)

High pressure will be the dominant force in the weather with mostly rain-free conditions and near to above normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 31 – SEPTEMBER 4)

High pressure is expected to dominate, with limited rain chances and fairly warm weather.

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C-19 Chat Post – August 21 2021

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 20-24)

Tropical moisture lingers in the form of fog, drizzle, and a few showers, but a drying trend (in terms of rain chances) takes place today, but not so much humidity, that will be sticking around (pun potentially intended) for a while. A more general onshore flow will develop as we get into the weekend which will keep temperatures in check though, so no high heat to go along with the mugginess. As you know by now, a hurricane watch has been issued for the New England South Coast in response to the threat from Henri, which is going to make an approach to New England later this weekend from the south. There are still questions to be answered regarding the ultimate track of the center of that storm and this will determine the details of its impact on our region. This morning we see a variety of model solutions, which is no surprise, and we see a track from the NHC that brings the center onto the South Coast as a category 1 hurricane late on Sunday. However, there are scenarios on the table still covering a sooner turn to the left, or a jog to the right, and even a non-landfall. So the fine-tuning of this will be ongoing throughout the next few days so we can pin down what is most likely to happen and where. For this blog update, you won’t find grand detail in the forecast because I don’t feel that it is possible to responsibly do that yet. We should just be prepared for all of the things that a system like this can deliver and result in: strong wind with damage, heavy rain, flooding, power outages. Whatever Henri ends up bringing us, we will see improving conditions by later Monday through Tuesday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle with isolated showers into mid morning. Highs 78-85. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to E during the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point middle to lower 60s. Wind E under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Increasing chance of showers, favoring southern areas. Chance of thunderstorms favoring the South Coast in the afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 72-79. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH, may be stronger South Coast region later in the day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast with areas of fog. Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall possible. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle 60s to 70. Wind E to variable 10-20 MPH but could be stronger.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or showers in the morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 25-29)

High pressure will be the dominant force in the weather with mostly rain-free conditions and near to above normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3)

High pressure is expected to dominate, with limited rain chances and fairly warm weather.

C-19 Chat Post – August 20 2021

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 19-23)

Two systems of tropical origin have some impact on our weather the next 5 days. First, the remains of what was once Tropical Storm Fred pass through our region today from southwest to northeast, in the form of a weak low pressure area, but with plenty of moisture. It will produce a couple rounds of showers, the first being a pretty solid batch of rainfall, steadiest I-90 northward, a little more showery to the south. Keep in mind that the low level wind shear associated with systems like this can sometimes lead to brief, usually weak tornadoes occurring with some of the convective cells. These can lead to locally damaging winds and this is a slight possibility during the morning and midday hours as the first batch of showers comes across the region. Also, some localized flooding may occur with heavier rain in poor drainage areas. The second shower batch will be more in the form of a scattered shower area moving through as the low center gets ready to pull away later on, and this system will have made its exit by tonight. A small area of high pressure sneaks in behind it for Friday, which will likely be a rain-free day with the exception of a possible pop up shower, and it will be warm and quite humid. A back-door cold front will slip down from the northeast this weekend with a bit of a cooling trend and a slight drop in the humidity. Our attention will be on Henri, forecast to be a category 1 hurricane south of New England by later in the weekend. There is still a significant deal of uncertainty with the eventual track of this system and its impact on SNE. My advice is to be prepared for an impact while keeping in mind that we may still be impacted minimally. This is all going to depend on the track and strength details, which will reveal themselves the next couple of days. Subtle details of strength of high pressure ridging to the north of the system and a trough of low pressure approaching from the west will have the final say in this, so for now my forecast will reflect the potential for rainfall from the system later Sunday into Monday, with some wind.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Numerous to widespread showers and possible thunderstorms morning-midday southwest to northeast across the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms west to east again later in the day. Highs 75-82. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind S up to 10 MPH. Briefly stronger wind gusts are possible in some showers and storms.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a passing shower this evening. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 80-87. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to E during the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point middle to lower 60s. Wind E under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain is possible mainly later in the day favoring southern areas. Areas of fog.Highs 72-79. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH, may be stronger South Coast region later in the day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with periods of rain and a chance of thunderstorms. Fog likely. Lows 63-70. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH and gusty, may be stronger especially in coastal areas.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or showers in the morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 24-28)

A trough moving through from the west brings the chance of additional shower and thunderstorm activity August 24 possibly into August 25 before high pressure builds in with dry and seasonably warm weather thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 29 – SEPTEMBER 2)

High pressure is expected to dominate, with limited rain chances and fairly warm weather.

C-19 Chat Post – August 19 2021

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 18-22)

Yes, I am aware that some operational runs of a particular model bring Henri as a Category 1 hurricane to a southern New England landfall. But I am also aware that the majority of models’ operational runs and all model ensemble means do not indicate this scenario. My advice: Don’t board the hype train, but pay attention to future forecasts from mets and the NHC. Right now, this is a system that would have its closest pass not before day 5. We have a long way to go. In the mean time, let’s focus on the nearer term. That starts with the arrival of the muggy air today, but with lots of clouds. We won’t see the heat we saw with the high humidity last week, just typical warmth of August as we go through the next few days. Before we have to worry about whatever Henri does (or doesn’t do) to us, we have the remains of Fred coming along to bring us some wet weather. But that isn’t really going to happen until tomorrow, leaving today mostly rain-free with limited shower activity mostly well west and north of Boston. It appears that the track of this system’s remnants, in the form of a weak low pressure area, will be far enough north that here in the WHW forecast area we’ll experience a couple rounds of showers/downpours, with the heaviest rain occurring in areas to our west and north.. Also, expecting a diminished rainfall threat for the end of the week after these remains move away from our region. At this time, I am keeping Sunday’s forecast basically the same as I had yesterday, and we will closely monitor the behavior of Henri, making adjustments in the forecast if needed. Other than focusing on the rough surf that will take place starting this weekend (into early next week), we may not need to change much else. “Stay tuned…”

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A few showers possible mainly southwestern NH, central MA, and eastern CT. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Scattered showers and possible thunderstorms mainly in the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 78-85. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point upper 60s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point middle to lower 60s. Wind E under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers favoring Cape Cod & Islands. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH, may be stronger near Cape Cod.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 23-27)

Rainfall threat for August 23 will depend on the track of Henri and an approaching low pressure disturbance and frontal system from the west. Additional showers mostly from the system from the west August 24. Generally drier and seasonably warm weather August 25-27.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 28 – SEPTEMBER 1)

High pressure is expected to dominate, with limited rain chances and fairly warm weather.

C-19 Chat Post – August 18 2021

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 17-21)

A warm front will approach and pass through our region today and tonight. The clouds will be abundant, shower activity with this front will not be, staying mostly west and north of the region. The front will introduce much higher humidity for the rest of this week, along with a better opportunity for shower activity. The peak of this shower activity appears to be set to occur later Thursday through early Friday, associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Fred. After that, the axis of most concentrated moisture should push offshore with a diminishing though not disappearing shower threat for the balance of Friday. A push of high pressure from eastern Canada may kill the shower chance by early Saturday to start the weekend.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Fog patches. Slight chance of a shower. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few showers possible mainly southwestern NH, central MA, and eastern CT. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers mainly CT/RI. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the morning. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Numerous showers and possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Best chance of showers during the morning, diminishing during the afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point upper 60s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Slight chance of a shower. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 22-26)

Light onshore flow but only a small shower chance with coolest air along the coast for August 22 to end the weekend. We also have to keep an eye out for TS Henri offshore. While most guidance has it staying offshore between New England and Bermuda, it will be close enough to create rough surf along the coast and may be close enough to push a band or two of showers into far southeastern New England at some point, most likely August 23. Front from the west may bring showers August 24 before a drying trend and high pressure moving in later in the period with seasonably warm air.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 27-31)

High pressure is expected to dominate, with limited rain chances and fairly warm weather to end August.

C-19 Chat Post – August 17 2021

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 16-20)

High pressure overhead now will shift offshore through Tuesday and a warm front will approach the region later Tuesday. During the next two days there will be some high and mid level clouds around, though limited to mostly this morning during today before becoming more widespread Tuesday. The warm front will cross the region Tuesday night and introduce higher humidity for Wednesday through Friday. In addition, a couple disturbances including the remains of what was once Tropical Storm Fred will be pushed into our region, increasing the chance of shower activity, though the chance will not be that great and will be mostly over interior areas Wednesday before peaking on Thursday and continuing into Friday before diminishing later Friday.

TODAY: Partly cloudy morning. Sunny afternoon. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point middle 50s. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH..

TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Variably cloudy overnight. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 57-64. Dew point upper 50s. Wind E to SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Fog patches. Slight chance of a shower. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few showers possible mainly southwestern NH, central MA, and eastern CT. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers mainly CT/RI. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm until late in the day. Highs 75-82. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 21-25)

There is a little uncertainty in the forecast for the August 21-22 weekend. Expecting the main plume of tropical moisture to have shifted offshore, reducing the chance of showers from that, but a weak upper low over the Great Lakes trying to move into New England with additional shower opportunities, while high pressure to the north may do its part to send somewhat drier air into the region. Putting this together, leaving a slight chance of showers in, favoring Saturday, warmest and highest humidity day being Saturday with slightly cooler and less humid air arriving Sunday. Fine-tuning is going to be needed for that forecast as we go along this week. Based on the anticipated weekend scenario and the guidance that shows it best, will go for dry weather August 23 then slightly higher humidity and a return to the chance of some shower activity August 24 with dry air again attempting to move back into the region for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 26-30)

The guidance trend says the East Coast has a little less to worry about regarding potential tropical systems, but always keeping an eye out there. High pressure should be the dominant player with mostly rain-free weather and near to above normal temperatures.

C-19 Chat Post – August 16 2021

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 15-19)

An area of high pressure will control our weather through Tuesday. Its center will determine our wind direction and humidity level, the latter of which will be rather low through 48 hours and only going up a little bit as the high shifts offshore Tuesday, so overall three very comfortable days ahead for mid August. When we get to the middle of the week, it will be time for the return of higher humidity, cloudiness, and eventually the threat of showers as tropical moisture begins to flow into the region from the south.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point near 60 South Coast early otherwise 50s. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind variable to N under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog lower elevations. Lows 57-64. Dew point upper 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind variable up to S 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 75-82. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 20-24)

Not a high confidence forecast at this time, but thinking that shower threat continues August 20 then diminishes for the August 21-22 weekend as the tropical moisture plume is pushed to the southeast by high pressure. May see an increase in shower chances again toward the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 25-29)

High pressure will try to control the weather with mostly dry conditions, but will have to continue to keep an eye on potential tropical activity or remnant tropical moisture to the south.

C-19 Chat Post – August 15 2021