DAYS 1-5 (JULY 25-29)
Some summer heat is on the way, but it will be a fairly short-lived bout of it as the pattern does not support long stretches of hot weather. We’ll be quite warm and more humid today and a shower and thunderstorm threat exists from mid afternoon to early evening as a trough approaches and passes. Any storms can be strong to locally severe but not expecting widespread activity. While high pressure builds over the region aloft and a surface high settles just to the south of our region Wednesday we’ll have a very warm but rain-free day with moderate humidity, then a more classic hot stretch is ours for Thursday and Friday along with high humidity. Contrary to my previous outlook, I’m shifting the higher thunderstorm threat forecast to Thursday as a pre-frontal trough seems to want to be a vigorous player. Timing looks late afternoon / early evening for the highest threat across the region, generally west to east, and will tweak this over the next 2 updates. High temps will reach or slightly exceed 90 in many areas on Thursday, and along with high humidity the heat indices can climb well into the 90s. This will be the case again Friday, so plan accordingly if you are to be outside. Friday’s thunderstorm threat will be more limited than Thursday’s between the pre-frontal trough and an approaching cold front, the timing of which is slow enough that it looks like a passage sometime on Saturday. Still have to nail down the timing of that front and the resultant shower and thunderstorm threat, which also has a diurnal heating component to it. Expect a shower and thunderstorm chance at any time on Saturday and I’ll also fine-tune the timing on this in upcoming updates. I do not think Saturday will be as hot as the 2 days that precede it due to more cloudiness, but the high humidity is likely to be still be here ahead of the front.
TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms mid afternoon to early evening. Highs 82-89, cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 84-91, cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60+. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny start then a sun/cloud mix. Showers and thunderstorms likely by mid to late afternoon into evening, and some can be quite strong. Highs 88-95. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with showers and thunderstorms diminishing evening. Partly cloudy with patchy ground fog overnight. Lows 68-75. Dew point 65+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible. Highs 89-96, hottest interior valleys, except cooler portions of South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 70-77. Dew point 65+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW by late.
DAYS 6-10 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)
Canadian air mass brings dry weather and lower humidity July 30-31. Higher humidity and a shower chance returns the first few days of August as a trough of low pressure moves into the region, but no significant heat.
DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 4-8)
Overall pattern dominated by a weak trough. A shot of drier air from Canada at some point, preceded by shower and thunderstorm chances.