C-19 Chat Post – May 4 2020

8:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 3-7)
My college professors would probably call what is passing through this morning a “baroclinic zone” and not a front. Whatever it is, cloudiness and maybe a sprinkle accompany it, and behind it comes more plentiful sunshine and the warmest day in quite some time, again with a caveat of the typical cooler spots where a west wind does blow over water before crossing land again (outer Cape Cod for example). Enjoy today, because a transition back to cooler weather begins tomorrow, although our pattern these 5 days will be drier than recently. First, a wave of low pressure may briefly wet the South Coast early Monday before a cold front pushes northwest to southeast across the entire area during the day. High pressure will be in general control Tuesday and Wednesday before a weak low approaches during Thursday.
TODAY: Lots of clouds and a possible sprinkle of rain through mid morning then mostly sunny. Highs ranging from around 55 outer Cape Cod and Nantucket to 70-75 interior valleys. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clouding over. Risk of rain South Coast overnight. Lows 50-57. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain favoring the South Coast early. Slight risk of a rain shower anywhere else during the day. Highs 56-63,
coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH morning, N 10-20 MPH afternoon.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers late. Highs 60-67. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 8-12)
Risk of rain May 8 with a frontal boundary in the area. Much cooler, potentially near record setting cold, during the May 9-12 period. Uncertainly as to whether or not a storm system threatens around May 9 but the overall trend should be drier. Much fine-tuning to be done.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 13-17)
Cool and dry to start period. Milder trend follows, some unsettled weather returns.

C-19 Chat Post – May 3 2020

9:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 2-6)
The first weekend of May will be quite nice, and given that it’s coming in an overall pattern that is still cooler and wetter than average, we’re getting lucky. If you can safely enjoy some outside time, these next 2 days are the time to do it. You’ll have to endure a gusty breeze today, but the air will be quite mild in comparison to many recent days. The air aloft is still chilly enough so the sun’s heating of ground still a little wet from yesterday’s rainfall should combine to pop some cumulus clouds. On Sunday you’ll have to wait out some morning cloudiness and a passing rain shower threat, but if you’re looking for sunshine that will return by late morning or midday at the latest, lastly toward Cape Cod. But the reminder that we’re in the same general pattern comes the first few days of next week when we’ll watch a couple waves of low pressure. Interestingly, there is some significant model disagreement on how these features will track and interact with each other, but for now I am just going with the same general idea I had on yesterday’s update, and will make adjustments tomorrow if necessary. I think early Monday and later Tuesday to early Wednesday are the times when waves of low pressure will pass south of the region, all the while a larger circulation of low pressure being blocked from exiting North America via the Maritime Provinces of Canada will wobble its way east southeastward just north of New England and situate itself offshore. This means that regardless of any rainfall threat, the cooler weather will be returning after our mild weekend.
TODAY: Mostly sunny – some passing clouds. Highs 55-60 Cape Cod, 60-67 elsewhere. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts at times.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Risk of rain showers overnight. Lows 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy through mid morning including a risk of rain showers. Sun returning west to east late morning on. Highs 55-62 South Coast, 63-70 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Risk of rain favoring southern areas overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain favoring the South Coast early. Slight risk of a rain shower anywhere else during the day. Highs 56-63,
coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH morning, N 10-20 MPH afternoon.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of rain South Coast late. Highs 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain South Coast. Lows 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 55-62. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 7-11)
Temperatures below to much below normal. Greatest risk for unsettled weather middle of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 12-16)
Cool and dry to start period. Milder, risk of unsettled weather late period.

C-19 Chat Post – May 2 2020

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 1-5)
May is here! Happy May Day! Yes I know that here in southeastern New England the first of May is dawning overcast, foggy in some areas, and very rainy across the region, and that we also have “the same” weather pattern in place we’ve had in place for quite some time now. But one can look at this picture in a gloom and doom way or can find many positives. Let’s take the positive route. “The same” pattern does not mean that every day is cloudy, cold, wet, etc. … It means that the overall pattern is wetter and cooler than the long term average. We certainly saw that as there were frequent cloudy and many wet days. Boston set a record for its lowest high temperature for the month, 62, breaking the old one by 4 degrees. And while Boston’s rainfall was not substantially above normal for April, some other southeastern New England locations saw a greater positive departure. However, the bright side is that the region as a whole had been running a 2 to 4 inch precipitation deficit for the first 3 months of 2020, and now we have made some of that up, while providing favorable moisture for agriculture without causing any flooding. A couple other bright notes: Our sun angle is now as high as it is in early August, so even when it’s not sunny, the higher angle and length of day makes up for some of that. It may not seem that way first thing this morning, but overall the difference is notable and noticeable. Also, we are just over 2 weeks away from the first sunset of 8:00 p.m. or later (May 16). There is even something to look forward to in the shorter term, i.e., this 5-day period, because after we get rid of this ribbon of rain this morning, it tapers to showers and while today won’t turn out to be a great weather day, even though clouds may break for sun in some areas before the day is over and the chance for additional showers will be there, we are seeing things move along rather briskly in the atmosphere and this has resulted in an improved forecast for Saturday over what I was advertising the last couple days. And while the faster movement of things means that Sunday is now actually the “worst” of the 2 weekend days, it will not be all that bad either, with just some cloudiness and perhaps a passing shower as a front moves through, but this will be a weak system and the overall day will be dominated by dry weather and very mild air (with the exception of the normal cooler spots depending on wind direction and coastal set-up). When we get to Monday and Tuesday, the front that goes by Sunday will be sitting just to the south and may carry some impulses of low pressure along it, so we may have to watch for that, with current thoughts on timing of best chance of cloudiness and any rain threat being earlier Monday and later Tuesday, but even going out beyond day 3 trying to time this type of a pattern is rather difficult, so the forecast for these 2 days can change in any direction between now and then.
TODAY: Overcast morning with areas of fog, widespread showers, some heavy, tapering off from southwest to northeast mid to late morning. Mostly cloudy with breaks of sun possible this afternoon but also scattered showers and a slight risk of a thunderstorm mid to late afternoon. Highs 50-55 South Coast, 55-60 elsewhere, occurring late-day. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH interior, 15-25 MPH coast, a few higher gusts likely, shifting to SW 10-20 MPH with a few higher gusts possible this afternoon.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of evening showers and a slight risk of thunder eastern areas early. Lows 46-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-60 Cape Cod, 60-67 elsewhere. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts at times.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Risk of rain showers overnight. Lows 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of rain showers early. Highs 55-62 South Coast, 63-70 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Risk of rain favoring southern areas overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain favoring southern areas morning. Highs 56-63, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of rain South Coast late. Highs 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 6-10)
Cooler, dry May 6-8. Milder, risk of unsettled weather May 9-10.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 11-15)
Cooler, dry to start period. Milder, risk of unsettled weather late period.

C-19 Chat Post – May 1 2020

7:06AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 30-MAY 4)
On this final day of April we look at an overcast day, wet at times, but not a wash-out, as a warm front approaches the region, and look into the start of May which presents a continuation of the current unsettled and cool weather pattern. That front will never make it through the region, but a cold front approaching from the west, becoming an occluded front as it arrives while the warm front is still south of the region, will bring a band of widespread and possibly heavy showers (and potential embedded thunder) during Friday. I’ve had to tweak around the timing on that ribbon of rainfall, as first it looked earlier, then later, and now earlier, so basically morning-midday are the target hours for the heaviest, from west to east, and during the remainder of Friday we should settle into a pattern of more scattered showers. But even after the surface features moves offshore, its parent low will be decaying into a trough that will then have to sink southeastward, the tail of which has to come across New England while upper level low pressure traverses the region on Saturday. So while I don’t expect Saturday to be a rainy day, I do expect scattered showers to be a potential while lots of clouds are present. Improvement is still slated for Sunday, probably not a totally sunny day either but better than Saturday in both sun potential and warmth. Sunday night we’ll already be back into cloudiness from a cold front approaching from the west and that will pass through later at night with a shower threat. The question is whether or not a quick wave of low pressure comes along to enhance rainfall for a portion of Monday. Some guidance says yes, other guidance says no. For the time being, I’m splitting the difference with a wet morning and drier afternoon. But that’s day 5 so there is plenty of time to re-evaluate and tweak it.
TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain mostly morning and midday. Highs 47-54. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers arriving overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 42-49. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Cloudy with numerous showers and possible thunderstorms morning. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind in the morning SE-S 10-20 MPH gusting 25-35 MPH interior, 35-45 MPH coastal areas with spot gusts of 50-55 MPH possible South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind in the afternoon shifting to W and decreasing to 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Any lingering showers ending. Lows 42-49. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers redeveloping. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Lows 41-48. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs ranging from near 50 Nantucket and outer Cape Cod to 65-70 interior Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 48-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain morning. Variably cloudy with a chance of showers afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 5-9)
The overall outlook for this 5-day period is for below normal temperatures and a couple opportunities for wet weather.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 10-14)
A pattern of below normal temperatures is expected to continue but with a drying trend.

C-19 Chat Post – April 30 2020

7:36AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 29-MAY 3)
Mobile update this morning. Net outage at WHW home base. Again no big changes. A nice day today before we get impacted by the next storm – a low that tracks northwest of the region and drags a warm front toward but not through the region Thursday, bringing clouds and the threat of a bit of rain. As the low pressure center moves into the St. Lawrence Valley on Friday and drags an occluded front through, we will see the bulk of our rainfall in the form of numerous to widespread showers and possible embedded thunderstorms. This system will also bring a good deal of wind with it. due to some blocking in the atmosphere the low pressure system will not be able to make a clean getaway and exit via the maritime provinces of Canada, So it will be forced southeastward as a decaying surface low pressure system underneath an upper level low pressure system on Saturday, and that spells out another unsettled day, not likely a washout but probably not a lot of sun and definitely a good opportunity for showers. That leaves Sunday as the pick of the weekend, with dry and warmer weather as we get more of a westerly wind combined with mostly clear sky. As is always the case in the spring, there will be exceptions, and on Sunday the limited places where a west wind finds its way over water before hitting land again will be cooler.
TODAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 50-57, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind light SE.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Risk of light rain at times. Highs 47-54. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows 40-47. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts especially South Coast.
FRIDAY: Cloudy with numerous showers and possible thunderstorms morning. Highs 48-55. Wind SE-S 10-20 MPH gusting over 30 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Any lingering showers ending. Lows 42-49. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely.
Highs 48-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs ranging from near 50 Nantucket and outer Cape Cod to 65-70 interior Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 4-8)
The overall outlook for this 5-day period is for below normal temperatures and a couple opportunities for wet weather.
Milder May 3, but a rain shower risk late-day or evening. Cooler May 4-6 and milder May 7 but some additional unsettled weather possible.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 9-13)
A pattern of below normal temperatures is expected to continue for this period as well, though it may trend drier.

C-19 Chat Post – April 29 2020

7:44AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 28-MAY 2)
Short forecast due to a computer issue earlier, which has been resolved. No big changes anyway. Slow improvement today as dry air works in behind the most recent storm, and a nice day squeezed in Wednesday before we get impacted by the next storm – a low that tracks northwest of the region and drags a warm front toward but possibly not completely through the region Thursday, bringing additional rain. Whether it passes as a cold front into the warm sector or an occluded front because the warm front never went by, that occurs on Friday, with numerous rain showers. This system will also bring a good deal of wind with it. We improve only slightly Saturday, because upper level low pressure will still be in the region and that means a pool of cold air aloft and unstable air. That likely leads to additional showers, and the air will be cold enough aloft that some of those showers may contain hailstones.
TODAY: Clouds dominate, may break for partial sun at times. Highs 48-55, coolest coast. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind light SE.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Risk of rain. Highs 47-54. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows 40-47. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, may shift to S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Cloudy with numerous showers and possible thunderstorms morning. Mostly cloudy with periods of rain showers afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind SE-S 10-20 MPH gusting over 30 MPH, shifting to W.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of a rain shower and isolated hail. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 3-7)
Milder May 3, but a rain shower risk late-day or evening. Cooler May 4-6 and milder May 7 but some additional unsettled weather possible.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 8-12)
A pattern of below normal temperatures and unsettled weather is expected to continue for this period as well.

C-19 Chat Post – April 28 2020

7:37AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 27-MAY 1)
This 5-day period has an easy pick for nicest, and that will be Wednesday. On either side of that day, we’ll be impacted by low pressure systems bringing unsettled weather. First, the one that arrived yesterday lingers through today with wet weather, and some hilltop snowfall which by tonight may make its way into northwestern and western suburban Boston enough to slush up non paved surfaces before daylight arrives to eliminate that, but the low will still hang around long enough to start Tuesday off on the wet side with rain/snow showers before it gradually dries out, but it may take all day for clouds to finally break as drier air finally starts to arrive from the north and west and the low pulls away to sea. Brief nice weather Wednesday as a sliver of high pressure moves in. But low pressure cranks up and heads through the Great Lakes and into eastern Canada Thursday when the next batch of wet weather arrives here. The parent low’s track means this system will be a warmer one, warmer being a relative term. Rainfall from that system will likely be plentiful, but it is still needed as we continue to run a precipitation deficit for the year so far, despite a wet April. By Friday, we’re back into cooler air and upper level low pressure will continue to bring the chance of showers to start off May.
TODAY: Overcast. Periods of rain, may mix with snow higher elevations of interior locations. Highs 38-45. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain, mixing with and changing to snow at times north and west of Boston with minor slushy accumulation possible on non-paved surfaces. Lows 33-40. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Cloudy start with additional rain/snow showers tapering to drizzle. Breaking clouds later with a bit of sun possible by late day.
Highs 48-55, coolest coast. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 40-47. Wind light SE.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Numerous rain showers, possibly heavy at times. Highs 48-55. Wind S 10-20 MPH, stronger gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Numerous rain showers evening becoming scattered overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind SW-W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Occasional rain showers. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 2-6)
May 2-3 weekend looks milder to warmer and mainly dry, though a quick pop up rain shower is possible May 2 and some late-day or nighttime rain showers are possible with the approach of a cold front on May 3. Cooling trend with additional unsettled weather May 4-6 as the same general overall pattern is re-established.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 7-11)
A pattern of below normal temperatures and unsettled weather is expected to continue for this period as well.

C-19 Chat Post – April 27 2020