DAYS 1-5 (JULY 10-14)

Ingredients are in place for a significant rain event today in the Northeast. Here in the WHW forecast area we’ll be luckier than the heavier rain areas west of the Connecticut River Valley from northern CT through western MA and especially VT, and adjacent eastern NY, where rainfall amounts of up to double-digit totals cannot be ruled out, and flooding may rival that of Tropical Storm Irene in August 2011. The rainfall amounts and flood threat will drop off as you head eastward, but we can still see some heavy enough rainfall for at least minor to locally moderate flooding, more of the poor drainage and small stream variety. Most of this will take place from later this morning through this afternoon as waves of heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms move through. This is in response to a wave of low pressure moving northward along an inverted trough just to our west, tapping tropical moisture in place. While the risk is very low, some of the embedded heavier showers / thunderstorms can produce damaging wind gusts, and there’s an even lower but non-zero risk of low level rotation in isolated heavier cells that could lead to a brief relatively weak tornado. Low pressure will then start to lift northward and the shower activity will come to an end from southwest to northeast this evening and tonight. Some areas of rather dense fog around this morning may return again during tonight as the temperature and dew point match. Tuesday, we’ll see improvement with some at least partial clearing, but I can’t rule out one more passing shower or two from west to east as the trough line swings eastward behind the departing low, but in general it’ll be a much nicer day than today, although still on the muggy side. Wednesday, high pressure builds in both at the surface and aloft, and while it will “bring the heat”, relatively speaking, it will also drop the dew point slightly – maybe some of you will notice it, but it will be somewhat counteracted by the hotter temperatures with a few lower 90s for highs, while most areas peak in the upper 80s, and some coastal areas are a little cooler due to a sea breeze that likely develops. Enjoy that fair weather interlude if you can, because the overall pattern is still unsettled, and the next trough and frontal system will approach Thursday and Friday when the chance of showers and thunderstorms goes up again, along with the humidity, although the heat will be held in check.

TODAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers, some with heavy rain. Chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of fog early. Highs 72-79. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH but locally strong and gusty winds may occur around any heavier showers/storms.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers end. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Areas of fog early. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point 65+. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 85-92, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to S under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. Highs 82-89. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 15-19)

The July 15-16 weekend will be warm and humid with a daily chance of a few showers and thunderstorms with a weak trough of low pressure around. This general pattern continues into next week as well. No major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 20-24)

Overall pattern of weak west to east flow with a weak trough often nearby. This brings a couple shower and thunderstorm chances and seasonable, slightly variable temperatures, with no sustained heat indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 9-13)

Clouds are dominant today along with continued high humidity. Fog and stratus will be more persistent in coastal areas as higher clouds above limit the sun’s ability to burn these off, and overall we’ll have a cloudier day today, with limited chances for showers and a few thunderstorms to develop, restricted to mainly interior locations this afternoon. But any that do form can contain heavy downpours. The frontal boundary that’s been edging closer to the region will be just to our west through today into Monday but a wave of low pressure forming on it will enhance rainfall tonight into Monday. The heaviest thrust of this will be just west of the WHW forecast area where some significant flooding may take place. We’ll have our own round or two of fairly widespread moderate to heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms to swing through here overnight and Monday. There is a potential that the heavier cells can produce damaging wind gusts – something we haven’t seen much of around here lately. Also, the flash flood potential is there with areas of heavy rainfall. It’ll be important to be weather-aware across the region during Monday. As the low pressure wave lifts through northern New England Monday night into Tuesday, things will quiet down, but it may take a while to clear out. We do end up with a better day Tuesday – a sun/cloud mix, still humid, but a much lower chance that anyone sees any rain, maybe just a few isolated showers. High pressure both at the surface and aloft brings a summery day Wednesday without a rain threat – just very warm, lots of sun, and fairly humid. An approaching cold front brings a shower and thunderstorm threat back to the region for Thursday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring areas west of I-95 during the second half of the afternoon. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers. Chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of fog early. Highs 72-79. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH but locally strong and gusty winds may occur around any heavier showers/storms.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of showers early in the morning. Areas of fog early. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 84-91, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to S under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. Highs 82-89. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 14-18)

A lingering shower or thunderstorm possible early in the period, otherwise a drying trend into the July 15-16 weekend with a shower/thunderstorm threat returning before it’s over, and into early the following week as another frontal system moves into the region and hangs around. Humidity likely remains high, but no major sustained heat indicated.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 19-23)

Overall pattern of weak west to east flow with a weak trough often nearby. This brings a couple shower and thunderstorm chances and seasonable, slightly variable temperatures, with no sustained heat indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 8-12)

This weekend will be a muggy one, warmest today, a little less warm tomorrow, more sun today than tomorrow, and limited shower and thunderstorm chances. Today’s best shot at pop up showers and thunderstorms will be west of I-95. Tomorrow’s shower chance goes up later in the day, and coverage of those should be greater, but with more cloud cover the thunderstorm chance is likely to drop off somewhat. This all takes place with a low pressure trough to our west, and an associated surface frontal boundary getting closer to our region, while it’s held back a bit by a weak ridge of high pressure to our east. There’s still a hint of uncertainty as to how the wettest weather plays out in terms of location / time frame Monday into Tuesday, but for now keeping the forecast generally the same, with Monday and Monday evening being the wettest for the region overall, and some improvement for Tuesday. There is some guidance that has the opposite idea, and I’m aware of the possibility that it ends up more correct than my current forecast, but I don’t think it will. One thing I’m more confident of, high pressure brings a warm, rain-free day to us on Wednesday, but with humidity still on the high side.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, mainly west of I-95. Highs 83-90 except 75-82 South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Areas of fog overnight. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring the second half of the afternoon. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers. Chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Highs 72-79. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of showers in the morning. Areas of fog early. Highs 73-80. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 84-91, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 13-17)

Mainly rain-free with a minimal shower/thunderstorm threat for July 13, then a better shot at showers/storms as a front pushes through from west to east July 14 based on current timing. This should clear the region out for at least the start of the July 15-16 weekend but showers/storms may return before it’s over, into the start of the following week, along with continued high humidity, but no major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 18-22)

Overall pattern features weak west to east flow with a weak trough often nearby. This brings a couple shower and thunderstorm chances and seasonable, slightly variable temperatures, with no sustained heat indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 7-11)

Today’s blog update carries a similar idea to yesterday’s but attempts to fine-tune some of the uncertainty. Today’s weather will be similar to yesterday’s. Low clouds and areas of fog dominate eastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA to start the day, but most of this will burn off by mid to late morning. Eventually we’ll see more of a sun/cloud mix with some diurnal cumulus forming. Today’s isolated shower and thunderstorm chance is lower. Where as we popped a half dozen or so in the WHW forecast area, today I’d expect about 3 or fewer, and favoring areas away from the coast. Today’s coastal sea breeze will cool the beaches, but won’t be met with the convergence and instability that yesterday’s was, so that shower / storm trigger will be absent, with just a couple to a few air mass bubble-ups possible inland. Anything that does form fades quickly toward sunset. Some mid to high level cloud patches from a frontal boundary still well to our west can be seen in the western sky later today. Areas of stratus and patchy fog will redevelop tonight as the high humidity continues, but again this will burn off during Saturday morning. The trough and front to our west edges a bit eastward toward our region, very slowly, and during the day Saturday we’ll see more cloudiness in association with it, but directly frontal-driven showers and storms will stay west of the region, with a moist southerly air flow and solar heating contributing to isolated showers and storms, maybe a few more than today, but favoring areas west of the I-95 belt during the afternoon. Again, any of this activity subsides by nightfall, and a repeat of stratus development takes place in portions of the region later at night into Sunday morning. Sunday’s weather should feature some sun but with a mix of clouds too as initially the frontal boundary has limited impact on the region, but as the day goes along, clouds will win the battle and it is by late-day or evening when the shower threat goes up significantly. I do think thunderstorm activity will be limited, most likely over interior locations, with predominantly non-lightning-producing shower activity. A wave of low pressure brings a good shot at a fairly widespread significant showery rainfall to the region into Monday, perhaps for much of that day, with improvement expected as the low moves away Tuesday. Humidity will remain high throughout this time frame although there will be a cooling trend in temperature.

TODAY: Low clouds southern areas burning off by mid to late morning, otherwise sunshine and developing clouds with a chance of a few isolated showers and/or thunderstorms mainly away from the coast this afternoon. Highs 84-91 except 76-83 South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH except S-SE over eastern MA and RI.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon, favoring northeastern CT, central MA, and southwestern NH. Highs 84-91 except 76-83 South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW-S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring the second half of the afternoon. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers. Chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Highs 72-79. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the morning. Areas of fog early. Highs 73-80. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 12-16)

A fair weather interlude with weak high pressure in the area early in the period during the middle of next week, followed by another unsettled weather episode with showers / thunderstorms later in the week before improvement during the July 15-16 weekend. No sustained major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 17-21)

Weak zonal flow pattern, still a tendency for a weak trough to hang around. A couple shower and thunderstorm chances and seasonable, slightly variable temperatures, with no sustained heat indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 6-10)

The feel of summer is here – high humidity and a bit more heat than we’ve seen. It will be with us into the start of the weekend too as a weak high pressure ridge over the region now shifts to the east while a trough digs into the Midwest. One weak offshore surface low pressure area likely pushes more cloudiness into portions of the region, especially RI and eastern MA, at times on Friday where it won’t be quite as warm as today. With this system offshore and part of a very weak nearly unnoticeable block, it may very likely hold back an approaching frontal system late week into the weekend from the west, keeping the unsettled weather threat minimal until sometime on Sunday. The wildcard day on this forecast is Monday. Not quite sure yet if the increase in the unsettled weather chance on Sunday persists Monday or moves off between 2 more distinctively defined systems. This will be something to monitor over the next few days.

TODAY: Any low clouds/fog dissipating early followed by a sun/cloud mix and a slight chance of isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, which would favor interior areas from south central NH to central MA. Highs 84-91, 76-83 coastal areas again coolest Cape Cod and the Islands. Dew points 64-71. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of isolated showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 84-91 except 76-83 South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH except S-SE over eastern MA and RI.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon, favoring northeastern CT, central MA, and southwestern NH. Highs 84-91 except 76-83 South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW-S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 77-84, coolest South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 11-15)

Upper level low pressure and a frontal boundary in the vicinity will bring an unsettled pattern with opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, which may finally shift back to fair weather by the end of the period. Temperatures near normal in general with no sustained major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 16-20)

Weak zonal flow pattern, still a tendency for a weak trough. A couple shower and thunderstorm chances and seasonable with no sustained heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 5-9)

I hope you all survived the holiday and its showers and storms (some areas) firework-obscuring low clouds and fog (some other areas and some of the same areas), etc. You get the idea. Sometimes Mother Nature is kind, and sometimes she is not so, but she’s just doing her thing, and she’s been doing that to the dismay of many lately (not I though, because I just take it in stride and adjust as I go). But even I would not mind a couple days that are more classic summertime feeling with lots of sun and maybe less of a rain threat than we’ve seen on many recent days. Well, that’s what we get today, and tomorrow, with weak high pressure in control, but strong enough to keep the shower and thunderstorm threat to an isolated minimum, with maybe a quick couple of the pop-up variety mainly over interior northern MA and southern NH both days, but with the extreme majority of the region seeing nothing at all. And for the first time in a while it’ll be on the hotter side, not sizzling heat of course, barely getting to 90 for the highest temps with 80s for most. The coast can see a cooling sea breeze on both afternoons, keeping the high temps closer to 80 there, even some 70s over Cape Cod and the Islands where wind from just about any direction is a “sea breeze” of one kind or another. This warmer weather does come with a continuation of fairly high humidity though, and we haven’t had too many days that combine 80s and higher humidity, so it may feel quite hot to some, despite it being fairly modest by New England. When we get to Friday and Saturday, the high pressure area will shift to the east and a low pressure trough will be setting up in the Midwest and Ohio Valley. This produces a southerly air flow over our region. This is a warm pattern, but I do think any shower and thunderstorm activity will be quite limited, or even non-existent for most of the region. A small low pressure area offshore may keep it a bit cooler with a slightly better shower threat around Cape Cod on Friday, but this remains to be seen and may be a feature over-forecast by guidance, so will keep an eye on that. A frontal system associated with the trough to the west will get closer, probably close enough to send showers and storms into western New England Friday, but they may only skirt the western reaches of the WHW forecast area later in the day or evening before they are largely dissipated. And this system is not going to really make any progress on Saturday, which other than the slight chance for a few pop up showers and storms mainly over interior sections, may be a completely rain-free day for much of the region, along with continued very warm and humid weather. Sunday’s a bit of a split in prognosticating tools, with some showing some form of Saturday rerun, but showers/storms getting closer from the west, and some showing a wetter scenario evolving. I’m leaning closer to the second scenario, and will have showers in the forecast. I don’t think the set-up screams big thunderstorms this far in advance, but it may very well be one that can produce some heavy rainfall, nonetheless. This will be another forecast detail I’ll monitor and fine-tune. If the slower scenario ends up correct, Sunday ends up largely rain-free and the weekend ends up quite nice if you don’t mind the high humidity we’ll have.

TODAY: Lingering low clouds/fog South Coast burning off by late morning. Otherwise sunshine then a sun/cloud mix with only a slight chance of a few isolated showers or thunderstorms this afternoon, favoring interior northern portions of the WHW area (southwestern NH, north central MA). Highs 83-90, except 76-83 immediate shore, coolest Cape Cod and Islands. Dew points 64-71. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear except areas of low clouds and fog redeveloping, mainly in interior low elevations and along the South Coast. Lows 63-70. Dew points 63-70. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Any low clouds/fog dissipating early followed by a sun/cloud mix and a slight chance of isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, which would favor interior areas from south central NH to central MA. Highs 84-91, 76-83 coastal areas again coolest Cape Cod and the Islands. Dew points 64-71. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of isolated showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 84-91 except 76-83 South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon, favoring northeastern CT, central MA, and southwestern NH. Highs 84-91 except 76-83 South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW-S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 10-14)

Upper level low pressure and a frontal boundary in the vicinity will bring an unsettled pattern with opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures near normal in general with no sustained major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 15-19)

Weak zonal flow pattern, still a tendency for a weak trough. A couple shower and thunderstorm chances and seasonable with no sustained heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 4-8)

Independence Day weather will not be independent of unsettled conditions. But there is good news too! A quasi-stationary trough bisects the WHW as it runs southwest to northeast across the region. There is air convergence along this trough line and with the additional help from an upper trough passing overhead, showers and a few thunderstorms have been generated and moving across the region since late last evening (after a break yesterday). This is basically going to continue to be the story with waves of showers occurring – moving southwest to northeast across the region – this morning and midday. With the help of solar heating, one more round of showers and storms will be generated during the first half of the afternoon. The greatest threat for the heaviest rainfall with these will be in the vicinity of I-90 and southward, where torrential downpours can lead to flash flooding. The threat for severe thunderstorms is minimal as many of the parameters for that will be lacking, but keep in mind that any thunderstorm is capable of producing dangerous lightning, even if it is not frequent, and this threat should never be ignored, especially with so many outdoor plans for today. As we are dealing with that round of showers and storms, the upper trough axis will be just getting ready to exit the region from west to east, and the surface boundary will respond by starting to move eastward, ending the shower and storm threat from west to east during the second half of the afternoon. Any isolated showers and storms that may pop up behind this, further north, and west, will fade and dissipate by evening as the atmosphere becomes more stable. This sets the region up for much more favorable conditions for tonight’s fireworks displays. The only “issue” may be some areas of fog that form due to the lingering moisture near ground level. I don’t expect this to be extensive. Weak high pressure builds in for midweek with generally fair and warm to hot weather, still with fairly high humidity, for Wednesday and Thursday. Both days can feature slightly cooler sea breeze in coastal locations, and the pop up shower / t-storm threat is minimal, but I can’t rule it out 100%. Friday and Saturday, high pressure shifts slightly to the east and a more southerly air flow will be in place. This will continue the high humidity, but a southerly air flow tends to have more modified temperatures coming off the ocean water to the south, keeping significant heat from occurring. On these days, the South Coast would be “coolest” with a direct ocean wind. When we get to the end of the week – Friday and Saturday – we’ll be watching the approach of a frontal boundary from the west, but there are some indications that this boundary may not be close enough to trigger much of any shower and thunderstorm activity on Friday, and may do so only for western portions of the region Saturday. This part of the forecast is lower confidence and something to be monitored as the week goes on…

TODAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Mostly cloudy with episodic showers and possible thunderstorms until mid afternoon, with heaviest rainfall potential along of and south of I-90 during the first 4 hours of the afternoon. Variably cloudy with any showers/storms exiting to the east and any lingering isolated activity dissipating late afternoon / early evening. Highs 75-82. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable, mostly E, up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point in 60+. Wind variable to NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Highs 83-90. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Highs 83-90. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+ Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of isolated showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 81-88. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, favoring southwestern NH, central MA, and eastern CT. Highs 80-87. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 9-13)

Upper level low pressure and a frontal boundary in the vicinity will bring an unsettled pattern with opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures near normal in general with no sustained major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 14-18)

Weak zonal flow pattern, still a tendency for a weak trough. A couple shower and thunderstorm chances and seasonable with no sustained heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 3-7)

The bad news: The shower and thunderstorm chance exists into the holiday. The good news: There will be long rain-free breaks, and regional drier conditions seem to coincide with fireworks displays tonight and Tuesday night. We still have to get a trough to slide across our region and begin to exit seaward, but this doesn’t happen fully until the end of the day Tuesday. We’ve had another significant wave of showers/rain during the overnight. We’re left with foggy areas and a general overcast across the region early this morning, but we’ll see more of an opportunity for clouds to break for intervals of sun, and we can’t rule out a few more showers and storms firing up during the day today, though coverage will be less than yesterday. Where they do occur though, heavy rain would be likely, and there is a low chance that a severe storm could occur with hail and/or damaging wind gusts. Any thunderstorms contain a lightning threat, so be aware of anything in the area if you have outdoor plans – not only today but tomorrow too. It looks fairly quiet this evening before another cluster of showers/storms comes through parts of the region during the overnight. This sets us up for one more round of scattered showers and storms on Tuesday somewhere midday to mid afternoon, with the greatest chance being near and south of I-90. It finally looks like this activity is outta here by evening and we can enjoy a weather-worry-free Independence Day evening, the only exception being some patchy fog in prone areas that if occurring early enough could make viewing fireworks “interesting”. High pressure builds in midweek with warmer, drier weather, and the next frontal boundary approaches by later Friday when a few showers and storms may be in the region. And an update on the wildfire smoke. Near-surface smoke may hang near the South Coast for a while today, otherwise it’s largely exited the region, and will stay away through the holiday into midweek. Some higher altitude smoke may drift in at times mid to late week, but not overly thick.

TODAY: Overcast start with areas of fog and possibly a lingering shower. Clouds break for sun at times but chance of a shower or thunderstorm midday and afternoon. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind variable, mainly S to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm – best chance overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible until mid afternoon. Highs 77-84. Dew point near 70, falling slightly later in the day. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming W around 10 MPH late in the day.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point falling to lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 83-90. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90, may cool back to the 70s coast. Dew point near 60. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 62-69. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A late-day thunderstorm possible. Highs 82-89. Dew point surpassing 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 8-12)

Frontal boundary in the region on the weekend of July 8-9 brings a shower and thunderstorm chance. This unsettled pattern may continue into the following week as well. No major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 13-17)

General weak troughing dominating with humid conditions and a chance of showers/storms at times in this pattern. No major heat foreseen.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 2-6)

Saturday was quite a nice day to start off the month of July if you ignore the low level wildfire smoke that reduced visibility and worsened air quality. Some of that hangs around today before being scoured out on Monday. Unsettled weather will be the theme of the next couple days as a low pressure trough swings through the region with a series of disturbances. Timing of these will be crucial for planned outdoor activities such as beach plans, cookouts, and fireworks displays. Today will be the day with the least favorable rainfall timing and most extensive cloud cover. The largest and longest-lasting shower episodes will take place this morning to mid afternoon from west to east across the region. It won’t rain in every WHW forecast area location the entire time, with the initial thrust to the north and west of Boston, and eventually further to the east and south, but even between this area and another that arrives later tonight there can be a few spotty showers and thunderstorms. The area that arrives late tonight will move out by dawn Monday. From midday on, and especially afternoon on Monday, we’ll have to watch for scattered showers and thunderstorms with the storm possibly strong to severe, especially west of the I-95 corridor. I suspect this activity takes a break in the evening before another disturbances later at night brings additional shower/storm chances. Current timing suggests that a shower and thunderstorm threat will exist Tuesday (Independence Day) morning before a break, and only isolated to widely scattered showers and storms for the afternoon hours, but any that do occur can contain very heavy downpours. If there’s any better news it’s that the coverage of these will be limited and that they should fade for evening fireworks displays in most if not all of the region. Midweek (Wednesday and Thursday) will be warm and summery with a weak area of high pressure moving in, but Thursday may feature some cooling coastal sea breezes.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodic showers and possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog early. Haze/smoke. Highs 73-80. Dew point rising to near 70. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Passing showers and possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Haze/smoke. Lows 64-71. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind S under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 76-83. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Mostly cloudy with a good chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm in the morning. Partly sunny with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 77-84. Dew point 60+. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 83-90. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90, may cool back to the 70s coast. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 7-11)

Unsure of timing of next frontal boundary and disturbance, later July 7 or July 8, for a shower/thunderstorm chance, but the overall pattern during this period looks more settled and seasonable with weak westerly or zonal flow dominating.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 12-16)

Weak flow pattern including the return of weak troughing may incite more unsettled weather for mid month with a lack of heat but high humidity. Fine-tuning to come of course.

COMMENTARY

If you know me well now you hear me chopping down weather apps, and rightfully so as it turns out. I have already run into several people I know that have changed plans or asked me if they should change plans based on what “my weather app says…” … No, no, no. This is not good. It’s not going to rain for the next 3 days, 5 days, 7 days, 2 years. Please. Let’s find a way to learn how to use these things with discretion, or just stop looking at them until the information can be refined and defined. It’s as good as random right now, and so obviously focused on the “biggest” potential as to make it look like that’s the only weather that is to be expected. Count the hours of rain vs. the hours of no rain even during the recent unsettled stretch (say, the last week). You’ll find dry hours will win out, and in many areas, significantly. An hour’s worth of downpours can be a big pain in the butt if it’s right in the middle of your cookout or beach day, and there’s not a whole lot we can do about it other than prepare for the chance, and have a place to wait it out, and a recovery plan if necessary. But that’s nature. It’s always been that way. “Way back when” we didn’t even have a live radar on our phone, or a phone at all if you go back far enough, to tell us there was a shower or thunderstorm entering the neighborhood. And now we do, and it seems like the technology making that possible is also struggling to deliver the correct message to the “weather consumer”. But there’s really no way to fix this other than to spread the word, as I often do. Ditch the apps, or use them wisely, and listen to the professionals – please! No, we’re not always going to be right either. But we’re more valuable. You can bet on that. 🙂

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 1-5)

Hello July! This month starts off with kinda-sorta-but-not-really the same pattern we’ve had in June. The pattern is “unsettled” but if you read my commentary above then you know I’m going to point out we’ll have plenty of “rain-free time”, and we will. In fact, I think cancelled bbq’s and fireworks and pool parties and beach days will be the exception rather than the rule from today right through the holiday and even the day after (aka “day 5”). This is how I think it’s going to break down, first on the broad scale, then a little more pinpointed as you read on in this discussion, followed by the detailed forecast. First, the marine layer made great strides into our region from the east overnight and much of the region started the day blanketed by stratus clouds with areas of fog, and even a few patches of light drizzle. Parts of the South Coast and some western portions of the WHW forecast area were excepted from this, starting the day with sun. Elsewhere, the rising sun will burn this layer off as the morning goes on. You’ll notice where sun is already shining and where it emerges that the hazy look is back, and this is due to the eastern side of a wildfire smoke plume that has been to our west for the last couple days and finally pulled eastward by a bit more westerly wind in the atmosphere. It will be around for the weekend, and enough so that at least for today the air quality will be compromised, so keep this in mind if you have outdoor activities planned. As we head through Sunday and Monday, the smoke plume should thin out and slowly recede to the north. The weak high pressure ridge causing out west wind to blow the smoke into the region at this time will shift to more of a southerly flow as a low pressure trough crosses the region Sunday through Tuesday. This will help slowly disperse the smoke, but it will bring back the chance of showers and thunderstorms that you may have to dodge during your weekend / holiday plans. But again, this is not going to “ruin” this summer period of time. You just have to have a plan and be ready to use it. Right now, I think disturbances coming through the region in association with this trough will bring several waves of showers to us on Sunday through early Tuesday. While guessing the timing on these waves is a gamble, current leaning is #1 early to mid morning Sunday, #2 early to mid afternoon Sunday, #3 late Sunday night to early hours Monday, #4 midday Monday, #5 late night Monday to early hours Tuesday. During the day on Tuesday, Independence Day, I’m leaning toward an isolated shower or thunderstorm in a few areas but less of a chance overall for the region as the trough axis begins to shift eastward, beyond the region. By Wednesday, that feature is gone, and weak high pressure brings fair weather and July warmth.

TODAY: Low clouds/fog many areas early, then increasing sun but mixed with clouds and haze/smoke. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60s. Wind E-SE early shifting to SE-S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Haze/smoke. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodic showers and possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog early. Haze/smoke. Highs 77-84. Dew point rising to near 70. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Passing showers and possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Haze/smoke. Lows 64-71. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind S under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 76-83. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Partly sunny. A possible shower or thunderstorm. Highs 77-84. Dew point falling slightly to lower 60s. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 83-90. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 6-10)

Unsure of timing of next frontal boundary and disturbance, later July 7 or July 8, for a shower/thunderstorm chance, but the overall pattern during this period looks more settled and seasonable with weak westerly or zonal flow dominating.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 11-15)

This period will bring us to mid July and the mid point of meteorological summer with a likely continuation of a weak zonal flow pattern, fairly seasonable temperatures overall, a lack of sustained significant heat, and a couple shower and thunderstorm chances which can’t obviously be detailed so far in advance.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 30 – JULY 4)

A weak ridge of high pressure brings mostly fair weather to our region on the final day of June and the first day of July today and tomorrow. The final lingering effect of a trough moving offshore can still help set off an isolated shower or thunderstorm over a few inland locations during this afternoon, but odds are highly against any one location seeing any such activity, so go about any outdoor plans with just an eye kept out for any quick interruption. Tonight, a stratus blanket forms over outer Cape Cod and the Islands with enough low level moisture, and a little disturbance may kick off an isolated shower in the early hours of Saturday around that area too, otherwise the WHW forecast are will enjoy a nice Saturday with lots of sun (just early clouds Cape Cod Islands) and some clouds moving in later on. The Sunday-Tuesday period of the extended holiday weekend will become more humid and somewhat more unsettled, but none of these will be “rainy days” so to speak. They will all carry shower and thunderstorm chances, but in terms of getting your planned activities in, most of them will be a go – with luck/timing playing a roll into the details of whether or not showers and/or storms interrupt things. Not an ideal set-up, but not the worst, as a series of disturbances and a broader trough cross the region west to east. The timing may be quick enough that the trough is actually east of our area at some point Tuesday (Independence Day) with a drying trend in humidity and a lowering shower threat. These details will be fine-tuned as much as possible in coming updates…

TODAY: Early-morning fog patches in valleys, swamps, and bogs dissipates. Sun and patchy clouds. A few building clouds may release an isolated shower or thunderstorm over inland locations during the afternoon hours. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with some coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Patchy fog mainly interior lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds return west to east. Chance of showers overnight. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point returns to 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and possible thunderstorms until midday. Partly sunny with only isolated showers / thunderstorms thereafter. Highs 77-84. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Partly sunny. A possible shower or thunderstorm. Highs 77-84. Dew point 60+, may drop later. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 5-9)

Transition to drier, warmer weather as high pressure dominates the region early in the period, then around mid period may need to watch for a frontal boundary to bring a shower and thunderstorm chance not yet timed correctly by medium range guidance, and fair weather to follow that.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 10-14)

Weak zonal flow pattern. Limited but a couple of shower and thunderstorm chances with passing disturbances and a lack of sustained significant heat, though more seasonable overall.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

While the overall pattern doesn’t change very much, there will be changes in the day-to-day weather as we move through the next several days. Upper level low pressure drifts eastward over the region today and still supports diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity, but in more isolated form in contrast to yesterday’s more organized activity. And as previously stated, this low gets to our east finally by Friday with just a chance of a few more isolated showers/storms during the day. We finally get a day without a shower / storm threat at all on Saturday as a weak high pressure area controls the weather. As we head to Sunday and Monday, the picture is a little more fuzzy. It looks like one initial disturbance may bring a shower threat to our region in the early hours of Sunday, and then the impact of the next upper level trough remains in question as we head through Monday. While it tries to push into the region, there will be some resistance from a high pressure ridge to our northeast, and it may be enough to minimize the impact of the trough. So for now I will smooth over the forecast wording for the end of this 5-day period and fine-tune it as we get closer.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. Any heavier showers/storms may contain small hail. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, possibly gusty near any storms.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH with some coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Patchy fog mainly interior lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind variable to W under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point middle 50s to 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds return west to east. Chance of showers overnight. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point returns to 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and possible thunderstorms until midday. Partly sunny with only isolated showers / thunderstorms thereafter. Highs 77-84. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower. Highs 75-82. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 4-8)

Upper level low pressure nearby but far enough southwest of the region to minimize shower and storm chances early in the period, then a more westerly (zonal) flow with a few opportunities for passing showers/storms and somewhat more seasonable temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 9-13)

Zonal pattern with weak westerly flow but a tendency for surface high pressure to be located in eastern Canada. A couple shower chances. No major heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

We received a bit of a break in the region in general yesterday after the pre-dawn rainfall gave way to a largely rain-free day in most areas, save for a few isolated quick-hitting showers. But that has moved along and the upper level low controlling the weather is still to our west, and we’re still in a moist southerly flow ahead of it. We have another batch of showers and embedded thunder moving across mainly eastern MA as I write this, having come up from the South Coast region just a short while ago, and even as this exits, we can still see occasional showers and thunderstorms at any time today – probably the most unsettled overall day of this particular stretch. Activity will diminish during tonight, but can re-fire in isolated to scattered form Thursday as the upper low moves right across the region. I think Thursday’s activity will have less coverage than today’s but any that do occur can still produce heavy rain and even some small hail as well. Friday, the now-weakening upper low will exit to our east with only a very limited chance of a pop up shower or storm in its limited lingering influence. Heading into the weekend, July starts with a fair and summery day Saturday, but the next trough / upper low will already be approaching the region from the west and this will toss an unsettled interruption into a portion of the weekend. Currently, I expect this to be the first half of Sunday when there is the opportunity for showers and thunderstorm, but this system may move along quickly enough to salvage the second half of Sunday. But at day 5, this is not a high-confidence forecast at this point. Check updates…

TODAY: Mainly cloudy with showers and embedded thunderstorms, especially eastern areas into mid morning. Sun/cloud mix late morning on but scattered showers and thunderstorms are also possible at any time. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle 60s to around 70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds. Lingering showers, chance of thunderstorms, and areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. Any heavier showers/storms may contain small hail. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, possibly gusty near any storms.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH with some coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Patchy fog mainly interioer lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind variable to W under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point middle 50s to 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds return west to east. Chance of showers overnight. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point returns to 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and possible thunderstorms until midday. Partly sunny with only isolated showers / thunderstorms thereafter. Highs 77-84. Dew point 60+. Wind S shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 3-7)

While upper level low pressure is nearby, it looks weaker and displaced to the south and west, limiting the shower and thunderstorm chance which will favor interior and southern areas early in the weekend including Independence Day. A more zonal (west to east) flow takes over midweek on with seasonable warmth and a possible shower and thunderstorm a couple times with otherwise mainly fair weather.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 8-12)

Zonal pattern with weak westerly flow but a tendency for surface high pressure to be located in eastern Canada. This increases the onshore wind chance and is a factor in keeping major heat at bay. A couple passing disturbances can bring shower and thunderstorm chances, but this pattern still does not look as active as the one we’re in now.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

The upper level low pressure area in control of the current stretch of unsettled weather will keep its influence on our region through the final day of June, or less dramatic sounding, through Friday. This system will be drifting slowly eastward from the Great Lakes through the New England area during this time frame, still centered to our west through Wednesday, right over us on Thursday, and finally shifting off to our east by Friday. There are generally no changes to the overall idea of periodic showers and thunderstorms today and Wednesday, with stretches of rain-free weather too, then a more pop-up shower/storm day Thursday and less of a chance of this occurring by Friday as we see the moist southerly air flow we have now become variable Thursday then more westerly by Friday.

TODAY: Clouds dominate. Areas of fog South Coast / Cape Cod. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, but long rain-free stretches many areas. Highs

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Areas of fog, especially in the morning. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms likely, especially during the afternoon. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle 60s to around 70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds. Lingering showers, chance of thunderstorms, and areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. Any heavier showers/storms may contain small hail. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, possibly gusty near any storms.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH with some coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Patchy fog mainly interioer lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind variable to W under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point middle 50s to 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 2-6)

The next upper low appears that it will be a weaker version of its predecessor and send a disturbance through at some point on July 2 with a shower/thunderstorm chance, then be pushed back to the south and southwest by a slightly stronger westerly flow that brings a drier weather pattern in for July 3-5 before a disturbance brings a shower/thunderstorm chance to end the period. Temperatures closer to normal and no major sustained heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 7-11)

Zonal pattern with weak westerly flow but a tendency for surface high pressure to be located in eastern Canada. This increases the onshore wind chance and is a factor in keeping major heat at bay. Limited but still a couple shower and thunderstorm chances, but not as active as the June pattern.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 26-30)

This “work-week” through Friday is also the final 5 days of June, and the theme of the weather will be generally the same throughout as upper level low pressure will gradually drift eastward across the Northeast and New England, all the while undergoing a very slow weakening process while disturbances rotate around it, providing opportunities for showers and thunderstorms at various times. Getting a little more detailed where I can, we start today with extensive stratus and areas of fog. Ironically one of the areas with breaks of sun is the outer portion of Cape Cod, and while the South Coast and Cape will be in and out of low clouds and fog today and much of the week, they will also have “nicer” intervals. The stratus deck will break up across much of the region for at least partial sunshine today, but any sun will help fuel showers and thunderstorms, and today’s activity is most likely to occur during the afternoon over eastern CT, central MA, and southwestern to south central NH, while areas to the east are less likely to see them, at least until tonight. That’s when one of the aforementioned disturbances will swing into and across the region, keeping a shower and thunderstorm chance going through the night and into the early hours of Tuesday. I think if one day is to see the least amount of sun regionwide during this 5-day period, it will be Tuesday as we deal with a return of low clouds to start the day and above that an extensive canopy of mid to high level cloudiness associated with the remains of a Midwestern MCS (mesoscale convective system – aka a sizeable cluster of thunderstorms). Additional showers/storms can pop up in our area at any time regardless as another disturbance enters the region, courtesy our upper level low. Wednesday’s idea is more of a sun/cloud mix evolving as a slightly stronger southerly air flow tends to help the cloudiness line up with the wind in bands, but some of these can still evolve into bands of showers and thunderstorms. In this case you can get bands of showers staying over the same locations for longer periods of time as they line up with the wind flow, which will be southerly both at the surface and aloft. This set-up can lead to “training” or multiple shower and/or thunderstorm cells moving over the same region, which increases the chance of flooding, so we’ll have to watch for that. This activity should subside at night, but it may take its time doing so – will have to re-evaluate this based on monitoring short-range guidance leading up to it and then the radar that day and evening. By Thursday, the weakening upper low will be crossing overhead, and that day will feature a fair-weather start but pop up showers and thunderstorms possible anywhere during the afternoon and evening. These tend to cluster and then drive themselves via outflow boundaries when you have the upper low right overhead and no real strong steering wind, and then the activity diminishes with the lowering / setting sun. Also a higher hail potential can exist Thursday with the cold pool right atop the region. I’m optimistic that this low gets east of the region by Friday with a drier overall outlook, but still enough cyclonic flow and cold air aloft that we cannot rule out some pop up showers and storms, just with more isolated coverage and probably with a movement more to the southeast, in contrast to the more northward-moving showers/storms the first half of the week and the chaotic movement of any convection on Thursday. So you see, even within a pattern governed by the same system over several days, the details of certain things can change. There will be a lot to monitor as we go through these final June days.

TODAY: Extensive low clouds start the day, along with areas of fog especially South Coast. A sun/cloud mix follows but clouds may hang longer South Coast. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to severe, are most likely in eastern CT, central MA, and southwestern to south central NH, with only isolated activity east of there. Highs 70-77 immediate coast, 77-84 elsewhere but warmest interior valleys. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind SE up to 10 MPH but can be variable, strong/gusty near any storms.

TONIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Areas of fog, likely most dense in coastal areas. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Lows 63-70 Dew point 60+. Wind SE up to 10 MPH, can be variable/gusty around any showers/storms.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog. Highs 71-78. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Areas of fog, especially in the morning. Showers and thunderstorms likely, especially during the afternoon. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle 60s to around 70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds. Lingering showers, chance of thunderstorms, and areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. Any heavier showers/storms may contain small hail. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, possibly gusty near any storms.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. Highs 76-83. Dew point near 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 1-5)

Another but likely weaker upper low will be around for the July 1-2 weekend with a chance of showers and thunderstorms both of those days. Exit upper low and enter weak high pressure with less shower/storm chance, better weather, more seasonable but no major heat July 3-5. Moderate confidence on that forecast trend with fine-tuning to come.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 6-10)

We should head to the 1/3 of the way through July mark with a pattern that features no sustained major heat, and a weaker version of the late June pattern, with the trough a little further west than we’ve seen it, reducing the shower/storm chance somewhat, but still with a few opportunities.