C-19 Chat Post – March 11 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 10-14)

A display of March temperature variability today as inland sections warm and the coast is chilled by the development of a sea breeze. This is the result of high pressure overhead, light wind, a warming air mass and plenty of sun to work on heating the landmass, which results in rising of warmed air, which then has to be replaced by air from somewhere. The logical “choice” by the atmosphere: the air over the chilly Atlantic, more dense, sitting right at the surface and ready to move on inland to take the place of the departing (rising) warm air. That is your sea breeze – and we’ll see it today. Tomorrow though, it’ll be different, as we will be in a stronger southwesterly air flow due to a stronger pressure gradient (different between high pressure off to our south and low pressure passing to our north). But while this southwest wind warms most of us up, it will be much modified passing over Long Island Sound therefore will prevent the South Coast from warming too much. We also see a smaller scale version of this along our irregular eastern shoreline where pieces of land stick out in such a way that there is enough water to their southwest to cool them down as well. We’ll see this in places like Nahant MA, the south side of Cape Ann, and other localized places. But for the city of Boston, there will be a significant difference, perhaps as much as 20 degrees, between today’s and Thursday’s high temperatures. As has been the case for a couple of days, how warm it gets on Friday will depend on the timing of a cold front. Actually, it looks like 2 fronts are going to come through, one in the morning that may bring with it a few rain showers, and a stronger one in the evening, behind which a sharper turn to cold air lies. So between the two, we will still have a fairly mild day Friday, but most areas should fail to match their high temperatures of Thursday. Our weekend will see a downward temperature trend but with dry weather. On the way there though, we may see a period of strong and gusty winds Friday night into a portion of Saturday – not as strong as the wind event we recently saw, but may still be enough to take down some tree limbs and weakened trees and lead to a few power outages.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 45-52 coastal plain, 53-60 interior. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with developing sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 36-43 evening then rising slowly overnight. Wind variable up to 10 MPH evening, SW 5-15 MPH overnight.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68 except 53-60 South Coast and 45-52 islands and outer Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, gusts around 25 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 46-53. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with a possible rain shower early to mid morning. Partly to mostly sunny late morning on. Highs 59-66 except 51-58 South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 15-19)

Temperatures near to below normal, likely coldest early in this period. Watching for unsettled weather around March 16-17 otherwise mostly dry.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 20-24)

While the vernal equinox occurs on March 20 our position between cold air in Canada and warmer air in the US Southeast leaves us vulnerable to unsettled weather, which may include frozen precipitation, and temperatures near to below normal for this period heading into late month.

C-19 Chat Post – March 10 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 9-13)

A warm front passed by overnight with cloudiness and a few areas to the north seeing a few snow showers, and a weak cold front will cross the region later today but you’ll hardly notice it – we just have a nice day in store. The warm-up increases for the interior Wednesday but a weak wind gradient means that coastal areas will have a sea breeze and will be much cooler, but again another fair weather day. All areas get into southwesterly winds on Thursday which will be warmer for most, with the exception of coastal areas where a southwest wind has to travel over some ocean water first – those places, particularly the South Coast, will be coolest that day. Friday, a cold front slices across the region from north to south, maybe bringing a few rain showers, certainly a lot more clouds, and probably resulting in an “upside-down” temperature day, warmest the first half, cooling later, again highly dependent on the precise timing of the front. Saturday will be a “back-to-reality” day, with temperatures more typical for mid March but with dry weather as high pressure presses in from Canada.

TODAY: Early clouds then mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind NW up to 10 MPH then calm.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52 coastal plain, 53-63 well inland. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45 evening, may rise slightly overnight. Wind variable up to 10 MPH evening, SW 5-15 MPH overnight.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 61-68 except 53-60 South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 46-53. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 59-66 except 51-58 South Coast through midday, then falling temperatures by later in the day. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW then N from north to south midday on.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 42-49. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 14-18)

Dry, colder (30s) March 14 to end the weekend and early next week for the Ides on March 15. Watching for unsettled weather as low pressure approaches and moves through around March 16 and it may include some frozen precipitation. Drier and still on the chilly side for later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 19-23)

Near to below normal temperatures with additional unsettled weather possible as we’ll be near a boundary between a cold Canada and mild US Southeast.

C-19 Chat Post – March 9 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 8-12)

One week of March in the books, and the second week of the third month of 2021 will showcase some of the swings of weather, especially temperature, that the month is known for here in New England. But we’ll start out with a fairly tranquil and chilly day today under the influence of high pressure. As this high center slips to the south, first a warm front will cross the region from west to east tonight producing an increase in cloudiness. While a band of snow will be most prominent along this boundary across northern New England, some areas of snow are also possible here in southeastern New England as it passes by, but not enough to perhaps lightly coat the ground with snow in the pre-dawn hours. Tuesday, the front will be by, the sun will return, and any snow that dusted the ground would quickly vanish as we saw significantly milder air arrive. But that will be just a preview of what’s to come. First, a weak cold frontal boundary will slip into the region nearly unnoticed as it will be running out of forward motion later Tuesday and also have little or no cloud cover with it, and then the boundary will push back to the north again at night. As high pressure sits along the Middle Atlantic Coast and extends offshore, the region will be in a southwesterly air flow through midweek. Wednesday, this air flow may be weak enough so that midday and afternoon sea breeze form along the NH & MA eastern shores. This would hold temperatures back from reaching the levels they reach inland. The other except, both Wednesday & Thursday, will be that a southwesterly air flow comes off ocean water along the South Coast, which would be cooler as well. When we get to Friday, we’ll see cloudiness and a risk of rain showers as a cold front moves in from the north, but the temperature forecast for that day is critically dependent on the timing of this front. It’s a day-five forecast at this point but my early guess is that the frontal boundary will still be north of the WHW forecast area when the day starts, so it will be quite a mild day as well, but not until its end, because it will be a day when the temperature starts to drop significantly as the front pushes through. Obviously, there’s fine-tuning to be done for Friday’s forecast.

TODAY: Sunshine but some high clouds in the western sky later in the day. Highs 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds advance west to east. Snow showers possible overnight with scattered dustings and light coatings of snow. Lows 22-29. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Early clouds then mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind NW up to 10 MPH then calm.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65 except 50-57 South Coast and some East Coast areas. Wind SW up to 10 MPH but probable sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 61-68 except 53-60 South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 46-53. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 59-66 except 51-58 South Coast through midday, then falling temperatures by later in the day. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW then N from north to south midday on.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 13-17)

Dry, cooler to colder weekend (40s Saturday, 30s Sunday) as high pressure builds in from Canada. Watch the period later March 15 to early March 17 for unsettled weather which may include some wintry precipitation.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 18-22)

Near to below normal temperatures with additional unsettled weather possible as we’ll be near a boundary between a cold Canada and mild US Southeast.

C-19 Chat Post – March 8 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 7-11)

A large area of low pressure that has been sitting over the Canadian Maritime Provinces for the last few days delivering late winter cold to us will pull away today as an area of high pressure slides slowly eastward from the Great Lakes keeping us breezy and cold but bright for today. Monday, this high will sink a bit more to the southeast through the Ohio Valley and the cold air will ease up a bit more on us with more dry weather. A weak trough of low pressure will pass through the region early Tuesday with some cloudiness and a possible snow shower as it will still be cold, but a quick warm-up ensues after the passage of this trough with a good chance that much of the region breaks into the 50s during Tuesday. A little bubble of high pressure behind this trough will keep the winds light enough on Wednesday so while the warm-up continues inland, it may be temporarily delayed at the coast due to the development of a sea breeze. But Thursday, the main high center will be along and offshore of the Middle Atlantic Coast and the boundary of Canadian cold will still be to our north, and that will become the warmest day for most of the region, except once again temperature will be significantly modified and cooler where a southwest wind comes off ocean water along the South Coast and in the irregularly shaped land areas along the East Coast of MA that sit north and east of water (example, Nahant and parts of Cape Ann).

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear evening then clouds with a possible snow shower overnight. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Early clouds then mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65 except cooler South Coast and some East Coast areas. Wind SW up to 10 MPH but probable sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 61-68 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 12-16)

Our area at least starts out mild on March 12 but we’ll have to watch for the timing of a cold front from the north to see if we make it through the day in the mild air or turn drastically cooler, which will happen at some point before or by March 13. Both days have the potential for unsettled weather, the first with the front, the second with a possible wave of low pressure moving along the boundary after it’s gone by. High pressure should bring dry/chilly weather for March 14 before we have to watch for additional unsettled weather in the March 15-16 time frame.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 17-21)

Cold Canada, warm US Southeast, and we will be in between the two, in the battle zone, probably on the colder side of it. This results in a potential for wintry precipitation at some point during this period.

C-19 Chat Post – March 7 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 6-10)

The next 5 days will feature dry weather, but during this period we will undergo a shift in the weather pattern. The upper level low pressure area and its attendant core of arctic air which brought us a bitter blast earlier this week before moving away to allow a one-day warm-up on Wednesday did a loop back into eastern Canada as a larger low pressure system and has been sitting there for a couple days, pumping more cold and wind into the region. This system is going to pull away at a snail’s pace during this weekend, which will still be cold, but we will see an abatement of the wind with time. When we get to Monday with a westerly air flow, it will just be more of a “normal” March chill. Tuesday may end up a little warmer but it may be a modest warm-up initially as a little trough swings through and flips the wind back to the northwest for a while. Finally, Wednesday will be the day that high pressure has made its way to the Mid Atlantic Coast and extending offshore, and putting our region into a much milder southwesterly air flow – and you’ll feel it. But there is a caveat. Where that air travels over water first, the warm up will not be nearly as pronounced. Also, if the wind flow is not strong enough, even east-facing shores could see the development of a sea breeze on Wednesday afternoon which would keep them significantly cooler. We will see how that goes…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 53-60 except cooler South Coast and possibly turning cooler East Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, possible sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 11-15)

March 11 should be the mildest day of next week with a decent southwesterly air flow. Transition follows, but timing of arrival of cold air from north is questionable – sometime during March 12 as it stands now. This will determine how mild that day can get, but it will likely turn unsettled March 12-13 during this transition before high pressure moves in later in the period with dry but chilly weather. Not a high confidence forecast.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 16-20)

Cold Canada, warm US Southeast, and we will be in between the two, in the battle zone, probably on the colder side of it. This results in a potential for wintry precipitation at some point during this period.

C-19 Chat Post – March 6 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 5-9)

A large low pressure area in eastern Canada continues its influence on our weather today and through the weekend keeping it cold, dry, and breezy, with windiest weather today and a gradual abatement of wind during the weekend. We’ll also see a lot of cloudiness in the low’s circulation over our sky today, before sunshine become dominant for a good part of the weekend. When we get to early next week, a change takes place. The low in eastern Canada pulls away, and high pressure which had been to our west sinks to the south, taking up residence along the Mid Atlantic Coast. This will result in a notable temperature moderation here with continued dry weather.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 10-14)

High pressure over the Middle Atlantic States extending offshore as well will provide us with a short-lived but significant warm-up for a couple to a few days during the middle of next week. The wild card will be how soon does a cold front from Canada bring us back to reality? Sometime March 12 is my current estimate. After that we turn colder and have to eye the potential for some unsettled weather as well in the March 12-14 time frame.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 15-19)

A blocking pattern should keep us on the cooler to colder side once again, but being near a boundary between a cold Canada and northeastern US and much warmer air to the south increases the chances for unsettled weather, which may include additional opportunities for some frozen precipitation as we move through the final days of the astronomical winter season…

C-19 Chat Post – March 5 2021

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 4-8)

Hope your enjoyed your one-day reprieve from the cold because it’s coming back for the rest of this week, though not in as much force as previously, and definitely not with the same magnitude of wind, although it will be breezy over the next few days as low pressure does a long, slow loop across eastern Canada and high pressure sits off to the west. This pattern will also continue to protect the region from what could have been a storm threat from the south around the weekend. You will notice a change as early as the conclusion of the weekend, marking a pulling away of the low pressure area and the high center sinking off to the southeast, so by the time we get to the start of next week on Monday, it will feel much more pleasant again.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 16-23. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 9-13)

High pressure shifts to the Middle Atlantic and before any cold fronts can sneak down from Canada we warm to above normal for a couple of days to start this period, before that cold air does make a come-back (timing unknown). Should remain generally dry through the period, however.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 14-18)

A blocking pattern should keep us on the cooler to colder side once again, but being near a boundary between a cold Canada and northeastern US and much warmer air to the south increases the chances for unsettled weather, which may include additional opportunities for some frozen precipitation. Winter is not over yet…

C-19 Chat Post – March 4 2021