6:52AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 24-28)
10 days ago I noticed my first sign that we may be influenced by a broad Pacific storm system that would likely be a mainly rain-producer. Given the theme of the winter overall, despite some atmospheric indices being favorable for snow events, it is not a surprise that this initial thought turned out to be correct. It is that storm system that impacts us today with our rainfall, but not really all that much rain in comparison to some of the systems we have endured since last autumn, with many areas coming in at under 1/2 inch of rain for this event. Of more note are the winds that are coming as this system departs, and will keep themselves up throughout Monday and even into Tuesday to some degree. The wind will be caused by the fairly tight pressure gradient between the departing low, which will be quite deep, and a fairly strong high pressure area to its and our southwest. We’ll be in the middle or “in the wind zone”. We’ll have to watch for weakened tree limbs and in some cases entire trees that are vulnerable to such events. Scattered power outages are possible. Along with the drier weather and wind will come colder air as well, although this is not going to be arctic cold, just fairly typical late winter cold. When we get to midweek, or the final 2 days of February, we’ll watch a weak system driving out of Canada. This clipper-type system may bring a period of snow/mix to the region in the late Wednesday to Thursday time period.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy with rain likely, except freezing rain until mid morning central MA and interior southern NH, tapering to rain showers later. Highs 40-47. Wind light N to NE over interior areas early, SE 5-15 MPH elsewhere, then SE to S increasing to 15-25 MPH all areas midday shifting to W during the afternoon from west to east.
TONIGHT: Breaking clouds. Lows 28-35. Wind W 15-30 MPH, gusts 35-50 MPH.
MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind W 20-35 MPH, gusts 45-60 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind W 15-30 MPH, gusts 40-55 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 10-25 MPH, gusts 30-45 MPH, gradually diminishing.
WEDNESDAY: Clouding up. Nighttime snow/mix possible. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow/mix possible mainly morning. Temperatures steady in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 1-5)
Been keeping an eye on the early days of March for both potential visits from cold air from Canada and possible storminess. Nothing has changed, but timing is still very uncertain on how things evolve. March 1 enters the 5-day forecast period tomorrow and will detail it then, and try to fine-tune the other days as much as possible.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 6-10)
We remain vulnerable to both cold and possible storminess during this period, but far too soon to see anything in detail. Storm track may remain split with bigger events being suppressed to the south.

8:40AM

COMMENTARY
The challenge it has been to forecast medium and longer range stuff the last several months has been more fun than frustrating to me. It’s an approach I must take to this science otherwise it would drive me nuts. And now I wonder if that cold/dry regime I have been expecting which the “negative PNA” and “elusive MJO” have been making me look like a fool waiting for my finally be coming … in March. But then again, maybe it’s just another dangling carrot. Oh well, one step at a time, starting with the next 5 days first. Read on…

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 23-27)
High pressure retreats today, which will still be a nice day. Low pressure cranks up and tracks through the Great Lakes Sunday, bringing what will be mainly a rain event to the region, however it may start as snow/sleet briefly in the pre-dawn hours as just enough cold hangs on initially. Another thing to watch for will be pockets of freezing rain in central MA and southwestern NH especially in elevated valleys where cold air will hang on the longest before being scoured out. The now well-advertised windy Monday will indeed be occurring as what will be a monster-sized low pressure circulation slowly moves through eastern Canada Monday into Tuesday. The strongest winds will be Monday, but they will still be gusty through Tuesday. And then it’s “wildcard Wednesday” as the next low pressure area moves into the region. Model forecasts, as expected, have been all over the place with this during the course of the last several days, and as it gets closer and now in the 5-day range it looks like an unimpressive but possibly frozen event. Still some details to work out on this over the next couple days, so will leave forecast wording vague for now.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Rain arrives pre-dawn, may start as snow/sleet in some areas especially interior MA and southern NH. Lows 30-37 early. Wind light SE.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with rain likely, tapering to rain showers later. Pockets of freezing rain possibly early in elevated valleys of central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 40-47. Wind SE 15-25 MPH and gusty, shifting to W at the end of the day.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Lows 28-35. Wind W 15-30 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind W 15-30 MPH, gusts 40-55 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Breezy. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.
WEDNESDAY: Clouding up. PM snow/mix possible. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 28-MARCH 4)
Midweek system departs early February 28 as snow/mix/rain (uncertain at this point on precipitation type). Will watch the first 4 days of March for at least one more storm threat but to be honest I am not even close to confident about timing and details so will leave it at that for today and attempt a little more tuning tomorrow.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 5-9)
We remain vulnerable to both cold and possible storminess during this period, but far too soon to see anything in detail. Storm track may remain split with bigger events being suppressed to the south.

7:17AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 22-26)
High pressure moves in today and hangs on Saturday with 2 fairly nice late winter days. Low pressure tracks into the Great Lakes Sunday spreading a large precipitation shield into the region, just about all of it in the form of rain, though there may be some snow/sleet at the start later Saturday night, especially over interior areas. This storm will be very large and fairly powerful as it exits via eastern Canada Monday, and the pressure gradient between it and high pressure approaching from the west will get the winds roaring in the region during Monday, but with dry weather. That low will be so broad in scope that its influence will still be with us through Tuesday with more cold and a gusty breeze.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing late.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast. Rain arrives, may start as snow/sleet in some areas especially interior MA and southern NH. Lows 30-37 early, then rising slowly overnight. Wind light SE.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with rain likely, tapering to rain showers later. Highs 40-47. Wind SE 15-25 MPH and gusty, shifting to W at the end of the day.
MONDAY: Sun/clouds. Windy. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Breezy. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 27-MARCH 3)
This will be a colder than average period and we’ll also be vulnerable for potential unsettled weather. Trend for the first potential is for a minor system with snow showers around February 27. Pattern will be “loaded for Lion” for the entry of the month of March, but not sure yet if the lion will just growl (a couple systems that never get together and leave us in between) or launch an all-out attack (systems combine into a larger storm to impact the region).

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 4-8)
We remain vulnerable to both cold and storminess during this period, but far too soon to see anything in detail.

7:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 21-25)
The latest storm system has behaved generally as expected, after being a little slow to get underway as there was a lot of dry air to overcome. But now the warm air has come in aloft with the cold hanging on at the surface, causing snow to turn to sleet and freezing rain. But the steady precipitation is gone and leaving in its wake just patchy drizzle and freezing drizzle, an overcast and areas of fog. But during the course of the day today, low pressure will get northeast of the region and a drying westerly wind will take over, clearing it out and warming it up somewhat. This is not the entrance of a warm air mass, just air warmer than the cold trapped at the ground now. It’ll end up seasonably chilly tonight and Friday as high pressure moves in. This high will retreat Saturday and open the door for the next storm system, a familiar Great Lakes Cutter, on Sunday, which may start as snow/mix briefly Saturday night in some areas with lingering cold, but will end up rain for all as milder air wins out at all levels. Behind this system, drier and colder air will return but the wind may be the bigger story for Monday as the storm will be quite large in eastern Canada as it departs and we’ll have a strong gradient against approaching high pressure from the west.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog and patchy drizzle and freezing drizzle to start, then clearing. Highs 45-52 occurring late in the day. Wind light variable early, then W increasing to 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing late.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Chance of rain by late night, may start as snow some areas. Highs 37-44. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with rain likely, tapering to rain showers later. Temperatures steady in the 40s daytime, falling to the 30s evening.
MONDAY: Sun/clouds. Windy. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 26-MARCH 2)
Dry and cold February 26. Will watch the period February 27-March 2 for the potential of 2 storm systems impacting the region. Too early for details but the first is likely to be minor and include rain and/or snow showers. The second has the potential to be a more significant system with rain/ice/snow possible.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 3-7)
Similar pattern, will watch for one or 2 possible storm threats. Also have to watch some very cold air to the north for a possible southward push.

7:12AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 20-24)
This 5-day period will feature the passage of 2 storm systems, the first of which being in a cold enough environment so about half the precipitation, on average, could fall in the frozen or freezing form, starting as snow, going over to sleet and freezing rain, and ending as rain, but for some interior locations that change to plain rain may be hard to complete due to colder air locked in at the surface. This particular storm system will feature a somewhat weaker primary low and slightly more pronounced secondary low tracking near or just south of SNE allowing colder air to stay a little more locked in, but this is still going to be a fairly benign system overall with no major impact from either snow accumulation or icing, beyond the usual slick travel on untreated surfaces. We may see a little more of an issue due to high tides along the coast even with a modest onshore wind during the first half of the storm on east-facing shores, and in Cape Cod Bay Thursday as winds will have turned to westerly, due to the astronomical high tides with the moon just passed full and at perigee. Beyond this, a dry day for Friday as high pressure moves in and dry weather through most of Saturday as high pressure starts to retreat. Next storm system tracks west of New England and results in milder air being more easily able to move in, so it may start as a mix late Saturday night then turn into a rain event for the bulk of Sunday. Drier air may start to work in toward the end of the day on Sunday if the storm system is moving along quickly enough.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Snow arriving southwest to northeast, accumulating up to 1 inch south of I-90 and 1-2 inches to the north before changing to sleet and freezing rain. Lows 23-30. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Overcast morning with freezing rain and rain ending. Icy untreated surfaces. Areas of fog. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind E to N 5-15 MPH early, NW 10-20 MPH later.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Icy untreated surfaces. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Mix to rain late at night. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
SUNDAY: Overcast with rain likely, ending late. Temperatures rise into the 40s through the day and fall back to the 30s at night.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 25-MARCH 1)
Colder/dry early next week with windy conditions February 25 and more tranquil February 26. Watching the period February 27-28 for possible unsettled weather (rain/mix/snow) but no solid indications of a major storm. Fair weather follows for the end of this period which is also the beginning of March.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 2-6)
Will watch the March 2-3 period of a potential storm threat. Another may threaten late in the period. Temperatures near to below normal.

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 19-23)
High pressure brings cold and dry weather today between yesterday’s unsettled weather and the next bout of precipitation, which will be arriving Wednesday evening in the form of snow as low pressure moves into the Great Lakes, but this time the primary storm being weaker, a slightly stronger secondary development, and a little colder air will result in a little longer frozen precipitation episode, and while we still warm aloft enough to end the snow-making up there, the surface will stay cold enough for a little more sleet and freezing rain before it finally warms enough at least southern and eastern areas to end as rain Thursday. Thankfully, however, this will not be a prolific precipitation producer or we’d be talking about higher snow totals and more serious icing than we will be seeing. Once this system departs later Thursday, dry weather is back for the end of the week and the start of the weekend, although by Saturday night we may be seeing impacts from the next system, and that may also start as snow.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 8-15. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow arriving southwest to northeast, accumulating up to 1 inch south of I-90 and over inch to the north before changing to sleet and freezing rain. Lows 23-30. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Overcast morning with freezing rain and rain ending. Icy untreated surfaces. Areas of fog. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind E to N 5-15 MPH early, NW 10-20 MPH later.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow at night. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 24-28)
Leaning toward a milder solution with snow/mix to rain for February 24 system but have to watch it because this system may end up further southeast and colder. Clearing, windy, colder February 25. Tranquil but cold February 26. Next storm system threatens later February 27 or 28 with some precipitation but does not look major at this point.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 1-5)
Early indications are that March may enter like the proverbial lion with some drastic temperature changes and at least one storm threat. Plenty of time to figure out details.

2:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 18-22)
Storm #1 departs today but takes a little longer than I previously thought as an elongated trough that was once the primary low makes its way southeastward across the region. So, snow is largely done accumulating by dawn but there will still be some snow showers to go through. After a nice delivery of cold air tonight and a dry, chilly Tuesday courtesy high pressure, storm #2 will head this way and bring the chance of snow by Wednesday night which will likely change to a mix then rain during the course of Thursday morning before ending. This will not be a major storm. By the end of the week, it’s back to dry weather again.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Steadiest snow tapering off early with 1 to 4 inches accumulation then snow showers with little additional accumulation. Some sleet and rain mixing in along the South Coast. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with a risk of a snow shower. Clearing overnight. Lows 8-15. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 8-15. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Highs 28-35. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Overcast with mix to rain and areas of fog morning. Partial clearing afternoon. Temperatures rise to the 40s.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 23-27)
Dry start to the weekend February 23 then a storm of mix to rain expected February 24. Dry and colder weather expected February 25-26 then the next storm system may impact the region with rain or snow by February 27. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 28-MARCH 4)
Mild and unsettled start to the period as February ends. Much colder but dry weather is possible to start off the month of March.

7:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 17-21)
Still looking at impact from 2 low pressure systems during this 5-day period, the first a moisture-starved, fast-moving system with enough cold air in place for snow but not enough moisture for very much snow, with the most likely place for a few inches toward the South Coast. This will take place from late tonight into Monday. The second system will have a little more moisture to work with and will have enough cold air around to start as snow, but may not keep enough cold air around to stay snow, taking place late Wednesday into Thursday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Light snow arriving west to east late evening and overnight. Lows 22-29. Wind light variable.
MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Cloudy start with light snow ending west to east by midday after accumulating a coating to 1 inch except 1-3 inches along the South Coast. Breaking clouds, partial sun, and a few lingering snow showers in the afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow late. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.
THURSDAY: Cloudy with snow/mix/rain, followed by breaking clouds. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 22-26)
Dry weather at the start and end of this period. A storm threat mid period (about February 24) at this point looks like a mix to rain event. Temperatures averaging near to slightly above normal overall.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 27-MARCH 3)
Will watch for unsettled weather threats about February 28 and March 2 or 3 in a somewhat active but not overly wet pattern as weather systems continue to move rapidly along. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

9:09AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 16-20)
2 threats of unsettled weather exist during this 5-day period, as the first of what would be 3 remains far to the south to start the weekend. The first actual impact threat to SNE, a small area of low pressure, passes south of the region Sunday night and early Monday but with the bulk of the moisture staying just to the south and a lot of dry air in place, and factoring in guidance over-forecasting precipitation, will go for very light snowfall amounts. A break behind it before a slightly larger and slightly more moisture-laden system approaches by later Wednesday and with enough cold air in place to begin as snow.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 17-24. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Light snow arriving. Lows 22-29. Wind light variable.
MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Cloudy start with light snow ending west to east by midday after accumulating a coating to 1 inch along the South Coast except up to 2 inches on Nantucket and a dusting to a coating everywhere else. Clearing afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow late. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 21-25)
Snow/mix/rain likely February 21 as a storm passes near or just south of the region (track and precipitation type still somewhat uncertain). Next storm threat about February 24 may drag milder air in with it and be a mix to rain set-up but still quite far out there and low confidence. Dry weather between systems and to end the period as well. Temperatures averaging near to slightly above normal overall.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 26-MARCH 2)
Next storm threat in a stubborn pattern would be right around February 28 with another possibly to follow around the end of the period.

7:15AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 15-19)
A warm front / cold front combo comes through the region today (this morning and evening, respectively) as their parent low travels across southern Canada. This system will bring some scattered rain with its warm front, a few isolated rain showers in its warm sector, which will also be filled with a fair amount of wind, and a broken band of showers, which may be weakening as it moves east, along its cold front. Behind this comes colder air for the weekend and during this time a wave of low pressure will miss our area to the south. Still watching a second area of low pressure which gets closer later Sunday to early Monday but still to me looks like it will be far enough for a miss. It would also be fighting some drier air in place even if it was closer, so a “hit” would likely be very minor anyway. Will keep watching. High pressure brings dry weather to end this period.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered light rain morning. Isolated rain showers afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind SE to S 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A rain shower possible early. Lows 28-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind light W.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs in the 33-40. Wind light variable.
MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 20-24)
Possible snow/mix late February 20 to early February 21 depending on the track of a storm passing near or south of the region. Another low pressure system may impact the region with a risk of rain/mix/snow later in the period. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 25-MARCH 1)
A system may bring a rain/snow risk around February 27-28 otherwise generally dry weather overall with temperatures near to slightly below normal.

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 14-18)
As you step outside this morning, beware of some icy patches, which in some areas may be covered by a fresh coating to 1 inch of snow due to some snow squalls last evening, which were certainly a little more potent than I expected them to be as they came across the region. But these slick spots will largely vanish today as we have at least some sunshine and temperatures head to several degrees above freezing, courtesy high pressure which will be in control. Our next foul weather system is not going to be much of a big deal, but will be as low pressure travels across southern Canada, bringing it’s warm front / cold front combo across our area during the course of Friday. This sets up a colder weekend, extended to 3 days for many as Monday is Presidents Day. During the course of this weekend we will see 2 low pressure areas pass south of the region. The first should be a clean miss during Saturday. The second may be close enough for at least the threat of a period of light snow around early Monday, but no guarantee at this point.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Brief mix possible favoring areas north and west of Boston morning. Rain showers possible west to east late-day. Highs 45-52. Wind light SE early, then SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A rain shower possible early. Lows 28-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY): Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 19-23)
Dry February 19. Another passing wave of low pressure to the south may be close enough to bring a snow/mix threat February 20 followed by clearing February 21. Right now leaning to dry weather for the remainder of the period with temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 24-28)
Our short month of February comes down its home stretch with a pattern that this far in advance looks dry and seasonably chilly with a subtropical jet stream suppressed to the south and a fairly dry polar jet stream nearby.

6:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 13-17)
We made it through that event, with Boston basically doubling its seasonal snowfall, not that it was difficult to do. Snow/sleet totals generally verified as expected. What’s nice about post-storm this time, unlike the January messy event, is no flash freeze & arctic air. It’ll be on the mild side today as low pressure pulls away, the day starting damp then drying out overall, although a few rain/snow showers may occur in the hills northwest of Boston in the afternoon and isolated snow showers in similar areas in the evening. High pressure brings dry weather for Valentine’s Day Thursday. Low pressure will track between the Great Lakes and Hudson Bay in Canada on Friday, dragging its warm front through our area early in the day, followed by its cold front late in the day. A brief mix is possible with the warm front, and rain showers with the cold front. The weekend looks a little colder and we should see a wave of low pressure miss the region to the south early in the weekend. Another one, depending on speed, may approach the region by later in the weekend but the current leaning is for this to also aim south of the region. Will watch it, in case.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy with areas of drizzle and a few rain showers early, then partly sunny with a passing rain/snow shower possible north central MA and southern NH afternoon. Highs 39-46. Wind light N to NW early, then W 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. A passing snow shower possible north central MA and southwestern NH. Lows 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Brief mix possible favoring areas north and west of Boston morning. Rain showers possible west to east late-day. Highs 45-52. Wind light SE early, then SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 18-22)
Will have to watch 2 waves of low pressure, one February 18, the other February 20. They both can end up passing south of the region but also have some risk of impacting the region. Early feeling is a miss on the first, and an impact from the second one. But the fact that available guidance has been abysmal beyond a few days on a routine basis doesn’t really change that much, and this forecast is based again on a feel for the overall pattern, but is still not a high confidence forecast by any stretch. Some of the more reliable large scale pattern guidance indicates a pattern that would not be too favorable for either of these to impact the region so can’t discount this possibility too.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 23-27)
May have to watch yet another threat around the February 23-24 weekend. Quiet weather follows this potential threat.

7:09AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 12-16)
It’s *gasp* “storm arrival day”! Ok this type of phrase may be more appropriate for the arrival of a biggie, like one of the 2015 storms, or like the Blizzard of 2013. But the way this winter’s going, some of us are thinking it for snow flurries. Well, not just flurries today, there is snow on the way, but not a biggie, and not a system that’s going to stay snow everywhere, probably even the hills of southwestern NH where I thought yesterday it may be possible. Too much warm air aloft, the wild card in snowfall amounts as well. Still going to go with a quicker timing on its arrival and a changing of the snow to sleet, before rain (and pockets of icing interior mainly northwest) work in. Largely, the forecast for this system hasn’t changed, so you won’t see much change below in the details. Nor has the outlook beyond it for now, though some of the uncertainties of beyond a few days remain and I will attempt to iron those out as we go along. So we have the messy storm today / tonight, no flash freeze in fact kind of mild tomorrow, a seasonable chill for Valentine’s Day, and if there is any adjustment to be made to the late week system it’s to possibly shorten its duration a little bit. What yesterday looked like a mild and wet Saturday (at the start of my DAYS 6-10 section) looks like it may be fairly dry and slightly milder than normal, as the Friday system wants to be parented by one low going across southern Canada and additional development may be limited and stay well to the south after the front passes. Will keep watching this as it already changed several times on guidance in the last few days.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Thickening overcast. Snow arrives southwest to northeast afternoon. Highs 28-35. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow changing to sleet from south to north early then to rain from southeast to northwest later but likely some freezing rain north central MA and southwestern NH. Snow accumulation before changeover from a coating to 2 inches South Coast up to a Plymouth MA to Providence RI line, 2-4 inches elsewhere except 4-6 inches higher elevations north central MA into interior southern NH and some greater than 6-inch amounts possible higher elevations southwestern NH. Temperatures steady 28-35 early, then rising to 30-35 north and west and 36-41 south and east. Wind E 5-15 MPH except 10-20 MPH coast.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy start with areas of fog and drizzle, then becoming partly cloudy and drying out. Highs 40-47. Wind light variable early then W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers by late-day. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy south and east. Partly sunny north and west. Lows from the lower to middle 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 17-21)
Breezy cool and dry as additional storminess should stay to the south through February 18. Will have to watch the period from late February 19 to early February 21 for what may be one of the better shots at widespread snow of the season, although very early on this does not look like a powerful system, but something possibly to watch.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 22-26)
Leaning seasonably chilly and dry for much of the period at this time.

7:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 11-15)
The week starts of quiet and chilly as a disturbance passes south of the region and high pressure builds to the north. But this quickly changes as a broad storm system arrives Tuesday and departs Wednesday, but what about the details between arrival and departure? You didn’t think I was going to leave those out, did you? I continue to feel confident about a dominant primary low tracking through the Great Lakes and a slowly-developing secondary low over the inland Mid Atlantic that then tracks up over southern New England. It will be cold enough for this system to start as snow throughout the region, but the set-up allows rapid warming aloft from south to north, and a slower warming at the surface from southeast to northwest. What this translates into is the snow, which should be underway by early afternoon in southern and western portions of the forecast area and northeastern areas by mid afternoon, will then transition to sleet from south to north during the early evening, then from sleet to rain from southeast to northwest during mid to late evening. Exceptions will be the higher elevations of southwestern NH which may never completely change, and also the hills of Worcester County MA which may see some icing during the rain as surface temperatures may remain below freezing there. By Wednesday morning as the secondary low is passing overhead, all areas should be above freezing with lingering drizzle, fog, and rain showers. This is when the temperatures should be at their mildest, and will hold steady then eventually fall during the day as the low moves away and an increasing westerly wind moves in, transporting drier and colder air into the region. This will set up a dry and seasonably cold Valentines Day for Thursday. But things are on the move and by Friday the next system will be approaching. There are some questions as to how this system will play out, but my feeling at this time is that it is going to be a system that heads toward the Great Lakes late Friday, allowing milder air in and resulting in a rain risk by later Friday. Will keep an eye on the evolution of this threat during the week ahead and watch for any changes.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind NE under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow arrives southwest to northeast afternoon. Highs 28-35. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow changing to sleet from south to north early then to rain from southeast to northwest later, but remaining as mainly snow southwestern NH and possibly some freezing rain north central MA. Snow accumulation before changeover from a coating to 2 inches South Coast up to a Plymouth MA to Providence RI line, 2-4 inches elsewhere except 4-6 inches higher elevations north central MA into interior southern NH and 6-8 inches southwestern NH. Temperatures steady 28-35 early, then rising to 30-35 north and west and 36-41 south and east. Wind E 5-15 MPH except 10-20 MPH coast.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy start with areas of fog and drizzle, then becoming partly cloudy and drying out. Highs 40-47. Wind light variable early then W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers by late-day. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 16-20)
A storm system will impact the region at the beginning of the Presidents Day Weekend, currently leaning toward a milder rain scenario. This will be followed by 2 blustery, colder, dry days February 17-18. The next system would threaten around February 19 into February 20 but not sure if this gets in here or passes to the south of the region. A couple factors need to be watched to determine hit/miss and if hit snow/rain.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 21-25)
Trend at the moment is dry and seasonably chilly but no guarantee with how things have looked in medium range versus turned out in reality.

2:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 10-14)
It’s not the first time and it won’t be the last, but so far Seattle Washington has about 3 times the amount of snow this season than Boston (Logan Airport) has. That weather system is crossing the country and will bring some wintry weather to our area during Tuesday. Before it gets here, we have a dry and seasonably cold day today under high pressure, much more tranquil than the ferocious wind gusts of yesterday. And then a weak disturbance which will be in the process of falling apart as it pushes into dry air will manage to bring some cloudiness to the region tonight and Monday but will have lost its ability to produce any snowfall, even though it will be cold enough. The system that will be carrying plenty of moisture will arrive Tuesday from southwest to northeast during the course of the day, starting with enough cold air to produce snow at the onset, but with a primary low tracking through the Great Lakes and a secondary low remaining on the weak side until after it goes by our area, we’ll see enough warming aloft to end the production of snowflakes and turn them to raindrops. How those drops reach the surface will then be determined by the amount of cold air left at the ground and its thickness. The feeling at this point is that we’ll see the snow transition to sleet during Tuesday evening then rain during the night into early Wednesday, at which time we’ll have to keep an eye on surface temperatures, especially interior areas, for icing. But even in those locations it should warm enough so that the system ends as rain showers everywhere during the day Wednesday, followed by a drying trend as the system begins to pull away. Some colder air will wrap in behind it, not in time to change the rain showers back to snow showers, but waiting until the moisture has departed. What this will do, as high pressure moves in, is bring dry and seasonably chilly weather for Thursday – Valentine’s Day. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind light W.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 18-25. Wind light N.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow develops southwest to northeast during the day, changing to sleet/ice/rain south to north during the evening. Early idea of snow accumulation before changeover is under 1 inch south of I-90 and up to a few inches to the north with the greatest chance for several inches being in higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 30-37 occurring late-day or evening. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to SE.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy start with rain showers likely. Partly sunny and windy thereafter. Temperatures rise to 40s then fall to 30s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 15-19)
Next storm threat late February 15 into February 16 looks like a Great Lakes Cutter low pressure system with milder air and a rain threat. Windy, colder late February 16 into February 17 with a risk of snow showers. Breezy but cold and dry February 18. Next system looks like a weak one passing south of the region with a light snow area missing the region at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 20-24)
The best snow threat of the winter may occur around the middle of this period, but there are several things in the atmosphere that need to line up just so, and this will be something I’ll be following closely, otherwise we’ll see a system that either tracks through the Great Lakes and brings mix/rain, or a system that passes south of the region with cold/dry air dominant. There is nothing really that odd about this particular weather pattern resulting in a lack of snow in southern New England. It’s just not something we see all that often, especially recently. We happen to sit in the geographical location for missing significant snowfall events so far this cold season, with 2 regional exceptions. We’ll see if the third will take place in this time period.