C-19 Chat Post – 9-21-2022

Wrap-around moisture behind departing low pressure gives us an unsettled day today, and the cloud cover will keep us on the cool side as well. Improvement arrives late tonight and leads to a nicer day Wednesday as a narrow ridge of high pressure moves across the region. But look out! Here comes a strong cold front Thursday morning, accompanied by showers and possible thunderstorms. This will pass by and then dry weather returns, but this time with the bluster and cool-down of autumn later Thursday, just in time for the autumnal equinox Thursday evening. Friday and Saturday will feature fair weather and below normal temperatures as Canadian air is delivered on the eastern side of high pressure. Something further away will be impacting our region late this week, and that is Hurricane Fiona, which is forecast to track west of Bermuda late Thursday and then accelerate northeastward in the waters well east of New England Friday before heading into southeastern Canada Saturday. Large swells and rough surf will result, impacting any coastal plans.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle morning. Scattered showers in the afternoon, a few of which can be briefly heavy. Highs 66-73. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely evening. Areas of fog redevelop. Lows 51-58. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 70-77. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouds return from west to east. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm overnight / pre-dawn, favoring areas north of I-90. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms through midday, ending from northwest to southeast, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 67-74 but falling temperatures later in the day. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 58-65, coolest in higher elevations. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 44-51. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)

High pressure to the west of the region shifts to the south of the region with a bit warmer air arriving September 25, but we may also see the advance of clouds before the end of that day with a warm front approaching the region. This will be ahead of the next trough and low pressure system which is expected to bring a round of showery weather on September 26. Unsettled may linger to September 27 as well but the trend will be for a return to cool/dry weather middle to later next week.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

For now expecting high pressure to be the dominant force with fair weather and moderating temperatures, but we may need to watch for unsettled weather arriving later in the period, possibly in the form of remnant tropical moisture. A lot of uncertainty in this part of the outlook.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-20-2022

A back-door cold front has moved into the region and has put most of the WHW forecast area on the cooler side of the boundary, but this front is now slowing down, and will eventually come to a stop, or just waver around a little bit, stretching from the MA South Coast across southwestern or central RI and east central CT up into even south central MA for a while before it slips a bit south of there. This sets up a fairly sharp temperature contrast across the boundary, with a large area of daytime temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to middle 60s, there will be a narrow area to the south of the front that will break 70, and while there is a general low overcast on the cool side of the boundary, to the south there are breaks of sun, at least for a while, which can help boost temperatures even toward 80 in a few areas. During this time, a trough of low pressure will be moving in from the west, tossing plenty of cloudiness over the top of what’s occurring below, so eventually the entire region is overcast by a bit later. Other than a few pockets of light drizzle on the maritime side of the front, we’ll go through many hours of the day rain-free, until a batch of showers and possible embedded thunderstorms arrives from the west toward and into evening. I’m not expecting any severe storms, but some downpours are possible. This activity will push out of the area overnight. Tuesday, as a surface low pressure area cuts across central Maine then heads into southeastern Canada, we’ll get its wrap-around moisture in the form of abundant cloud cover and scattered showers, so look for another unsettled day that I had previously been more optimistic about. However, any rain drops we can get from this system will further help us in reducing the still ongoing drought. Finally, a ridge of high pressure will poke its way into New England and provides us with our pick of the week on Wednesday, a dry and mild day for the final full day of astronomical summer. On its heels comes a strong cold front which will sweep across the region during the morning hours Thursday, ushering in a cool Canadian air mass, the front accompanied by a band of showers and possible embedded thunderstorms, mostly in the pre-dawn hours, but may linger a bit into the daylight portion of morning for southern and eastern areas. The balance of Thursday will feature a gusty wind and a sun/cloud mix as the cooler, dry air rushes into the region. The autumnal equinox occurs that evening, so the arrival of the fall air mass will lead it by a number of hours – but generally right on cue. We’ll be in a northwesterly air flow of cool and dry air Friday with fair weather for the first full day of autumn.

TODAY: Breaks of sun MA South Coast to south central MA, RI, eastern CT, eventually clouding over there. Overcast elsewhere. Pockets of light drizzle possible especially eastern coastal areas. Showers arrive west to east later. Highs 58-65, coolest eastern shores, except a narrow band of 65-72 near frontal boundary and 73-80 to the south of it over southeastern CT, southwestern RI, and possibly the MA South Coast. Wind NE up to 10 MPH except S to SW 5-15 MPH on the warm side of the front.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely, especially evening, including possible thunderstorms. Lows 56-63. Wind NE-N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers, especially late morning on. Areas of fog early. Highs 66-73. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing but areas of ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 50-57. Wind NW up to 10 MPH early, diminishing to calm.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and a few clouds. Highs 70-77. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase from west to east. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm overnight / pre-dawn. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and possible thunderstorms NH Seacoast, eastern MA, and RI, early to mid morning. Otherwise, sun/cloud mix. Highs 67-74 early, then cooler. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 58-65, coolest in higher elevations. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

High pressure to the west of the region shifts to the south of the region during the course of the first full weekend of autumn September 24-25. Saturday’s a day with a chilly start, seasonably cool afternoon, and NW wind. Sunday’s a day with a cool start, mild afternoon, and W to SW breeze, but lighter than Saturday, but overall a great weekend for outdoor activity. Caution for any coastal plans (beach, fishing, boating): Rough surf and large ocean swells will occur due to the far offshore passage of Hurricane Fiona, but our weather pattern will keep this system from a more direct impact. Next trough and frontal system expected to bring unsettled weather to the region September 26, maybe into the next day, followed by another shot of cool/dry air with breezy conditions at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 29 – OCTOBER 3)

Expecting high pressure to dominate with mostly dry weather, below normal temperatures to wrap up September and a milder trend to start October.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-19-2022

The feel of summertime is back today as high pressure sits to our south. We’ll have sunshine but it will be filtered by high altitude smoke, giving a hazy look to the sky, in addition to some patches of high and mid level clouds, but the filtered sun will shine most of the day as temperatures shoot into the 80s in many places (70s South Coast) and dew points climb fairly quickly to the 60s as opposed to yesterday’s dry 40s – so you’ll feel it. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may appear in southern NH and possibly far northern MA this evening as a back-door cold front slides down from the north northeast. This front will move across the region overnight and come to a halt somewhere in the southwestern portion of the WHW forecast area, maybe not making it through southwestern RI and southeastern CT, setting up a potential large temperature contrast for Monday, ranging from the 60s to the lower 80s from northeast to southwest across the region. In addition, a disturbance from the west will be moving in with showers and thunderstorms developing and pushing into the region during the day, but most especially during the afternoon and evening hours. This system will be departing on Tuesday but enough instability will remain for the potential for pop up showers, so those have to be in the forecast as a possibility. High pressure will bring fair and mild weather on Wednesday before it shifts off to the southeast and a strong cold front moves through on Thursday, preceded by showers and possible thunderstorms, then ushering in the coolest air we’ve seen in quite a while just in time for the arrival of autumn (equinox occurs Thursday evening).

TODAY: Hazy (smoke-filtered) sunshine. Highs 80-87 but 70s South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially South Coast.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm, mainly across southern NH and possibly northeastern MA. Lows 58-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of showers and areas of fog, especially afternoon. Thunderstorms also possible, especially CT, RI, and interior MA. Highs 66-73 southern NH, eastern and central MA, and northeastern RI/CT, 74-81 southwestern RI and southeastern CT. Wind NE 5-15 MPH. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, mostly from the NE in the cooler areas, and S to SW in the warm zones.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely, especially evening, including possible thunderstorms favoring eastern areas of MA, southeastern NH, and RI. Lows 56-63. Wind NE-N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds break for sun at times but isolated to scattered showers are possible. Areas of fog early. Highs 66-73. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing but areas of ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 50-57. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and a few clouds. Highs 70-77. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase from west to east. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm overnight / pre-dawn. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and possible thunderstorms morning. Sun/cloudy mix midday-afternoon. Highs 67-74 early, then cooler. Wind SW shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)

Breezy/cool/dry weather September 23-24 with a large area of Canadian high pressure approaching and moving in via the Great Lakes. Milder September 25 as the high shifts to the east but may turn unsettled before the end of the weekend due to an approaching warm front from a system that will bring a cold front along and a shower threat through September 26. This should be followed by another shot of cool/breezy weather for the end of the period in a progressive pattern. Forecast Hurricane Fiona will likely remain out at sea well off the US East Coast but create rough surf.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

Indications are for high pressure to dominate with a dry stretch of weather to end September and start October, with cooler than normal temperatures early in the period followed by a moderating trend.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-18-2022

High pressure maintains control of the weather this weekend, which will have two distinctive personalities to its weather. Today is a dry day – dew point in the 40s, with a chilly early morning and a pleasantly mild afternoon, light wind, and bright sun mixed with patchy passing clouds as the center of high pressure moves from overhead to just south of the area. Sunday is going to bring the feel of summer back, humidity spiking with dew point rising to the 60s, a gusty southwesterly breeze with high pressure to the south, and plenty of sun but a hazier look to the sky due to another plume of high altitude smoke from western US wildfires. A cold front approaching from the north later Sunday may trigger enough instability so that we see an isolated shower or thunderstorm by evening across southern NH and a remote chance that one of these could wander into northeastern MA as well. As the front presses closer then passes through the region, a round of scattered showers should accompany it during the nighttime hours. Moisture arriving from the west as this front settles just south of the region will help to bring rounds of showers and much cooler weather for Monday, into Monday night as well. High pressure from the north is expected to push the unsettled weather to the south with improving conditions Tuesday, and then as the pattern progresses, the high will move over then south of the region with fair, mild weather for Wednesday.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70-77, coolest eastern shores. Wind W up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early then clearing. High altitude smoke arriving. Patchy ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 51-58. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Hazy (smoke-filtered) sunshine. Highs 80-87 but 70s South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially South Coast.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm, mainly across southern NH and possibly northeastern MA. Lows 58-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of showers and areas of fog, especially afternoon. Highs 65-72. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely, especially evening. Lows 56-63. Wind NE-N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds break for sun. Areas of fog early. Highs 66-73. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing but areas of ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 50-57. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and a few clouds. Highs 70-77. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)

There are changes and lots to keep track of during this period of time. First, a quick push of warm and humid air will be thwarted by a strong cold front sweeping across the region on the day of the autumnal equinox (Sep 22), and this front can bring a round of showers and possible thunderstorms, and definitely a gusty, shifting wind (timing of front to be determined). Coolest air in a while arrives behind front for September 23 and 24 as we have a gusty breeze on 9-23 then less wind the day following. High pressure shifts over then south of the region with a warm-up for the last couple days of this period, and eventually the possibility of showers as another front approaches. At the same time, we’ll be watching for Fiona somewhere off the US East Coast (likely quite far out to sea but close enough for impact via rough surf). Fiona, while battling adverse conditions currently, will be well beyond that and should be of hurricane strength when it makes its closest pass to our area, but kept offshore by that push of Canadian air.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)

The trends continue to be for another strong push of cool air from Canada arriving early in the period that may last several days with mainly dry weather conditions as well.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-17-2022

Today, I will try to bring the details of the upcoming weather changes into better focus than on the previous update. To start off, if you were up at sunrise today in the WHW forecast area you may have noticed “that hazy look” to the sky and the filtered nature of the rising sun. That, once again, is a plume of high altitude smoke that has made its way across the country from western wildfires. This smoke area will be in and out of our region over the coming days. Today it will give the sky the hazy look, especially early, before it starts to push off to the southeast and thin out, staying mostly to the south Saturday before coming back to the north Sunday and giving the sky a hazy appearance once again. We’ll see patches of high and mid level clouds in the sky at times on a northwesterly air flow today but most of these will be to the north. We’re still under the influence of Canadian high pressure with seasonable air, cool both this morning and Saturday morning with a modest warm-up this afternoon and a more noticeable one Saturday afternoon as the high center sinks to our south. With high pressure off to the south on Sunday we’ll get a push of warm and more humid air along with the hazier look to the sky from the smoke, giving it the feel of mid summer despite the lowering sun angle. In fact, we’re going to see about 20 degrees rise in dew point over the weekend as we go from the crisp 40s Saturday to the muggy 60s during Sunday. We’ll be keeping an eye on a frontal boundary to the north which will get a push southward, thanks to another area of high pressure in eastern Canada. I still think this boundary will stay far enough north to keep us warm through the daylight hours of Sunday. The boundary should then slip to the south during Sunday night and Monday while a disturbance arrives from the west at the same time. This will combine to bring a cool down and unsettled weather in the form of occasional rain Monday, especially in the afternoon and evening. The current timing indicates that drier air from the north and west will push this system out of the region on Tuesday, with improving weather at that time.

TODAY: Sun competes with patchy high and middle clouds mostly north, and high-altitude smoke all areas, especially morning through midday. Both clouds and smoke decrease with brighter sun for most of the afternoon. Highs 67-74. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

TONIGHT: Clear except patches of ground fog can form in lower elevations. Lows 45-52, coolest in valleys, swamps, and bogs. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog re-forming in some lower elevations. Lows 51-58. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm, mainly across southern NH and possibly northeastern MA. Lows 58-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain and areas of fog, especially afternoon. Highs 65-72. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Periods of rain, especially evening. Lows 56-63. Wind NE-N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds break for sun. Areas of fog early. Highs 66-73. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

High pressure brings dry weather for the last full day of summer 2022. Watching for a strong cold front to pass by sometime on the day of the autumnal equinox – September 22 – with a warm push ahead of it, a shower and thunderstorm threat along it, and a wind shift and a push of much cooler / dry air behind it. The timing will have to be tweaked, obviously. Fair weather and below normal temperatures follow it with a warm-up at the very end of this period as high pressure from Canada will then have shifted to the south of the region in a progressive weather pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

Medium range forecasts during the peak of hurricane season are always tricky and especially when there is the possibility that a storm will be at least in the general vicinity of the part of the world you are living in. Such is the case here. Fiona, which as a tropical storm will be continuing to battle wind shear, dry air, and eventually mountains, will struggle as it goes into and through the Caribbean in the days ahead. Beyond that, the track and any restrengthening become less certain to determine, but the most likely scenario based on the anticipated weather pattern is that the system ends up somewhere off the US East Coast by the final days of September, at least increasing our surf along the coast. We’ll obviously have to watch for a more direct impact, but my earliest thoughts are that we will be seeing yet another strong push from a Canadian air mass and high pressure area that will be preceded by unsettled weather and followed by a shot of cool/dry air here, keeping any tropical systems from reaching the region. Obviously, you can’t make this kind of forecast in the 11-15 day range with high confidence, so there will be a lot of monitoring to be done in the days ahead.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-16-2022

A cool, dry air flow between Canadian Maritime low pressure and east central Canada high pressure continues today into Friday but the gusty breeze we have will settle back on Friday as the high center moves closer. This high will then move right across the region early in the weekend before settling to the south of our region and allowing a warm-up to take place. For now it still looks like Canadian high pressure will not be strong enough to push another front our way before the end of Sunday, but that boundary will probably be in the region and combine with moisture from the west to bring unsettled weather to the region by Monday.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches low elevations. Lows 45-52. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 51-58. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 70-77. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)

Unsettled weather may linger into September 20 with a frontal boundary nearby before dry weather and above normal temperatures return for the final hours of summer. Watching for a Canadian cold front to drop through later in the period with a switch to cooler air but uncertain on the timing.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)

Overall pattern looks fairly dry and there may be 1 or 2 shots of cool air from Canada in a pattern of variable temperatures. Also need to watch potential offshore tropical cyclone activity for at least increased surf.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-15-2022

Low pressure in the Canadian Maritime Provinces and high pressure in east central Canada combine to deliver a much drier air mass to our region. It will start out on the mild side today, but with the help of a secondary cold front coming through the region early Thursday, we’ll see slightly below normal temperatures for Thursday and Friday, along with a gusty breeze, especially Thursday. The wind will ease as the center of high pressure moves closer to and eventually over the region during Friday. The high then slips off to the south allowing for a warm-up and continued dry weather into the weekend. After a cool Saturday morning start, we’ll warm nicely. Sunday presents a bit of a wild-card and some uncertainty as another high pressure area will be in eastern Canada and between that one and the one to our south will be a frontal boundary. This front may slip southward across our region during Sunday and its timing will be a determining factor in Sunday’s weather – both temperature and cloud cover. For now, going with a slower timing, a warmer day with a sun/cloud mix with the boundary staying to the north during the day, but confidence in this is not high 5 days in advance so follow updates as we get closer to this.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts up to 25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW, a few higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches low elevations. Lows 45-52. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 51-58. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)

With a frontal boundary nearby and a disturbance coming from the west we start next week with a possibility of unsettled weather and an uncertain temperature forecast with possibly a wide range from north to south 9-19. The forecast for this day can be fine-tuned as we approach the weekend. After this, high pressure is expected to be in control with dry weather and temperatures warming to above normal for the final few days of summer and possibly the first full day of autumn, depending on the timing of the next air mass change. Long way out – long time to figure out details.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

Overall pattern looks fairly dry and there may be 1 or 2 shots of cool air from Canada in a pattern of variable temperatures.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-14-2022